Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

His friend shouldn't have cheaped out and bought a Tesla instead.

I wonder how many of the EV-doubters come to the same conclusion?

 

[Artful Dodger]

My model has TSLA worth about $475 today and worth between $550 and $600 at end of 2023. Guess I need to figure how to model in thievery, propaganda, and deceit from those outside of Tesla.

Divide by two. Hedgies always try to take back half the SP gains, regardless of how high it climbs.

 

[Xepa777]

I don't expect Powerwalls to use 4680's.

Inside info: I’ve heard the next version of the Tesla Powerwall will be a sphere.

Speculation: this makes sense if it’s going from a wall mount to being on the floor, which aligns with the concept of using LFP for Powerwalls. This would free up more batteries for cars. And LFP comes from China, which fits well as the 30% subsidy for solar installations doesn’t care about battery origin. This also means Tesla can massively ramp up Power wall installation if they just use a bunch of LFP batteries.

LFP also means more cycle time, which is great for the ROI of a power wall and the ability to use it regularly as a VPP.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Inside info: I’ve heard the next version of the Tesla Powerwall will be a sphere.

Speculation: this makes sense if it’s going from a wall mount to being on the floor, which aligns with the concept of using LFP for Powerwalls. This would free up more batteries for cars. And LFP comes from China, which fits well as the 30% subsidy for solar installations doesn’t care about battery origin. This also means Tesla can massively ramp up Power wall installation if they just use a bunch of LFP batteries.

LFP also means more cycle time, which is great for the ROI of a power wall and the ability to use it regularly as a VPP.

A sphere? Really? I would have thought an inverted pyramid about as likely as a sphere.

 

[MikeC]

Wolfe Research upgrade, from hold to buy. Previous price target was $317.

 

[EV forever]

Take the time estimation with a grain of salt. I shipped a car across the country (a Leaf but that's irrelevant). They told me it would take about a week. I made arrangements with my real estate agent to take delivery. Twenty four hours later I get a call telling me they are there and asking where to drop the car. My real estate agent was on vacation so I had to contact my new boss and ask her to accept it. I caught her at work.... on a Sunday.

The only thing I can figure is the two drivers drove all the way across the country, then started dropping vehicles off on the way back.

Yikes! That would be a huge problem! We are not reaching there till Friday and the car goes on the truck tomorrow. Hopefully we get there before the car!

 

[Christine69420]

There has been a permit application for a large inbound warehouse at Gigafactory Austin (166 acres, 67 hectres), location within the site is not specified (although Joe Tegtmeyer has a couple of suggestions).

When Tesla started to build the 4680 factory building in Berlin they initially got permits for a warehouse. Then later updated the permits to a battery factory. Perhaps they did this two step dance so that they could start working on the build earlier since presumably a factory permit is a slower process than a warehouse. It could be that they are doing the same two step in Austin.

A bit speculative - time will tell.

It is a large building. So definitely not just a shed for forgotten tools.

 

[petit_bateau]

He was here in TMC making many outlandish claims as ValueAnalyst and in Twitter was ValueAnalyst1. I myself would not take him seriously. I believe this guy sits somewhere in Europe. Portugal? Spain?

In the call/transcript he says he lives in Austin. Maybe something changed. I'd love for his margin views to be correct, I just find them a little optimistic.

This year. Here’s pic of transcript.

View attachment 849357

 

[MikeAtkinson]

When Tesla started to build the 4680 factory building in Berlin they initially got permits for a warehouse. Then later updated the permits to a battery factory. Perhaps they did this two step dance so that they could start working on the build earlier since presumably a factory permit is a slower process than a warehouse. It could be that they are doing the same two step in Austin.

A bit speculative - time will tell.

It is a large building. So definitely not just a shed for forgotten tools.

Agreed, the original gigafactory permit for the current building was for 250 acres, so this is one massive project at 166 acres.

Since there are so few details, it could be just about anything:
- perhaps a Wearhouse on Wheels permament facility (although why they would need a building permit for that I'm not sure),
- perhaps a clone of the existing building (but built in two stages, so initial stage is smaller),
- perhaps a robotaxi manufacturing plant,
- perhaps a new stationary storage factory (including cell manufacturing),
- perhaps a cell materials production facility,
- perhaps Optimus Prime design, development, testing and production,
- maybe just a plain old wearhouse.

Or maybe something else I have not thought of.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In the call/transcript he says he lives in Austin. Maybe something changed. I'd love for his margin views to be correct, I just find them a little optimistic.

His earlier comments on TMC and twitter are available to read. I hold zero stock in his opinion - there's been a lot of outlandish claims in the past.

 

[MC3OZ]

Inside info: I’ve heard the next version of the Tesla Powerwall will be a sphere.

Speculation: this makes sense if it’s going from a wall mount to being on the floor, which aligns with the concept of using LFP for Powerwalls. This would free up more batteries for cars. And LFP comes from China, which fits well as the 30% subsidy for solar installations doesn’t care about battery origin. This also means Tesla can massively ramp up Power wall installation if they just use a bunch of LFP batteries.

LFP also means more cycle time, which is great for the ROI of a power wall and the ability to use it regularly as a VPP.

I have tried to guess where a sphere might be useful, I think possibly outside as rain and snow would fall off especially if the outside shell was metal and could be warmed up.

Floor mounted LFP Powerballs is a step forward.

If the Powerball can be deployed inside and outside that is a potential advantage.

I imagine a stainless steel ball in the garden might look nice.

 

[jw934]

Tesla has increased its US market share year-over-year from 2.1 percent in August 2021 to 4.1 percent this August.

InsideEVs
Tesla US Sales Up 105% Year-Over-Year Doubling Market Share In August
Sep 05, 2022 at 11:57am ET

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla has increased its US market share year-over-year from 2.1 percent in August 2021 to 4.1 percent this August.

InsideEVs
Tesla US Sales Up 105% Year-Over-Year Doubling Market Share In August
Sep 05, 2022 at 11:57am ET

But their market share hasn't increased in Pyongyang. Busted growth story.

 

[Thekiwi]

I have tried to guess where a sphere might be useful, I think possibly outside as rain and snow would fall off especially if the outside shell was metal and could be warmed up.

Floor mounted LFP Powerballs is a step forward.

If the Powerball can be deployed inside and outside that is a potential advantage.

I imagine a stainless steel ball in the garden might look nice.

Well there is one very wacky possibility I could think of.

A ball shaped battery could potentially be a Tesla Vision equipped autonomous moving battery that can roll/move itself to other locations as needed, provided the appropriate docking station is installed.

(I warned you all it is a wacky idea).

 

[MC3OZ]

Well there is one very wacky possibility I could think of.

A ball shaped battery could potentially be a Tesla Vision equipped autonomous moving battery that can roll/move itself to other locations as needed, provided the appropriate docking station is installed.

(I warned you all it is a wacky idea).

If the sphere is a joke, it is a very creative joke.

 

[willow_hiller]

If the sphere is a joke, it is a very creative joke.

I hope it's a joke. If not, it's one of the least sensible rumors I think I've read on this forum. Difficult to manufacturer, difficult to store/transport, and stupidly space-consuming for the end user. A lot of people get anywhere from 2-4 Powerwalls. Can you imagine the space that four Powerspheres would take up?

I'd believe a cylinder (especially since you could paint it like a giant Duracell). But not a sphere.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

A bit OT, but SpaceX valuation feeds through into Elon's financial strength.

it's between 168-172 billion valuation at 92-97/per share.

Only 15 months ago SpaceX was valued at $74 B. Most of this valuation is due to Starlink that seems to be progressing well (I would guess between 1 million an 1.5 million subscribers).

Evaluating potential investment in SpaceX.

Evaluating potential investment in SpaceX.

forum.nasaspaceflight.com

 

[2daMoon]

I have tried to guess where a sphere might be useful, I think possibly outside as rain and snow would fall off especially if the outside shell was metal and could be warmed up.

Floor mounted LFP Powerballs is a step forward.

If the Powerball can be deployed inside and outside that is a potential advantage.

I imagine a stainless steel ball in the garden might look nice.

Not to mention how mowing around a sphere would be such a joy to look forward to.

/s

 

[Atomsla]

I hope it's a joke. If not, it's one of the least sensible rumors I think I've read on this forum. Difficult to manufacturer, difficult to store/transport, and stupidly space-consuming for the end user. A lot of people get anywhere from 2-4 Powerwalls. Can you imagine the space that four Powerspheres would take up?

I'd believe a cylinder (especially since you could paint it like a giant Duracell). But not a sphere.

Would you believe a pyramid shaped power wall? Because I just talked to some insiders, and they confirmed it. Its still very secret, so keep it quiet please.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I have tried to guess where a sphere might be useful, I think possibly outside as rain and snow would fall off especially if the outside shell was metal and could be warmed up.

Floor mounted LFP Powerballs is a step forward.

If the Powerball can be deployed inside and outside that is a potential advantage.

I imagine a stainless steel ball in the garden might look nice.

Powerballs. I love it! After some consideration, I'm thinking Xepa must have been using speech to text or got autocorrected, and "a sphere" was actually intended to be "LFP here". Maybe?