woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Who in their right mind would be selling 2025 leaps at these levels? Am I missing something?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The fact that my leaps are 95% june 24 or Jan 25 is what’s keeping me from panicking today. Tesla growth plus massive odds that whatever recession happens is in our rear view.
@The Accountant Thanks, did not see that portion. Still while it may be "on the table" along with many other options, I think they have better things to do with our money. Just my opinion.
I did to avoid a margin call. Hopefully I can buy them back at a small loss on Monday....
Who wants to take bets on when the world will be relatively stable again? Or what Elon might be alluding to in that "force majeure event *pause* somewhere"?
Even with all the headlines out right now, I think few people appreciate how quickly and drastically the geopolitical landscape is changing. But I think Elon has an idea...
So let me get this straight. The market tanked today because the jobs report made it more likely that the Fed will raise rates by the exact amount they told us they would a couple weeks ago? 
ZachF
Active Member
Lockdowns beginning to creep back in Shanghai…
Unfortunately, I’d put the probability of Giga Shanghai going through at least one month of forced shutdown sometime this winter at 70%.
Chairman Pooh the moron at work again with his stupid pet Covid Zero policy.
Unfortunately, I’d put the probability of Giga Shanghai going through at least one month of forced shutdown sometime this winter at 70%.
Chairman Pooh the moron at work again with his stupid pet Covid Zero policy.
Ok not investment advice, however I wanted to talk about some LEAP call spread options possibilities given the stock is at a relatively (we hope) low point.
Note, any call/put buying is of course more risky than owning pure stock, but those risks can be somewhat mitigated by duration and if you think stock price is closer to a bottom.
A vertical spread is when you buy a call option at one expiration (say Jan 24) and simultaneously sell a call option at a higher strike price with the same expiration date. Say buy a $150 call option and sell a $400 call option.
Why would you do this and "cap" your possible gains? Since you only have to fork over the difference in contract cost, you can buy more contracts.
The performance of the spread looks like this as a function of share price and time. You can play around with various options using this tool:
opcalc.com
Breakeven is right around $230.
If the stock price is at or above $400 in Jan 2024, you will return ~ 200%. If you held pure stock, you would have returned 78% at $400.
Pure shares outperforms the spread once you get above $670. Between current share price at $400, the spread will outperform the stock.
The spread definitely is much worse than pure shares if the stock price goes lower than current levels in Jan 2024, and you will lose all your money if it is at or below $150 at that time.
Also, if you end up wanting to sell earlier, depending on the strikes and time, you may end up making less money than if you held the stock, even at say $300 (although not in the example shown above).
To mimic a more conservative approach, you could lower the buy call option strike and raise the sell call option strike. This gives you a bit of leverage vs own pure shares.
Statistically (and I've verified with simulations), call spreads are optimal when the strikes match what you think are the likely low and high points of the stock by expiration.
Personally, I moved to call spreads when the stock hit lows in May (June 2024 $160/$333) in my IRA that will return 3x if share price is at $333. I think this is a good bet. If after January the stock price is still at these levels, I may sell the rest of my shares in my taxable account and do similar.
A vertical spread is when you buy a call option at one expiration (say Jan 24) and simultaneously sell a call option at a higher strike price with the same expiration date. Say buy a $150 call option and sell a $400 call option.
Why would you do this and "cap" your possible gains? Since you only have to fork over the difference in contract cost, you can buy more contracts.
The performance of the spread looks like this as a function of share price and time. You can play around with various options using this tool:
TSLA Call Spread calculator
TSLA Call Spread Calculator shows projected profit and loss over time. A call spread, or vertical spread, is generally used is a moderately volatile market and can be configured to be either bullish or bearish depending on the strike prices chosen: Purchasing a call with a...
opcalc.com
Breakeven is right around $230.
If the stock price is at or above $400 in Jan 2024, you will return ~ 200%. If you held pure stock, you would have returned 78% at $400.
Pure shares outperforms the spread once you get above $670. Between current share price at $400, the spread will outperform the stock.
The spread definitely is much worse than pure shares if the stock price goes lower than current levels in Jan 2024, and you will lose all your money if it is at or below $150 at that time.
Also, if you end up wanting to sell earlier, depending on the strikes and time, you may end up making less money than if you held the stock, even at say $300 (although not in the example shown above).
To mimic a more conservative approach, you could lower the buy call option strike and raise the sell call option strike. This gives you a bit of leverage vs own pure shares.
Statistically (and I've verified with simulations), call spreads are optimal when the strikes match what you think are the likely low and high points of the stock by expiration.
Personally, I moved to call spreads when the stock hit lows in May (June 2024 $160/$333) in my IRA that will return 3x if share price is at $333. I think this is a good bet. If after January the stock price is still at these levels, I may sell the rest of my shares in my taxable account and do similar.
This happened 2 months ago and guess what......Shanghai wasn't shut down.Lockdowns beginning to creep back in Shanghai…
Unfortunately, I’d put the probability of Giga Shanghai going through at least one month of forced shutdown sometime this winter at 70%.
Chairman Pooh the moron at work again.
Could there be interruptions? Sure.
Is Tesla Shanghai much more prepared to deal with shutdowns by having the factory already set up for "closed loop" production? Yes
At this point in time you should know better than listening to Gary. It appears he's only succeeded because he's a domineering loudmouth rather than having any sort of judgement. I'd ascribe any investment advice he's proffered that ends up being successful as good luck rather than good judgement.
Last edited:
Yes Sir. Might get punished again when it actually happens too.So let me get this straight. The market tanked today because the jobs report made it more likely that the Fed will raise rates by the exact amount they told us they would a couple weeks ago?
Clearly the market needs to be back where it was in 1990.
But they burn gas at night (backup I assume). Story was on NPR. If so, they need batteries IMO.
bballshinobi
Member
IV of 70 is at 80 percentile though, so these calls are definitley not cheap. You might as well until the IV drops to 50. Recall how all the call options were brutally murdered during June-September of 2021. Your options will drop 30% when IV goes from 70 to 50 even if the stock stays flat, and we haven't even considered theta yet.
Hopefull that the stock won’t go down for the next two days.
WSJ has a helpful (scary) article on inflation… Remember not long ago they were burying potatoes?
www.wsj.com
WSJ has a helpful (scary) article on inflation… Remember not long ago they were burying potatoes?
Inflation Tracker: When Will Prices Stop Going Up?
The Journal has put together a price tracker of common items that many Americans buy monthly to see the direction of prices that matter to you.
www.wsj.com
This has been making the rounds on all the MSM sites.
I think it is funny they leave off the fact that this is far east of I-75.
The biggest factor in determining your outcome but just conveniently leave that part out. And this is how propaganda works.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
With over 13,000 registered cars Tesla was the 6th best selling car brand in Germany in September! Amazing.
This helped get BEV share to 20%.
1 Audi
2 BMW
3 Mercedes
4 VW
5 Skoda
6 Tesla
Source (German):
This helped get BEV share to 20%.
1 Audi
2 BMW
3 Mercedes
4 VW
5 Skoda
6 Tesla
Source (German):
corduroy
Active Member
My order filled at $222.22. Seemed like a lucky number. I said I wouldn't add anymore to my long position but couldn't resist.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
