Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tommy O]

Chips tho. We can have all the capacity we like, if the parts ain't there.....

FWIW, chip constraints have abated where we are. From common microcontrollers to LDOs and much else. Tesla may be limited by a shortage of a single type of chip, though. *shrugs*

 

[AndrewZ]

Ok we have another hit piece:


Not going to link to the original article, but could someone who’s “familiar with the matter” tell what’s the likely and worst case outcome?

The absolute worst case outcome is California bans Tesla from selling vehicles in the state, but I don’t see that happening.

Anyone who follows FSD closely should be well aware of the leaked emails and letters between Tesla and the California DMV, and the writing was kinda on the wall. In the letters to the DMV, Tesla plainly stated that FSD in its current form was only intended to be deployed to the full fleet as a Level 2 ADAS and that further development would require more iterative processes — nobody even knows what that looks like right now.

 

[Gigapress]

It would be strange if Tesla did debt financing of new factories, and a share buy back,

We have seen very large factories in Berlin and Austin built while paying down debt, with covid disruptions, supply-chain issues and raw materials inflation.

The fact that Tesla is considering a share buy back means they think excess cash will be piling up even while building new factories.

My explanation - Motley Fool must have tuned in briefly, and only caught one part of the meeting.

My explanation- The sole purpose of Motley Fool articles is to lure in unsophisticated novice investors with crappy analysis that seems reasonable in order to get some of said investors to click on the link to their perpetual “Rare All-In Buy Alert” and/or this paragraph at the bottom of every article:

Before you consider [Insert company discussed in article] you'll want to hear this.

Our award-winning analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and [Insert company discussed in article] wasn't one of them.

The online investing service they've run for two decades, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has beaten the stock market by 3X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.

 

[Thekiwi]

Stock Splits in a bull market helped many large cap companies, including Tesla obviously.

Stock splits in the current bear market haven’t really helped any other large cap companies lately that did them.

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what happens with TSLA - but I ain’t holding my breath that it will juice the stock price anywhere near what it did last time.

 

[larmor]

I added by editing my previous post.

But basically this is different than Giga India. With Giga India, it doesn't really offer much incentive (tax-trety-wise) other than the India domestic market.

With Giga Latin... Tesla can serve the entire Latin America and not just the country the factory is located in.

Giga-Gwadar: deep sea port at terminus of CPEC. Pure battery factory, to supply Europe and Middle East one way and land route to Western China…

 

[lafrisbee]

I feel like an ant again...stock drops way lower than I thought maxpain was, and you guys are talking about Factories in the sky instead of the stock split date and how it will play out over the next two weeks.

 

[Gigapress]

Chips tho. We can have all the capacity we like, if the parts ain't there.....

Management guidance has been that chip constraints are expected to ease by the end of this year. They’ve said this in regard to questions about when 4680 cell supply becomes the limiting factor.

 

[Thomas Edison]

What does the stock split mean for my long term options? They don’t exactly spilt evenly into 3.

 

[thesmokingman]

Stock Splits in a bull market helped many large cap companies, including Tesla obviously.

Stock splits in the current bear market haven’t really helped any other large cap companies lately that did them.

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what happens with TSLA - but I ain’t holding my breath that it will juice the stock price anywhere near what it did last time.

Amazon's doing pretty well.

 

[unk45]

As far as I know, gmaps doesn't tell you where the cops are. Waze does this but users have to manually report it.

Tesla's system can detect cops automatically using its onboard AI hardware. And it can also detect things like pot holes, which Elon mentioned.

If Tesla is putting big resources behind its effort, this could be a really big deal. It's a tremendous feature that nobody else could match.

In some places, mine for example, Waze and Google maps are mostly identical, even including identical traffic alerts and road closures. Recently I was navigating with Google maps, my spouse was following the trip on Waze. Our destination street was suddenly closed due to an accident on the block. The event appeared simultaneously on both.

Prior to that event I was not quite positive that they were now almost identical, at least for Copacabana. The only difference for me is the upload of trips to my car. Google Maps can, but Waze only shares a link. Otherwise the primary data feeds seem to be from Waze users and vehicles that use Google Maps as native navigation.

Some of us may have more definitive information than I do. I hope so.

 

[henchman24]

What does the stock split mean for my long term options? They don’t exactly spilt evenly into 3.

Weird priced options for a while.

 

[printf42]

What does the stock split mean for my long term options? They don’t exactly spilt evenly into 3.

Don’t worry you wouldn’t lose anything to ether or gain anything from thin air.

Likely they would become options for TSLA-1, keep the same strike price and amount, only one TSLA-1 represents 3 TSLA. So if you exercise you get 300 new TSLA instead of 100 fictional TSLA-1.

 

[unk45]

If you take out AWS, the margins for the rest of Amazon are negative. Their online retailer business has never generated much more than low single digits margins in a good year.

No online retailer is going to be able to capture much more than a few single digits percentage of margin. Hell, Robotaxi EVs will probably lower transportation costs so much that online retailers in general become obsolete…

Not even Tesla? They are an online retailer, for my three cars and the odd accessory or trinket.

 

[SageBrush]

Careful, ad hominem attacks or shunning are the only acceptable responses to unpopular opinions. Any kind of debate might give a voice to the offender or their unfashionable views.

I don't care about popularity or fashion. I shun you because I think your posts are a waste of my time.

 

[unk45]

Spain can't get excess solar or wind energy to a wider market, with the very minor exception of Portugal. The reason is that France has de facto blocked high capacity transmission crossing the French/Spanish border, thereby preventing excess Spanish renewables from undercutting French nuclear. This acts to protect French nuclear both in its domestic market and its its natural adjacent markets. One can have long complicated debates about whether this should be permitted, but it is the reality. The practical upstream effect has been to inhibit the gowth of a solar and wind manufacturing industry in Spain, beyond that which might be justified by its domestic needs. As such this means that manufacturers in Spain have not been able to reach the necessary scale to compete with the Chinese. (Offshore cables might debottleneck this, they are endlessly proposed).

Despite that Spain has done a pretty fair job on decarbonisation so far.
La Moncloa. 27/12/2021. Spain meets European targets for renewables and energy efficiency in 2020 [Government/News]

The Spanish car plants can get their products to markets via rail and/or sea without a commensurate level of French throttling. These car plants have had both good and bad patches. Other good car plant candidates within the EU apart from Spain and which have the necessary size to asorb a Tesla facility, and cost-effective workforce are Poland (but a bit close to Germany), Bulgaria or Romania. Outside EU one could propose Ukraine (good, apart from a war) or Turkey (iffish under Erdogan, almost uninvestable) or UK (nightmare post-Brexit, don't go there). Perhaps Hungary (nightmare politics with Orban). All European governments will have the taxpayer cheque book at the ready.

Personally my bet is that Brazil is next up on the board. However I note that presidential elections are a two round affair and will take place in October this year. I have my head in my hands at the thought of a Bolsonaro vs Lula choice. Later this year might mean after that election has concluded.

Sadly, I disagree on Brazil. The skilled workforce is aging, and many qualified engineers have been emigrating. There is a large auto industry, and some, notably CAOA have managed excellent quality for the vehicles they build. However, there is not a good way to absorb 1.5 million or more in all of Mercosur. However, a plant in Mexico could supply Mercosur and all of North America. A Mexican plant seems likely to be quite high on the consideration list.

 

[Thomas Edison]

Don’t worry you wouldn’t lose anything to ether or gain anything from thin air.

Likely they would become options for TSLA-1, keep the same strike price and amount, only one TSLA-1 represents 3 TSLA. So if you exercise you get 300 new TSLA instead of 100 fictional TSLA-1.

Not quite sure what you mean. I have a June 2024 call @$2275 strike. I don’t intend to exercise, but sell at a later date. $2275 split into 3 is $758.33. That’s not ending in an increment of $25. So are they going to have that weird one thrown in the mix for the next 2 years. (Along with all the others that won’t divide evenly)

 

[SmokyPeat]

My explanation- The sole purpose of Motley Fool articles is to lure in unsophisticated novice investors with crappy analysis that seems reasonable in order to get some of said investors to click on the link to their perpetual “Rare All-In Buy Alert” and/or this paragraph at the bottom of every article:

Sounds about right. I would add that the two founding brothers at Motley Fool are quite bullish on Tesla. It's one of their semi secretive top ten must own stocks. And in all fairness, their top picks have outperformed the market handily for quite some time.

 

[bballshinobi]

What does the stock split mean for my long term options? They don’t exactly spilt evenly into 3.

Your options will have a weird strike price and most likely lose liquidity as people don't like to trade those. If you are looking to exercise them then it doesn't matter, but if you are trading them these options might lose some value.

 

[Richard007]

Stock Splits in a bull market helped many large cap companies, including Tesla obviously.

Stock splits in the current bear market haven’t really helped any other large cap companies lately that did them.

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what happens with TSLA - but I ain’t holding my breath that it will juice the stock price anywhere near what it did last time.

Actually helped Amzn

 

[mongo]

Don’t worry you wouldn’t lose anything to ether or gain anything from thin air.

Likely they would become options for TSLA-1, keep the same strike price and amount, only one TSLA-1 represents 3 TSLA. So if you exercise you get 300 new TSLA instead of 100 fictional TSLA-1.

It's an integer split, so each contract will turn into 3 contracts at 1/3 the strike.

Not quite sure what you mean. I have a June 2024 call @$2275 strike. I don’t intend to exercise, but sell at a later date. $2275 split into 3 is $758.33. That’s not ending in an increment of $25. So are they going to have that weird one thrown in the mix for the next 2 years. (Along with all the others that won’t divide evenly)

Yes, they will have weird pricing and there be a cash pay out due to the extra $0.01 on the strike. They will likely have less volume and slightly worse bid-ask spreads, but pricing should follow their neighbors (else there is opportunity).