Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586387539975458818

9:40 ET right? Gonna have to get up early, but worth the watch!

 

[StealthP3D]

IRA benefits to Tesla seem too good to be true.

I'm anxious to see how this accelerates Tesla's Q1 earnings vs legacy ICE OEMs.

I have very mixed feelings about the IRA (right down to the actual name of the act). By 2027 or 2028, it will be "common knowledge" that the IRA is the sole reason motorists are making the transition to EV and also why Tesla dominates the car industry while the rest struggle. They will claim (falsely of course) that Tesla would be bankrupt or a minor player if not for the IRA which has benefitted them so greatly at taxpayer expense. That Tesla's success is a creation of government policy. You will not be able to convince most people otherwise.

 

[Stretch2727]

I don’t doubt that a bailout will come. I’m just not sure the shape of it.

Say there is a $20 billion bailout. That isn’t going to fix GM or Ford. You still have a company which is incapable of producing a product people want.

This is what my big concern is. A bailout is entirely possible, but would be 100% pointless. Everything that makes GM and Ford critical to US manufacturing is worthless in 5-10 years time. Pouring government billions into that money pit doesn’t change this. Does the government subsidize inefficient manufacturing processes indefinitely? Now we’re back to the weird EV rebates with a union clause.

What’s even weirder is the government incentives which these companies helped create are very likely going to accelerate their demise.

Just can’t get my head around how you salvage Detroit’s auto industry when this really hits full swing.

I think the domestic auto industry already got their bailout with the Inflation Reduction Act. If they can’t survive with with large subsidies on domestic EV’s and batteries that were recently passed, they are not going to survive no matter how much you give them.

 

[wipster]

I have very mixed feelings about the IRA (right down to the actual name of the act). By 2027 or 2028, it will be "common knowledge" that the IRA is the sole reason motorists are making the transition to EV and also why Tesla dominates the car industry while the rest struggle. They will claim (falsely of course) that Tesla would be bankrupt or a minor player if not for the IRA which has benefitted them so greatly at taxpayer expense. That Tesla's success is a creation of government policy. You will not be able to convince most people otherwise.

Let them say what they will. If Tesla is the success we believe it will be and if they pass the savings in the IRA down to consumers in the form of lower prices, it really won't make a difference what "they" say, it will be too late.

That's assuming the IRA evens exists after the next election... this one has me a little scared I must admit.

 

[jabloomf1230]

That's assuming the IRA evens exists after the next election... this one has me a little scared I must admit.

I assume that you mean 2024. I seriously doubt that any changes to FIRA would survive a veto.

 

[wipster]

I assume that you mean 2024. I seriously doubt that any changes to FIRA would survive a veto.

No I meant 2022, with the potential changes to both the House and the Senate. Hope not, but the current minority party is signalling it's in trouble if they become the majority. Just sayin'

Plus can a repeal of a bill even be vetoed? I don't know...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I have told both my grown children recently and even not so recently that if they don't buy an EV for their next vehicle they are s t u p i d..
What I haven't told them is that if they start to look like they're going to buy and ice vehicle I'm going to buy them both a Y...
No ice vehicles in this extended family are any longer allowed ....

Pretty much a no brainer decision for your kids...."Start to look for an ice vehicle and drop subtle hints to dad....."

 

[Paul_SF]

I have very mixed feelings about the IRA (right down to the actual name of the act). By 2027 or 2028, it will be "common knowledge" that the IRA is the sole reason motorists are making the transition to EV and also why Tesla dominates the car industry while the rest struggle. They will claim (falsely of course) that Tesla would be bankrupt or a minor player if not for the IRA which has benefitted them so greatly at taxpayer expense. That Tesla's success is a creation of government policy. You will not be able to convince most people otherwise.

And we will:

 

[StealthP3D]

It’s still in production though. Everyone that arrives at the Nissan Leaf dealer close to us disappears the same day. I talked to the sales guys there a couple weeks ago and they said the Arriya is still 2024 for them at the earliest. It kinda looks like Nissan is just kinda getting out of the whole EV thing.

I suspect the original Leaf was a big enough threat to the oil industry that they planted some people into Nissan management to "fix" the problem. Same with GM and the EV1. Not kidding here.

 

[Discoducky]

I suspect the original Leaf was a big enough threat to the oil industry that they planted some people into Nissan management to "fix" the problem. Same with GM and the EV1. Not kidding here.

You know the story of Carlos Ghosn, former Nissan CEO, champion of the Leaf, right?

Carlos Ghosn - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

As of January 2020,[3] he is an internationally wanted fugitive

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586387539975458818

 

[Robertj]

No I meant 2022, with the potential changes to both the House and the Senate. Hope not, but the current minority party is signalling it's in trouble if they become the majority. Just sayin'

Plus can a repeal of a bill even be vetoed? I don't know...

Just a quick query by google


The Framers of the Constitution gave the President the power to veto acts of Congress to prevent the legislative branch from becoming too powerful. This is an illustration of the separation of powers integral to the U.S. Constitution.

How many times has a presidential veto been overridden?


Two-thirds is a high standard to meet— broad support for an act is needed to reach this threshold. The President's veto power is significant because Congress rarely overrides vetoes—out of 1,484 regular vetoes since 1789, only 7.1%, or 106, have been overridden.

The Presidential Veto and Congressional Veto Override Process​

https://www.archives.gov › education › veto › background



Search for: How many times has a presidential veto been overridden?


How many votes do you need to override a veto?


A regular veto occurs when the President returns the legislation to the house in which it originated, usually with a message explaining the rationale for the veto. This veto can be overridden only by a two-thirds vote in both the Senate and the House.

 

[dhanson865]

You know the story of Carlos Ghosn, former Nissan CEO, champion of the Leaf, right?

Carlos Ghosn - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

As of January 2020,[3] he is an internationally wanted fugitive

Ghosn just took credit for it as CEO, he wasn't the real champion of the Leaf.

Andy Palmer was, anyone that doesn't say Andy Palmer is quoting revisionist history or just plain never understoood who did what.

Nissan's Andy Palmer discusses Leaf battery degradation crisis [w/video] - Autoblog (note the Video has been pulled from youtube)

Back in the day Andy Palmer had to champion the Leaf because his daughter had breathing problems exacerbated by smog from gas vehicles.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about it:

At the 2011 Tokyo Motor Show, Palmer said that "it's complete bullshit" to assume that electric vehicles move the CO2 issue to the powerstation. Palmer conceded that EVs could pollute even less if electricity generation would be made greener across the globe.[24][25]

Palmer was described as the "main proponent of electric vehicles" at Nissan and led on the development of the LEAF electric car.[26][27] Bloomberg described Palmer as "instrumental in developing the Japanese carmaker's battery-powered LEAF."[28]

quote of Andy Palmer from one of those footnotes:

"If we look at figures from the World Health Organization, more and more people are being diagnosed with things like asthma every day.


"Undoubtedly, one of the causes of asthma are pollutants in the air. Now, if the electric car simply moved the polluting source from the city to somewhere else, isn't that a good thing?


"If our kids can grow up without suffering from asthma and other childhood diseases caused by pollution, isn't that by itself a good thing? I think it is.

 

[wipster]

Just a quick query by google


The Framers of the Constitution gave the President the power to veto acts of Congress to prevent the legislative branch from becoming too powerful. This is an illustration of the separation of powers integral to the U.S. Constitution.

How many times has a presidential veto been overridden?


Two-thirds is a high standard to meet— broad support for an act is needed to reach this threshold. The President's veto power is significant because Congress rarely overrides vetoes—out of 1,484 regular vetoes since 1789, only 7.1%, or 106, have been overridden.

The Presidential Veto and Congressional Veto Override Process​

https://www.archives.gov › education › veto › background



Search for: How many times has a presidential veto been overridden?


How many votes do you need to override a veto?


A regular veto occurs when the President returns the legislation to the house in which it originated, usually with a message explaining the rationale for the veto. This veto can be overridden only by a two-thirds vote in both the Senate and the House.

Fully aware of all of the above. However, if Congress repeals the act without replacing it with amended legislation, there's nothing the Executive Branch can do about it. Hopefully that won't happen, but it could, that's all I'm saying.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I like the valley of death projection even though I'm not sure that the exact year of the overall low point is right or the end of ICE year either. But my biggest beef is he expects overall market share for cars to hit over 200 million units per year.

I have to chop the graph off at 2032 to be able to post it in other threads without having someone take the conversation off on that tangent.

If you believe robotaxi's happen before 2035 then those ever growing bars in the 2030s make no sense.

I can see if there is a harsh valley and ICE players going bankrupt there would be some unsatisfied demand that gives a later spike. But he isn't graphic a short term spike. He's graphing a never ending growth for auto units.

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vs

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I guess the argument is that instead of a long lifetime (say 18 years), the old ICE cars will be replaced when they are much younger, bringing forward demand plus the pent-up demand for the EV scarcity years. Getting an EV was hard, so when EV supply is plentiful, replace your ICE, as soon as possible. EVs will be so much more compelling than ICE vehicles which won't have parts availability and will have usage restrictions (clean air zones in several UK cities, more to follow).

Against that, in my town,

1. A lot of people use scooters for commuting/trip to small shops - you just rent them for the trip & drop at destination. Good if going out for the night, just walk/taxi back home if you've had a few pints.
2. Youngsters don't learn to drive at 17 - too expensive, parking hard/expensive/far away, alternatives now
3. More working from home
4. Regular/planned/big food shopping is often delivered by the supermarkets - no need to drag kids around or carry heavy items
5. Uber do grocery shopping/delivery at Aldi, Lidl & others
6. Online shopping for virtually everything
7. If you want a bottle of wine / picnic when you're in the park - you can order a robot from co-op/Frankie & Benny's etc straight into the park. You often see 3 or 4 waiting patiently at pedestrian crossings. It's become a treat for kids. They are heavily used.
8. Robotaxis & more

Robot Deliveries - Mum describing a robot delivery to the park as a treat for a kid

Our new overlords...

 

[Skryll]

I have told both my grown children recently and even not so recently that if they don't buy an EV for their next vehicle they are s t u p i d..
What I haven't told them is that if they start to look like they're going to buy and ice vehicle I'm going to buy them both a Y...
No ice vehicles in this extended family are any longer allowed ....

Quite a reward for a bad decision

 

[InTheMiddle]

Fully aware of all of the above. However, if Congress repeals the act without replacing it with amended legislation, there's nothing the Executive Branch can do about it. Hopefully that won't happen, but it could, that's all I'm saying.

Any action which changes (removing, editing, or adding sections of) the law would be a bill which if passed by Congress would be subject to veto by the Executive branch. Non-binding resolutions (to symbolically show support for a position) are not subject to veto, but only because they are, well, non-binding statements that don’t do anything to change any law.

 

[wipster]

Please do a moment of research before posting incorrect info. Any action which changes (removing, editing, or adding sections of) the law would be a bill which if passed by Congress would be subject to veto by the Executive branch. Non-binding resolutions (to symbolically show support for a position) are not subject to veto, but only because they are, well, non-binding statements that don’t do anything to change any law.

I did do research, but apparently it gave me an incorrect answer. My apologies.

 

[Skryll]

I suspect the original Leaf was a big enough threat to the oil industry that they planted some people into Nissan management to "fix" the problem. Same with GM and the EV1. Not kidding here.

'Make its Front look like a frog, treehuggers love frogs'

 

[InTheMiddle]

I did do research, but apparently it gave me an incorrect answer. My apologies.

My apologies then - and as part of my apology I’ve edited my original post to remove that.