Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

A
Apologies if this has already been linked:

Warren thinks Musk is going after BI and try to sue them out of business. Maybe LATimes and NYTimes, too.

That's pretty far-fetched. But I would love for Musk to prove me wrong once again!

 

[heltok]

Seeing conflicting reports about Shanghai. Don’t know if FUD, or if everything is at this point.

Unfortunately, China needs to back off of Zero COVID policy or this will not go away.

CAN SO SOMEONE PLEASE HAND THE CCP A GOOD EXCUSE AND A WAY OUT TO SAVE FACE OVER THIS NONSENSE? THANK YOU!

They will never be able to contain it 100%. Especially not with vaccines that are maybe 50% effective at this point.

The problem is that Zero covid seems to be working:

As covid has been getting increasingly transmissible, China has become increasingly good at combatting it. Omicron outbreak has been the worst, and restrictions have been very seriously, but the restrictions are working. They are testing everyone every 3days in some areas, locking down entire areas when they have a case, mask extensively and have a very effective contact tracing system allowing them to start to open up many areas. Their new dynamic zero covid seems to actually be effective. They will probably ease restrictions somewhat and slow down the decrease in cases somewhat, but imo it seems likely that they will still be able to have cases come down to close to pre omicron levels.

Wrt Tesla, the big risk is if Tesla Shanghai gets unlucky and have a case and have to shut down. And this can happen anytime. I see it as likely that China will keep zero covid for the rest of the year, maybe all of next year also. So I expect turbulent times for Giga Shanghai, sometimes full steam ahead, sometimes hard lockdowns.

 

[LodiEVFan]

I have spoken to many Tesla owners over the past 3 years and I have found that the reason for buying a Tesla falls into one or more of the following categories:

Climate Champion: Getting off fossil fuels
Performance Enthusiast: 0-60mph in under 2 seconds, instant acceleration, etc
Technophile: Touch Screen, Voice commands, mobile app, OTA updates, FSD, etc
Budget Minded: No gasoline costs, no oil changes, etc

Tesla cars appeal to many people from different walks of life. My 91 year old Father in Law can't stop talking about how awesome my wife's Model Y is.
The technology blows him away (he's a huge iPad user). He's always in the back seat asking us to engage autopilot and FSD.

I have a 30 min commute that I do about once a month from Connecticut to New York. In 2019, I would count 1 maybe 2 Tesla's on the road.
Last week I counted 21 on that 30 min ride.

I don't fit any of those categories. I am a 79 year old conservative who hates OPEC/Big Oil and loves efficiency.

Where I live I used to rarely see Teslas. Now I see at least a few every time I drive around town.

 

[gene]

I was in a predicament. I just did not want to sell TSLA for the repairs on my car with the stock price the way it is. Thankfully, I could scrape just enough together to pay for the repairs without selling TSLA. It does mean that we have to eat pasta, rice and beans for the coming weeks - but so be it. Relieved how It turned out. Hope stock price recovers soon.

Pasta, rice, and beans is all I eat anyways!

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm a huge fan of my model 3's, but wouldn't fit into any of your four categories. Yes, I can appreciate all four, as nice-to-haves, but none of them drove my purchase, which was just the simplicity of an EV.

The simplicity is one of my favorite advantages as well. I love the way I can just walk up, get in, and drive. No clicking key fobs, pushing start buttons, taking off parking brakes, etc., it clutters the unconscious side of the mind.

btw: 'budget-minded' is kind of a stretch, since an electrified version of an ICE costs xx thousands more up-front, so the savings (gasoline, oil changes) payback is years for most folks.

Budget minded folks are not strangers to making good long-term financial decisions. When I hear people decline to get residential solar because they say the payback period is 10 years, I say, "So what?" If it pays for itself and then some, that's a good deal! EV's are the same way. You might not come out ahead until the day you finally sell it a few years down the road, but ahead is ahead, right?

If you combine the performance advantages of a P3D to ICE cars with similar performance with the budget advantages of 100 plus e-mpg and no service visits, the payback is immediate. The P3D is a relatively low-cost, high performance car with unmatched operating cost efficiencies for that level of performance. I can say a similar thing about my wife's rear wheel drive LR Model 3. Even owning an AWD Performance Model 3, her RWD Long-Range still blows me away with how fast it is in real world conditions and how well it handles. Neither Model 3 is a racing car but, for regular production cars it's hard to beat the price/performance ratio.

And budget minded people like performance too, if it comes at a reasonable cost!

 

[madodel]

I have spoken to many Tesla owners over the past 3 years and I have found that the reason for buying a Tesla falls into one or more of the following categories:

Climate Champion: Getting off fossil fuels
Performance Enthusiast: 0-60mph in under 2 seconds, instant acceleration, etc
Technophile: Touch Screen, Voice commands, mobile app, OTA updates, FSD, etc
Budget Minded: No gasoline costs, no oil changes, etc

Tesla cars appeal to many people from different walks of life. My 91 year old Father in Law can't stop talking about how awesome my wife's Model Y is.
The technology blows him away (he's a huge iPad user). He's always in the back seat asking us to engage autopilot and FSD.

I have a 30 min commute that I do about once a month from Connecticut to New York. In 2019, I would count 1 maybe 2 Tesla's on the road.
Last week I counted 21 on that 30 min ride.

Teslas here in Northeast Pennsylvania are a common sight now even though there is no Tesla service center anywhere near here. When I got my X six years ago I only knew of 1 other Tesla in my county and it was extremely rare to see any Tesla around here, and they were usually tourists from NY or Jesey. Now I see them every day when I'm out and about. It isn't like Cali since this is not urban, but more Appalachia, but it's still great to see. I think I mentioned a couple weeks ago that when I was in Mannheim Germany, the birthplace of Mercedes, visiting my daughter she mentioned that over the past couple months she has been seeing more and more Teslas, especially Ys.

 

[2Pearls]

Everything weighing on the stock right now will pass. Long term fundamentals remain incredibly strong.

Except for one thing. The Brand. A year ago, Tesla's brand value was right up there with Coke and Apple. Brand value may be slipping and that's the one thing in the current circus that could have a lasting impact.

Elon has talked about the possiblility of doing some "awareness" type advertising. Now might be a good time to start.

What you state about the Tesla brand deserves multiple thumbs UP. We can love Tesla and Elon all we want, but we are just a few who are more than casual observers and understand what Tesla offers and understand how undervalued it is, however, 98% of the worlds only sees this sh** show playing out in real time and will question what Tesla really brings to the table...they see plenty of other EV’s out there and might not understand the big differences that separate Tesla from all others. So, perception IS reality and once you lose the shine of your brand, people who have ordered start cancelling because they don’t want to be associated with what is currently happening. WE get it, but we are much more “invested” than the average person who can change their mind quickly based on their perception of what is currently happening. We have a year long backlog presently, let’s see in 3-6 months how this plays out. Holding but concerned!

 

[Boomer19]

I don't know what percentage of Tesla buyers sell TSLA stock to purchase their cars, but I would assume, with the stock price in the crapper, there will be a much higher than normal rate of purchase cancellations. People who were going to sell TSLA shares to purchase will wait for a better deal before they sell their shares to replace their car.

on the other hand, i assisted a couple new buyers (who don’t own the stock, and don’t follow or care much about anything elon says on twitter or elsewhere). they’ll be ordering (and waiting for) Ys, while my other friend has a 3 on wait.

not that i interpret your post as a demand concern…but for the worryworts, we still have plenty a ways to go before a down market, or the potential of this particular recession, really hurt tesla sales. it’s actually good timing for them to have to go through this now, given their current state vs the state of others. imagine if this was the landscape in may 2018?

and as far as the topic of “his behavior”, which many lately seem to worry about, that doesn’t have an effect on demand at this time either. maybe in the distant future,
when market is saturated, but not now. you think people are going to give a damn 5 weeks from now let alone 5-10 years from now? really? in this 15 min world we live in?

as a stakeholder i just hope he can still find time to take a bit of R&R, clear and reprioritize his head, and stay focused on what he thinks he needs to.

 

[Stretch2727]

Everything weighing on the stock right now will pass. Long term fundamentals remain incredibly strong.

Except for one thing. The Brand. A year ago, Tesla's brand value was right up there with Coke and Apple. Brand value may be slipping and that's the one thing in the current circus that could have a lasting impact.

Elon has talked about the possiblility of doing some "awareness" type advertising. Now might be a good time to start.

Why, so customer can wait even longer for their car.

I find it silly to advertise to try to offset Elon's antics. If you don't like Elon to the point of refusing to buy the product no amount of advertising will likely counter this.

 

[Carl Raymond]

A heads up that Australia has a federal election a week from today. Early signs are that there will be a change of government. If that happens, new policy will benefit Tesla. More renewables, more storage, measures to promote EVs.

There are a number of independent candidates running in conservative seats on climate action platforms. This is a first. A possibility is that these people end up holding the balance of power, European style. Watch for a “hung parliament” headline. If this happens we get climate action on steroids, with no mercy shown to fossil fuel interests. Fingers crossed. Such a result would also be a sign of the times, echoing around the world. That world would belong to (sustainable energy companies like) Tesla.

Update: As forecast, Australia has a new Labor govt. Real action on climate change is promised. The outgoing coalition were trounced, primarily because of their lightweight climate policies. Sends a clear signal to other nations. Get serious or go.
The hope of independents holding the balance still a slim chance, however if just 5 of the 19 “too close to call” seats fall to the new Labor govt they will rule solus.
All told, a great win for clean energy.

 

[StealthP3D]

Thank you for your insight.

I took it slightly different. Elon "recruiting" lawyers via twitter isn't really going to happen. Instead, I think it was a thinly-veiled threat to anyone that has plans to smear him, Telsa, SpaceX, etc. that the gloves are coming off. The gauntlet has been thrown down.

Sure, he may get a few great applicants from the tweet, but I would bet he gets a lot more "junkyard bulldog" firms hitting him up offering to be put on retainer.

EDIT - and anyone considering suing him is going to remember that tweet - don't F with Elon unless you can really bring the goods to win.

I agree but think his "recruiting lawyers" tweet is a multi-pronged strategy. The other part of it is actually to get a highly cost-effective legal team by encouraging more young, bright little-known legal minds to join the team. Head council doesn't know all the great lawyers in the world, just the ones who have already made a name for themselves and would only join for a very high salary. Additionally, recruiting works best when the one who is recruited thinks it was his or her idea to join Tesla, not from a cold call. You have to plant the seeds to harvest the flowers.

Boy, I think that's the first time I've referred to lawyers as "flowers"!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Saying someone acted like a human is entirely different from saying they acted emotionally and irrationally.

While it's true that normal humans have emotions and act irrationally sometimes, saying someone is emotional and irrational (or that certain actions were that) implies more emotional or irrational than is typical for average humans. Elon is not more emotional or irrational than most people. If anything, he is more rational and his actions are driven more by rational thought and less by uncontrolled emotions. That is one strong reason why he is so successful.

But these facts don't stop an army of detractors from trying to portray him as excessively emotional and irrational.

The one thing I have realized by lurking on Twitter is that most of users are simplistic in their way to categorize Musk.
Haters/FUDsters call him a liar because he was not right about the timeline of FSD so he must be lying when denying the harassment accusation. Then they say Tesla had government loan initially so now that they have money it’s only because of govt bailout funds.

Their reasoning is so dicotomic. Classifying Elon as Evil and trying to associate any wrong doing to his whole person like he has been hiding he is a supervillain for years. People can’t just appreciate the effort he had to put to keep his civilization changing companies afloat. The guy risked it all, he works 16h+ day/7 a week no vacation and there is a bunch repeating the echo chamber of Elon being a fraudster and repeating non sense. I like to think these are Twitter bots because if this non sense is spread by humans, we must be heading to our lost in a Mad Max Fury Road dystopian future.

 

[MikeC]

Another income stream one step closer in development. I could see whole Tesla mall entertainment complexes being built around mass Supercharging in the future.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528154969123213312

 

[GOVA]

A gem of all gems, Oliver Stone interviewed by Lex Fridman mostly about Nuclear Power and a few other good things. He has made a new documentary about it as well.

 

[phantasms]

Tesla.com appears to be down.

EDIT: appears to be back up now. It wasn’t just me I swear. lol. Downforeveryone… site confirmed it.

Let’s hope it’s A: A major update spilling all the new goods.

And not B: Elon said to take it down because they have enough orders.

And definitely not C: Server error that Elon blames on “Killary”.


PS the best website is no website.

 

[AudubonB]

I’m happy - really, truly, I am - to have found the most recent dozen or so pages to be far less disheartening to read than most of what showed up here all week. Keep up the good work, every*one!

Re the photo of the IDRA 9000: I didn’t learn whether that was in Austin, Grunheide, Shanghai, Fremont or Alaska. Any evidence for where it is being assembled?

*99.44% +/- 0.56%, says the precision fanatic.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have friends that run the political gamut. One thing all of them have in common is they all like to ski and/or hike and/or drink beer/whiskey and/or coffee, I have a couple of "weird" friends that like to drink wine but even that is not based on political identity, LOL!

If I have any "pools of friends" they are thankfully not based on political identity. Political identity is over-rated as a dividing line.

Friends are over-rated.

 

[StealthP3D]

The one thing I have realized by lurking on Twitter is that most of users are simplistic in their way to categorize Musk.

I know what you mean, it's almost like most of the comments about Musk were written by hateful computers programmed to say bad things about him.

....errr, wait...

Seriously, never underestimate the number of AI bots making comments or their ability to make you think they represent a real person on the other side. Their job is to make people think Musk is an unlikeable guy that has done nothing special and is greedy, egotistical and lacking moral character.

I personally believe AI bot comments about Musk are more numerous than negative comments written by real people.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Latest beta build with Rob M is a step change, Tesla Ai is growing up well. I can now see it may be ready to be out to the real world by next year. Tears, so proud.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It sounds to me like the exiting legal team will focus on defense while the litigation team will be like attack dogs focusing on initiating lawsuits.

Good. I hope one of the 1st lawsuits they bring is against that Florida lawyer who tweeted out to her followers on May 1, 2022 to "STOP buying Teslas".

Pam Keith, Esq. on Twitter: "Dear America: STOP buying Teslas ... twitter.com › PamKeithFL › status​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520908986341548033