Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I think most people here will consider a depression if they actually have to go back to work due to Tsla being in the toilet.

It happens. Be careful out there, folks

The 'Wheel' #21,581​

(avoid margerine!)

 

[StealthP3D]

Cars are produced batched in colors. Therefore they are shipped batched in colors. But agree with the sentiment, too many white ones out there!

No wait. There aren’t enough of any color. But there should be much more non-white .

My wife and I each bought a Pearl White Multi-coat Model 3 in 2018 and paid $2,000 extra each for the white color. Black was the only "free" color if I recall. Maybe silver too? Anyway, the following year Tesla made White the "free" color and the popularity exploded. But I don't think it's the same Pearl White Multi-coat which has really nice warmth and depth. The paint on both our cars has held up really well and they still look beautiful even after all the nasty roads and being parked outside in the weather most of the time. No regrets. But yeah, I agree, there are too many white ones now.

Cybertruck doesn't have this first-world problem and I will not tire of seeing futuristic silver Cybertrucks everywhere! Because it's the stuff Cybertruck is made of. Come on 2023!

 

[petit_bateau]

For those who are interested I updated my quarterly forecasts based on the recent results. See post #5,044 in the Near Future Quarterly Financal Projections thread:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Well, that's about 35K cars, right? (Rough math: 450,000/13) Maybe 40K if they hit 495K production and it's back-loaded? That's not so incredibly far from Troy's numbers, but it's still a higher discrepancy than I'd expect. By that logic, they have the last week of production from Q3 to...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Matias]

 

[ZachF]

…lot of big players posting earnings this week that could set the tone for macros.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I haven't seen a graph of deposits posted. Apologies if already here or if this one is inaccurate before June 2022.

Anyone fancy drawing on currentdeposits or have an updated source?

TSLA | Customer Deposits Chart and History 2015-2023 | DiscoverCI

Tesla Inc's Customer Deposits is $894 Million for the quarter ended September 30th, 2023. Since 2015, TSLA's customer deposits has increased from...

www.discoverci.com

Spoiler: InlineImage

"$1.18 Billion as of the quarter ended June 30th, 2022"

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 866728

Seller likely got "Margin Called"

 

[JRP3]

The CPI, PPI, CPE are all indicators that talking heads bring out as measures of inflation (they are), but what the Fed really wants to see is increased unemployment, as most economists will argue that this is the best indicator of economic growth (low unemployment + high worker productivity = high growth, but too low unemployment leads to wage inflation). When unemployment rates and new first time unemployment filings go up, we'll probably see the Fed step back on their rate increases. The problem with this approach (there is no perfect solution), is that you will cause economic pain to the people most at risk, the lower socioeconomic classes.

Remember, the Fed looks at lagging indicators, so as folks lose their jobs due to companies not being able to borrow as much, they'll sit back and relish the beginnings of deflation. They can stop this easily by lowering rates and turn it around again, but the roller coaster ride will continue.

Descriptions of a fundamentally flawed system.

 

[elasalle]

Investors will be able to contribute up to $22,500 in 401(k) plans and $6,500 in IRAs in 2023

The IRS has increased the 401(k) contribution limits to $22,500 and individual retirement account limits to $6,500 for 2023. Here's what investors need to know.

www.cnbc.com

• The IRS has increased the 401(k) plan contribution limits for 2023, allowing employees to defer up to $22,500 into workplace plans, up from $20,500 in 2022.
• The deposit limits will also increase for individual retirement accounts, jumping to $6,500 from $6,000.

Passive funds will have more money to buy next year.
More Beta for the Alphas is coming ...

 

[Todd Burch]

Posted by WuWa an hour ago: Fourth ship of the month for Giga Shanghai. Probably doesn’t include the cars shipped at end of Q3. Date stamp is Oct 20 for the video.

4 ships in 20 days?

 

[Matias]

Descriptions of a fundamentally flawed system.

Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation

Lags between rate increases and real-world impacts raise the twin risks of tightening too much and too little.

www.wsj.com

The International Monetary Fund said this month that interest-rate changes have their peak effect on growth in about one year and on inflation in three to four years.

It is just the way economy works.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Posted by WuWa an hour ago: Fourth ship of the month for Giga Shanghai. Probably doesn’t include the cars shipped at end of Q3. Date stamp is Oct 20 for the video.

4 ships in 20 days?

Amazing! Does anyone else use these ships and staging parking lots for cars, or is this a Tesla only shipping yard? (50% /s)
Are there other Chinese vehicle shipping on the other days of the week? If so, how is that going?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation

Lags between rate increases and real-world impacts raise the twin risks of tightening too much and too little.

www.wsj.com

The International Monetary Fund said this month that interest-rate changes have their peak effect on growth in about one year and on inflation in three to four years.

View attachment 866739

It is just the way economy works.

I'm not a mathematician, but seems the black line should go negative.

 

[bkp_duke]

Descriptions of a fundamentally flawed system.

But there isn't a better one. It's easy to criticize a system, it's a lot harder to improve it.

As I tell my employees, don't bring me problems, bring me solutions.

 

[hacer]

Nice, here's what they say...

"The committee's approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective."

How could it be otherwise?
If you think it can, please tell us now the date, (or if not now, at least on the day it begins) when this bear market will be over.
If you think that's impossible for the market, why is it any different for a recession?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Depends how fine you want to slice "mass"

It does not need any kind of approval at all for release to 100% of the vehicles in at least 7 US states, comprising almost 30% of the US population.




It's not Teslas intent to geofence at all-- but they absolutely do it and have for years. Even for wide release features they differ by what GEO/country you're in. Some features available in the US aren't available in Europe for example.

And initial FSDb geofenced both within the US (and still does- it won't turn on in some specific places) and outside the US... eventually they brought most of Canada inside the geofence but rest of world still is not....and parts of BOTH the US and Canada still aren't.

So releasing L5 to parts of the US but not others would be entirely in line with what they've done in the past-- they release features where:

They believe they are safe to use
and
Where it is legal to do so.

Even if that means locking those features out for people elsewhere.


So I certainly think if they ever get to believing they have L4 or L5 that can operate safely in public they wouldn't wait till it's approved "everywhere" to release it to the places it's already legal right now.... in fact Elon specifically cited doing so at Autonomy day in "some jurisdictions" before others for this exact reason.

Resolution down to every VIN so it seems.
This thought led to the power that Tesla could have (wouldn't) to order every vehicle surround the capitol... circle it.
But someday... people could organize protests using FSD by targeting single locations or areas on the map. Only one entity could actually disengage such a protest. Would that be the responsibility of Tesla, or will we have Freedom of Vehicles? Christy wouldn't need to block lanes of the bridge, people could summons 5,000 vehicles to cross it at the same time. This could get interesting in the future. I can't wait!

 

[ZeApelido]

I guess something is gonna be announced tomorrow. Many might speculate it’s a price cut, but most likely it is Elon has solved the Taiwan / China conflict and Shanghai will start shipping Teslas to Taipei.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584193296007503874

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584194642785947648

 

[Discoducky]

How could it be otherwise?
If you think it can, please tell us now the date, (or if not now, at least on the day it begins) when this bear market will be over.
If you think that's impossible for the market, why is it any different for a recession?

Exactly, very easy to tell we are in a recession after it has happened already.

Like the Fed, NBER focuses on lagging indicators and has little to no interest in predicting the future.

The whole point of monetary policy is to keep economic growth stable. That is exactly the opposite of what is happening now. I don't believe they have the wisdom to dynamically manage our current economic state; they have information and knowledge, but don't know what to do with it. Powell wants a legacy more than stability, that much is clear to me.

Greenspan tried to control the housing bubble, but was too slow, it spun out of control during these hikes...in retrospect, it should have happened faster and stopped around 3%, but instead went to 5.25% and acted like an economic stress test that popped the sub-prime lending market and derivatives. They went too far and too slow.

"The Fed tried to cool off the economy and the growing real estate bubble by hiking interest rates 17 times in two years, raising the fed fund target rate by 4 percentage points over the period."

Bernanke took over right before it popped, but he still oversaw 3 hikes, even though he fully understood the effects of going so high on historic rates from his 1983 paper.

It seems like the Fed has much less control over stability and really only has control over momentum inflection. This time they are going too fast and too much. Their reasoning is based on lagging indicators vs leading.

 

[JRP3]

But there isn't a better one. It's easy to criticize a system, it's a lot harder to improve it.

As I tell my employees, don't bring me problems, bring me solutions.

The first step in fixing a problem is realizing there is one.

 

[bkp_duke]

The first step in fixing a problem is realizing there is one.

You are not the first to point out the issue. Not by a long shot. It's been debated in papers for literally decades.