Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

sorry, no way I can keep up with this thread, but with the doom and gloom about the P&D (wasn't <15k S/X expected? That had been my impression anyway) that I've seen in the more recent pages I didn't see any reference to the NoA update[1]. I'm not sure how I feel about it -- seems premature to me as I'd prefer to have a 'beta' that was released widely and worked before allowing users to turn off confirmation, but at the same time I'm anxious to try it out. Here's hoping I get the update before my trip next week, but I'm not counting on it.

1) Introducing a More Seamless Navigate on Autopilot

Despite expectation of ~4 weeks based on delay for prior updates, I already have the latest update where you can turn off confirmation in NoA. I'm not sure I'm that brave yet, but I'm looking forward to trying it out

 

[scaesare]

I suspect that with newest chemistry in the 18650’s will allow for redesign of pack. This will allow for a “superbottle” like cooling system. They don’t need the 2170 cells for that. Best I can make assumptions after lots of sandy Munro and jack rickard shows.... then its “track mode for the S and better to compete with the toucan.

I believe the "superbottle" is misunderstood.

It simply combines a number of existing cooling system components (valves, reservoirs, etc...) into a single compact and integrated assembly. It allows for reduction in cost, packaging versatility, and eas of assembly. It doesn't provide any increased cooling capability....

 

[Off Shore]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

Consider the idea that it would be wholly advantageous for the planet for China to do exactly this. Recently I've fantasized about the US government nationalizing Tesla's battery production, and mandating that all car makers tool up to use it at once. This of course would be a very different US government that the one currently in place. It would be a government that recognized the peril and scale of the climate problem we face.

 

[Mobius484]

But maybe the space saved can allow for better engineered cooling system?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I believe the "superbottle" is misunderstood.

It simply combines a number of existing cooling system components (valves, reservoirs, etc...) into a single compact and integrated assembly. It allows for reduction in cost, packaging versatility, and eas of assembly. It doesn't provide any increased cooling capability....

It’s highly possible I’m wrong, but I thought I remember something about the super bottle being part of what enabled the quasi-ventless design of the 3?

 

[The Blue Owl]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

[...]

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

I don't have any evidence either, but I just wanted to point out that everything you said makes way, way more sense for China than it ever did for the Saudis (and we know those guys bought over 5% on the open market and wanted more).

All I'm saying is, maybe you're on to something.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Aerial photo taken on April 3, 2019 shows the construction site of Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai, east China. The construction of U.S. electric carmaker Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai is going smoothly. Tesla signed the agreement with the Shanghai municipal government in July 2018 to build the factory. In October, the company was approved to use an 864,885-square-meter tract of land in Lingang for its Shanghai plant, which has an annual producing capacity of 500,000 electric cars. (Xinhua/Ding Ting)

View attachment 393787
Additional pictures found at Construction of Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai going smoothly - Xinhua | English.news.cn

So roof before floor? Is that unusual? A new technique? Appealing to anybody with construction expertise. TIA.

 

[lascavarian]

On CNBC, Carl Quintanilla I believe mis-spoke about the stock price saying that the stock was at the worst price since early January.

I think I bot some shares on 3/25 at 251.90 at 9:34am ET as the SP was going down. Now it seems to be trending up given the muted response IMO to this Production/Delivery Q1 data.

This is my error earlier today. Stock price was 254.90. My bad, very sorry.

 

[jerry33]

So roof before floor? Is that unusual? A new technique? Appealing to anybody with construction expertise. TIA.

If you install the roof before the floor, it means keeping the workers and the poured concrete out of the rain while the rest of the construction is going on. It also means you can install machinery (at least in the central area). Should reduce both costs and time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I learned something though - yesterday that option was up 60% at one point and even taking into account 2x$20 trading fees, I could have pocketed $50 profit = take the money when you can...

Not an Advice: Don't be Greedy: Take the money

I'm sitting on this 4/5 §297,5 call, which is over 200% up at the moment and can't decide what to do with it.

We learn more from failure than from success​

Caveat: some of us are slow learners, my brother...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Many instit and influential bulls adding and/or defending today instead of selling (though I think a lot of retail folks sold premarket). TMC folks buying too. Also stock did not fall below the open. Strong buying (of course uptick rule in place). And reasonably good outcome on SEC case (yeah!). Maybe a couple of days till the dust settles, but the discount now is too good to pass up. I'm gonna follow the other bulls and buy here too. IMO (not advice) somewhere here is the bottom-- maybe test 250 again?? Will add some more if goes lower.

As I said yesterday, never assume. There was really no shorting/put opportunity unless you acted yesterday or early in premarket. Shorts or puts opened in the am are underwater now.

Let's see if we can close above the 200 weekly moving average at 275 tomorrow. GLTA!!

 

[Pras]

Many instit and influential bulls adding and/or defending today instead of selling (though I think a lot of retail folks sold premarket). TMC folks buying too. Also stock did not fall below the open. Strong buying (of course uptick rule in place). And reasonably good outcome on SEC case (yeah!). Maybe a couple of days till the dust settles, but the discount now is too good to pass up. I'm gonna follow the other bulls and buy here too. IMO (not advice) somewhere here is the bottom-- maybe test 250 again?? Will add some more if goes lower.

As I said yesterday, never assume. There was really no shorting/put opportunity unless you acted yesterday or early in premarket. Shorts or puts opened in the am are underwater now.

Let's see if we can close above the 200 weekly moving average at 275 tomorrow. GLTA!!

Any theories why the stock didn’t pop after SEC hearing? Was it baked in or was there a heavy downside pressure from an institutional investor?

 

[lascavarian]

Today's low was just 260.59 moments after the Opening bell.

As usual, drama Queen CNBC is lying embellishing for effect.

That's how they earn the big bux.

How quickly karma works. Your post drew my attention to an error in mine which was about an error by Carl Quintanilla. My purchase price was actually 254.90 not 251.90. Carl was still wrong about today being lowest since early January and I hope he feels as bad as I do about getting my number wrong.

 

[mongo]

Any theories why the stock didn’t pop after SEC hearing? Was it baked in or was there a heavy downside pressure from an institutional investor?

Shorts could still cap the price...

 

[oneday]

I believe the "superbottle" is misunderstood.

Here’s some leaked drawings from Tesla that hopefully clears up some confusion.

 

[22522]

Elon’s ability to communicate via tweet is valuable to product feedback and share price.

The SEC has no right to damage a companies ability to conduct business.

Tweets are also a good place to publicly disclose information.

Maybe Elon can have authorization to tweet as Tesla and then retweet as Elon. This way he is speaking as the company and liability will be less ambiguous.

All production info would have to go the retweet route. Product and features would go the standard Elon way.

SEC should be good with this.
Elon should be good with this.

 

[Off Shore]

So roof before floor? Is that unusual? A new technique? Appealing to anybody with construction expertise. TIA.

FWIW I'm in the process of doing the same thing (smaller scale: 6m x 3.75m) here (slower time scale, too).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Consider the idea that it would be wholly advantageous for the planet for China to do exactly this. Recently I've fantasized about the US government nationalizing Tesla's battery production, and mandating that all car makers tool up to use it at once. This of course would be a very different US government that the one currently in place. It would be a government that recognized the peril and scale of the climate problem we face.

It would be a disaster. Government makes terrible business sense. Let them govern and let business people run the businesses. Everyone is much better off that way.

Not an advice. LOL!

Dan

 

[Curt Renz]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

Interesting. Some had conjectured that institutions would be selling TSLA throughout the day today. Perhaps some were, but someone was buying from them amid heavy trading volume, which kept the price fairly flat after the opening plunge despite volatility and significant meanderings in the macro-averages.

The TSLA trading today was near levels of price and volume that have supported TSLA bottoms several times before. ARK Invest was buying, but that was for 60,000 shares, not millions. They buy their favored stocks on dips, and that's worked well for them. Perhaps it was a Chinese entity as you suspect. Perhaps some others who sense a bargain and want the price supported here. We may know better in the fullness of time.

 

[Thekiwi]

yeah I can vouch to having a similar experience mostly. I've said it before but they need an "I'm a Mac" style ad campaign.

This is exactly what they need, great idea.