Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oneday]

OT Happy hot Sunday from the PNW! Hey as an owner of a fair amount of TSLA but not a Tesla (yet at least), I have a question for any Tesla owners whose rig used a heat pump for climate control. Can you turn on the A/C and/or hear remotely, so it will be relatively cool in the car when you get in? That would be awesome and inquiring minds want to know...

Thanks all and go longs!

Yes. With your phone, you can vent windows, and/or set cabin temp, you’ll get an alert when it reaches that temperature.

Edit: you can also tell it your departure time and it will bring your car to desired temperature for that time. I use this for my morning drive to work, haven’t tried it for an afternoon trip but assume it would work.

 

[Tronguy]

Yes. With your phone, you can vent windows, and/or set cabin temp, you’ll get an alert when it reaches that temperature.

Not to mention having a scheduled time/date as to when the car will be ready to drive, including climate and/or charging. Funky, these software engineers.

 

[wipster]

Yes. With your phone, you can vent windows, and/or set cabin temp, you’ll get an alert when it reaches that temperature.

Thanks for the quick response! I figured you could but didn't know for sure. Now I have something more to look forward to!

 

[WattsHappening]

OT Happy hot Sunday from the PNW! Hey as an owner of a fair amount of TSLA but not a Tesla (yet at least), I have a question for any Tesla owners whose rig uses a heat pump for climate control. Can you turn on the A/C and/or hear remotely, so it will be relatively cool in the car when you get in? That would be awesome and inquiring minds want to know...

Thanks all and go longs!

I was surprised to read that you don't own a Tesla. As others have correctly mentioned, owning one will reinforce your decision to own TSLA.

As @oneday stated, remote cabin temperature control is one of the under-appreciated features of Teslas. That and the cabin overheat protection, which turns on the A/C when the cabin temperature reaches a user-set level, make parking in the heat much more bearable.

I hope you were able to stay cool during yet another (and getting more common) massive heat wave in the PNW.

 

[oneday]

Thanks for the quick response! I figured you could but didn't know for sure. Now I have something more to look forward to!

I don’t use the feature too often in the Bay Area, not too necessary. Mainly when I have driving companions and to show off. Pretty cool when it’s 80F plus out and when you get in the car it’s 68F.

However I was in Reno on Wednesday and had multiple stops in the area, it was about 104F, first stop I got back to the car and it was oppressively hot. The next 5 stops I set the cabin temp from the app about 5 minutes before getting back in the car. Truly luxury!

 

[MP3Mike]

Pricing above the cap won't be a problem either. If needed, Tesla can play with pricing in the US the way it did in Canada. They just sell a crippled version to get under the cap. Then after the sale you can pay more to unlock more range.

Not the same situation at all. In Canada that made all Model 3s qualify and they did not, and still will not, offer an unlock.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

The Prius Gen 3 I sold in 2021 when we bought the Y (December, 2010 vintage) has 150,000 miles on it, the original battery, and is still going strong. Admittedly, it's not a Plug-in. And it did have a catastrophic inverter failure, under warranty, about two years after getting it. (The dangers of a first model year and interesting bits with how-fast-can-one-heat-up-that-transistor follies.)

But, as a beater, it wasn't bad. However, now's the time to mention that all hybrids are not built alike. The Toyota Priuses and such have a full-time hybrid system. Like a Tesla, there's but One Gear, although the pair of motor-generators and planetary gear sets comprise an infinitely variable transmission. And that's the point: Without the motor-generators doing their thing, the car literally cannot move. There's no push-starting, period, with a Prius, ICE or not.

So, when the car is running, energy flows from the ICE and splits: Some of it into a mechanical shaft that hits the drive train and second motor-generator, and the rest into the first motor generator, when creates electrical energy (that is, well, connected to the battery, more or less) that goes to the second motor generator, which then also torques that shaft and the drive train. So, the battery's a sump of energy that can be discharged to provide acceleration (Atkinson ICE's have lousy torque), charged up by the ICE by the energy passing by on its way from motor-generator 1 to motor-generator 2, or charged when braking or rolling downhill. A non PHEV version's state of charge runs back and forth (on the display) between 5% and 100%, but hovers around 80% or so when just driving straight ahead. I believe the PHEV version has a bigger battery and will go down to 50% or something before the ICE kicks in.

However, there're "Hybrids" out there from various manufacturers that do silly things like having an electric motor in place of the starter motor, where said electric motor simply gears into the teeth on the flywheel where the starter motor would have been. Otherwise, it's a bog-standard ICE with an automatic transmission. These types get the Hybrid designation because there is an electric motor in the drivetrain: But all that motor does is gives one a bit more acceleration when one punches it. And the gas mileage is about the same as an ICE or even worse.

One can make a bit of an argument that a Prius is actually simpler than an ICE because, well, the transmission case isn't an automatic with a torque converter and all those gears to shift. Except there are electronics in there, so maybe it's a wash. And the oil pump, water pump, and air conditioning are all electric based, useful when turning the ICE on and off all the time.

I was always under the impression that all hybrids were basically an ICE driveline, with a conventional transmission and driveline, with an electric motor piggybacked in parallel. A while back I started studying Toyota's "Hybrid Synergy Drive". As you said, it's a pretty fascinating system, with a motor/generator coupled to the system, utilizing the motor somewhat like a torque converter/clutch when in "ICE mode". Pretty interesting approach, and far less mechanical mechanism than I realized. From everything I've read they are one of the most reliable and long lasting vehicles available. I need to learn more about their PHEV version. Not looking to buying one necessarily, but I find the engineering interesting.

 

[jerry33]

Is Denise your wife? Is she OK? You should seriously think about getting her a Tesla - better survival odds.

Imagine this in a Prius. The exact moment I was super glad I was in a Tesla. I walked away with a nice airbag hickey on the left arm is all.
(I couldn't help but play the safety card. That's my old Model Y in the picture, personal experience. The movie is even better.)

View attachment 835082

She's fine. It doesn't take a lot to total ten year old cars. However, there were no small Teslas when she had the last accident, so she has a Leaf now. (She's only done major damage to it once, but at least she didn't hit another car this time.) A Y is on order, but won't arrive till next year.

 

[H Mak]

Holy Toledo . . . .I Just Completed My First Pass at Q3 & Q4 . . . . .It's Going to Rain Money.
Despite the Austin/Berlin Money Furnaces, Tesla should deliver $4.2b FCF in Q3 and $5.0b in Q4.
I think this may shock everyone on Wall Street as Tesla's previous high was $2.8b in Q4 2021.
The huge jump is mainly driven by the 383,000 deliveries in Q3 and 455,000 in Q4. These deliveries would give Tesla 50% growth for the year over 2021.
I will continue to update my model as new information comes in.
For finance nerds, FCF details are here: FCF DETAILS

View attachment 835107

Wow. Thanks for posting. When you bare in mind Tesla's capital & reserves (stockholders equity) is only $38bn, then to generate $9bn in free cash flow in six months (annualised $18bn) is very very very impressive. Unprecedented?

If I had $38bn to spend and someone offered me an annual cash return of $18bn, I might just be tempted

You could point out that Tesla's liabilities, $30bn, are also being used to fund the business. Fair enough, so that brings the total to $68bn. I'm still tempted

To put it another way, what a business to invest in. Oh, I already am

 

[petit_bateau]

I am sure you are absolutely correct about tracking - it is bad enough in NoAm, with vehicular parts cross-crossing multiple times twixt CA-US-MX.
For the record, though, I purposely did not write Giga-anything. I referred solely to the concept of acquiring for pennies an extant - if smaller - plant. Not everything Tesla creates must be at {that prefix}-scale to be economically viable.

There may come a time when Tesla needs to create a assembly-plant archetype to suit the smaller out-of-the-way cul-de-sac markets such as UK.

But not, I think, yet.

 

[wipster]

I was surprised to read that you don't own a Tesla. As others have correctly mentioned, owning one will reinforce your decision to own TSLA.

As @oneday stated, remote cabin temperature control is one of the under-appreciated features of Teslas. That and the cabin overheat protection, which turns on the A/C when the cabin temperature reaches a user-set level, make parking in the heat much more bearable.

I hope you were able to stay cool during yet another (and getting more common) massive heat wave in the PNW.

Thanks! With the 112° temperature outside today, owning a Tesla would be quite desirable! The only reason I don't yet own one is some physical limitations, but hopefully we'll be able to tackle them in the relatively short future. And unlike my boat loving relatives who drove over to watch the Hydros on the mighty Columbia today, I'm going to use channel 786 in the 74° comfort of my living room... maybe they'll flip another one today!

 

[Captkerosene]

Doesn't feel that way when the approach to conversation comes across with negativity.

Context: We've been discussing the topics you've brought up for 10+ years.

We should all strive to be more polite, respectful and humble.

I'm not a good writer and can be lazy. It takes me forever to scratch out a coherent comment as it is. A good example would be my recent comment that Andrej Karpathy was fired. I didn't do a good job on that post. A more nuanced post would have stated that after five years of missed FSD deadlines and public embarrassment for Elon, as well as Andrej showing a desire to maybe have a little more free time and work on some other things, maybe Elon suggested to him that it was time to give some of the younger blood a chance to move the projects along.

 

[Big Time]

The higher the stock is pre-split announcement, seemingly that should be our new "Base" sort of like how last split it was announced at(correct me if im wrong) 250 range(split adjusted).

Seams like the price going into the split announcement would mentally matter for a lot of traders.

How do you guys/girls/cats view this? I know its just a pizza cut into equal slices, but do our prices going in/out of announcement day stand a chance to exponentially change the stock price once the split and after effects have taken place?

 

[jkirkwood001]

...
On a different note, I want a Tesla (haven't made the leap yet) and looked at renting one for a trip to my brother's place in Alabama (Vernon), from my place in East TN. Only problem, the nearest DCFC to his place remotely on my route (still about 30 miles out of the way) is about 125 miles from his place, so 250 miles round trip. There aren't any commercial level 2 chargers in his small town (or at his house) and I don't want to presume to ask to plug in an extension cord to level 1 charge at his house. So yeah, there is some infrastructure build-out to be done to make BEVs a little more universally practical, especially in smaller towns/remote areas (regarding DCFC). At my home, I'm an hour and a quarter from the nearest DCFC. Not an issue with a home charger, but a real issue for a renter. My previous home in Idaho was much more remote, there were a lot of loops in N. ID and N. Montana where ABRP threw up it's hands. But again, no doubt it's coming. Still, places like this are where PHEV with home charging could operate as a EV for normal, daily commuting, and only count on the ICE for trips, AT THIS TIME.

On my most recent road trip (Ottawa > Toronto > Chicago > remote Upper Peninsula ["UP"] > The Sault > home), I brought an extension cord. Besides the easy Superchargers, at several AirBnBs along the way, I texted the hosts in advance to ask if I could plug in overnight. The hosts were all wary because they'd never had a customer ask, and didn't know if they needed something special. They all did allow it without any fuss. One was actually excited enough to post on AirBNB how proud they were to have helped out their EV guest! (this promotes their listing) Another host at a farmhouse inn we stayed at in Northern Michigan did the math before I got there, and was shocked to figure out it would cost her only about US$1.50 to let us to plug in overnight, so she was happy to! I mean, that's about the same as the cup of coffee she brewed for me in the morning! Being able to plug in at her place to gain ~30% battery saved us half a Supercharger stop along the way, and helped us avoid going off-route a bit.

TL;DR: Asking someone to let you plug in overnight can be a bonding opportunity.

 

[petit_bateau]

I think you were referring to this video.
cc: @captkerosene

I can’t find the talk, but tesla employees did a fairly in depth discussion of the software engineering behind autobidder in the UK a couple years ago. There are other products from stationary storage companies that compete with tesla, but they were not made in a few days. No one can copy what tesla has in autobidder in a few days time.

If I were to look for where tesla energy might not be so great from an investment point of view, I would, maybe, kind of agree with you that other companies will be able to copy what Tesla’s doing. Not even a small fraction as easily as you seem to assume it is, but there are smart people that don’t work for tesla and they also want to compete.

Having an EE background and (some) chemistry knowledge makes it pretty clear to me that what tesla is doing is underappreciated. You can’t simply copy what they’re doing. There’s so much deep engineering and scientific knowledge required and somehow tesla seems to attract universal genius types who can easily communicate how their part of the problem (cells, power electronics, software engineering, AI) need to interface robustly and efficiently.

My worst case for tesla energy in the future is they’re a revenue monster without very high profits. That’s still gonna be a ton of money sloshing around and a lot of societal/political power behind it.

There are other companies that do equivalent pieces of software. They tend to not publicise them in general press as the client set is ordinarily quite small - major (or minor) utilities and the like. That is why Tesla doesn't promote Autobidder much in manistream media. You want it to be selling on the QT, and you and your clients making big $$ on the QT, with no public ripples. Even doing proper due diligence to buy software like this generally involves getting snarled up in so many NDAs you can't speak to your mother for years. I'm not convinced there is anything particularly clever in Tesla's software. I've developed this stuff, and looked at other peoples' stuff., and there are lots of clever people out there. A lot of what does get to the outside media is badge-engineered versions of someone else's stuff .....

Examples - and you can figure out whether these are or are not badged:

Energy storage - RES

www.res-group.com

Octopus Energy Group boosts Kraken’s capabilities with innovative ‘EnTech’ software

octopus.energy

 

[UkNorthampton]

Training Artificial Intelligence - feed it 33 YEARS of youtube tutorials plus reading wiki & reddit. Ingesting & processing that might not take very long.

Minecraft/Nvidia in this case, but how many hours of driver tuition videos are there? Certainly loads in the UK. Use language recognition + learner drivers being instructed, corrected & examined (mock tests). Add plenty of negative stuff to avoid (again youtube videos, Police shows, Wham Bam Teslacam).

Minecraft AI training/results-

Driving fault/mock test UK -

Optimus DoJo might be fed hundreds of years of cooking, gardening, farming, surgery, car wrapping videos plus all the written info on a subject. Even set it up on the Munro Live channel and the result might be redesigned cars with giant castings and no screw fixings. The speed, depth and breadth of learning might be phenomenal (eventually).

 

[wtlloyd]

Looking at competitive advantages is a way to judge a business. Basically, the best businesses have high margins and big moats around them. You can raise prices and your customers have no choice but to pay. Additionally, your suppliers (including employees) don't have that ability. Not being subject to government price controls is the last thing that needs to be in place. What makes a great business even better is the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. (A store can be a great business, but a store that can be replicated around the world is far more valuable.) I've stated that I don't see much in the way of competitive advantages for Tesla in the energy business. Let me explain why:

Tesla energy will be using LFP batteries. We don't make LFP batteries. We contract that out to others, mostly Chinese I assume. CATL, BYD? (Happy to be corrected on this if I'm wrong.) Our suppliers are the ones with special skills and knowledge in this space. Is slapping a Tesla badge on their products going to be profitable for Tesla? I don't know why it would be. Can we compete with low cost manufacturing in China on this product? Why would we even want to try when we have other products where we do have huge advantages and the Tesla badge really means something?

To be honest, I don't understand Autobidder. I think I know kinda what it does but don't understand what makes it so special. This looks like something that a good software team could bang out in a few days. Do we have some special patents or do we control access to power markets where others are excluded? Maybe someone could explain what makes it special?

I suppose the new legislation could help Tesla Energy too. I don't really see how though. Won't the Chinese manufacturers just build their factories in the US to gain access to that market? In other places, they'll just build in China and export their systems.

I make a lot of negative comments about Tesla/TSLA even though I own a big chunk of the stock and am very positive on the company. I'm not a troll and I don't enjoy conflict. I don't like being called names, but it only stings if it's from posters I respect. At times, I'll make a negative comment (like above) in order to spur a discussion on a subject. See: Socratic method. Lots of great minds here and my motivation is more often to learn than to try and educate. If I'm wrong, I want to know ... and know why. I also don't think that cheerleading and trying to cancel those who wish to examine the negatives of the company are doing this board any favors. Wishing for a higher stock price doesn't work. "Good luck to Tesla longs" comments get an automatic dislike from me even though I have nothing against the sentiment or the poster. A better post would be "Ten reasons why TSLA will fail." I want to know if there is something that I need to worry about. You don't hear the bullet that kills you, so that's what you need to be watching out for. That's where people should be spending at least some of their time. That's where I spend a lot of my time.

Automatic dislikes, you say? That's a thing? Good to know, good to know.

 

[Tronguy]

I was always under the impression that all hybrids were basically an ICE driveline, with a conventional transmission and driveline, with an electric motor piggybacked in parallel. A while back I started studying Toyota's "Hybrid Synergy Drive". As you said, it's a pretty fascinating system, with a motor/generator coupled to the system, utilizing the motor somewhat like a torque converter/clutch when in "ICE mode". Pretty interesting approach, and far less mechanical mechanism than I realized. From everything I've read they are one of the most reliable and long lasting vehicles available. I need to learn more about their PHEV version. Not looking to buying one necessarily, but I find the engineering interesting.

Minor additional comment, then this all has to disappear off the investors' forum.

The magic in a Prius is in this planetary gear set. Three things are connected: A shaft, hitting the gears in the center; an electric motor, connected to (I think) a ring attached to the planetary gears; and the ICE, which is directly connected to a ring hitting the outside of the planetary gears. The other end of that shaft goes into the second motor and is directly hooked into (fixed) gears that drive the front wheels.

The ICE can run without the car actually moving (charging the battery.. or not); the ICE can be off while the motor generators drive the car forward or in reverse; and any of the above, at any time. There's even use cases when going downhill at 65 mph where the motor-generators spin the ICE with the valves closed and the ignition off, in order to keep the motor-generators from overspeeding . There is a small clutch plate between the ICE and the planetary gear set, but its only purpose is to provide a bit of slippage if the ICE stops or starts abruptly; one can't disengage that clutch, it's fixed.

But the motor-generators in the Prius have enough torque in them to flip a person the length of a football field or something. When Toyota wants to start the engine, they literally spin the ICE with the motors before applying spark and gas. So, if one is traveling in a straight line at a steady speed or slowing down, the car will stop the ICE and run on motor generators alone. And turn the ICE back on when needed for acceleration or keeping the battery from getting too low. Seriously, a driver rarely even notices the engine starting and stopping; software control of the motor-generators does this activity very smoothly. Note that not all hybrids are like this, although some approach it.

The Atkinson ICE is part of the fun. Atkinson's get 20%+ better efficiency or something converting gasoline to kinetic energy and (CO2+H2O) than a normal Otto-cycle ICE. That's how Priuses pull off getting 50 mpg chugging down an interstate at 65 mph. And why other Toyotas with Synergy drive (Camry's, what-all) get similarly good numbers.

In the realm of silly party tricks, there are Prius owners who connect up a relatively high power 12V to 120 VAC inverter to the car's 12V battery and use it during city power outages, with the car on. The car's main traction battery goes from (I think) 300V down to 12 through an efficient inverter, keeping the 12V battery charged; when the traction battery gets low enough, the car starts the ICE and charges the traction battery back up, then turns the ICE off; lather, rinse, repeat. I think I did the calculations once upon a time and the car's a more efficient source of 120 VAC by a factor of two or something to a Home Depot gas-fired electric generator. Albeit that there are limits; I think I figured I could run the hot water heater and house refrigerator that way, but not much else.

All well and good: But the Tesla is still cheaper to run, at least if one is charging at home or with solar (both true in my case); in terms of straight cash to go down the road, a Tesla with Superchargers and a gas-fired Prius are about the same. Except - the Prius still needs oil changes every 10,000 miles. And a Prius doesn't have as much internal storage as the M3 daily driver I chug around with over here. Back seats in the Prius are more comfortable than M3 back seats, too, I guess.

In the end, though, Priuses simply aren't as good for the environment as a BEV: Make no mistake, that's gasoline in, carbon dioxide out, just like every other ICE out there. A PHEV is marginally better, so long as one charges it. But it's still emitting CO2.

 

[WattsHappening]

I'm not a good writer and can be lazy. It takes me forever to scratch out a coherent comment as it is. A good example would be my recent comment that Andrej Karpathy was fired. I didn't do a good job on that post. A more nuanced post would have stated that after five years of missed FSD deadlines and public embarrassment for Elon, as well as Andrej showing a desire to maybe have a little more free time and work on some other things, maybe Elon suggested to him that it was time to give some of the younger blood a chance to move the projects along.

You consider that nuanced?

 

[Thekiwi]

That's technically true, but I can't see Republicans passing a bill that raises taxes on the middle class. And that's how Democrats would frame it.

You have a short memory - last time GOP controlled both congress and the presidency they attempted to eliminate healthcare subsidies for tens of millions of Americans - the attempt famously blocked by John McCains decisive thumbs down vote.

Tesla should indeed not make any long term planning decisions based on an assumption that this EV credit is going to be around for 10 years.

And it isn’t just from the right that Tesla has to worry about - if Tesla becomes as profitable as we all expect in the very near future, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an amendment to the bill from the left that excluded manufacturers with another total vehicle cap limit that in reality would only impact Tesla (something like a 5 or 10 million cap would give everyone else runway through 2032, but exclude Tesla by mid-decade). Alternatively it could be a rising annual cap structure that suits everyone else but Tesla.