Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

I only got $500 when I bought mine this March.

I got mine in 2018. I think they added the last point below since then...

 

[Fred42]

Once upon a time, a would-be company called “Tesla” got a helluva good deal on another old plant Toyota (don’t spoil this story by including GM) had abandoned. But THIS time, UK likely could, effectively, force majeure the situation and obtain / repurpose it for $0 (sorry: £0). There has been a good deal of good-quality discussion in this thread on the economic hurdles a UK-based auto production operation has in a world…and particularly, a continent— that drives on the other side of the road but we also all know It is NOT a particularly awkward or costly challenge to design tabula rasa a vehicle OR its manufacturing plant to accommodate either.
Now I need to learn something - anything - about the extant Toyota plant.

But Tesla was in a 'beggars can't be choosers' position when it bought the NUMMI plant, and the inefficiencies that resulted from repurposing someone else's plant continue to this day. If Tesla decided to manufacture in the UK, I would think they'd want to build a brand new, efficient plant. If the location is good enough and offered for free and the government offers to pay to clear and prep the site, then maybe OK, but this would also apply to other sites if Tesla wanted a UK factory.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Demand Anecdote

I've shared this before a couple times, but we have a 2021 (February) LR AWD Model Y. We also have an order in for a LR Model X. That's supposed to deliver September-October (keeps moving around). We have offered to trade-in the Model Y as part of the purchase process and as part of that, Tesla asks you to update the mileage every 30 days (why they can't simply get my permission to pull this date from the car is beyond me). I do that every 60 days or so and get an updated offer from Tesla. And these offers have been climbing steadily since the beginning of the year, despite the car getting older and the mileage increasing.

A week or so ago I got a reminder to update the mileage, forgot to, and then yesterday I got an updated offer, without even putting in new mileage. $63,600 for a car we paid $50,900 for. That car today would cost $67,990 (or $73,990 if you'd define the car's included Autopilot as Enhanced).

At any rate, I doubt the offer is because they are desperate to sell Model Xs - I think they are trying to get as many different people into the Tesla ecosystem as possible, since they know their brand loyalty is sticky and chart-topping.

Thanks, their offer explains why I paid so much for a used Model Y from Tesla. I thought they were making a killing, instead demand really is that strong.

 

[petit_bateau]

Pricing above the cap won't be a problem either. If needed, Tesla can play with pricing in the US the way it did in Canada. They just sell a crippled version to get under the cap. Then after the sale you can pay more to unlock more range.

All of the internet info I have seen in relation to the price-compliant Canadian model 3 indicated that Tesla did not offer an after-sale increased-range-unlock. It appears that there was a behind-the-scenes deal between Tesla and the Canadian government not to evade the law in such a manner. So the pack size was common (for manufacturing ease), but the pack range fairly permanently inhibited. There were likely very few of these vehicles made, just enough to trigger the overall Tesla access to the subsidy programme. (I'd love to be wrong on this, as I hate to see any product crippled).

Even if such an approach were to be attempted in the USA I very much doubt it would last very long. I have my doubts that such a position would be maintainable in the context of a much larger and longer lived subsidy programme in the USA, affecting a much more affected and vociferous pool of users.

(Unapproved intervention to do software unlocks is not a desirable pathway imho).

 

[traxila]

I only got $500 when I bought mine this March.

Price points matter.

I got 2000 for my M3 in 2018 and 500 for my MY in 2020.

 

[Usain]

To qualify the limit is $55,000 for a sedan. Isn't Model 3 above it?

All of the internet info I have seen in relation to the price-compliant Canadian model 3 indicated that Tesla did not offer an after-sale increased-range-unlock. It appears that there was a behind-the-scenes deal between Tesla and the Canadian government not to evade the law in such a manner. So the pack size was common (for manufacturing ease), but the pack range fairly permanently inhibited. There were likely very few of these vehicles made, just enough to trigger the overall Tesla access to the subsidy programme. (I'd love to be wrong on this, as I hate to see any product crippled).

Even if such an approach were to be attempted in the USA I very much doubt it would last very long. I have my doubts that such a position would be maintainable in the context of a much larger and longer lived subsidy programme in the USA, affecting a much more affected and vociferous pool of users.

(Unapproved intervention to do software unlocks is not a desirable pathway imho).

Yes, I admit that will be a tricky one.

I do think Tesla will try very hard to keep the base price under the limit because consumers will demand it. If that requires "unlock after the sale", then Tesla will try to do that to please its customers.

It may be that the final rule will be just like Canada where the MSRP of the lowest-priced model will prevail. In that case, the M3 RWD would easily stay under the 55K cap and consumers could take the full $7500 for any trim level of M3 they want to buy.

 

[2daMoon]

Follow-up: THIS article from autocar.uk suggests the article @2daMoon provided from the Telegraph is off-base; and this one is from April: Toyota denies plans to withdraw from UK car production | Autocar

FWIW I merely quoted the post that provided the article.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That is my understanding as well. I have friends, an outdoorsy couple who bought a Toyota RAV4 Prime (PHEV). The husband in particular loves to save money. He makes it a point of pride to always charge it ... he got a state subsidized L2 charger put in the garage, and has an energy deal that, in return for only charging at night, he gets $0.03 / kWh electricity. Very cheap electric miles. The battery has enough range that IIRC he has added gasoline stabilizer to the tank as it empties so incredibly rarely. They chose this car over a Tesla a couple years ago at least somewhat because their most common cross country trips were not well served by Superchargers (I helped them check... the routing inconveniences were ones I would have accepted, but they would not). BTW they would likely still have the same complaint about routes today, but likely not in 2 years.
Some people buy these PHEVs to use them as EVs as much as feasible in their lives.
It sounds to me like the main lesson of recent history is that fleet-provided cars should not be PHEVs, due to the lack of incentive to plug in.
I have also seen some weird statements about hybrids here of late. I think I can speak on the topic since I drove a Prius from 2005 - 2021. Somebody here dismissed them because the blueprints for them appeared too complex to work. Many other voices jumped in and agreed. I believe in my 16 years of driving (2 different Prii), I had exactly 1 unexpected dealer maintenance trip, and it was not emergent. Toyota made them well and made them by the millions. I do not believe they are the maintenance nightmares the chorus here seems to have portrayed.

Spoiler: My Big Picture musings relating to this Bill

In general, EV's have not yet solved private transport. Tesla has entire market segments it has yet to make a product for, and it cannot make enough vehicles for the S3XY segment it does address. Therefore I do not understand all this complaining about the new Congress bill offering support for PHEVs and hybrids as well as EV's.
I was finally able to jump to the next phase and get an EV myself, because my life and finances allowed it. I sometimes think we forget America is not there, and could not be there if it wanted to today due to lack of products, lack of volume, lack of infrastructure, etc...

OK, I could be wrong on PHEV reliability. Consumer Reports agrees with you and takes it further by saying EVs are less reliable. However, they are known for falsifying data on range and safety, so I don't believe them - I believe the contrary where Tesla is concerned. Not to say you didn't have a very reliable car.

My opinion comes from 1st Principles where no part is the best part and reliability is inversely proportional to complexity as a matter of fact. So it seems people can build reliability into their vehicles if they so choose.

I'm gonna throw a bone though (oh boy!). If the Hybrid clauses in the bill could require proof of charging ability (like residence/city records), or some other way to require they be used as intended (technically or legally), then maybe they have a place short-term and might help ease the overall transition. I do believe many homeowners charge as intended because I still count calories on my solar at 2 years in.

But a key point in the data I shared yesterday was that people bought these cars yet cannot charge them at their apartments, and many got them for the HOV lane access. Obviously not everyone cat have HOV access so conditions are very dynamic and hard to predict future charging behaviors or charging access. But if folks have to go somewhere to charge them as a solution, I don't place much confidence in that plan. We need to get power to parking lots, solar preferred. Rebate that Uncle Sam, for the Landlords or the cities. Hopeful...

As someone just mentioned, the advantages may become moot if Tesla addressed the lower price point vehicle. And I bet they're already position for this event if not with robotaxi. I'm positive Tesla has had a contingency in place for some time now. Will be interesting to watch!

 

[Hock1]

Just read a pretty funny Motley Fool article from a long time TSLA investor that sold 90% of his Tesla holdings at $726/share last week. Apparently he no longer thinks Elon is a genius, lol. I don't know how motley he is, but he sure is looking a fool.

buying is easy, hodling is hard

 

[jerry33]

OK, I could be wrong on PHEV reliability. Consumer Reports agrees with you and takes it further by saying EVs are less reliable. However, they are known for falsifying data on range and safety, so I don't believe them - I believe the contrary where Tesla is concerned. Not to say you didn't have a very reliable car.

My two Prius were reasonably reliable. The 2001 needed a battery after a few years ($3000 installed), and the 2004 had a software issue that would cause the car to stop while driving. I don't know the total because Denise totaled both of them. (2001, 2001-2012) (2004, 2004-2013).

 

[2daMoon]

buying is easy, hodling is hard

He just didn't know how to "play dead"

 

[SmokyPeat]

buying is easy, hodling is hard

Particularly if you play it fast and loose with leverage. I learned a valuable lesson this year- if you must use leverage, use it judiciously.

 

[cab]

I assume we'll resume our regularly scheduled financial programming on Monday, but until then, I'll chime in on the whole PHEV with my experience.

I leased a first gen Volt in 2012 for 3 years. Truly one of the best cars I've ever owned, and probably one of the best PHEV implementations out there (perhaps eclipsed only by the second gen Volt and perhaps the RAv4 Prime since then). The battery was good for an EPA 37 miles - best I ever got on a charge was 52 miles and worst was 26 (on a wet, snowy Christmas Day no less). Most days, it was right on the money for the charge rating. My commute was 35 miles round trip and I enjoyed not using gas most days.

When the battery ran out, it acted like a regular hybrid as it DOES charge the battery once the charge runs out using regen (just like a full BEV does). If you drive in "Low" (goofy term) the re-gen is stronger, BUT the brakes are BLENDED on the Volt so it always charged when under braking (assuming the battery wasn't full). It also had a mold where you could hold the charge (i..e force it to gas) or even charge it up from the engine. The latter is inefficient so you really only did it in the case you had a looooong mountain climb and needed to supplement the gas engine. Living in Texas, I never used it in those 3 years. The first gen Volt's battery was sized very conservatively by GM and had a huge buffer too.

It quickly became the preferred car for both my wife and I to drive. The Volt was unique in that full power was basically on electric (vs. gas). It really was a full electric driving experience - and is the reason I eventually got a Model S.

I put 34K miles on that car and 85% of those miles were pure electric on the battery...that's almost 29,000 of the 34,000 miles. I changed the oil once in that time (due to age, not miles). No other maintenance. I had one repair (the microphone) in that time...I can't say the same for my Model S, but it was a CPO car so not quite apples-to-apples.

The second gen Volt, which my brother has, is even better with 53 miles of range on battery.

Honestly, my biggest annoyance with the Volt is how GM basically p*ssed away a decent position in the plug-in space. I mean the gen 1 Volt came out in 2011...they ultimately canceled the 2nd gen in 2019 and then we got the Bolt which was OK (well, except for that whole "bursting into flames" thing), but in the wake of the Model 3 has become a niche "bargain" EV. It will be 2023 before GM deliver the Lyriq in any real volume...12 years after the 1st gen Volt hit the scene...ouch GM, ouch.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My two Prius were reasonably reliable. The 2001 needed a battery after a few years ($3000 installed), and the 2004 had a software issue that would cause the car to stop while driving. I don't know the total because Denise totaled both of them. (2001, 2001-2012) (2004, 2004-2013).

Is Denise your wife? Is she OK? You should seriously think about getting her a Tesla - better survival odds.

Imagine this in a Prius. The exact moment I was super glad I was in a Tesla. I walked away with a nice airbag hickey on the left arm is all.
(I couldn't help but play the safety card. That's my old Model Y in the picture, personal experience. The movie is even better.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I assume we'll resume our regularly scheduled financial programming on Monday, but until then, I'll chime in on the whole PHEV with my experience.

I know right, what got into me? I do think this is more related than not - time will tell.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

This is a fair point.

But it is hard to see the Repubs expending the political capital (and they would definitely need to expend) necessary to repeal this if they storm the Capitol with control of the entire government in 2.5 years. Why?

1). First let us thank Joe Manchin for forcing the inclusion of details and provisions that make the fossils and large lobbyist paying OEMs so happy with it.

2). We are talking about a forty billion dollar per year budget (this has been a changing number in different news sources) item overall. The specific parts that we are happy with are probably much less than that. The US spends more than that on random military projects on a biweekly basis (Am I exaggerating a bit? I dunno, that is a big black hole with few details allowed to people like me. Don’t think so. We have about two trillion unaccounted for from the Iraq war. Doesn’t seem anyone cares.). While the price may explode if BEVs continue to explode, this only means that it is popular!

3). 2.5 years from now is a long time with the S curve kicking in. I believe that many Americans across all states will be planning on using the credit to purchase their next car, probably their first electric car, and will not be happy to see their politicians suddenly pull the rug out from under them. This will also apply to the Solar and Wind ITC, both on a retail and commercial level. Adoption rates will be skyrocketing. Entities from many different corners of the economy would push back.

4). Again 2.5 years is a long time from now. How big is Tesla at this point? How big is the BEV industry overall in the US? How do all the OEMs feel about the credit? How does Toyota feel about the credit? How does the ramping solar industry (much of it in red states) suddenly present in the USA feel about it? How many jobs are dependent on it?

5). 2.5 years from now will anyone remember where this tax credit came from? Can’t the Repubs just take credit for it? “If not for our brave resistance to craft this bill and it’s fine details, it would be a fat boondoggle for green washing by Chinese infiltrators, instead it leads the US surge into the future.” Or something like that.

Pretty sure I left some stuff out, but based on this I am cautiously optimistic that whatever passes here will be on the books for at least a decade. The path of least resistance will be to move on to the ‘crisis’ of the day and deal with that.

The growth of EVs have gone something like 2%->4%->8%->16%->32%->64% (yes, only Norway has gotten that far yet) in almost every country. Does it really seem like the US will be much different? A number of European countries have already started to adjust the EV rebates as their percentages creep up.

Might take longer than 2½ years but no matter who's in power there won't be a $7,500 rebate until 2032.

 

[samppa]

The growth of EVs have gone something like 2%->4%->8%->16%->32%->64% (yes, only Norway has gotten that far yet) in almost every country. Does it really seem like the US will be much different? A number of European countries have already started to adjust the EV rebates as their percentages creep up.

Might take longer than 2½ years but no matter who's in power there won't be a $7,500 rebate until 2032.

Norway has no VAT on electric cars, so that's essentially a 25% discount on EVs.
It's a lot.

 

[2daMoon]

This is kinda cute...

A Cybertruck Mini, based upon the Model Y chassis.

Tesla "Cybertruck Mini” rendered on Model Y platform--and it kinda works

A "Tesla Cybertruck Mini" rendered on the Model Y platform has been designed by an EV enthusiast. It surprisingly works well.

www.teslarati.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is kinda cute...

A Cybertruck Mini, based upon the Model Y chassis.

Tesla "Cybertruck Mini” rendered on Model Y platform--and it kinda works

A "Tesla Cybertruck Mini" rendered on the Model Y platform has been designed by an EV enthusiast. It surprisingly works well.

www.teslarati.com

That 1000% does NOT work......

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Norway has no VAT on electric cars, so that's essentially a 25% discount on EVs.
It's a lot.

They also have a trillion dollar fund (from oil), and they have started to change other advantages. Many other European countries are following the same growth curve with much smaller incentives to begin with. So there was no 25% rebate needed, apart from maybe proving in one country that it could happen, and at this time a 13% (7500/55000) is hardly needed. It will be even less so with every year passing.