Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wtlloyd]

Re: next Gigafactory -
recall that Tesla pulled out of India this year, after preliminary staffing and supply research the last year or two. They are not going back. India government refused to reduce 100% tariff on imports, that meant Tesla could not test the market beyond super high end buyers. Large population, no way to gauge buying potential, however.
Indonesia, however, has sent delegations to Texas and met repeatedly with Tesla discussing their rich resources of tin, nickel, cobalt and bauxite.
They are also potentially a rare earth mineral source.
"In terms of market size, Indonesia is the biggest car market in Southeast Asia and ASEAN. Indonesia accounts for about one-third of total annual car sales in ASEAN, followed by Thailand on second position. Indonesia not only has a large population (258 million inhabitants) but is also characterized by having a rapidly expanding middle class. Together, these two factors create a powerful consumer force."

Automotive Manufacturing Industry Indonesia - Car Sales | Indonesia Investments

The automotive industry of Indonesia is an important strength of the country's manufacturing sector. Here we present an analysis and overview of Indonesia's car industry.

www.indonesia-investments.com

 

[Skryll]

Stock Splits in a bull market helped many large cap companies, including Tesla obviously.

Stock splits in the current bear market haven’t really helped any other large cap companies lately that did them.

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what happens with TSLA - but I ain’t holding my breath that it will juice the stock price anywhere near what it did last time.

We will see. Tesla has faced an unusual amount of bad actors in the financial industry and last time tesla bailed them out with a cap raise. Maybe they won't this time.

 

[henchman24]

Your options will have a weird strike price and most likely lose liquidity as people don't like to trade those. If you are looking to exercise them then it doesn't matter, but if you are trading them these options might lose some value.

The in the money (or close) ones will be fine in that area…. But those out of the money will lose quite a bit of liquidity.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Management guidance has been that chip constraints are expected to ease by the end of this year. They’ve said this in regard to questions about when 4680 cell supply becomes the limiting factor.

Specifically(or the opposite really), I believe Elon guided that cell supply will be the constraint after the chip issues abate. I don't recall 4680 being mentioned.

 

[EVCollies]

Giga-Gwadar: deep sea port at terminus of CPEC. Pure battery factory, to supply Europe and Middle East one way and land route to Western China…

Giga factories take in raw resources and produces ready to use products.

Sadly, I disagree on Brazil. The skilled workforce is aging, and many qualified engineers have been emigrating. There is a large auto industry, and some, notably CAOA have managed excellent quality for the vehicles they build. However, there is not a good way to absorb 1.5 million or more in all of Mercosur. However, a plant in Mexico could supply Mercosur and all of North America. A Mexican plant seems likely to be quite high on the consideration list.

I fear the media would present a factory in Mexico to replace US production when the goal is South America production.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Not quite sure what you mean. I have a June 2024 call @$2275 strike. I don’t intend to exercise, but sell at a later date. $2275 split into 3 is $758.33. That’s not ending in an increment of $25. So are they going to have that weird one thrown in the mix for the next 2 years. (Along with all the others that won’t divide evenly)

If that were mine, OCD would probably force me to sell it before the split and buy a June '24 $2100C.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sadly, I disagree on Brazil. The skilled workforce is aging, and many qualified engineers have been emigrating. There is a large auto industry, and some, notably CAOA have managed excellent quality for the vehicles they build. However, there is not a good way to absorb 1.5 million or more in all of Mercosur. However, a plant in Mexico could supply Mercosur and all of North America. A Mexican plant seems likely to be quite high on the consideration list.

The question used to be "what came 1st, the chicken or the egg?" Going forward, I think the question will be "what came first, the Gigafactory or the Teslabot?"

Unlimited, scalable, and dependable labour could make factories practical even where no infrastructure exists. Like on Mars, which I think is the whole idea.

Cheers!

 

[EVWatcher]

The question used to be "what came 1st, the chicken or the egg?" Going forward, I think the question will be "what came first, the Gigafactory or the Teslabot?"

Unlimited, scalable, and dependable labour could make factories practical even where no infrastructure exists. Like on Mars, which I think is the whole idea.

Cheers!

Or Nevada

 

[StealthP3D]

The in the money (or close) ones will be fine in that area…. But those out of the money will lose quite a bit of liquidity.

People keep saying this but any liquidity lost on a stock with options traded as heavily as TSLA will be measured in pennies. You would need hundreds of contracts for it to amount to much. It's a nothingburger. @mongo had it right, any price mismatch results in opportunity. It's self-equalizing.

 

[dhanson865]

Right, but Tesla's targets are always on the up-swing, as the chemistry, etc. allows for improved longevity.

It's like you never heard about or were brainwashed to forget that the 90 kWh rev A packs ever existed.

 

[henchman24]

People keep saying this but any liquidity lost on a stock with options traded as heavily as TSLA will be measured in pennies. You would need hundreds of contracts for it to amount to much. It's a nothingburger. Mongo had it right, any price mismatch results in opportunity. It's self-equalizing.

For out of the money… there isn’t much liquidity to begin with, it simply lowers it further. It isn’t going to crash them, but selling them simply is harder… not that it’ll be significantly undervalued. If they are in the money or close, liquidity is usually there.

 

[Gigapress]

Specifically(or the opposite really), I believe Elon guided that cell supply will be the constraint after the chip issues abate. I don't recall 4680 being mentioned.

Right, that’s what I meant. When asked if 4680 ramp is a risk to production plans, Elon and Drew said that chips are the constraint until end of 2022 or maybe beginning of 2023.

It sounds like chip constraints are still expected to ease by Q4 and also that the 4680 ramp is going pretty well, so I think that the run rate will be substantially above 2M vehicles by December.

 

[Thekiwi]

Actually helped Amzn

Your chart doesn’t even show the Amazon stock split which happened in early June - after which the stock went down and stayed down for weeks.

 

[printf42]

The absolute worst case outcome is California bans Tesla from selling vehicles in the state, but I don’t see that happening.

Anyone who follows FSD closely should be well aware of the leaked emails and letters between Tesla and the California DMV, and the writing was kinda on the wall. In the letters to the DMV, Tesla plainly stated that FSD in its current form was only intended to be deployed to the full fleet as a Level 2 ADAS and that further development would require more iterative processes — nobody even knows what that looks like right now.

Sorry I asked for possible worst outcome not impossible ones.

Personally I think DMV is overreaching and worst case I can thinking of is Tesla forced to rename Autopilot to Not-autopilot. Possibly open the door for customers to return the feature and get partial refund, but I don’t think any real Tesla user would do that.

But I would like to hear what people familiar with the matter would say.

 

[Thomas Edison]

Your options will have a weird strike price and most likely lose liquidity as people don't like to trade those. If you are looking to exercise them then it doesn't matter, but if you are trading them these options might lose some value.

That’s what I thought

 

[Thomas Edison]

If that were mine, OCD would probably force me to sell it before the split and buy a June '24 $2100C.

That’s part of the reason I was asking . Might just be what I end up doing.

 

[dhanson865]

Cute. I wasn't brainwashed.

You forget that the 90 kwh Rev A pack came out shortly after the 85, and was discontinued over 5 years ago (the time-frame I quoted).

90 pack aside, there is clear and well-defined trend towards packs with greater longevity, and decreased degradation.



Why to people want to quote an outlier to try to establish a counter argument to a trend? Serious question.

Because you made an unqualified statement.

I literally quoted it and you still don't see it.

Right, but Tesla's targets are always on the up-swing, as the chemistry, etc. allows for improved longevity.

There is nothing in post #356,449 that says anything at all about a time frame.

It's that lack of time frame qualification that made the post stick out enough for me to reply to it.

It's been more than an hour so either report your own post to get it edited or consider your reply to me good enough to explain the time frame you meant. I'll drop it since you pointed out your intended time frame.

I also removed the rating I made on that post.

 

[oneday]

Ok we have another hit piece:


Not going to link to the original article, but could someone who’s “familiar with the matter” tell what’s the likely and worst case outcome?

Hopefully something has come of this since May.

 

[dhanson865]

Post LITERALLY above that one, quotes my original post on the subject, which has the time frame.

EDIT - this post was the one that StealthP3D:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Cheer up y'all.....at least $TSLA is up 15 of the last 18 trading sessions (including today) 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 Yup today sucks... but we are literally where we started last Friday. We will get a bump when the 8k is filed and the split is formally announced... so not really worried about today.

teslamotorsclub.com

It was a DETAILED and SPECIFIC post.

As I said the post I quoted didn't mention a time frame, I acknowledged that two posts above that does mention a time frame (and that I saw that after you pointed it out). You asked why I made the reply I did and I've explained that. You don't need to document it further.

I went back and removed the rating I made on that post.

 

[Tim S]

Not quite sure what you mean. I have a June 2024 call @$2275 strike. I don’t intend to exercise, but sell at a later date. $2275 split into 3 is $758.33. That’s not ending in an increment of $25. So are they going to have that weird one thrown in the mix for the next 2 years. (Along with all the others that won’t divide evenly)

After the split, you will have 3 calls with a $758.33 strike price. Yes, there will be lots of weird strikes like that for the next couple of years. A 5-for-1 split would have been simpler.