Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Launch is still on, his source was incorrect. Well, no sleep for the wicked!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586505698414059520

 

[Speedr117]

I suspect the original Leaf was a big enough threat to the oil industry that they planted some people into Nissan management to "fix" the problem. Same with GM and the EV1. Not kidding here.

"NiMH is controlled by an oil company, Chevron, which sued to stop their use in plug-in cars."
“Chevron controls the worldwide patent rights for NIMH batteries used in the RAV4-EV, and won't allow their use in EVs.”

The patent eventually expired and new technoligy, Lithium Ion, came about. So yeah, big oil had a plan and executed on it. This is the one we know of...

 

[wipster]

"NiMH is controlled by an oil company, Chevron, which sued to stop their use in plug-in cars."
“Chevron controls the worldwide patent rights for NIMH batteries used in the RAV4-EV, and won't allow their use in EVs.”

The patent eventually expired and new technoligy, Lithium Ion, came about. So yeah, big oil had a plan and executed on it. This is the one we know of...

Things that make you go... Grrrrr

Still think we need buttons for posts (not the poster) that make you sad and mad. Hate to reply just to say grrrrr...

 

[geometro]

I have told both my grown children recently and even not so recently that if they don't buy an EV for their next vehicle they are s t u p i d..
What I haven't told them is that if they start to look like they're going to buy and ice vehicle I'm going to buy them both a Y...
No ice vehicles in this extended family are any longer allowed ....

Hi Dad,

Thanks for pushing me to sustainable transport. We recently moved… can you have Tesla deliver the Model Y to the address I DM’d you?

Love,
Your child

 

[jabloomf1230]

No I meant 2022, with the potential changes to both the House and the Senate. Hope not, but the current minority party is signalling it's in trouble if they become the majority. Just sayin'

Plus can a repeal of a bill even be vetoed? I don't know...

Any bill can be vetoed. We aren't talking about amending the US Constitution. Changes to FIRA won't happen until at least 2025, no matter how the election turns out in 2022.

 

[wipster]

Any bill can be vetoed. We aren't talking about amending the US Constitution. Changes to FIRA won't happen until at least 2025, no matter how the election turns out in 2022.

We shall see...

 

[Discoducky]

Ghosn just took credit for it as CEO, he wasn't the real champion of the Leaf.

Andy Palmer was, anyone that doesn't say Andy Palmer is quoting revisionist history or just plain never understoood who did what.

Nissan's Andy Palmer discusses Leaf battery degradation crisis [w/video] - Autoblog (note the Video has been pulled from youtube)

Back in the day Andy Palmer had to champion the Leaf because his daughter had breathing problems exacerbated by smog from gas vehicles.

This is what Wikipedia has to say about it:

At the 2011 Tokyo Motor Show, Palmer said that "it's complete bullshit" to assume that electric vehicles move the CO2 issue to the powerstation. Palmer conceded that EVs could pollute even less if electricity generation would be made greener across the globe.[24][25]

Palmer was described as the "main proponent of electric vehicles" at Nissan and led on the development of the LEAF electric car.[26][27] Bloomberg described Palmer as "instrumental in developing the Japanese carmaker's battery-powered LEAF."[28]

quote of Andy Palmer from one of those footnotes:

Wow, that escalated quickly! So sorry, my apologies.

My information is from employees I hired from Nissan.

This NPR Planet Money podcast was really a fun listen as to what happened to Carlos: Corporate Fugitive: Carlos Ghosn : Planet Money

 

[jerry33]

'Make its Front look like a frog, treehuggers love frogs'

The reason was that the gas car they converted made awful wind noises. The shape of the lights eliminated the problem. It's what happens when you try to do it on the cheap.

 

[wipster]

 

[wipster]

Man, the hits keep coming tonight:

 

[wipster]

Man, the hits keep coming tonight:
View attachment 868989

Zanegler has several videos of Semis on the road on Twitter, check 'em out, they're pretty cool and a vision into the future!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually Optimus looks to be roughly on par with a human of the same size in energy efficiency.

The 2.3 kWh pack (equivalent to ~ 2k cal.) is supposed to be sufficient for a full day’s work.

No. I've been through this in detail before. Humans:

• take >18 years from birth to entering the productive economy (subtract the resources they consume til them)
• more resources consumer for higher skilled workers > ie: post-graduate
• bot's work 3 shifts/day, 365 days/yr, while you need > 4x humans to staff the same job (1 shift/day - weekends, holidays)
• humans get sick, quit, waste time at work; bots get more productive with each software update
• humans sue the company for monetary gain; agitate for unions; actively try to slow down work

Those are just aquisition and operating costs. Then there's the biology deficit:

• Electric motors are ~90% efficient; human muscle is <25% (that's ~4x better for 'bots)
• silcon solar cells are ~20% efficent; photosynthesis (sunlight-to-biomass) efficiency is ~2% (~10x bots)
• plants redirect most solar energy into growth, much is not edible (less animal feed, waste-2-energy)
• humans eat animals which eat those plants; this reduces photosynthetic efficiency to 1:100 (diet-dependant)

The bottom line is that humans need ~1,000x more area under agriculture to do the same work as 'bot powered by solar. Now, how much land which is unsuitable to agriculture is suitable for solar farms?

Right now in terms of economics, it costs ~$300/mth for basic fuel needs of a human worker in America. Bot will need btwn 60KWh to 200KWh of electricity/mth. At $0.07/KWh (wholesale solar) that's roughly $15/mth or about 20x less than the cost to fuel a human. Or, you can run 20 'bots for the same price as 1 human. That human's gonna need to be the supervisor or foreman to earn their keep. (this is before the cost of scrub-land used for solar vs prime farm-land used for crops or pasture land for animals). Eventually, you run out of prime farm land, and this becomes a limit to growth for the economy. Solar/batteries/bots breaks out of that limit to growth.

TL;dr It's not even close. Humans can not compete for physical labor. Intellectual tasks requiring experience and judgement are next to go in the list of things that humans aren't as good at as 'bots.

Lawyers, accountants, politicians; I will miss them. /s

 

[wipster]

And this now on the Semi website:

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586522774171852801

 

[wipster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586522774171852801

One of the vids he has is a Semi from the Cyber Rodeo...

 

[CLK350]

You know the story of Carlos Ghosn, former Nissan CEO, champion of the Leaf, right?

Carlos Ghosn - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

As of January 2020,[3] he is an internationally wanted fugitive

Carlos Ghosn *was* the champion of the Leaf. I recall plainly interviews with Ghosn pushing for EV's. Even if Andy Palmer was the initial developer/ champion internally of EV's they would go nowhere without the CEO's support.

Back in 2008 Ghosn was pushing for EV's and ridiculed by the press - but nevertheless continued to push for EV's. I don't have the time to look for these earlier statements, but see his recent interview (also mentioning how Tesla with 1% of the market has more than 50% of the valuation of all ICE companies).

Also, IMHO Ghosn was indeed framed by the Japanese who correctly feared a Renault merger France was pushing for, against Ghosn's advice. Ghosn opposed the French who in reality wanted a take-over (because he knew the Japanese would never accept it), tried to prevent this with a compromise, which the French government (Macron) overthrew with new laws giving the Japanese faction no other choice than to stop the upcoming merger by arresting Ghosn. Even though it was risking huge losses for Nissan (turned out in fact to be true). See also Ravinder Passi's treatment, he knew too much as head of Nissan's global legal affairs.

Edit: grammar, details

 

[dhanson865]

"Carlos Ghosn *was* the champion of the Leaf."

I say no, Carlos Ghosn was *a* champion of the Leaf. He was one, but he's no Elon. He wasn't sleeping on the factory floor, looking at parts, reviewing code.

I'm saying Andy Palmer did more to convince Ghosn and manage those below him than Ghosn did. Somewhere along the way Ghosn approved the project and it became Andy Palmers responsibility. And Andy Palmer was the fall guy they got rid off when the packs started frying in the Arizona Heat.

I sure wasn't the fly on the wall at their meetings, didn't read their emails. But I followed the Leaf as closely as I did Tesla back then. I saw every press release, interview, and such. Much of which doesn't exist on the web now since the lawsuits, recalls, and warranty claims.

So maybe you disagree with me, I'd have a hard time pointing to videos and statements that have been removed from the internet to refute you thoroughly. So I've said my piece, we can "agree to disagree" if you like.

 

[Ogre]

I think the domestic auto industry already got their bailout with the Inflation Reduction Act. If they can’t survive with with large subsidies on domestic EV’s and batteries that were recently passed, they are not going to survive no matter how much you give them.

The subsidies seem to benefit Tesla more than anyone else. Most of the automakers rely on Chinese battery suppliers who are in a poor position to benefit from the subsidies.

If the change happens as fast as I think it is, they are going to get crushed. Healthy companies struggle when they lose 50% of their revenue in 3-4 years. The auto companies are not healthy.

 

[Ogre]

I have very mixed feelings about the IRA (right down to the actual name of the act). By 2027 or 2028, it will be "common knowledge" that the IRA is the sole reason motorists are making the transition to EV and also why Tesla dominates the car industry while the rest struggle. They will claim (falsely of course) that Tesla would be bankrupt or a minor player if not for the IRA which has benefitted them so greatly at taxpayer expense. That Tesla's success is a creation of government policy. You will not be able to convince most people otherwise.

I hope Washington does some major revisions to the act well before 2028. Well before then, they will be paying obscene amounts of money to Tesla. As much as I love this company, our government should not be handing out that kind of cash to private companies.

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.

It's not actually a 'waste' if Tesla uses all that funding to grow the battery supply. That is the intension of the legislation. Its appropriate to sunset the IRA law once that objective has been met. The larger issue is, if only Tesla has achieved the required critical mass, and few to none of the existing auto majors is able to survive w/o subsidies, will they continue while Tesla is cut off? That's a sheer waste, and historically, its exactly what happened with the 200K lifetime EV limit per manufacturer with the previous tax-credit. So yeah, it's quite possible to turn into a waste unless consumers vote overwhelmingly for Tesla.