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First, I wouldn’t give her the distinction of having ‘written’ a positive article. This appears to be practically a word for word transcript of an all hands on deck meeting. Normally, we’d get a couple of broad nuggets. This is something else entirely and perhaps Tesla contacted the media and asked to have this lidded a bit or - and this is the way I’m leaning - the WallStreet puppet masters aren’t positioned correctly for all this ‘good’ news to hit the stands yet.

Wasn't it Orson Welles who said, "We'll have no good news before it's time" or something like that? 🤷‍♂️

Good news isn't profitable to media. Mostly they use it as a reference point, that is, a dash of good news so viewers get more impact from the bad news. If all they did was bad news the effect would taper off.

Tesla has been awash in good news of late. What, with analysts invited to tour Giga-B and then writing glowing reports while increasing their PT targets, plus there have been record after record in production, top safety ratings, and the list goes on. The few outliers still making attempts to denigrate Tesla are buffoons (or have an axe to grind) and most people know it already, or, soon enough after a little study.

All the while the spring is being wound up and I very much enjoy the anticipation while cranking the handle on the Jack-in-the-box that is TSLA. It is always such a thrill when it does finally pop. 🚀 🌝

bWQVZ_.gif

 
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A bunch of production rate information (some new, some possibly old) in that Kolodny piece.

Fremont Factory:



Berlin



Austin



Nevada Drivetrain



Nevada Car Battery Production



Nevada Megapack



Nevada Powerwall





This entire piece may have more useful information than all previous Kolodny articles combined! Please @The Accountant @Gigapress etc... tell me how much money Tesla is gonna print this Q3...

Bravo. Thank you.
 
The Inflation Reduction Act makes this a lot more profitable. I'm continually amazed at the foresight in that law.
I too am amazed at the foresight in this law @Usain . This is exactly what was necessary to create a path forward towards a cleaner, distributed grid. And it includes incentives that will provide a path to help fund that transition to solar + storage at the residential level too. And there are incentives in place to grow US production of the pieces/parts necessary to make that transition. Sounds great, right? That is all aligned with the original Green New Deal, and that is how both sides of the aisle and the media can get away with trying to reframe this legislation as The Green New Deal. But in the details it certainly isn't aligned in my opinion.

This administration ran on solving Climate Change. And the Green New Deal was already a widely recognized path to achieve that goal. And nothing happened for the first two years. That is a lot of time to tweak the language and goals of the original Green New Deal. In my 50,000 foot interpretation of what is different, the outcome is MUCH less 'different' than the original Green New Deal goals. Meaning the last two years of sitting on their hands wasn't just about letting Mary Barra and Ford and others try to get some pieces of their broken shells back together prior to the passage of this legislation so they would benefit more (although I believe that to be true as well). That two years was also sufficient to create a path that made many of the renewable transitions possible while finding a way to keep as many of the benefits of that transition in the hands of those that are in control of the existing paradigm that we will soon exit as a result.

We have all been discussing the tax benefits for our residential solar + storage increasing 4%, and we appreciate the benefits of storage-only projects becoming eligible for tax benefits going forward. But let's not kid ourselves. Grid operators have been desperate for a way to implement such projects for at least a decade now. Their bottom lines were already going red with O&M, a lot of Deferred Maintenance, and ever-increasing legal costs for power lines/easements/etc which can be in the $Billions for the larger operators. A Distributed Grid that reduces the need to expand or improve the existing distribution system is tremendously beneficial to their current hot mess. But until now, they would have had to pay for all of that with Electrical Rates and Electrical Rate hikes. So most of them did nothing (kudos to Vermont Green Mountain Power and others who leaned in anyways because it was both profitable and the right thing to do). And now, even though they did little more than resist net-metering laws, those efforts are in perfect harmony with the new legislation which will reward them with the ability to soon have a tremendous amount of solar + storage at the residential level across their grids, all capable of creating and expanding Distributed Grids, and they will not have to be paying for any of it because it will be paid by the feds with tax dollars under this new legislation. All why they still retain ownership of their grids. Yes, I too am "amazed at the foresight of this law".

In my opinion the most important concepts of the original Green New Deal that have been successfully removed in the course of the two year sidelining of any Climate action are the following:

*Build enough renewable energy generation capacity for the nation’s growing needs. Currently, four federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and the Tennessee Valley Authority generate and transmit power to distribution utilities in 33 states. We will create one more PMA to cover the remaining states and territories and expand the existing PMAs to build more than enough wind, solar, energy storage and geothermal power plants.

*The renewable energy generated by the Green New Deal will be publicly owned, managed by the Federal Power Marketing Administrations, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Tennessee Valley Authority and sold to distribution utilities with a preference for public power districts, municipally- and cooperatively-owned utilities with democratic, public ownership, and other existing utilities that demonstrate a commitment to the public interest.

So while we are still moving in the same direction as the original Green New Deal by growing residential solar + storage, the original concept plugged a huge hole in how this energy would be owned and distributed. And yes, I am implying that the Texas grid among others is 'a huge hole'. But so is every Grid operator all the way down to the local PUD level that is not in harmony with the concepts and values of net metering and of an integrated Distributed Grid that benefits all residents across the country by improving efficiency, effectiveness, and reliability IMO. But now we now have a path to spend our tax dollars to improve the existing fractured grid for all of the existing grid operators to continue to operate going forward, and in many cases without them having to provide net metering or other incentives as a result. Rewarded for fighting change.

"Meet the New Boss...................Same as the Old Boss"

Yesterday @insaneoctane asked a great question regarding how TMC members are considering life expectancy and warranty of equipment when choosing their new renewable systems. I would offer that it is for all the reasons I mentioned above and Tesla's VPP as perhaps one of the only methods we have as consumers to help encourage grid operators to focus on grid and climate sustainability is why I have to give very strong consideration to Tesla Powerwalls over Enphase batteries for our project regardless of warranty or life expectancy. Even though the Enphase batteries likely allow more intelligent use of the generated solar, and the Enphase batteries allow the use of a generator or other power source on the system and Tesla's Powerwall does not, Enphase is not in pursuit of creating a VPP to the best of my knowledge. Which means if we chose wrong, we are simply making and storing power for our local grid for free with our tax dollars and with all our efforts and inconveniences to design and implement and operate the system.
 
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Oil popped this morning as sentiment shifts rapidly toward the Fed slowing in some capacity.

It would be VERY bullish for WTI come back down next week. The underlying fundamentals are there for it to continue dropping, but crude traders and OPEC aren't gonna go down easy.

If the WH continues the strategic reserve release program, all should be well. Especially as parts of China stays on lockdown, Europe remains a mess, and demand is for those reasons capped.
 
Elon was saying how the US would only need X miles of panels and Y miles (1 sq mile) of batteries to handle all of our power. Just a thought experiment and then Dumb Dumb says "umm achtually we only have a small amount of battery storage currently". His comments don't even make sense in context of the topic being discussed.
ON PV PANEL PLACEMENT

I just had a 5am brain zap. It’s not necessary to recapitulate or verify Mr Musk’s 10,000 sq mi claim (he said “100 x 100 miles” which is a number that only Alaska (not even Texas) could swallow, as a contiguous piece, and of course our insolation doesn’t pencil out).

BUT - I just realized I can “provide” a contiguous 500 sq. mi. tract (350-525, to put bounds) - within the very finest insolation of the nation - and NOT affect even one desert tortoise, cactus or other such stumbling blocks.

And by contiguous, I also mean appropriately shaped. No spaghetti here, like covering roadways or canals, which present inefficient wiring problems, among many others.

But there is more. I think the overwhelming - 95% is not a stretch - majority of environmentalists, whether soi-disant or professionally hard-tempered, AND of farmers, ranchers and their ilk, would be highly supportive of such a pogram.

Lastly, acquiring rights to the tract could not be easier - period.

Even such a vast plan represents a small fraction of the 10,000 sqmi. total - just five percent. But no one should desire ALL production in a single location.

So…I’ve provided all the necessary clues. Where is it?

More at 11.
 
I too am amazed at the foresight in this law @Usain . This is exactly what was necessary to create a path forward towards a cleaner, distributed grid. And it includes incentives that will provide a path to help fund that transition to solar + storage at the residential level too. And there are incentives in place to grow US production of the pieces/parts necessary to make that transition. Sounds great, right? That is all aligned with the original Green New Deal, and that is how both sides of the aisle and the media can get away with trying to reframe this legislation as The Green New Deal. But in the details it certainly isn't aligned in my opinion.

This administration ran on solving Climate Change. And the Green New Deal was already a widely recognized path to achieve that goal. And nothing happened for the first two years. That is a lot of time to tweak the language and goals of the original Green New Deal. In my 50,000 foot interpretation of what is different, the outcome is MUCH less 'different' than the original Green New Deal goals. Meaning the last two years of sitting on their hands wasn't just about letting Mary Barra and Ford and others try to get some pieces of their broken shells back together prior to the passage of this legislation so they would benefit more (although I believe that to be true as well). That two years was also sufficient to create a path that made many of the renewable transitions possible while finding a way to keep as many of the benefits of that transition in the hands of those that are in control of the existing paradigm that we will soon exit as a result.

We have all been discussing the tax benefits for our residential solar + storage increasing 4%, and we appreciate the benefits of storage-only projects becoming eligible for tax benefits going forward. But let's not kid ourselves. Grid operators have been desperate for a way to implement such projects for at least a decade now. Their bottom lines were already going red with O&M, a lot of Deferred Maintenance, and ever-increasing legal costs for power lines/easements/etc which can be in the $Billions for the larger operators. A Distributed Grid that reduces the need to expand or improve the existing distribution system is tremendously beneficial to their current hot mess. But until now, they would have had to pay for all of that with Electrical Rates and Electrical Rate hikes. So most of them did nothing (kudos to Vermont Green Mountain Power and others who leaned in anyways because it was both profitable and the right thing to do). And now, even though they did little more than resist net-metering laws, those efforts are in perfect harmony with the new legislation which will reward them with the ability to soon have a tremendous amount of solar + storage at the residential level across their grids, all capable of creating and expanding Distributed Grids, and they will not have to be paying for any of it because it will be paid by the feds with tax dollars under this new legislation. All why they still retain ownership of their grids. Yes, I too am "amazed at the foresight of this law".

In my opinion the most important concepts of the original Green New Deal that have been successfully removed in the course of the two year sidelining of any Climate action are the following:

*Build enough renewable energy generation capacity for the nation’s growing needs. Currently, four federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and the Tennessee Valley Authority generate and transmit power to distribution utilities in 33 states. We will create one more PMA to cover the remaining states and territories and expand the existing PMAs to build more than enough wind, solar, energy storage and geothermal power plants.

*The renewable energy generated by the Green New Deal will be publicly owned, managed by the Federal Power Marketing Administrations, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Tennessee Valley Authority and sold to distribution utilities with a preference for public power districts, municipally- and cooperatively-owned utilities with democratic, public ownership, and other existing utilities that demonstrate a commitment to the public interest.

So while we are still moving in the same direction as the original Green New Deal by growing residential solar + storage, the original concept plugged a huge hole in how this energy would be owned and distributed. And yes, I am implying that the Texas grid among others is 'a huge hole'. But so is every Grid operator all the way down to the local PUD level that is not in harmony with the concepts and values of net metering and of an integrated Distributed Grid that benefits all residents across the country by improving efficiency, effectiveness, and reliability IMO. But now we now have a path to spend our tax dollars to improve the existing fractured grid for all of the existing grid operators to continue to operate going forward, and in many cases without them having to provide net metering or other incentives as a result. Rewarded for fighting change.

"Meet the New Boss...................Same as the Old Boss"

Yesterday @insaneoctane asked a great question regarding how TMC members are considering life expectancy and warranty of equipment when choosing their new renewable systems. I would offer that it is for all the reasons I mentioned above and Tesla's VPP as perhaps one of the only methods we have as consumers to help encourage grid operators to focus on grid and climate sustainability is why I have to give very strong consideration to Tesla Powerwalls over Enphase batteries for our project regardless of warranty or life expectancy. Even though the Enphase batteries likely allow more intelligent use of the generated solar, and the Enphase batteries allow the use of a generator or other power source on the system and Tesla's Powerwall does not, Enphase is not in pursuit of creating a VPP to the best of my knowledge. Which means if we chose wrong, we are simply making and storing power for our local grid for free with our tax dollars and with all our efforts and inconveniences to design and implement and operate the system.

The reason the Inflation Reduction Act works the way it does is because of the filibuster. Congress could never pass anything like the Green New Deal because it would get blocked in the senate.

What we got was a bill that used budget reconciliation. As most of you know, this only required a simple majority to pass, but the bill was restricted to budgetary items. As such, the only way to make anything happen with the bill was to offer money to incentivize (or disincentivize) things that would further our climate goals.

Anything that required an actual change to federal law was off limits unless it dealt strictly with finance. So a lot of what we really need is still left undone.

The bottom line is that because the IRA relies solely on market forces to reach its goals, the companies best positioned to capitalize on the massive influx of government cash will rule the world. And there is no company better positioned for that than Tesla.
 
ON PV PANEL PLACEMENT

I just had a 5am brain zap. It’s not necessary to recapitulate or verify Mr Musk’s 10,000 sq mi claim (he said “100 x 100 miles” which is a number that only Alaska (not even Texas) could swallow, as a contiguous piece, and of course our insolation doesn’t pencil out).

BUT - I just realized I can “provide” a contiguous 500 sq. mi. tract (350-525, to put bounds) - within the very finest insolation of the nation - and NOT affect even one desert tortoise, cactus or other such stumbling blocks.

And by contiguous, I also mean appropriately shaped. No spaghetti here, like covering roadways or canals, which present inefficient wiring problems, among many others.

But there is more. I think the overwhelming - 95% is not a stretch - majority of environmentalists, whether soi-disant or professionally hard-tempered, AND of farmers, ranchers and their ilk, would be highly supportive of such a pogram.

Lastly, acquiring rights to the tract could not be easier - period.

Even such a vast plan represents a small fraction of the 10,000 sqmi. total - just five percent. But no one ahould desire ALL production in a single location.

So…I’ve provided all the necessary clues. Where is it?

More at 11.

I'm on board. Just so long as your pogram doesn't displace large groups of peoples. ;)
 
I wish Tesla buys IDRA. Just like how they bought the automation company Grohmann
That would be impractical since IDRA and their parent LK Machinery are one of the world's largest die casting machine manufacturers. They, together with Bühler are the ones most established in the very large high pressure die casting machines. Others, such as Toshiba, are allegedly working on very large machines too, but are more oriented towards smaller items, including injection molding, itself the origin of LK Machinery.
This is a highly specialized business with huge capital intensity and very long lead times. IDRA, driven by LK, had the only motivation to build the Tesla giant solution. Now others and their customers are changing their position. Bühler is the second one to actually launch really huge presses with orders from Tesla also.
The world's leaders are now paying very close attention so others are also coming:

There is no reason why Tesla would enter such a business, especially with very high capital intensity that requires fairly high volumes to justify all that expense.
LK Machinery had serious encouragement from their constituency to support the IDRA bid to supply Gigapresses to Tesla, betting that a larger market would develop. At the time nobody else would make that bet. Once the market was proven, Bühler has also entered. With, I understand, more than 30 orders now existing between them, these giant presses are quickly being adopted for new applications in BEV and other very large machinery applications.

Tesla has been very much the impetus for several highly automated highly complex manufacturing solutions, not just Giapress.

The paint shop solutions Tesla si now deploying are a close analogy:

In both of these cases, and a few others, such as robots, effective use depends on highly integrated, highly automated manufacturing processes. These solutions are vastly easier in new factory installations, so their adoptions has been first by Tesla, followed by Chinese (no mystery, they're the ones building new factories, no conspiracy required).

In the meantime Tesla is rapidly forcing these industries to rapidly evolve or decline in relevance. Tesla is investing the processes and the operating systems to allow such innovations to be deployed effectively. There is no reason at all for Tesla to do all that itself.

However, acquisitions such as Hi-Bar, for example, provide crucial precision metering technology to allow deployment of better cell filling, paint shop control and Gigapress lubricant filling etc. The small acquisitions, including Maxwell also, allow Tesla to make faster implementation of other processes by making incremental advances in implementation of larger advances.

Giant acquisitions of things like huge machines directly, no.
 
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