Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

Saudis of all people bought 5% of TSLA on the public markets, so why not China? I love these conspiracy theories, they give me a burst of dopamine and serotonin. Please keep them coming Miss Ai

 

[Sudre]

I like a lot of what Judge Nathan said today. However, given where she was going, she should have said that the previous agreement was not clear enough on what would be considered "Material," therefore she was throwing out the current case, while requiring the changes due in two weeks to better define and place reasonable limits going forward.

While I like this idea I think the judge may feel if she throws out the contempt case Elons team might feel too confident and strong arm the SEC into a completely pointless settlement and we will be right back to tweet crazy world. I think Elon's tweets lately have been fine but you have to admit they are tame as compared to last year.

Some how they need to find a way to word the settlement so if a market moving tweet that was not approved moves the market then Musk gets in trouble with a penalty at a certain percentage of what the market moved. That should keep his fingers in check yet not tie his hands. Plus eliminate the need to see a judge every time because it would be pretty obvious. A plus 2 billion market cap tweet at a 10% penalty would cost him 200 million or 200 days in jail, whichever he could afford. Some threshold for the move would have to be defined too. 5% gains or losses can be common place with Tesla. Maybe any tweet that causes more than a 5% move?

 

[scaesare]

Are the 18650 cells already using the chemistry of the 2170 cells?

If not, there should be a gain there.

Everything I've seen suggests the chemistry of the 2170's is no different than that of the 18650's.

Do you have something the indicates otherwise?

 

[anthonyj]

While I like this idea I think the judge may feel if she throws out the contempt case Elons team might feel too confident and strong arm the SEC into a completely pointless settlement and we will be right back to tweet crazy world. I think Elon's tweets lately have been fine but you have to admit they are tame as compared to last year.

Some how they need to find a way to word the settlement so if a market moving tweet that was not approved moves the market then Musk gets in trouble with a penalty at a certain percentage of what the market moved. That should keep his fingers in check yet not tie his hands. Plus eliminate the need to see a judge every time because it would be pretty obvious. A plus 2 billion market cap tweet at a 10% penalty would cost him 200 million or 200 days in jail, whichever he could afford. Some threshold for the move would have to be defined too. 5% gains or losses can be common place with Tesla. Maybe any tweet that causes more than a 5% move?

Lol cmon. Just no more funding secured tweets. Case closed. The SEC didn’t even go for him with “short burn of the century” or “FSD in 3 months” 2 years ago. It’s the stupid go private tweet to burn shorts (and dumb longs like me) that’s the real issue here

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think I bot some shares on 3/25 at 251.90 at 9:34am ET as the SP was going down.

Yeah, the YTD low SP was 254.46 on Mar 25:

Today's low was just 260.59 moments after the Opening bell.

As usual, drama Queen CNBC is lying embellishing for effect.

That's how they earn the big bux.

 

[M3Rider]

1. Why was the SEC so keen to settle in the first place?

2. Why would the same logic no longer apply?

The SEC is no more interested in protracted court battles with uncertain outcomes than Tesla is. They have finite resources and like easy victories.

It was an easy quick win. Now it's personal.

 

[Prunesquallor]

My concern with Enhanced Summons is in a crowded parking lot. I mean that’s the biggest use case right? (No need for summons in an almost empty lot). How will it know the right of way with cars continually driving by, people walking by, and cars going in/out of parking spaces. As it is right now, I have a feeling it will not be able to come out of a space while trying to avoid accidents, or driving to destination with pedestrians. I can’t imagine Summons working flawlessly at a place like a shopping mall, Costco, event venue.

Probably cannibalization of Model S by Model 3, and the elimination of the cheap S&X contributed in overseas markets (e.g. Norway)

Cannibalization and the beginning of a potential Model S Osborne Effect.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

Out of all the conspiracy theories that I've read on this thread, this one seems the most plausible.

Interpret that as you will.

 

[elasalle]

Everything I've seen suggests the chemistry of the 2170's is no different than that of the 18650's.

Do you have something the indicates otherwise?

Question I have - Is can a battery pack based on 2170 - based on cooling, pack architecture changes (or Super charger architecture changes) be made as or more efficient than the packs with 18650s?
If yes, then S/X refresh better happen ASAP (& who cares what's inside)
If no, then S/X is screwed ..

Might as well see if 2170's can be used for energy business, and then see if GF can actually support S/X too. ... cheers!!

 

[Pras]

Just saw an electric car ad on TV.(FX channel in NJ)...by Volkswagen. So there you go... if EV wins, Tesla wins. Thanks VW!

Edit: here is the YouTube link.

 

[Fred42]

Just saw an electric car ad on TV.(FX channel in NJ)...by Volkswagen. So there you go... if EV wins, Tesla wins. Thanks VW!

Edit: here is the YouTube link.

The car shown most prominently is a Bolt. The woman by the Electrify America charger appears to be about to plug in a Toyota. This must be part of their EV education commitment per the dieselgate settlement.

(I was glad they skipped the verse from the Jetson's song "Jane his wife" as they showed the guy with his dog.)

 

[anthonyj]

Just saw an electric car ad on TV.(FX channel in NJ)...by Volkswagen. So there you go... if EV wins, Tesla wins. Thanks VW!

Edit: here is the YouTube link.

Not sure why VW doesn't team up with Tesla and just annihilate everyone. Seems like a winning combo with their new CEO

 

[carterm2]

Lol cmon. Just no more funding secured tweets. Case closed. The SEC didn’t even go for him with “short burn of the century” or “FSD in 3 months” 2 years ago. It’s the stupid go private tweet to burn shorts (and dumb longs like me) that’s the real issue here

Trust, what is it good for...

 

[MXWing]

So the honorable Judge Nathan pretty much decided that the SEC were a bunch of tattle tale whiney bitches.

Figure something out FFS without wasting the time of the court.

Me thinks Judge Nathan is a great parent.

 

[bdy0627]

Watching a ridiculous piece on Bloomberg TV right now on Tesla deliveries and the two panelists they have on are Dana Hull and uber-bear David Kudla

Kudla is currently spewing FUD that Model 3 units in Q1 were all low margin entry level units (which is of course complete bollocks)

Dana Hull is being Dana Hull.

Good. Lowering expectations even further works better for us at this point.

 

[Causalien]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

A buyout by China will not be as bad of an optic as saudi oil buyout. It's just that the us gov will block it. It is more likely that tsla can ipo its chinese factory in China.

Chinese gov owned private corps are currently under orders to not invest outside the country and is in the process of selling foreign assets, so them buying tsla shares in usa is not likely. With the prosepct of having chinese execs locked up when traveling in usa, I doubt any major investment will happen in usa without them being aboe to step foot here to negotiate... Until the trade deal goes through of course.

 

[scaesare]

Question I have - Is can a battery pack based on 2170 - based on cooling, pack architecture changes (or Super charger architecture changes) be made as or more efficient than the packs with 18650s?
If yes, then S/X refresh better happen ASAP (& who cares what's inside)
If no, then S/X is screwed ..

Might as well see if 2170's can be used for energy business, and then see if GF can actually support S/X too. ... cheers!!

Certainly there are some advantages to 2170's, even if simply ease of packaging/assembly (i.e. fewer total cells to assemble for equivalent energy capacity), otherwise Tesla would not have transitioned to them.

And we've seen that the Model 3's can take advantage of 250+KW charge rates... how much of that is due to cell architecture vs pack architecture (cooling, conductor sizes, etc...) is unknown.

But the context of this discussion was volumetric energy density. That is if the "Tesla could obtain 10% more energy in the existing pack" assertion was possible because of a more energy dense cell... as cramming more cells in the existing pack casing seems unlikely after they already did that once.

Thus far, it appears that the increase in the 2170 cell volume and the increase in energy capacity are roughly equivalent. I think Jack Rickard's tests may be the most recent re-affirming this.

That's not to say that a refresh couldn't also include a redesigned pack or chassis that allows 10% more. Heck even using 2170's with equivalent chemistry, but allowing for the 5mm taller height buys you ~7.7% more cell volume... not quite the 10% asserted. If the roughly 1/4" of dead space in the bottom of the current pack is not there for safety reasons, it's even possible that you could fit 2170's in there.

 

[Mobius484]

Question I have - Is can a battery pack based on 2170 - based on cooling, pack architecture changes (or Super charger architecture changes) be made as or more efficient than the packs with 18650s?
If yes, then S/X refresh better happen ASAP (& who cares what's inside)
If no, then S/X is screwed ..

Might as well see if 2170's can be used for energy business, and then see if GF can actually support S/X too. ... cheers!!

I suspect that with newest chemistry in the 18650’s will allow for redesign of pack. Higher density, and they can remove some cells to allow for a “superbottle” like cooling system. They don’t need the 2170 cells for that. Best I can make assumptions after lots of sandy Munro and jack rickard shows.... then its “track mode for the S and better to compete with the toucan.

 

[Intl Professor]

A better question IMO would be:

Does the judge vacate the original settlement and demand the SEC RETURN THE $40,000,000?

But then, as someone noted above, SEC might appeal. Don't know if this is correct, but if it is, better to stick with Nathan who remains with the hammer in this case. She could do this later but a judge likes to keep you and them fighting while avoiding a possible overturn. Seems like the conservative thing to do.

 

[elasalle]

.

I suspect that with newest chemistry in the 18650’s will allow for redesign of pack. This will allow for a “superbottle” like cooling system. They don’t need the 2170 cells for that. Best I can make assumptions after lots of sandy Munro and jack rickard shows.... then its “track mode for the S and better to compete with the toucan.

thanks, but where is S/X gonna get 18650's? that's a bigger problem to solve...