Dreamy - but for the problem that anyone purchasing your suggested 23.76 million shares woulddrive the price up a lot more than its present level, so theA funny thing happened on the way to a Twitter purchase.........(share buybacks, Uncle Leo, Cathy Wood, Jack Dorsey, and other weekly breadcrumbs)
While Friday's closing share price hitting a new 52-week low of just under $205/share represents a new emotional low for many TSLA Longs witnessing the growing disconnect between TSLA share price and Tesla's performance as a company, it was likely met with great enthusiasm by many not wishing to see Elon purchase Twitter. And with so much FUD in the face of record earnings and path to orbit for TSLA it is fair to ask if the beat down of the stock price since the TWTR purchase announcement hasn't been pummeled in-part by Big Money that would much prefer to see the purchase effort unwind instead of go through. The week held so much more with comments from Uncle Leo, and Aunt Cathy, and red-headed step child Gary Black, and so many others on WS and main street that it should feed an interesting weekend of reflection...........and speculation.
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But looking forward first requires looking backwards. Following Elon's sale of TSLA stock near the ATH to pay taxes, he sold another 7.92 million shares for approximately $7 Billion (roughly $883/share) for his outright TWTR purchase efforts. I am still not certain after following Fred's take on this on Electrek and the perspective of others if these funds were independent of the funds Elon used for acquiring his 73.5 million shares for a 9.2% stake in TWTR - meaning he may have purchased those TWTR shares with funds from his previous tax sale and/or other sources (hoping someone here can illuminate which pile of money Elon bought his TWTR shares with). But it appears Elon acquired TWTR when the share price was roughly $40/share, so the purchase of those shares was just under $3B. And at the current price of TWTR, that 'investment' is worth about $700,000,000 more than he purchased it for. About 25% more while everything else is down 50%. Not a bad investment! And whether TWTR share price has stayed high because of Elon's desire to purchase it, or possibly because those not wanting him to purchase it have artificially increased the share price to make that purchase even more difficult, the result is still an extra $700,000,000 in Elon's pocket that could help fuel an unexpected twist.
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At the same time that Cathy Wood discussed the possibility of Elon and Jack Dorsey are perhaps working more closely together during her Yahoo interview this last week, our friend Uncle Leo (Koguon) made a very public Twitter request to Elon for Tesla to make a TSLA share buyback of biblical proportions at these current share prices. And despite Uncle Leo insisting on Twitter back in May 2022 that a share buyback would have a much greater impact on TSLA share price than Gary Black believed it would, Gary didn't waste any time this week with a similar request to Tesla itself. And for me, here is were it really gets interesting.............even before discussing the idea of Tesla being the buyer of those TSLA shares.
Elon's $7 Billion sale of 7.92 million shares at $883/share should now be split adjusted 23.76 million shares at $205/share.................and those shares are now only worth about $4.9 Billion. That would mean that Elon could purchase back all of the shares he sold earlier this year to purchase TWTR and have $2.1 Billion remaining from that sale. So from the perspective of a buyback on Elon's part, the significantly reduced TSLA share price leaves Elon in a position of regaining all his original shares plus retaining a considerable amount of remaining capital to begin a new venture with.
Enter the re-kindled talk of Elon and Jack Dorsey working together. Over the past 6 months it has been speculated on TMC, on Twitter, and even by Elon himself that an effort to create a platform similar to Twitter would cost from $40 million - $400 million...............if he had the right people around him. Cathy's message this last week is that he already has the right people (Jack). But is that in the context of a purchase of Twitter or of a new platform? Regardless, Elon is sitting on a potential $2.1 Billion after buying all his shares back. Which creates the the further possibility that Elon could buy back his 23.76 million shares and still have $700,000 million remaining after paying the $1 Billion fee for backing out of TWTR, and after investing in a new venture costing up to $400 million if he went that route instead. And he potentially could add an additional $700,000 million to that war chest by dumping his 9.2% stake in TWTR at current prices if those shares were purchased outside of his $7 Billion share sale. That's a whopping $1.4 Billion off-ramp to the positive for Elon at the moment.......................and it represents the TSLA Float being reduced by 23.76 Million shares in the process.
The ultimate irony
Let's assume that it is within the realm of possibilities that those not wishing for Elon to purchase TWTR have worked to keep the TWTR share price up while they have hammered the TSLA share price lower since this all began. Not too much of a stretch IMO with headline stories on MSN this week of Tesla EVs floating in the Florida hurricane flood waters bursting into flames everywhere as one possible example. But ironically, we have now arrived at the place where those that may have tried to prevent Elon from further influencing social media through a purchase of Twitter may have unknowingly provided him with all the capital monies necessary to begin his own social media platform, and all the publicity necessary to do it........................while leaving Elon with up to an extra $1.4 Billion after he buys all his shares back, and after he starts the new social media platform with Jack Dorsey. Yes, from a 50,000 foot view this is all getting much more interesting no matter how it turns out. And we didn't even discuss Tesla buying back any shares with their massive war chest yet either. That could lead to some unexpectedly serious compounded interest for Tesla and for TSLA Longs if it was on Elon's 3-D chess board at the moment.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Dreamy - but for the problem that anyone purchasing your suggested 23.76 million shares woulddrive the price up a lot more than its present level, so the
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It would have to be a Gigablog to hold all the material published by a Gigapress.
Rob's number is GAAP, Yahoo numbers are non-GAAP. In Q1, Tesla results were $2.86 GAAP vs $3.22 non-GAAP. With the split, those become $0.95 vs $1.07 . Based on an uber simplistic 30k more cars delivered @ $50k ASP @ 32% GM. I get a boost of $480 million for Q3 or $0.16 EPS @ 3B shares.
End result: $1.11 GAAP, $1.23 non-GAPP
Though I expect better due to service (used cars sales), energy, ASP increase phase in, and general volume efficency.
One of the wonders of Elon is that despite being primarily an engineer and self described Asperger’s what he excels is engineering management. Engineering fundamentally is just like any other bottom rung job. Sure it pays much better but when you are a fresh engineer your aren’t likely to be a star, you do grunt work. It’s engineering grunt work but it’s grunt work all the same.
The grand flaw in so many companies that management is a bunch of b-school people without engineering know how. So they nurture the sub-par engineers with social skills and the things that b-school taught them was good.
That’s less true of the tech industry than other industries. But it’s still true. You get high enough in most of the tech industry maybe the founder(s) we’re technical and are still CEO but the C-suite around them and the rest are likely “from the right background” for management marketing and finance. And consequently have a lot of pull with the engineering savy but otherwise lacking founder.
Elon is highly technical and can manage people, technical and not. Sure Elon doesn’t do everything. What makes him special is he defies the executive norm. He runs the show and understands it all.
One of the biggest “oh that’s interesting, he’s different” moments for me with Elon speaking wasn't one of the countless times he proved he had technical prowess. But it was when he was asked something along the lines about regrets or something he could have done better. And it was putting more value on what people bring to the table culturally and not rely exclusively on technical aptitude.
TL;DR Elon is a a genius not because he’s a rocket scientist or a any other cliche. He’s a genius because of the breadth of his skills that allow him to manage a wide range of people to accomplish tasks.
Frankly that’s a big thing I keep reminding myself when I question the twitter deal. Despite his meme lord nature and the detractors accusing him of not being socially aware or whatever, his success is based on his ability to do it all, not being a super engineer, but grasping the engineering as well as the way to get engineers to work as a team, and how to balance that with finance, and achieve great marketing without a marketing budget.
First time seeing this but my immediate takeaway is that what Karpathy is referring to as “intuition” is basically recognizing but not being able to comprehend what someone else is processing.
It’s not the depth depth of knowledge that he’s got, it’s the breadth.
He just impresses people in the public sphere by going off on technical stuff in depth. But the reality of his success is when Karpathy is 9 miles deep in a whole about neural nets Elon is thinking about how to best get a team to be able to develop it incrementally in a way that reassures allows the end goal to be reached while maximizing the utility of the team working on it and also relaying the impressiveness of the progress on a regular basis.
Reality is that above example is most likely a lot of what Ashok does. But Elon mentors him for that.
That’s leadership. That’s what elon excels at. Not one thing a lot. It’s a good balance of all the things that is a unique enough skill people who have great depth of knowledge in one area but not others see him as having superpowers because they can’t comprehend the other things on his mind.
"Roads! Where we're going we don't need roads."
But seriously. Are you saying that Teslas vehicles (control systems) behave differently of public roads compared to private?
Of course that's outside of driver input.
verystandard
Member
For those Toxic Bulls in this forum: Elon did not made any dumb tweets this Saturday (Other than making jokes with KGB agent and willing to continue funding starlink service to Ukraine for free).
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Shout out to Omar (Whole Mars Catalog) - he has been relentlessly tweeting out the wonders of FSD under the TSLA hashtag which goes a long way to countering FUD as his tweets get a fair bit of coverage.
²nd that. That guy is f*cking legend! For me, his tweets are a perfect mix between FUD-fighting, humor, trolling, entertainment,...
Want to have proof of his integrity? Just watch him smirk next to Trevor Milton. The guy who declared himself as the next Elon Musk, but for hydrogen ...
Omar didn't fell for his bullshit (in contrast to many Tesla-YT'ers who looked to diversify in a crowded Tesla media coverage. Trying to surf on the Nikola-hype).
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Sounds like a setup for a 2022 deliveries "miss".
That’s not even what Tesla says.
From every slide deck so far:
With Shanghai closed for more than half of Q2, I think this counts for ‘depending on factory uptime’. So no, Tesla did not guide for 50% growth this year. Lots of ifs in what Tesla actually stated.
From every slide deck so far:
With Shanghai closed for more than half of Q2, I think this counts for ‘depending on factory uptime’. So no, Tesla did not guide for 50% growth this year. Lots of ifs in what Tesla actually stated.
CLK350
Member
Recommending substack.com for best exposure, freedom from censoring and good company of writers. So gigapress.substack.com and quick summaries here pointing to your substack.
For example ( you choose .. at sustack.com - for health I appreciate what stevekirsch does - ex entrepreneur deciding to help out - How I'm treating my COVID - we could also use a good anti Tesla FUD substack, haven't really looked for one, Note, TeslaBoomerMama is on substack "Tesla Boomer Mama writes" )
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I’m contemplating whether to get back in the train. I sold my TSLA shares after the previous split (couple of years ago) as I felt the stock was overvalued.
If (P/E)/G (annualised, not forward looking) falls below 1, I’m back in.
Xepa777
Banned
To be fair, 50% yearly growth was supposed to be significantly harder towards the end of the decade, not this early on. If you look back even 1.5 years ago you would regularly read posts by people here on tmc targeting 80% growth for 2023.
495K production even with factory shutdown in 2Q … I’ll take it
So with 20-30K vehicles in transit that would still be ~460K deliveries
So more money for share buy back if they suppress prices on a miss
+ too much inventory buildup and they will say growth story is over
++ also current SP is likely way below where it should be for a miss?
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JSML
Member
Leo KoGuan is saying he’s going to buy 2 B of Tesla. Sorry I don’t know how to embed a tweet. Text below. A little unclear when he’s going to buy. But looks like it is in the near term.
“Agree.
I plan to spend additional $2+B to buyback Tesla shares regardless whether it is below $200 or above $200. Caveat, I need to raise $ 2+B in few years to fund this private-initiated buyback and hold shares ‘til 30 or 40. KQID time engine is busy squeezing time to
$$$”
“Agree.
I plan to spend additional $2+B to buyback Tesla shares regardless whether it is below $200 or above $200. Caveat, I need to raise $ 2+B in few years to fund this private-initiated buyback and hold shares ‘til 30 or 40. KQID time engine is busy squeezing time to
$$$”So, Tesla's guidance over the two quarters:
>50% as of Q4 2021 call
~>=50 as of Q1 2022 call, post invasion
<= 50% as of Q2 2022 call, post Shanghai covid which also delayed the upgrades
Which if these will the Q3 call guidance be...
Leo KoGuan is saying he’s going to buy 2 B of Tesla. Sorry I don’t know how to embed a tweet. Text below. A little unclear when he’s going to buy. But looks like it is in the near term.
“Agree.
I plan to spend additional $2+B to buyback Tesla shares regardless whether it is below $200 or above $200. Caveat, I need to raise $ 2+B in few years to fund this private-initiated buyback and hold shares ‘til 30 or 40. KQID time engine is busy squeezing time to
I read that as he will buy $2B more (regardless of price), once he raises the money in a few years.
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