May I suggest you use a log-normal graph in this circumstance? I suspect you will find a more useful depiction of the P/E line.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This means today is a buying opportunity!!!
My model predicts 2028 for over $100B revenue as well. Hopefully we are both right!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Looks more like the San Andreas fault at it again.New paint job in Hollister, California. FSD edge case for sure.
Apparently meant to slow traffic (traffic calming) for the crosswalk instead of using speed bumps.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Tesla aside, anyone with Aramco kicking out $100B in 2030 is insane. Consumption of their product will have peaked more than a decade prior and they'll be lucky if the corporate headquarters isn't a rebel stronghold or simply a ghost town by then.
That's like looking at Peabody Energy will be crushing it eight years form now in 2012. Not so much. We're still using tons and tons of coal, but the companies are nearly worthless.
I disagreed because you have posted completely incorrect information. Corporate compensation practices vary widely and often consider tax implication in compensation choices. To my knowledge some such seemingly bizarre choices as these exist for sound reasons:
1. Unlimited First class air travel for employee, spouse and dependents;
2. Unlimited personal use of corporate aircraft fro employee and family;
(Those two are not at all uncommon, usually for security reasons, but not exclusively so)
3. Company pay for all alcoholic beverages use in company-paid housing which also includes every single expense associated with the residence in question.
4. Providing company owned yacht for any purpose chose by employee.
5. this ignores some such benefits for lifetime upon retirement.
The list goes on. All these benefits and others like them can easily be described as profligate and outrageous. All of them are sometimes prudent choices. Some of us posting here have been beneficiaries of some of these benefits. Nearly all of us are likely to think they were either cheaper or less risky than would be alternatives. Some of those also are explicitly tax beneficial ways to provide compensation.
Obviously, you might want to think about what ids and is not "illegitimate" and why.
In conclusion, without a doubt it is common to abuse such benefits and/or use them in unwise ways.
Were such to be extended to Mr. Musk it would not necessarily be unwise, but I doubt he'd have the slightest interest in a yacht. I know of one such case in which the yacht in question (a really huge one >50 meters) is profit making for the corporate owner. If I know of one, surely there must be quite a few in similar financial status.
Which would be mind blowing!
"Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of plans to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions from its assets by 2050, the company said in a ...Jun 15, 2022"
Aramco to invest in 12 GW renewables, reduce upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035
Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of pla
www.spglobal.com
I am not suggesting they'll do that, or are otherwise virtuous, but they are one I would not count out. They'll probably be the last oil and gas giant standing, for no other reason than that their extraction cost and environmental price are both the most favorable globally.
No matter what else may be problematic, it is clear that crypto currencies do have less regulatory costs and price friction than do most national currencies. Personally, I'm not much thrilled about that, but those of us who've had long involvements in global financial movements can understand why unregulated commodities such as those can begin to supplant gold and counterfeit US$ large notes from those historical roles, and even the SWIFT transmitted transactions that go between high-friction places, for examples take Brazil-Iran, Russia-(a fair number), and Nigeria-Indonesia.
It's not an accident that TrasnferWise and Skype both were developed in Estonia, home of the cleverest techies around. OK, I admit to a large pro-Estonian bias.
The Accountant
Active Member
As a 22 year old on one of my first audits of a public company, I found that the CEO expensed 4 tires for his Ferrari 308 sports car. I knew his company car was a Mercedes so I was certain this was a personal expense put through the company's books.
Boy was I surprised when the Controller showed me the CEO's compensation agreement that listed 2 company cars including the Ferrari. She also showed me that the cost of the tires was properly reported as compensation on the CEO tax return.
P.S. This was a small closely held public company. I rarely saw this type of lavish perquisite at larger public companies.
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The Arvand Rud has much for which to be responsible, but I had no idea you were Iraqi in your slightly more aged form.
Factually many of the smaller transactions that normally have used derivatives, probably most often forwards, find that the transactions costs are painful and are toying with cryptocurrencies as a less friction inflicted mode, even though the value fluctuations remain the chief impediment to their growth.
That is why I disagree with you about the Tesla experimentation with cryptocurrency. Pretty obviously they've learned that large magnitude is just as costly as it is when trying to cover forward, say, a large commodity payment or even a Tesla or Apple sized currency imbalance. Right now nothing scales very well, so more and more currency imbalances plague both outhouse and many others.
We all know Cryptocurrencies duo not scale either. In retrospect maybe we should have known, maybe Tesla too, but nobody knew exactly how deep the market actually might be, did they?
The lesson for us is that Tesla keeps looking for better solutions, and makes some missteps on the way of nearly all, including motors and 4680's.
Great chart, did you make it or is there a site to make others like it? Would like to see one for the FAANG gang. I'd imagine similarities
eFuels with Blume as VW CEO. Fossil fuel is regrouping."Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of plans to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions from its assets by 2050, the company said in a ...Jun 15, 2022"
Aramco to invest in 12 GW renewables, reduce upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035
Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of pla
I am not suggesting they'll do that, or are otherwise virtuous, but they are one I would not count out. They'll probably be the last oil and gas giant standing, for no other reason than that their extraction cost and environmental price are both the most favorable globally.
I used to work for a startup (loose term, they were around for 10 years before being acquired) in California with a celebrity CEO and a stylish secretary that would go shopping in New York charging it all to the expense account.
I am not surprised.
They also made a deal of paying some bigwigs million dollar bonuses when the company was acquired and all the shares were priced so low that 10 year tenure employees would barely get a new laptop out of it.
I have been much less optimistic about shares at startups since then
The only exception I know would be Tesla.This thought process is entirely reliant on the macro environment.That would be awesome, but I think our PE will be more like 80-90 after Q4 2022, lower than today, for a share price just barely over the ATH of $1250 or so in January (about $450 post split). And then from there on out the PE continues to fall slowly every quarter while the share price goes up inversely.
Again, I hope you are right though!
If macros and economic environment stays like it currently is by the end of the year, then yes I think TSLA’s P/E stays between 80-100.
If peak inflation is in the past, the economy bottoms with no recession or a mild recession and the Fed’s pivot to a stable interest rate after the two upcoming hikes, then TSLA’s P/E will be in the 125-150 range.
There are however things in Tesla’s control that could push its PE higher even in a bad macro environment such as -
-FSD wide release and revenue recognition along with push for subscription model and that recurring revenue actually start to show up in earnings
- Tesla insurance continued push and having that high margin revenue start to make a material impact on earnings
- Opening up superchargers in US, opening up subscription revenue
- Tesla Energy finally going into S curve of production and thus margins on Tesla Energy finally start trending towards total gross margin
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Do you disagree with my assessment - and vociferous gasp in one of this thread's prior avatars around 2014 when...Deepak Ahuja, I believe it was....revealed that Tesla did not hedge its currency exposure? Already by then Tesla was no bit player of smaller transactions.
I'll leave aside cryptocurrency discussion here as I've seen zero evidence of participants in this thread being swayed from their prior opinions regardless of either sides' demonstrations of efficacy, logic or experience.
Pezpunk
Active Member
Weekend OT:
Took the family from Virginia to Quebec (about an hour north of Ottawa). The range on the Plaid (with 19” wheels) has been a real boon, its 396 mile range is actually way more useful and flexible than my old P100D’s 310 mile range. It makes a huge difference. I can’t charge at the cabin (too far from the nearest electrical outlet) so I need the charge to last through 2 weeks of random errands to get drinking water from the well or supplies from the general store. There are some slow chargers around, but I haven’t had to waste my time at them yet.
Speaking of charging speeds, on the drive up, the car was maxing out over 1,000 miles per hour at times at the newer superchargers. With two kids and a dog, at no point during the entire trip were we waiting for the car to finish charging - it was ALWAYS ready to go before we were. Dog Mode has come in handy a few times as well.
A few interesting features have surfaced on the trip. For example, the dash display automatically converts KPH speed limit signs to mph for you, so the signs on the visualization say “Speed Limit 62 Mph” when it’s 100kph.
Oh yeah and there’s a dude with a crotch rocket somewhere in Quebec who has a newly-acquired awe for the literally unbeatable acceleration of the Plaid at any speed.
Anyway, just wanna say this is easily the best family sedan ever built and I hope Tesla never stops making them.
Took the family from Virginia to Quebec (about an hour north of Ottawa). The range on the Plaid (with 19” wheels) has been a real boon, its 396 mile range is actually way more useful and flexible than my old P100D’s 310 mile range. It makes a huge difference. I can’t charge at the cabin (too far from the nearest electrical outlet) so I need the charge to last through 2 weeks of random errands to get drinking water from the well or supplies from the general store. There are some slow chargers around, but I haven’t had to waste my time at them yet.
Speaking of charging speeds, on the drive up, the car was maxing out over 1,000 miles per hour at times at the newer superchargers. With two kids and a dog, at no point during the entire trip were we waiting for the car to finish charging - it was ALWAYS ready to go before we were. Dog Mode has come in handy a few times as well.
A few interesting features have surfaced on the trip. For example, the dash display automatically converts KPH speed limit signs to mph for you, so the signs on the visualization say “Speed Limit 62 Mph” when it’s 100kph.
Oh yeah and there’s a dude with a crotch rocket somewhere in Quebec who has a newly-acquired awe for the literally unbeatable acceleration of the Plaid at any speed.
Anyway, just wanna say this is easily the best family sedan ever built and I hope Tesla never stops making them.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Their extraction costs are low because they have a pool of essentially slave laborers and a fully compliant society. But you gotta remember that compliance comes at a steep cost."Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of plans to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions from its assets by 2050, the company said in a ...Jun 15, 2022"
Aramco to invest in 12 GW renewables, reduce upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035
Saudi Aramco plans to invest in 12 GW of solar PV and wind projects and reduce its upstream carbon intensity by 15% by 2035 as well as produce 11 million mt/year of blue ammonia by 2030 as part of pla
I am not suggesting they'll do that, or are otherwise virtuous, but they are one I would not count out. They'll probably be the last oil and gas giant standing, for no other reason than that their extraction cost and environmental price are both the most favorable globally.
Next time Brent goes below $50 for a 6-9 month period, that may well unravel. People dramatically underestimate how tenuous the royal family's hold is on power there. Today it is absolute and it seems MBS can do anything he likes. The moment society wakes up to crude demand having peaked....the clock starts ticking.
I don't see any scenario where the Saudis are casually and efficiently pumping crude in 2030. Why and how would OPEC even exist by then? Without OPEC, it's every gal for herself. The market will certainly be flooded with supply for a multi-year period at some point between 2024 and 2029. And that's all she wrote IMO.
Gonna be ugly.
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