Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

So true! And, even then, it's just a burger with lettuce and slice of flavorless tomato between the buns. Almost a nothing-burger from a Tesla-centric point of view.

I disagree because it narrows the gap between the Tesla entertainment experience and what other car manufacturer's can offer. I watched the WWDC video yesterday and I thought it looked really compelling. Not enough to get rid of my Tesla though. CarPlay is far more customizable too, which is nice.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Looks like just the wiper arm with the wiper blade removed. Or maybe the wiper blade extends when in use.


View attachment 813689

Wild guess warning!!! Folds (or telescopes out) as a double or triple wiper. Swim motion like a frog's leg? How would a wiper wipe if make through AI design, like some prehistoric animal? I bet (small) that they took the AI route and this thing's gonna surprise us all. There's just too much interest on a freaking wiper blade for this to be stupid, let's put it that way.

(Edit - Further, if I were a WiperSmith, I'd be sure every corner was cleaned... somehow.)

 

[Oveeus]

CarPlay runs on the iPhone, so they just write their apps to run on iOS. The screens in car are just output devices (ie fancy monitors).

See CarPlay - Apple Developer for more info

I think it is a pretty smart strategy and will quickly let other auto manufacturers have entertainment experiences that rival Tesla instead of the junk they have now. We have two cars that support CarPlay and I like it. My wife and son use it exclusively, so all the software the OEMs wrote are a waste of their time and money.

Tesla's experience is really good too, and it is possible they could have an SDK and license it out as a competitor to CarPlay with FSD, or a subset of FSD.

I know it runs on iPhone. I'm saying CarPlay's experience would always be limited if they didn't integrate with the car. If all the car is offering is some input data and the screen for the iPhone... then, there isn't much to do as the access from the phone to car is very limited and subject to what carmaker decide to make accessible to the CarPlay API.

And as every carmaker's decision on data access would vary, then what CarPlay can do would ultimately vary. There must be a pre-determined set of rules for any eco-system to thrive. Then, whoever decides to join the game can go creative within the game rules.

I don't see Apple setting the rules for any carmaker willing to integrate CarPlay into their cars. Therefore, I can't foresee it becoming anything more than a gimmick, just like when it was first announced. Same thing with AndroidAuto... they would never become a big thing until they decide to work with automakers to ensure certain aspect of hardware/software is met.

 

[thesmokingman]

I think they would be fine w/o having to deal with software. They make their money on service, not software. Many are jumping on CarPlay bandwagon, which suggests they don't care about doing their own interface.

You're making the same assumptions that legacy auto does and it's why they be failing on the EV front. If they keep phoning it in with software they will keep losing the bigger war front. Software is crucial to the human interface and obviously the whole integration of the car itself. Tesla's re-written the book on what a car is with their mastery of software. Frankly the *sugar* just works unlike everyone else. I don't think Tesla has anything to worry about. When I see carplay or aa, it tells me we suck and don't want to deal...

 

[WhiteWi]

Man, every time I buy Tesla stonks drop even more and every time I sell it grows like hell I am terrible But at least I don’t sell much

 

[JRP3]

Man, every time I buy Tesla stonks drop even more and every time I sell it grows like hell

Please start selling.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Day jobs are the worst. Something tells me that there will more chances. Q2 is a complete toss up on how the market will react.

isn't that every Q for $TSLA?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

You're making the same assumptions that legacy auto does and it's why they be failing on the EV front. If they keep phoning it in with software they will keep losing the bigger war front. Software is crucial to the human interface and obviously the whole integration of the car itself. Tesla's re-written the book on what a car is with their mastery of software. Frankly the *sugar* just works unlike everyone else. I don't think Tesla has anything to worry about. When I see carplay or aa, it tells me we suck and don't want to deal...

I didn't say it was smart for legacy auto to cede all the software to apple (it is smart for Apple though), but it makes sense in terms of trying to squeeze everything they can out of legacy to buy as much time as they can. They can say "you don't need an EV to have all the fancy software". As someone mentioned the other day, they are basically becoming PC manufacturers and will install junk software on CarPlay to try and differentiate the same way PC makers like Dell and Lenovo do. Their business model is totally different and they are not ready to make the necessary changes yet, so the best they can do is try and buy more time.

As someone else mentioned, Apple is trying to be the Windows of the car world, while Tesla is becoming the Apple of the car world.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Car makers are not willing to cede control over their interface (even though it would likely result in a better vehicle)...

Not true. Polestar has done this, and the experience IMO looks frankly pretty good - complete and seamless. Tesla-like even.

And yet, if you think about how much "car" the manufacturer still has to design and produce, the hardware "car" is more than a commodity. It's more than a battery on wheels. Care about what the seats are like? Care about a sunroof or convertible? Care about carrying a small team to a soccer game? Care about the sound system? Care about battery efficiency? All this is outside of OS scope.

Sure, when FSD is added, that's a lot of the functionality, but until then, the OS is a key specialized feature that most OEMs are ill-equipped to write themselves, and are better outsourcing to Google. I don't see what Apple is proposing is nearly as complete and integral as Google and especially Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think Tesla has anything to worry about. When I see carplay or aa, it tells me we suck and don't want to deal...

Yes, but just wait for AppleCar! Now that is going to be revolutionary!

/s

Isn't there a "special" thread for talk about Apple innovations? I imagine it's a pretty short thread, but taking it there could make it longer, no?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Yes, but just wait for AppleCar! Now that is going to be revolutionary!

/s

Isn't there a "special" thread for talk about Apple innovations? I imagine it's a pretty short thread, but taking it there could make it longer, no?

There is a CarPlay thread...

2022 Apple CarPlay update vs Tesla UI

If anyone has watched the Apple WWDC Keynote today, what's your thought about the new CarPlay update vs Tesla dashboard UI? Once the videos go live on YouTube, I'll link them here for those who did not watch the keynote.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Gigapress]

Yes yes. I know all that. The problem is the "for many years" bit, both in these graphs and in the previous Lazards ones from ZachF (post #344,669 - the link will take one there despite appearances ....),

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I hope 2022 doesn’t repeat itself: Your graph labels contain some typo’s. *typos. Plural, not possessive.

teslamotorsclub.com

which (I think) showed a recent 8% CAGR that raised my eyebrow. It looked to my eyes as if they'd gotten the decimal point in the wrong place and 0.8% CAGR was more likely. Indeed looking at these graphs of yours the 8% again looks doubtful, 1/101 is veeeery close to 1% which is basically flatlined within the noise. And I see periodic price increases in some markets from time to time as well. ...

If we are in 0.8% or 1% or similar CAGR territory with solar PV then I think we can throw away any ideas of hopium that are predicated on the basis of geting an order of magntitude improvement in the cost base for solar PV. For wind I can still see the cost decline curve working OK, and it is in good shape for batteries. But for PV the data is very flat in my opinion. That means that once we add cost of intermittency back in to the renewables solution, then the renewables energy price scenarios we are facing for the next 20-30 years (i.e. the duration of the energy transition we are now within) are going to be the equivalent of an oil price of $40-$80/bbl. So renewables will be not significantly cheaper than oil has been in the last few years (OK, not right now at $110). So if a project won't fly at $40-80/bbl price-equivalent then don't expect a magic wand to come along and make it goodly cheaper, because the evidence is of a flat line on the price/cost curve.

Data driven, that's what I am. Because I have over 30-years of scars in the energy sector.

I'm data driven as well. That's precisely why I'm projecting solar costs to fall by at least another order of magnitude. We aren't even close to the floor. I'm working on another megapost breaking down my thesis for why I'm expecting Wright's Law for solar to continue for long enough for the renewables revolution to play out in the next 20 years. It might take 2-3 weeks to complete so I hope this will suffice for now.

Upon review I think the 8% cost decline rate for 2016-2021 shown in the Lazard graph presented in the post by @ZachF is correct, as shown below.

(100% - 8%)^(5 years) —> 2021 price is 66% of 2016 price

The chart shows 2016 price of ~$55/MWh, and 2021 price of ~$35/MWh.
35/55 = 64%, close enough to 66% to be within rounding error.

That being said, 8% is substantially less than the 23% annual cost decline from 2009 through 2016.

However...the '09-'16 era cost declines were majorly boosted by:

• Improvements in credit access lowering cost of capital as Great Financial Crisis was resolved
  • Solar economics are dominated by upfront investment expenses, so the levelized long-term cost per MWh is exquisitely sensitive to capital costs
• Resolution of short-term raw material price spikes circa 2009
  • Especially crucial, the prices for oil and polycrystalline silicon wafers spiked BIG TIME in '08
• China's CCP really stepped up government support for scaling panel manufacturing

These macroeconomic factors vary from year to year and thereby create noise that muddies the underlying cost trend. Currently, they are responsible for slowing down the cost trend in '20-'22. The prices of key raw materials like oil, silicon wafers, steel and copper have spiked again, and capital costs are higher now than they were in '20. Shipping costs from China, where the majority of panels are manufactured, have also exploded. The price of qualified labor has also risen because of construction demand in general has skyrocketed.

In this recent macro environment, the fact that solar prices have fallen at all instead of increasing is actually a testament to how reliable the solar improvement trend is. This has been a stress test for the solar industry.

Source

Source

Oil Prices

Source

Remember the soft costs (like the poor) are always with us.

Always with us, but still shrinking on a per-MWh basis, as this chart in the OP showed. Soft costs in 2015 were roughly equal to the total cost in 2020. Same for 2010 to 2015. It seems to stay at about half the total cost over time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

. . .and why wouldn't he provide a notation that the data excludes China? Is he trying to manufacture a narrative?
My job posting count including China is 7,361
View attachment 813743

View attachment 813744

Yup......You can always assume he is going to present data that skews to make Tesla look negative.........and he'll leave out any and all data that doesn't fit his narrative. Simple as that

 

[Ohmster]

My Plaid gets gushing comments and stares everywhere I go. Wife's lady friends drool over her MYP. Neighbors ask me why my lights stay on during blackouts (PowerWalls).....all good stuff. And then....

At work today, a colleague asked if Tesla was going to stop making cars. Shocked, I asked where on earth he got that idea. He stated he read/heard that Tesla was letting go a large number of employees, and that would affect the 'start-up' so badly, they would not be able to make cars out of their one factory.

Hmmm. 15 minutes later, he understood how many employees Tesla has, what the growth projections have been and what has been met, their market share, their margins, how many factories this 'start-up' has, and the adjacent markets that Tesla is in besides cars.

He left to go buy some stock.

 

[henchman24]

Been enjoying finally having nice weather where I'm at and finally golfing.... so probably have missed things and if this has been discussed ignore.

But on a macro level... this Target business is a very good sign. Retailers have been having growing inventories that they can't sell at elevated prices... Target finally being the one to breakdown and finally admit they can't prop prices up is very good for the whole macro market. It will likely force others to follow suit... which will become a strong deflationary factor in the months ahead. Likely won't offset all of the inflation, but should help bend the curve. At this moment we are just waiting for official news that inflation has peaked. It might be this Friday or in a month or two, but it is coming soon with this pressure.

On the market reaction, this didn't wipe out the 30 day MA support for the Nasdaq and Vix is looking to get under 24. There just needs to be some positive catalyst to get things going. CPI would be a great start and the Fed showing some trepidation of going too high next week would set it off. Two large ifs right there.

For Tesla, the jobs drama just allowed the gamma pressure to die. There is basically no positive pressure on the chain and it would take a 100 pt run to start to run into major issues there. Tesla needs a catalyst to jump start something. Elon finding a way to walk away from Twitter would do it. Strong May production in Shanghai. Disclosure on the stock split. Something to that extent to gain back some momentum.

 

[thesmokingman]

My Plaid gets gushing comments and stares everywhere I go. Wife's lady friends drool over her MYP. Neighbors ask me why my lights stay on during blackouts (PowerWalls).....all good stuff. And then....

At work today, a colleague asked if Tesla was going to stop making cars. Shocked, I asked where on earth he got that idea. He stated he read/heard that Tesla was letting go a large number of employees, and that would affect the 'start-up' so badly, they would not be able to make cars out of their one factory.

Hmmm. 15 minutes later, he understood how many employees Tesla has, what the growth projections have been and what has been met, their market share, their margins, how many factories this 'start-up' has, and the adjacent markets that Tesla is in besides cars.

He left to go buy some stock.

It's shocking or surprising how effective the FUD is for casuals. My mom used to text me about it till I had to explain to her 98% of the new you read about Tesla is FUD. And then I had to explain what FUD is and it's relationship to Tesla whom doesn't pay for advertising.

 

[Buckminster]

Wild guess warning!!! Folds (or telescopes out) as a double or triple wiper. Swim motion like a frog's leg? How would a wiper wipe if make through AI design, like some prehistoric animal? I bet (small) that they took the AI route and this thing's gonna surprise us all. There's just too much interest on a freaking wiper blade for this to be stupid, let's put it that way.

(Edit - Further, if I were a WiperSmith, I'd be sure every corner was cleaned... somehow.)

Wipey McWipeface?

 

[The Accountant]

Tick . . . . Tick . . . Tick . . . until June 25th

Annual Meeting is on August 4th.
Proxy Materials providing information on matters that Shareholders will vote on are due no later than 40 calendar days before meeting.
40 days prior to Aug 4th meeting is June 25.
Anytime between now and June 25 we will find out the number of shares Tesla will ask Shareholders to authorize.

I think my info is correct but paging @Knightshade (who is knowledgeable on such matters) to weigh in.

 

[petit_bateau]

I'm data driven as well. That's precisely why I'm projecting solar costs to fall by at least another order of magnitude. We aren't even close to the floor. I'm working on another megapost breaking down my thesis for why I'm expecting Wright's Law for solar to continue for long enough for the renewables revolution to play out in the next 20 years. It might take 2-3 weeks to complete so I hope this will suffice for now.

Upon review I think the 8% cost decline rate for 2016-2021 shown in the Lazard graph presented in the post by @ZachF is correct, as shown below.

(100% - 8%)^(5 years) —> 2021 price is 66% of 2016 price

The chart shows 2016 price of ~$55/MWh, and 2021 price of ~$35/MWh.
35/55 = 64%, close enough to 66% to be within rounding error.

View attachment 812941


That being said, 8% is substantially less than the 23% annual cost decline from 2009 through 2016.

However...the '09-'16 era cost declines were majorly boosted by:

• Improvements in credit access lowering cost of capital as Great Financial Crisis was resolved
  • Solar economics are dominated by upfront investment expenses, so the levelized long-term cost per MWh is exquisitely sensitive to capital costs
• Resolution of short-term raw material price spikes circa 2009
  • Especially crucial, the prices for oil and polycrystalline silicon wafers spiked BIG TIME in '08
• China's CCP really stepped up government support for scaling panel manufacturing

These macroeconomic factors vary from year to year and thereby create noise that muddies the underlying cost trend. Currently, they are responsible for slowing down the cost trend in '20-'22. The prices of key raw materials like oil, silicon wafers, steel and copper have spiked again, and capital costs are higher now than they were in '20. Shipping costs from China, where the majority of panels are manufactured, have also exploded. The price of qualified labor has also risen because of construction demand in general has skyrocketed.

In this recent macro environment, the fact that solar prices have fallen at all instead of increasing is actually a testament to how reliable the solar improvement trend is. This has been a stress test for the solar industry.


View attachment 813774
Source

View attachment 813781
Source

Oil Prices
View attachment 813784
Source


Always with us, but still shrinking on a per-MWh basis, as this chart in the OP showed. Soft costs in 2015 were roughly equal to the total cost in 2020. Same for 2010 to 2015. It seems to stay at about half the total cost over time.

View attachment 813785

The West has been offshoring manufacturing for quite a while, that solar is mostly made from coal in China (directly and indirectly). Start putting CBAMs into place* and reshoring to a carbon-neutral manufacturing environment and I think solar costs start rising across the board. I think the current costs of solar are pretty much as good as it will get, which is imho not unreasonable.

Wind I think has reasonable runway left, and battery storage lots of runway. Carbon capture and storage, not a cat in hells chance (and I've done carbon capture for real).

YMMV.


(* which is why I pay attention to CBAM progress on the energy news clippings thread)

 

[henchman24]

Tick . . . . Tick . . . Tick . . . until June 25th

Annual Meeting is on August 4th.
Proxy Materials providing information on matters that Shareholders will vote on are due no later than 40 calendar days before meeting.
40 days prior to Aug 4th meeting is June 25.
Anytime between now and June 25 we will find out the number of shares Tesla will ask Shareholders to authorize.

I think my info is correct but paging @Knightshade (who is knowledgeable on such matters) to weigh in.

Yeah it is 40 calendar days. I don't know Tesla's record of filing, but I doubt they'll give much more than 40 days. So I have my vote as June 24th they'll file (I hope to be wrong though).