Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

I'm not analyzing posts, I'm analyzing the comments on posts. So they're not headlines, they're what people are thinking about the headlines and saying about Elon in the process.

We do not know the proportion of comments from real people vs bots. AI is astoundingly good at making fake comments now.

 

[Singuy]

You'll have to excuse me if I lack excitement considering PepsiCo is being rewarded today by getting a P/E 25 on 12% annual revenue growth giving them a PEG that's twice that of TSLA.........Must be nice

That's because in a nuclear war, everyone knows that bottle caps are the new currency and this is being priced into the market.

 

[Todd Burch]

You'll have to excuse me if I lack excitement considering PepsiCo is being rewarded today by getting a P/E 25 on 12% annual revenue growth giving them a PEG that's twice that of TSLA.........Must be nice

I hope at the Q3 call Tesla will report more than 12% Y/Y growth. /s

I changed my avatar for the first time in over a year today. Take that, you Wall Street goons!

 

[Todd Burch]

That's because in a nuclear war, everyone knows that bottle caps are the new currency and this is being priced into the market.

Maybe they're getting rewarded for the smart decision of buying Tesla semis?

 

[2daMoon]

You'll have to excuse me if I lack excitement considering PepsiCo is being rewarded today by getting a P/E 25 on 12% annual revenue growth giving them a PEG that's twice that of TSLA.........Must be nice

Just think how much Pepsi can improve that as they add Tesla Semis to their fleet.

Ninja'd by @Todd Burch

 

[Nocturnal]

I know some don't care about these things but they are material. Ukraine has confirmed Starlink is operational and how helpful it is.

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580275214272802817

 

[Gigapress]

I guessed $100 even. How close did @mongo get?

$100-150 if I remember correctly.

 

[ZeApelido]

Video also talks about limited vision of front cameras (blind spots and the major one pointed out is in front of the car). As a solution, the car will most likely remember what it sees as it drives forward and it also sees while parked with sentry mode (so it can see anything that moves into that blind space). I can see a few corner cases (i.e. low battery and disabled sentry mode and you approached the car from behind) and maybe they'll have contingencies for things like that where it warns you prior to driving forward in those instances.

I hope Tesla talks about the BOM and all up cost/throughput savings per vehicle in Q3 earnings as I think the cost is much higher (the harness used to be closer to $50 x2 and ECU was closer to ~$32 and yes, they have economies of scale vs 2015 prices that I was privy to, but can't imagine it is that low now).

Also, I wonder how close Tesla is to removing all CANbus dependent components? This would remove all legacy wiring and unlock more materially large savings per car. The big one left being body controls.

You sound smart. If you get lucky, I think you might be able to work at Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I blame TSLA softness on a few things, in order of importance:
1) macro environment sucks
2) perception of Q3 delivery "miss"
3) People getting sick of Elon on Twitter and want nothing to do with him anymore
4) Twitter deal uncertainty

Number 1 is all that matters for now. Once we see proper fear and capitulation the company level performance will become relevant again

 

[CorneliusXX]

45x TTM GAAP P/E ratio after next week's earnings? 30x forward GAAP P/E for 2023 based on Wall Street's ridiculously low projections?

If that happens I'm selling all remaining shares for Jun '24 and Jan '25 LEAPs around $300 strike and submitting job applications to earn income to buy more.

P/E is more useful as a rule of thumb and not as a rule. When rates spike and markets are choppy it's near enough useless.

 

[The Accountant]

Have you said why you think Tesla would NOT do this method? (I'm curious).

Maybe it has some con's that some of us are not aware of? I'm guessing that if they don't need some amount of cash and you think the SP will be much higher in the future, then why not do this method?

The pro's seem nice though, assuming they aren't trying to catch the proverbial 'falling knife' with timing the SP bottom.

I felt that Tesla would do an "all cash" buyout of a company rather than use stock but I really don't have support for this position.
Some sellers actually prefer stock as I believe it defers the gain on the sale of the company. The tax basis (cost) of the shares in their current company become the cost basis of the Tesla shares they receive and they only pay tax when the Tesla shares are sold.

 

[The Accountant]

Haven't seen a response from @The Accountant or others on this topic (did I miss it?), but I think it is super interesting and our own @DaveT just made a YT video on it and does NOT seem to be aware of this method/reasoning.

Here is a primer on Treasury Shares and when this happens the company has two options on what to do with them:

The one that is meaningful for Tesla (as the other is retiring shares and why would they do that after splitting) is the one that @The Accountant mentioned

Holding onto shares​

There are several reasons why companies hold onto shares, including compensating employees, raising capital in the future, or using them for mergers and acquisitions.

I was told by someone I know on Twitter that they pointed Dave to my treasury share comment.

 

[H Mak]

UK people: there's a 3 part series starting on BBC2 at 9 oclock (in 15 mins) "The Elon Musk show"

 

[2daMoon]

Glancing at the clock I notice it is just about time for the daily appearance of Monty Python's foot to fall upon the SP and dash our hopes and dreams for a green close once more, is it not?

 

[H Mak]

Today I sent my 2 daughters enough dosh to buy 10 shares each. Ive done this a few times and the price keeps going down. They think I'm mad.

(Maybe I am)

 

[Unpilot]

Glancing at the clock, I notice it is just about time for the daily appearance of Monty Python's foot to fall upon the SP and dash our hopes and dreams for a green close once more, is it not?

Maybe not this time....


edit....WE WON! WE WON!!

 

[insaneoctane]

Is there? I think most of us here can agreed anything below a PE of 100 is ridiculously low for a company with this much growth, promise, and clear durable advantage.

After next Wednesday, 100 PE will be ~$365(+70% from here). In 98 days it'll be ~$450(+110% from here).

At some point macros and maximizing options market profits for MM's must crack. Earnings are what matters most.

Agree, but the macro is conveniently helping this facade go on much longer than it possibly would have otherwise...

This macro environment has emboldened WS, offered them cover and they are IN COMPLETE CONTROL of our stock ATM.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe not this time....

Just seeing if I could manipulate Murphy.

It worked!

 

[Todd Burch]

Jesus Christ just called me and he told me that today is the first in a string of 17 green days in a row for TSLA.

I am now a deeply religious man, and I thanked the Lord for his call.

(Since NASDAQ/S&P/Dow was down and TSLA was green, we beat macros by infinity). Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to blow a wad of cash to celebrate. 3 cheers for fiscal irresponsibility!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Jesus Christ just called me and he told me that today is the first in a string of 17 green days in a row for TSLA.

I am now a deeply religious man, and I thanked the Lord for his call.

(Since NASDAQ/S&P/Dow was down and TSLA was green, we beat macros by infinity). Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to blow a wad of cash to celebrate. 3 cheers for fiscal irresponsibility!

Your new avatar is only slightly less disturbing than that rotating head thing you did a few years ago.