Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

I doubt any of us wonder if TSLA will rise over it's ATH, it's just a question of when we pass $1,200 again.

I think TSLA will pass it's ATH on.....February 3rd, 2023.

 

[Gigapress]

Insightful Reddit comments from an account that’s apparently Stuart from Munro & Associates.

To clarify, those heavier batteries were the Plaid and Rivian. Rivian alone is nearly 800kg. Our 2020 Model Y was 440kg.

Personally, I don't think that the seats, center console, and carpet are 100kg, so the battery pack itself is probably heavier than the old design. The big savings is in eliminating the load floor, both in terms of weight, raw material cost, and labor cost. Just being able to stand inside the vehicle and install the pillar trim rather than hang into the vehicle from outside, bend backward, and clip it in is a huge ergonomic advantage.

Tesla is playing the big picture game, seeking gains across the entire vehicle, rather than looking at single part savings.

Q: Does this pack have liquid cooling? Where were the coolant connections?

A: Can confirm, I drained the coolant, got about a gallon in the pan, and about four ounces on myself.

One connector in front, one in back. Other coolant lines are routed along the sides of the pack, such as the RDU lines, and the coolant return line for the battery.

Well I can tell you that the one [battery pack] in the Model Y we tore apart back in 2020 was 437kg. Everything was weighed on calibrated scales before we finalized the report, so I can say fairly confidently that it's correct plus or minus a couple of kg overall.

Seat weight quote in the comparison report is for both. Front Driver Seat 22.2kg, Front Passenger Seat, 22.6kg. Again, this is per our mapping software from which that report was generated.

For SAG I went and pulled the new center console off and weighed it. It's around 10kgs. So, now we're up to about 55kg. Add maybe another 10 for the carpet and foam, and you get 65kg. Meaning that the battery is about 35kg heavier than the old version. Let's just hope I don't get in trouble for saying these numbers publicly before we officially publish them, yeah?
…
I think the big save is being able to get rid of the load floor in the body in white. It might not be a weight save at all in the end, but it's definitely a cost save at piece cost level, and a systemic level by eliminating part numbers, warranty claims and scrap due to those part numbers, etc.

One of my larger concerns as a mechanical engineering with a background in industrial engineering, and just being an ethical person, is always ergonomics. Being able to get inside the body and STAND UP to install the interior trim with a pushing motion, rather than crawl around in the body over pokey studs and brackets, or lean in door openings to install stuff with a pulling motion, makes a huge difference in workplace safety and stress injuries.

[The drop-in structural battery pack] also simplifies the installation of lots of other interior trim. Typically the pillar trim has to be installed from the outside by people hanging through the door opening, with this design the operator can stand inside the body and snap them in and secure them. Greatly increases safety and ergonomics, and thus time on the line.

I want to emphasize the comments on ergonomics. Improving employee safety is the Number One Thing a company’s engineers can do to improve morale, quality, cost and throughput.

Tesla’s rear gigacasting on the Y enabled them to design the Supertub depicted on page 42 of the 2019 Impact Report (link). I think people who haven’t worked in manufacturing missed the significance of that reveal. Tesla is a mission-driven company and as such they always tend to sneak the best info into the Impact Report.

The Supertub is one of the main reasons why the Y has less labor cost than the 3. Look at the positioning of that technician in the image. Standing up straight, running the tool at shoulder level, direct line of eyesight on the nut being torqued. Damn near perfection from an ergonomic standpoint. Nobody else in the car industry has this as far as I’m aware, because it requires an IDRA Gigapress.

With the structural pack, now the Supertub is probably obsolete because whole freaking Model Y interior can be assembled in a comfortable body position and with more employees working simultaneously at a production cell because of the greater ease of access, all before the marriage of the chassis and upper shell. This matters. Fewer people going home hurt after work, and fatter profit margins. Win win.

ESG ratings and UAW accusations are missing the point. Tesla is making major advances in safety for line workers by badass engineering design.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Energy output is over 100 times the input needed to manufacture solar panels

According to a third-party study, the projected output over the 40-year warranty period of Maxeon solar panels exceeds the energy demand of manufacturing them by over 100-fold. Plus, more details from the Maxeon 2021 sustainability report.

pv-magazine-usa.com

The test found that Maxeon 3 solar panels had an energy payback period ranging from 0.13 to 0.45 years for ground mounted module, and 0.27 to 0.92 years for a residential rooftop system. For ground mounted panels, the energy payback period can be as little as 47.5 days.

I still have high hopes for TSLA to install panels in my state one day. Maybe after I get my Texas made Tesla I can eventually get some Tesla Solar on my roof.

If the future cost of everything were based mostly on the cost of energy (with automation, Primus, true costs...), then remote land or dried up farms could have some new value in solar farming, location dependent. Imagine a land grab for solar farming growth... what a beautiful thought. As crazy as it sounds, this would happen to anything that produced more than the sum of all its inputs.

Place the farms near factories and along Interstate highways - not just for vehicles but for new pavement too. Maybe have a few to revive any dead-pool hydroelectric dams since they already have a distribution network. Definitely rooftops in the city.

Wait... no... Rooftops could still be for the salad bar. Instead, string ladders of solar panels in between buildings for added shade. Pull on the ends and have them all rotate like blinds to track the sun. Wind could be an issue but maybe not if all linked up side by side. Hmmm, got me thinking.

Tom Cruise or James Bond would have to cross it of course. Cuts a strand and it spins, then 4 panels swing off, sparks everywhere now, slippery... Hang on! His shoes were not meant for this... but the glass is quite rough on the feet.

A crowd is forming on the street below as he glances at his nemesis off a reflection in one of the panels. Just then, seems like a bucket of water out coming from one of the windows higher on up? No wait... that was the panel cleaning system and it's headed right for his fingers! "Squeak, squeak, squeak" as it got closer and closer.

Just when all hope is lost, SuperCharger to the rescue! Fueled by Solar Energy drinks, swinging and sliding from panel to panel like a snowboarder in a half pipe, S.C. is going to make the city cool again. It breathes carbon, chews on glass, and out comes carbon-fiber on demand. First a strand for the falling ones, then a splash of carbon wrap over the villain before securing the panels. "It was like a ball of energy when it got going, but then it got darker outside for a few seconds. Powerwalls and Robotaxis for a whole block are suddenly fully charged."

"Impressive!" says Spiderman, "but it's also fairly heavy and I prefer to travel light."

 

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544459035151319042

?

 

[juanmedina]

Here is to a strong second half :

 

[ZeApelido]

ESG ratings and UAW accusations are missing the point. Tesla is making major advances in safety for line workers by badass engineering design.

Does this mean we can finally have Alcantara and HUD?

 

[unk45]

You haven’t driven my 1980 BJ40 Land Cruiser lately.

True, but I did once get one of similar vintage while driving across a UAE desert. The battery was charging well. Luckily the same trip now would be in a Tesla.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544459035151319042

?

Not junk, lol. I always suspected the Monroe teardown would reveal. It couldn't be much longer after first delivery in Texas recently, and what I thought at the time. Maybe the surprise is that there's only half a pack in there (wishful) and most of the weight is from the epoxy.

But $800 for one of the 4680 batteries in his teardown? Wow, I thought the plaid motor plate I bought was expensive. And what if they can't remove them in the epoxy? Ha, maybe that's one of the surprises! Good luck separating each one? I'd rather have that orange battery connector if we're parting things out.

 

[OrthoSurg]

CNBC trying it's best to say otherwise, so there are definitely hedgies spending money to spin this as a negative.

To me, -1% TSLA with QQQ down .85% is quite strong and smells like we end the day green. We shall see!

View attachment 824887

Nice call.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

based on Elon's sock tweets...

out : chairs
in : socks

 

[SOULPEDL]

True, but I did once get one of similar vintage while driving across a UAE desert. The battery was charging well. Luckily the same trip now would be in a Tesla.

I had an MGB that I would start in gear - a clutch issue. That my first ever electric car experience. Clearly 12V wasn't enough, but it did have some useful gear reduction against the flywheel.

 

[jkirkwood001]

This often overlooked difference in business models (among others) is a key first principles win for Tesla. Not relying on low quality components that are designed with limited life expectancy to maximize dealer and OEM profitability. The ability for Tesla to say that the best service / maintenance is NO service / maintenance and honestly mean it. It promotes brand reliability. This is the right side to be on.

Sooo... bring on Teslabot and energy and insurance and and ...? Because infinite demand for products that don't deteriorate does not go on forever. I guess Tesla could follow the smartphone manufacturers and keep convincing us to upgrade phones that work fine, but this doesn't seem like a wise business model, eh? I mean, once Tesla reaches 20 M cars per year / it'll take them less than a decade to replace virtually ALL the cars on the road, right?

Okay, this will be a "good" problem to have, many years in the future. No alarm bells yet, but something to think about based on first principles thinking and the ceiling of compound growth rates based on limited demand.

 

[Artful Dodger]

based on Elon's sock tweets...

out : chairs
in : socks

No, its about sock puppet accounts (robots) on Twitter.

#SockPuppetAI

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Sooo... bring on Teslabot and energy and insurance and and ...? Because infinite demand for products that don't deteriorate does not go on forever. I guess Tesla could follow the smartphone manufacturers and keep convincing us to upgrade phones that work fine, but this doesn't seem like a wise business model, eh? I mean, once Tesla reaches 20 M cars per year / it'll take them less than a decade to replace virtually ALL the cars on the road, right?

Okay, this will be a "good" problem to have, many years in the future. No alarm bells yet, but something to think about based on first principles thinking and the ceiling of compound growth rates based on limited demand.

I'm pretty sure with the total world motor vehicle fleet that needs to be replaced at 1.4 billion vehicles we won't be worrying about unbreakable cars ending the world auto market for a very very long time.

 

[kbM3]

Insightful Reddit comments from an account that’s apparently Stuart from Munro & Associates.










I want to emphasize the comments on ergonomics. Improving employee safety is the Number One Thing a company’s engineers can do to improve morale, quality, cost and throughput.

Tesla’s rear gigacasting on the Y enabled them to design the Supertub depicted on page 42 of the 2019 Impact Report (link). I think people who haven’t worked in manufacturing missed the significance of that reveal. Tesla is a mission-driven company and as such they always tend to sneak the best info into the Impact Report.

View attachment 825127

The Supertub is one of the main reasons why the Y has less labor cost than the 3. Look at the positioning of that technician in the image. Standing up straight, running the tool at shoulder level, direct line of eyesight on the nut being torqued. Damn near perfection from an ergonomic standpoint. Nobody else in the car industry has this as far as I’m aware, because it requires an IDRA Gigapress.

With the structural pack, now the whole freaking Model Y interior can be assembled in a comfortable body position and with more employees working simultaneously at a production cell because of the greater ease of access. This matters. Fewer people going home hurt after work, and fatter profit margins. Win win.

ESG ratings and UAW accusations are missing the point. Tesla is making major advances in safety for line workers by badass engineering design.

if he’s correct, a lower energy content 4680 pack weighing 35 kg more than a long range 2170 pack is quite disheartening.

So I guess some of the weight savings from removing the underbody is currently used up by lower density cells?

That seems to answer the puzzle why the vehicle is not much lighter than a LR 2170.

Hopefully Tesla pushes in more advanced chemistries relatively quickly! They claimed a 56% range increase (by 2025 IIRC) which only makes sense as a referral to pack energy density.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm pretty sure with the total world motor vehicle fleet that needs to be replaced at 1.4 billion vehicles we won't be worrying about unbreakable cars ending the world auto market for a very very long time.

There is also a lot of unmet demand, people that have never owned a car, or never had transport and energy.

There may come a time when Tesla makes more from services like Robotaxis, insurance and Supercharging than they do from automotive sales.

For Optimus, with an aging population, lots of environmental messes to clean up, lots of recycling, construction, manufacturing and maintenance to do, industrial applications will not tap out anytime soon.

Then we come to domestic applications, bringing the beers, cooking the BBQ, mowing the lawn, cleaning the house, washing the car,

Optimus needs to know XXXX isn't real beer. only bring XXXX to visiting Americans, so training is required.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm pretty sure with the total world motor vehicle fleet that needs to be replaced at 1.4 billion vehicles we won't be worrying about unbreakable cars ending the world auto market for a very very long time.

IDK. If each replacement had 10x utilization, would be more like 150M needed, so next decade is all.

 

[insaneoctane]

Sooo... bring on Teslabot and energy and insurance and and ...? Because infinite demand for products that don't deteriorate does not go on forever. I guess Tesla could follow the smartphone manufacturers and keep convincing us to upgrade phones that work fine, but this doesn't seem like a wise business model, eh? I mean, once Tesla reaches 20 M cars per year / it'll take them less than a decade to replace virtually ALL the cars on the road, right?

Okay, this will be a "good" problem to have, many years in the future. No alarm bells yet, but something to think about based on first principles thinking and the ceiling of compound growth rates based on limited demand.

Tesla has admitted the goal of 1M miles for batteries and motors. That's arguably 5x more than conventional ICE. Not all components will last this long. But don't you see the significance of having this conversation vs traditional manufacturers wondering at how many miles the motor brushes ought to be replaced at to keep their dealer network satisfied...

 

[Gigapress]

if he’s correct, a lower energy content 4680 pack weighing 35 kg more than a long range 2170 pack is quite disheartening.

So I guess some of the weight savings from removing the underbody is currently used up by lower density cells?

That seems to answer the puzzle why the vehicle is not much lighter than a LR 2170.

Hopefully Tesla pushes in more advanced chemistries relatively quickly! They claimed a 56% range increase (by 2025 IIRC) which only makes sense as a referral to pack energy density.

What Stuart is saying in the weight comments is that it’s not a direct comparison to the battery of the Y they tore down in 2020.

“I think the big save is being able to get rid of the load floor in the body in white”

The difference is that this battery pack has a bunch of steel and aluminum for structural purposes that replace mass that previously was part of the body-in-white. When this currently-unknown savings is accounted for, the 35 kg extra will probably be canceled out and then some.

This is what Elon meant at Battery Day when saying that the cells cans and pack case effectively have negative mass with the structural pack design.

We also don’t know yet whether this battery pack is software-limited such that there’s extra unused energy in it than the nominal rating. The Munro team needs to tear down more to find that out. We’ll know the answer soon.

Edit: And as @Thekiwi said, another possibility is that this pack contains dummy cells that are present solely for structural purposes.

 

[Abergdc]

Wow, I'll take these numbers!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1543033858156683264