Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

This is the time that I hear someone as pessimistic as am I, but with even more detail on aspects about which I knew little. A relative owns a company that makes plastic containers (shopping bags, prepared food containers etc). He's in Brazil, with Russia supporting President, so his supplies are becoming cheaper and more plentiful.

This is making it a certainty that Tesla will have increasing challenges obtaining all those plastic parts, just as Yoke cover deterioration is becoming an issue. Our technical problem is evaluating the impact on Tesla suppliers and Tesla itself, including things we don't think about, like the foam used in the 4680 structural pack.

There is, IMHO, huge disruption coming for global industries dependent on neon (Ukraine), Petroleum products (especially Russian natural gas), or water (a global disaster).

The only question is whether human ingenuity can cope with all this.
If not, just study Gibbon. Amazon.com: The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire eBook : Edward Gibbon, GP Editors: Kindle Store
Those who've studied the subject have studied Gibbon. The present question is whether the world is preparing for that. My personal views have been stated, and that if any respite happens it will be the work of Elon Musk and people like him. Hence long TSLA is my primary defense. Going off-grid simply helps us have energy consistently.

Could the US ship significant natural gas to Europe to make much of a difference this winter?

 

[UncaNed]

266 is 800
250 is 750 now

Both shorts/long might not realize it and we might get oversold conditions soon …

...$230 or a little below equates to the last dip below $700...

Edited from:
...$230 or a little below equates to the last dip below $600...
(oops - what was I thinking)

 

[Paracelsus]

Could the US ship significant natural gas to Europe to make much of a difference this winter?

Respectfully - this is the first post in a very long time that actually made me cringe.

 

[UncaNed]

WRT high gas and electricity prices in Europe, it is important to realise that many customers remain shielded from excessive prices because of long term contracts. I recently talked to a local small business owner who is switching his appliances from electricity to gas, because he happens to have a 5 year fixed price gas contract, and a variable electricity contract. That while gas has become much more expensive than electricity. We now also hear from companies with fixed price contracts selling back their energy on the market (that’s a license to print money).
We now live in a strange world where it is possible to pay 20x more for gas or electricity than your neighbour for the same service.
Our local news is now dominated by stories about businesses shutting down energy intensive production, replacing it by import, because these businesses didn’t have long term fixed price contracts and high energy prices make the production financially impossible. That demand (for gas and electricity) destruction may be enough to prevent gas and electricity shortages this winter, we ‘ll see. If that happens, I expect the energy prices to dive around the end of februari, because the speculation will have ended in certainty.

You better enjoy it quick! No doubt they'll soon go bankrupt.

 

[unk45]

Could the US ship significant natural gas to Europe to make much of a difference this winter?

Other people know more than do I. My understanding is that all LNG shipping capacity is in use, and Gazprom is one of the larger ones that will obviously not be used, Nord II would (will?) be used were they to be involved. Large portions of the existing capacity are devoted to Qatar.

Building both these carriers and the port infrastructure is a multi-year process even in the most urgent situations.

So, I think the start answer is "no'.

It takes decades of short-sighted ignorant places to create a mess such as this one. Russia just exposed the reality that was not far away in the best of times.
@Paracelsus , as usual, manages wisdom in few words.

 

[brantse]

Could the US ship significant natural gas to Europe to make much of a difference this winter?

It's been a while since I looked into it, but the answer is no. I recall digging into this about 15 years ago, when Cheniere was building their export terminal and if I recall correctly, the total magnitude of exports was way less than 1% of our annual production/consumption. Ships just aren't a good transport mechanism for NG.

 

[unk45]

éX-Drivers those rescuers aren't.

So, you don't like melodramatic TV drama? FWIW, Big Sky is mostly filmed in New Mexico now, so even Helena, Montana is faked. Luckily for us in FSD one needs eye contact anyway.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Friday TSLA was supported by MM’s wanting to avoid paying out the put walls. Probably going to see TSLA drop like a rock this week and severely underperform the macros…….fun

 

[M|S|M MYP]

California's New Ban on Gasoline Cars Is Making Automakers Face Reality

There are finally real consequences for car companies that ignored climate change

time.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Berlin Y with Vin in the 19,000’s just registered in Norway today. I may be disappointed in Berlins growth rate, but at least they seem to be a stable 1400-1500/week

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gap filled.

And followed by the inevitiable technical selling, because... TSLA

 

[NicoV]

Other people know more than do I. My understanding is that all LNG shipping capacity is in use, and Gazprom is one of the larger ones that will obviously not be used, Nord II would (will?) be used were they to be involved. Large portions of the existing capacity are devoted to Qatar.

Building both these carriers and the port infrastructure is a multi-year process even in the most urgent situations.

So, I think the start answer is "no'.

It takes decades of short-sighted ignorant places to create a mess such as this one. Russia just exposed the reality that was not far away in the best of times.
@Paracelsus , as usual, manages wisdom in few words.

It's been a while since I looked into it, but the answer is no. I recall digging into this about 15 years ago, when Cheniere was building their export terminal and if I recall correctly, the total magnitude of exports was way less than 1% of our annual production/consumption. Ships just aren't a good transport mechanism for NG.

Already from the begin of the war, EU made agreements with the US to ship as much LNG as possible to Europe. Germany is building 2 LNG terminals at breakneck speed (now called ‘Tesla-speed’ in Germany), to be operational before the heating season starts.
This morning the news was that gas prices fell significantly on the news that Germany is a month ahead of plan in filling it’s gas storage: Gasprijs flink omlaag nu landen haast maken met vullen reserves
Basically it’s looking more and more likely Europe will largely succeed in preventing a gas shortage this winter.

 

[elasalle]

Already from the begin of the war, EU made agreements with the US to ship as much LNG as possible to Europe. Germany is building 2 LNG terminals at breakneck speed (now called ‘Tesla-speed’ in Germany), to be operational before the heating season starts.
This morning the news was that gas prices fell significantly on the news that Germany is a month ahead of plan in filling it’s gas storage: Gasprijs flink omlaag nu landen haast maken met vullen reserves
Basically it’s looking more and more likely Europe will largely succeed in preventing a gas shortage this winter.

If EU survives winter, final Russian chip they think they have falls.

 

[ggr]

View attachment 846579

California's New Ban on Gasoline Cars Is Making Automakers Face Reality

There are finally real consequences for car companies that ignored climate change

time.com

The entire article contained zero one mentions of Tesla. What a joke.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Friday TSLA was supported by MM’s wanting to avoid paying out the put walls. Probably going to see TSLA drop like a rock this week and severely underperform the macros…….fun

And here we are capping to avoid $300 this Friday. I think you underestimate the demand for shares!

 

[jamaatta]

Here in norther Europe we are quite optimistic. Next winter's gonna be tough, but there's light at the end of tunnel.

"Due to Olkiluoto 3 ( new nuclear reactor) and the new wind turbines, Finland's domestic electricity production is increasing so much that next year is expected to be Finland's first year of self-sufficiency since the 1960s."

Electricity market forecast: Price will triple by winter, but crash next spring

Olkiluoto 3 and new wind turbines are expected to bring Finland electricity self-sufficiency for the first time in decades.

yle.fi

 

[Artful Dodger]

As far as I know there's been no comment. But then I wouln't expect Elon to make a comment that specific about operations.

Indeed, and the more relevent question (from an investor's POV) is "how much of the final assembly needs to be done in Germany to qualify for 100% of the tariff reductions for locally manufactured cars?

I think that, as we speak, we are seeing video documentary evidence that large numbers of gigacastings are being stockpiled at all Tesla factories in time for the Winter 'heating season'. It'd be relatively inexpensive to ship those critical components to Berlin.

Chairs!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And here we are capping to avoid $300 this Friday. I think you underestimate the demand for shares!

Oh boy, Talking Mule just made a optimistic/bullish comments. Everybody better offload those weekly calls now

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Oh boy, Talking Mule just made a optimistic/bullish comments. Everybody better offload those weekly calls now

Should I not be bullish on the near future value of TSLA shares? If not, why?

 

[NicoV]

If EU survives winter, final Russian chip they think they have falls.

In the beginning of the war the European Commission publicly stated to eliminate two thirds of the dependence on Russian gas before winter. I always thought they were strategically sandbagging their targets. Keep importing as much gas as possible via pipelines from Russia in the hope to have enough reserves for the winter before Russia realises their energy weapon is gone. Once it’s gone, it’s really gone forever. No European politician will risk his career on promoting dependency on Russian gas again.