Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

NPR was relying on old news. The storage batteries were connected to the Babcock Ranch solar farm in March of 2018, thus eliminating the need for natural gas.

If that is true, why did you say in 2021 that they were still waiting to install storage until it was cheaper?

For now, power at night comes from the grid, but the plan is for battery storage once it becomes a little cheaper.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Elon keeps saying Cybertruck VOLUME production mid-year. Is Berlin at volume production now? To me that means they might start making cybertrucks in Q1....

I remember when the Model 3 was close to deliveries a lot more of them were found testing on roads.

I would expect we see a lot more Cybertrucks being tested before we are close to even the start of production. Volume production will then be only two weeks away.

 

[CaliBear1]

EVs cost a lot more here... but at least I can CHARGE for free.

Too late for me to edit that to “few!” Hey, an inadvertent funny is at least as valuable as an intended one on a day like this!

 

[Sancho]

As best as I can tell, the slide in the SP has nothing to do with Tesla fundamentals.

The “Twitter overhang” is not related to Tesla fundamentals.

The only thing remotely related to possible negative Tesla fundamentals over the last several months is the possibility that shipments of cars out of China in the last weeks of Q3 reflects a demand issue in China, which is very dubious for reasons discussed at length here.

I don’t have blinders on. If there is any real negative trend in Tesla fundamentals I’m prepared to deleverage. But a drop of this magnitude seemingly unrelated to fundamentals is a screaming buy opportunity.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, saw that myself.

We should have some kind of visual in Austin soon enough one way or the other.

Elon thinks it’s on the way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578503339968696320

 

[Thekiwi]

I’ve been holding out hope for an “Early” start in Q1 or early Q2. This means it’s still possible. Getting tighter by the day though. Certainly plenty of room for a mid-year launch.

Hopefully there will be some commentary on CT production status on the earnings call.

If I recall correctly - “mid 23” was for start of “volume” production, so possibly Q1/Q2 units being made, if not shipped (probably sold to staff first like the Y was).

 

[Ogre]

Elon thinks it’s on the way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578503339968696320

YES.

Typical non-confirmation from Musk. Sort of confirms it without actually confirming it.

 

[Curt Renz]

If that is true, why did you say in 2021 that they were still waiting to install storage until it was cheaper?

Wow, are you ever attentive to my posts. It seems that last year I too was relying on old news. Guilty as charged.

Below is a link to a 2018 article describing the connection between the Babcock Ranch solar farm and its storage batteries.

Announcing Battery Storage at the FPL Babcock Ranch Solar Energy Center

 

[Runarbt]

I remember when the Model 3 was close to deliveries a lot more of them were found testing on roads.

I would expect we see a lot more Cybertrucks being tested before we are close to even the start of production. Volume production will then be only two weeks away.

Model y ramp has been smoother and quicker tham model 3. I expect that as soon the Gigapress is in place we will see cybertruck test vehicles on the road within a month or two.. and that cybertruck go into production even quicker than model Y.

 

[NicoV]

Brent crude is back over €100/barrel

OTOH, European natural gas prices keep dropping: The dutch TTF future has now dropped back to levels not seen since june (155, to be compared with the 350 at the peak in august). This has also caused the electricity prices to go down, with base load prices down to around 16 cents/kWh (to be compared with prices briefly approaching 1 euro in august) in NL, BE and DE.
Tomorrowafternoon we have again negative hourly spot prices in NL and BE. There was a lot of wind this week in NL, with long periods of practically zero gas usage for electricity generation. France nuclear is slowly ramping up, but seems to be significantly behind the schedule I mentioned a few weeks ago.

 

[JRP3]

I would expect we see a lot more Cybertrucks being tested before we are close to even the start of production.

They might be camouflaged.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Krugerrand, add more to your future buy order.

I think inflation is a topic this group has been optimistic about and downplaying. Perhaps it is partially because many people here are wealthy and retired. If you are, I suggest spending some time discussing inflation with a typical American that is working and paid less than six figures a year.

Food prices have risen far more than the govt stats claim. My grocery bill is about 50% higher than 2 years ago. Some items I buy have more than doubled in price. A friend of mine works 3 jobs. She told me she skipped buying butter and creamer this week because the prices are too high.

I read claims that salaries have increased sharply the past two years. I think that may be a silicon valley phenomenon for companies competing with spacex and Tesla for talent. My salary is about 10% more than it was in 2019. I've asked around and have found one person that has significantly increased their salary. Everyone else talks about spending increasing while income has been trickling up or stagnant.

Rent is crazy high. In my area, it has increased about 50% in 3 years. Many people, especially under 40, are working two jobs to pay their bills and not getting ahead. They're depressed and many of them hope the system collapses as they feel completely screwed over.

Don't take my word for it, go talk to people, go read other communities online. It's not pretty.

I've seen many people here suggest deflation would be worse. I disagree. We need some at this point to pull back from a breakpoint.

Getting back to Tesla, I don't think there will be a decrease in desire to own a Tesla, but I do see the potential for demand to decrease as more working class people simply can't afford to buy a tesla in this environment. Tesla has many demand levers they can utilize, and I think they will be ok, but I don't think it will be as high as demand could have been without the inflation we've experienced.

I work mainly with nurses and they have been spending on travels, restaurants and cars like never. However the nurses I work with love near the community hospital where the houses are around 400k and they can still make their mortgage payments. The average nurses at the OR makes around 90k with overtime. So high end of the working class.

The working class making 50k a year is the one getting squeezed out I guess with the grocery and inflation hitting the hardest. The rents are going higher and they can’t set money aside for savings anymore. I heard some talking about the big reset and some are starting to wish for it to save them from the rat race they are stucked in. It sucks a little bit for the one who are looking to buy their first house and do not make 100k+ yearly but that a whole other problem with the housing in a capitalist system.

All this with an end of a devilish week with that close x 3.

Future looks grim for the working class.

 

[WADan]

Okay. I

You can never predict what the market will do in the future with any certainty.

However, we do know for a fact that:
- Tesla just had a record quarter with production & deliveries
- Tesla will likely have it's best earnings report ever in two weeks
- Q4 will very likely be even better yet.
- Investment credit rating is happening now, that means lots of new share buyers coming in the near future
- Semi's are going into production
- The Twitter overhang is winding down, should be out of our way in a month or so

Given all of these positives, the macro environment is still dragging TSLA down. This is a great buying opportunity for anyone wanting to hold for at least a half year or longer.

Okay. I am done buying this round. My ROTH is again 100 percent $TSLA.
Dumb luck (hopefully SP will start climbing next week), but I am not about to miss out on this big sale ()

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

OTOH, European natural gas prices keep dropping: The dutch TTF future has now dropped back to levels not seen since june (155, to be compared with the 350 at the peak in august). This has also caused the electricity prices to go down, with base load prices down to around 16 cents/kWh (to be compared with prices briefly approaching 1 euro in august) in NL, BE and DE.
Tomorrowafternoon we have again negative hourly spot prices in NL and BE. There was a lot of wind this week in NL, with long periods of practically zero gas usage for electricity generation. France nuclear is slowly ramping up, but seems to be significantly behind the schedule I mentioned a few weeks ago.

Really a shame Europe doesn't have the infrastructure to collect and store that wind energy

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Just what do you think they have been working on for the past two years at a minimum? Production is starting and as with any new production efforts they'll probably run into some snags. But they're waaay past the days of model 3 early production and have learned a huge amount in the interim. I predict a relatively quick rollout with very few problems personally, but what do I know? I'm just a mere retail investor, not a fracking analyst (anal, ha!) or super smart hedge fund manager.

I'd sure like to think that's true. But your thesis is taken a lot further with Model Y production, something that Tesla has been building for several years now. If things were as simple as you're saying, output of Austin or Berlin would at least approach that of Shanghai. Yet both facilities are still ramping production. Now, semi will be much lower in volume than auto, meaning likely a more manual, labor intensive assy line. If so, that may ramp more quickly. Regardless, it will take time to hit their stride with a brand new product and assembly line.

 

[Thekiwi]

Quotes from the FT article linked to earlier in the thread:

The interviewer doesnt seem to be the sharpest tool in the shed:

For the next couple of hours, I am better acquainted with the curious character of Elon Musk, the engineer and the visionary, the billionaire and the disrupter, the agitator and the troublemaker. Defying armies of sceptics, including myself (full disclosure: until my family rebelled against me and bought a Tesla Model 3 and I started driving it, I was convinced the company would go bankrupt)

Musk isn’t playing 4D chess with his tweets:

Why does a serious guy with serious ideas indulge in silly Twitter games that could also cost his followers dearly? “Aren’t you entertained?” Musk roars with laughter. “I play the fool on Twitter and often shoot myself in the foot and cause myself all sorts of trouble . . . I don’t know, I find it vaguely therapeutic to express myself on Twitter. It’s a way to get messages out to the public.”

China not thrilled presently:

Musk says Beijing has made clear its disapproval of his recent rollout of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite communications system, in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s cut-off of the internet. He says Beijing sought assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China.

Musk now doing his best to antagonize Taiwan customers:

”My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy. And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” I doubt his proposal will be taken up.

 

[wipster]

I'd sure like to think that's true. But your thesis is taken a lot further with Model Y production, something that Tesla has been building for several years now. If things were as simple as you're saying, output of Austin or Berlin would at least approach that of Shanghai. Yet both facilities are still ramping production. Now, semi will be much lower in volume than auto, meaning likely a more manual, labor intensive assy line. If so, that may ramp more quickly. Regardless, it will take time to hit their stride with a brand new product and assembly line.

Not disputing that, but I think it will take far less time than you think my friend.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

They might be camouflaged.

or disguised as a boat

 

[Stretch2727]

Pretty good article summarizing the Twitter situation but pay walled.

Elon Musk Got More Time to Close Twitter Deal, Not More Options

The billionaire and the social-media company are discussing the mechanics of closing the deal, sources say.

www.wsj.com

Looks like the biggest risk to Elon selling more TSLA shares is the other investors, not the bank financing according to the article. He is personally responsible for $33.5B which includes about $7B from the other investors. If any of them back out he would be responsible to make up the difference or find other investors. It also is not clear where all the $33.5 billion is coming from as Elon has about $20B lined up based on earlier TWTR investments and TSLA sales.

If I was one of the investors why not buy now what you can in the open market and save some $$ or end up with a larger % of the company.

 

[Hock1]

Who in their right mind would be selling 2025 leaps at these levels? Am I missing something?

Do you understand what a market is??? For every buyer who thinks that security X is a buy there Is a seller who thinks it is a sell. It has nothing to do with who has, or doesn't have, a "right" mind.