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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Some people recently asked what Tesla is going to do with all its cash. Some proposed a stock buyback.

I think right now they are mostly accumulating a safety buffer of extra cash for insurance in case of an economic downturn. But once that buffer increases a bit more, I think they’ll reinvest profits into these things:

1. More factories.

2. Continued battery research (small piece, admittedly).

3. Solar and storage for as many Superchargers as possible, as has been the plan for about a decade (but still is only implemented in a few places).

4. Continued Supercharger rollout.

5. Self-funding for insurance and financing arms.

6. R&D and investment in mining so Tesla can increase access to raw battery materials and accelerate production.

Any or all of the above uses of cash would have positive returns on investment, advance the mission, and serve as a revenue multiplier, which is why a stock buyback, in my opinion, would not be the best use of money.

Tesla still has a LOT of things they can wisely spend a lot of their money on.
No one ever mentions optimus. Labor is the single biggest rate limiting step for Tesla to scale up to 20 million cars. Elon urges developers to build more houses because it's difficult to find people willing to work when housing prices explode next to every giga factory due to the amount of people needed to build products.

So more giga factories = empty boxes if there's a shortage to labor. Optimus is perhaps one of the top priorities that everyone thinks it's some kind of pet project.
 
Chuck Cook’s initial 10.12.1 ride was not good at all. Almost seems like his car needed a reboot.

10.12.2 is going wider now though, and it supposedly fixes the “take over immediately” issue Chuck was having (hopefully the turn right only bug too, which has returned from previous versions).

FSD Beta 10.12
There are people speculating Chuck needs to re-calibrate his cameras after his car was repaired. It's not clear if Chuck has tried that yet before further testing.
 
Some people recently asked what Tesla is going to do with all its cash. Some proposed a stock buyback.

I think right now they are mostly accumulating a safety buffer of extra cash for insurance in case of an economic downturn. But once that buffer increases a bit more, I think they’ll reinvest profits into these things:

1. More factories.

2. Continued battery research (small piece, admittedly).

3. Solar and storage for as many Superchargers as possible, as has been the plan for about a decade (but still is only implemented in a few places).

4. Continued Supercharger rollout.

5. Self-funding for insurance and financing arms.

6. R&D and investment in mining so Tesla can increase access to raw battery materials and accelerate production.

Any or all of the above uses of cash would have positive returns on investment, advance the mission, and serve as a revenue multiplier, which is why a stock buyback, in my opinion, would not be the best use of money.

Tesla still has a LOT of things they can wisely spend a lot of their money on.
3 & 4. Supercharger coverage in the US still leaves a lot to be desired. Maybe Tesla was waiting to see the extent of the federal buildout proposal, but they shouldn’t wait any longer. In addition to solar and storage:

1) expansion into lower population-density regions (@AudubonB)
2) better lighting/security - there have reports of vandalism at several superchargers
3) upgrades to Kettleman City-style lounge configurations in more locations

Superchargers could follow the typical Tesla boot-strapping strategy: basic no-frills utilitarian coverage followed by investment in self-sufficiency through integration with Tesla Energy. That should unlock some down-stream profitability. Then upgrade the user experience via Starlink and mini-lounges.
 
My second of two comments regarding # of shares poll:

I would be fascinated as to how another poster “knows” no one answered dishonestly to his poll. Mesmerized, in fact.

I know enough about enough of this group’s large holders to have an excellent idea how many have participated in prior such quests, and a very good idea how they may respond in the future. As I wrote: Not At All.

To me, then, these attempts are fatally flawed from the outset. But leaving all that aside, what useful purpose does it accomplish?
It's called indicative analysis. Not claiming to be exact, just an estimate based on data.

With all due respect, @AudubonB , I'll take data-driven estimates over the 80% of posts here (see? another unsubstantiated WAG) that are opinions with no foundation in fact - notable exceptions IMHO are @The Accountant @Artful Dodger @Gigapress @jbcarioca (I'm forgetting others) who always provide evidence / sources for their assumptions. Opinions are informative and I like reading most of our opinions here. They're just not necessarily an improvement over data-driven estimates. If you could give evidence for your "I know enough" statements, we're all ears. Otherwise, please don't fault me and @ZeApelido for trying.
 
I think many countries have high taxes on fossil fuels, In Norway 1 litre diesel is about 2.2 euros now, maybe 10% more for gasoline.

ICE cars have 25% tax, EVs have 0%.

The problem is MANY countries still give incredible tax breaks to oil producers.

These are just those for the USA (and they are enormous):

No such equivalent exists for renewables.
 
Ironically, the entire site is powered by a diesel generator. But even then, a Tesla is still cleaner than burning fuel in an ICE car.
I'm not sure of that. If the diesel was used in a vehicle the fuel would be directly powering vehicle motion, in the generator it's charging a battery with some efficiency loss and then powering the inverter/motor with some efficiency loss.
 
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Reactions: Thumper and UCF3
Whenever - whenEVER - I find a post that is noteworthy, and another participant has not already enunciated that which I find commendable, I comment on it. I do not use lazy tags like “Like!” “Funny!””Disagree” and so forth - mindless drivel that is Twitterworthy. Nor - as already bombed into submission by another Mod - a “+1” and so forth.
I disagree that it's lazy (with the exception of the disagree button--if you disagree, you should say why). It's time saving. It's already hard to keep up with every post, let alone if everyone wrote a response to each post.
 
I have read an interesting book recently Entitlemania from Richard Watts. Leaving a big lump slump to financial unprepared kids might be a generation destroying event. He was comparing to opening a dam for habitants living down the stream near the river. Kids might lose intrinsic motivation for work and extrinsic motivation to succeed to accomplish their own successful careers or companies because they don’t need to do so anymore. The author tells about one of his clients who set up a thrust fund that kids can only access at 60 years old and receive the equivalent of the annual average of their 3 last years of work. This was the inherited money doesn’t destroy their motivation to live their own life, learn from their mistake and create successful stories of their own to be proud of their life achievements. The pride of paying yourself cash for your first car,
House or any luxury item is not transferable. Kids have to work their way out in life to be proud of what they own or have achieved. Interesting concepts he is visiting throughout his book.
This is good stuff but I think that investing for kids was referring to the planetary inheritance, not financial.
 
The problem is MANY countries still give incredible tax breaks to oil producers.

These are just those for the USA (and they are enormous):

No such equivalent exists for renewables.
Renewables do have tax incentives in the USA.


“The federal tax incentives, or credits, for qualifying renewable energy projects or equipment include the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), the Residential Energy Credit, and the Modified Accelerated Cost-Recovery System (MACRS). Grant and loan programs may be available from several government agencies, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the U.S. Department of the Interior. Most states have some financial incentives available to support or subsidize the installation of renewable energy equipment.”

It’s not exactly the same as oil & gas subsidies and I’m not sure if they add up to more or less total subsidy per megajoule but there are solar and wind subsidies.
 
Renewables do have tax incentives in the USA.


“The federal tax incentives, or credits, for qualifying renewable energy projects or equipment include the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), the Residential Energy Credit, and the Modified Accelerated Cost-Recovery System (MACRS). Grant and loan programs may be available from several government agencies, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the U.S. Department of the Interior. Most states have some financial incentives available to support or subsidize the installation of renewable energy equipment.”

It’s not exactly the same as oil & gas subsidies and I’m not sure if they add up to more or less total subsidy per megajoule but there are solar and wind subsidies.

If memory serves, they are a lot less. For example, if you own land on which oil/gas extraction is occurring, you can lop 15% off your tax bill for those profits right from the get go. Then there are often loopholes that allow you to claim the property value is pretty much nil, and not have to pay property taxes on it.

Those are two just off the top of my head.

Another link to savings here:

The renewable credits pale greatly in comparison.
 
dnyuz.com

Meet the Reclusive Software Billionaire Attacking Elon Musk

“Trillion-Dollar Ponzi Scheme.” “Deep Flaws.” “Unsafe.” The television ads for Dan O’Dowd, a software billionaire running as a Democrat.


What is this person’s agenda? He claims his company has nothing to do with FSD. Does he fear all his customers going bankrupt in competition?

He seems to have impressive credentials in the field that lends weight to his opinions. And yet:

“The software that drives cars that are going to have millions of people depending on it should be our best software, the most carefully designed and tested software,” he said. “Instead we’re using literally the worst software.”

Is it as simple as letting the perfect be the enemy of the good?

And why do these articles never include any data outside of anecdotal?

“The New York Times has reported extensively on the shortcomings of Musk’s push for fully autonomous cars, including in a recent documentary film.

In February, Tesla recalled 54,000 of its cars to disable a feature of its software that allowed the vehicles to make rolling stops in some cases. There are entire websites devoted to documenting deaths involving Teslas, including those where driver-assistance features were proved to have been involved.”

Does anyone really believe with the current state of affairs that if Tesla did not produce prodigious evidence on demand of the safety of the system vs. average human driver that the whole system would not have been shut down already by regulators?
 
Has Solar Roof increased in price? I just got quoted $40k where as I was getting quoted $23k only 1-2 months ago.
I know the referral bonus went down from 500 to 300.

Solar roof for my house quote is 92k after incentive.
I got a quote from tile roof company and the quote was 78k. If I were to add solar then it's another 22k after incentives so the solar roof is still a deal, especially it comes with a 25 year warranty vs 5 years.

With that being said our HOA will never approve a solar roof as everyone around me gets tile. Also I'm at a golf ball drop zone.
 
dnyuz.com

Meet the Reclusive Software Billionaire Attacking Elon Musk

“Trillion-Dollar Ponzi Scheme.” “Deep Flaws.” “Unsafe.” The television ads for Dan O’Dowd, a software billionaire running as a Democrat.


What is this person’s agenda? He claims his company has nothing to do with FSD. Does he fear all his customers going bankrupt in competition?

He seems to have impressive credentials in the field that lends weight to his opinions. And yet:

“The software that drives cars that are going to have millions of people depending on it should be our best software, the most carefully designed and tested software,” he said. “Instead we’re using literally the worst software.”

Is it as simple as letting the perfect be the enemy of the good?

And why do these articles never include any data outside of anecdotal?

“The New York Times has reported extensively on the shortcomings of Musk’s push for fully autonomous cars, including in a recent documentary film.

In February, Tesla recalled 54,000 of its cars to disable a feature of its software that allowed the vehicles to make rolling stops in some cases. There are entire websites devoted to documenting deaths involving Teslas, including those where driver-assistance features were proved to have been involved.”

Does anyone really believe with the current state of affairs that if Tesla did not produce prodigious evidence on demand of the safety of the system vs. average human driver that the whole system would not have been shut down already by regulators?

If memory serves, his company writes the software for the mobileeye hardware, which companies like GM are using for their Cruise.

It's a direct competitor to FSD, and he's using the cover of "running for political office" to fire off a bunch of ads that normally would get him sued by Tesla and Musk.


Most of his ads, ironically, were taken down because they took footage from youtube, and the youtubers sent DCMA copyright takedown notices pretty much instantly. Karma.
 
dnyuz.com

Meet the Reclusive Software Billionaire Attacking Elon Musk

“Trillion-Dollar Ponzi Scheme.” “Deep Flaws.” “Unsafe.” The television ads for Dan O’Dowd, a software billionaire running as a Democrat.


What is this person’s agenda? He claims his company has nothing to do with FSD. Does he fear all his customers going bankrupt in competition?

He seems to have impressive credentials in the field that lends weight to his opinions. And yet:

“The software that drives cars that are going to have millions of people depending on it should be our best software, the most carefully designed and tested software,” he said. “Instead we’re using literally the worst software.”

Is it as simple as letting the perfect be the enemy of the good?

And why do these articles never include any data outside of anecdotal?

“The New York Times has reported extensively on the shortcomings of Musk’s push for fully autonomous cars, including in a recent documentary film.

In February, Tesla recalled 54,000 of its cars to disable a feature of its software that allowed the vehicles to make rolling stops in some cases. There are entire websites devoted to documenting deaths involving Teslas, including those where driver-assistance features were proved to have been involved.”

Does anyone really believe with the current state of affairs that if Tesla did not produce prodigious evidence on demand of the safety of the system vs. average human driver that the whole system would not have been shut down already by regulators?
Zero accidents thus far has demonstrated that human-supervised FSD Beta is at least 500x safer than the average human, conservatively assuming the average beta tester has done only 1k miles on Beta since most testers were added recently.

If you want to estimate 5k miles per tester thus far, the safety is then at least 2500x safer than the average human.

I need to say “at least”, because:
  • With zero crashes we can only have a one-sided confidence interval for the true probability of collisions
    • E.g. Collision probability of 1 in a billion miles and in 1 in a trillion miles both would likely have shown zero accidents in a 100M mile sample.
  • FSD Beta has been significantly improving over the time the sample was collected, so we’re estimating a moving target which moves because of the same process that generates the measurement data.
the FSD Beta program, which now has over 100,000 users, has had zero collisions thus far even though they’ve probably driven cumulatively over 100 million miles by now. Amazing!
  • The nationwide average is approximately 1 crash every 200k miles, indicating that human-supervised FSD Beta has reduced the probability of collisions by a factor of at least 500 relative to the average American driver!!!
If each one of the 100k FSD Beta drivers has averaged at least 2 miles on Beta and if Beta were truly more dangerous than human driving, we’d expect to have seen a crash by now. If it’s soooo dangerous, where are all the injuries and deaths?

This is hard, indisputable evidence that these safety criticisms have no basis in reality and whoever publishes them either has no idea how to do basic statistics or has a malicious agenda.

Unfortunately, there are many people who don’t know basic statistics (or at least forget to think about them when confronted with emotionally-triggering anecdotes) and the smart malicious people are well aware of this fact.
 
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What is this person’s agenda?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on the advertisement with a tweet that said, "Green Hills software is a pile of trash. Linux ftw," and agreed with a comment that Full Self-Driving critics "always have a huge financial interest in a competing solution."
 
Zero accidents thus far has demonstrated that human-supervised FSD Beta is at least 500x safer than the average human, conservatively assuming the average beta tester has done only 1k miles on Beta since most testers were added recently.

If you want to estimate 5k miles per tester thus far, the safety is then at least 2500x safer than the average human.

I need to say “at least”, because:
  • With zero crashes we can only have a one-sided confidence interval for the true probability of collisions
    • E.g. Collision probability of 1 in a billion miles and in 1 in a trillion miles both would likely have shown zero accidents in a 100M mile sample.
  • FSD Beta has been significantly improving over the time the sample was collected, so we’re estimating a moving target which moves because of the same process that generates the measurement data.

If each one of the 100k FSD Beta drivers has averaged at least 2 miles on Beta and if Beta were truly more dangerous than human driving, we’d expect to have seen a crash by now. If it’s soooo dangerous, where are all the injuries and deaths?

This is hard, indisputable evidence that these safety criticisms have no basis in reality and whoever publishes them either has no idea how to do basic statistics or has a malicious agenda.

Unfortunately, there are many people who don’t know basic statistics (or at least forget to think about them when confronted with emotionally-triggering anecdotes) and the smart malicious people are well aware of this fact.

Your first statement is incorrect. But even if it were true, there's only been no accidents because a human driver is needed to monitor and intervene.

You are making a definitive based on faulty assumptions. There's simply no way to compare the safety of FSD to a human driver unless you just let FSD run unsupervised and uninterrupted.
 
The best explanation about global warming Elon did was IMHO at this 2015 talk* -(or search YouTube for "Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne") -with this graphic explanation Elon aptly calls "the turd in the punchbowl", how introducing huge amounts of carbon extracted from underground completely upset the CO2 balance that had existed for millenia on earth. And what governments need to do in order to facilitate the transition to sustainable energy. What of course no government has done so far (correct me if I am wrong), which is to price the externality, put a proper price on carbon. Thus removing the hidden Trillion $ subsidy for fossil fuels.

Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 - Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

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Elon Musk talk at the Sorbonne 2015 Conversation avec Elon Musk à Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne


(*) altho now that I think about it, it may not be understood by some (considering my experience talkgin with run of the mill folks, some, like literary types do have a problem understanding concepts however obvious they seem to more science aware folks).
If there is a frustration on my part with that talk, it is that we knew precisely everything presented therein during early 1980s graduate school, and all of the concepts plus much of the details in undergrad in the late 1970s. That was a dozen - or even more! - years ago.

How anyone could provide a “Disagree” to your post is mind-boggling, unless it is because someone sensed condescension toward “literary types”, or calling others “run of the mill”. Eggshell-walking in this forum sometimes is good advice. But it also shows why I am strident in my calls NOT TO USE that downward thumb icon! Without a real post, no one knows why another finds disagreement with his posting.