Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Not sure why you think people are absorbed in media or what that has to do with the impression of the Tesla brand.

But the point is your friends and spouse will buy a Tesla, but they likely would have already bought Tesla before. There is, however, there is a segment of people, who used to want a Tesla, that no longer want anything to do with Tesla. The market for Tesla is not as large as it could be and the Tesla brand has a tarnish that it does not need.

Moreover, many Tesla (Elon) fans have refused to recognize this needless damage to Tesla and hold a CEO accountable, this becoming enablers to further behavior.

Wife's car is a 2022 eTron GT (not an SUV), so nothing like a Model Y.

Sadly, it makes my Model S feel like a kit car.

That's a very interesting hypothesis. Do you have any data to back it up beyond anecdotal personal experiences? How large do you think this segment is? How does it compare to the overall population and other factors that have been driving increased demand for EVs and Tesla?

Maybe something like quantitative evidence of reduced aggregate demand for Tesla vehicles? Lower rates of customer recommendation to friends and family? Lower rates of current customers intent to purchase future Teslas? Increased rate of "conquest" sales from Tesla by other brands?

Also, don't you think Tesla internally has this data and would make Elon knock it off if it were actually causing major demand destruction?

 

[bkp_duke]

Not sure why you think people are absorbed in media or what that has to do with the impression of the Tesla brand.

But the point is your friends and spouse will buy a Tesla, but they likely would have already bought Tesla before. There is, however, there is a segment of people, who used to want a Tesla, that no longer want anything to do with Tesla. The market for Tesla is not as large as it could be and the Tesla brand has a tarnish that it does not need.

Moreover, many Tesla (Elon) fans have refused to recognize this needless damage to Tesla and hold a CEO accountable, this becoming enablers to further behavior.

Wife's car is a 2022 eTron GT (not an SUV), so nothing like a Model Y.

Sadly, it makes my Model S feel like a kit car.

Great, that's your N=1. Here is my N=100 counter argument.

I have lived in a new, pretty nice, neighborhood (mountain top for @Krugerrand) for the past 5.5 years. When we moved in, we were only one of 2 out of 50 homes with a Tesla. We were the only home that had powerwalls installed in the first year.

Fast forward to today, and there are 20 Teslas, ONE Audi eTron (the owner is not a big fan - says the software in it is sub-par), and 30 of the homes have 3 or more powerwalls installed in them.


Audi is never going to be more than a niche-filler. They blew their chances by giving Tesla a 10+ year headstart.

 

[Captkerosene]

I think Musk's view on climate change is and always has been that it is a threat to the survival of the species, but that it is within our power to avoid it.

I doubt that he thinks it's a threat to the survival of the species ... a "threat" yes, but not to the survival of the species. Seems to me he's distanced himself from you guys. Do you ever remember him saying anything about existential threat, the atmosphere catching on fire etc.? I could well be wrong, I didn't start following Elon until 2018, but since then I've never heard him say words to that effect.

He also is pro nuke. He is pro higher oil production. Pro negotiated settlement in Ukraine. He's opposed to vilifying those in the oil industry. He also was anti-shutdown and govt overregulation. He's concerned about deficits. He's anti woke mob. He's a capitalist. He respects hard work. Doesn't load up his business with political officers or appointees. God, I love this guy.

For every sale lost to the Twitter woke mob crowd, five extra cars can now be sold to those who didn't want to be associated with liberal politics.

 

[Discoducky]

TL;DR - (I'll put more detail in the FSD thread when I have time) - 2.4 drive - Same for me as 2.3, no material difference, all the good stuff is still good and issues remain with roundabouts, late lane changes and turn signals, no creep wall at some intersections (missing lane connectivity)

10.69.3 release notes look promising however (this is only available to employees currently)

Key takeaways are

• Quicker, more confident turns at complex intersections
• Less unnecessary slowdowns around VRUs and nonVRUs
• Getting into the correct lane sooner
• Sometimes going over lane boundaries like a human would in certain situations

Things I'm not seeing

• Roundabout improvements specifically
• Creep wall improvements
• Median improvements (maybe 'gore' area includes this)

 

[EverettRuess]

Better yet, do this: For everyone claiming October numbers show Chinese demand has cratered, remind them that the only number that matters is production. Tesla is an automaker in which cars are sold before they're made. Therefore, production numbers are a direct indicator of sales, limited by production capacity. The cars don't go to dealer lots to be sold later. It doesn't matter if the car goes to China, Australia, or Timbuktu. Sold cars is all that matters.

Production is all that matters. Come on everyone, join in the Rob Maurer chant: PRODUCTION IS ALL THAT MATTERS!

Serenity now, serenity now, serenity now.

So are we going to see Oct production numbers? When?

 

[oldTAVguy]

While we are OT,

Spoiler: Why post-apocalypse Earth still better than Mars

the earth after being clobbered by the large asteroid is still FAR more habitable than Mars is and will ever be.
It has crucial-for-life van Allen Belts (and it still would).
It has oxygen (and it still would) and an atmosphere that will hold in place (unlike Mars' will ever again no matter how much O2 or CO2 we pump into it).
It would still have the basic life substrate (microbial life) that took a couple billion years to lay down (and could only happen given the above).
Due to those factors alone, I cannot think of a global catastrophe (even nuclear war) that would leave Terra less hospitable to life than Mars.
If we want to build in a lifeless place to have a secondary colony (possibly a good idea indeed) the moon is a lot closer and the solar there is FANTASTIC compared to Mars. (For some reason I now think of the Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert is selling half price lottery tickets. Dilbert recognizes "those are a day old, they are no good anymore" and Dogbert points out "But it's a great deal. 1/2 price but only 0.000001% less chance of winning!").
Yes, keep building the rockets, great tech with many uses, maybe we'll mine the asteroid belt, but the Mars thing still makes no sense to me.
Just saying, while we are OT.

Where will you get life from if all of life on Earth has been erased?

 

[H Mak]

Where will you get life from if all of life on Earth has been erased?

Seriously, what has this got to do with Tesla?

 

[JRP3]

Do you ever remember him saying anything about existential threat, the atmosphere catching on fire etc.?

Strawman , no one says the atmosphere will catch fire. What Elon has said:

"Climate change is the biggest threat that humanity faces this century, except for AI," Musk said in an interview with Rolling Stone. "I keep telling people this. I hate to be Cassandra here, but it's all fun and games until somebody loses a ****ing eye. This view [of climate change] is shared by almost everyone who's not crazy in the scientific community."

Elon Musk outlined the two critical things threatening humanity

Humanity as we know it has a lot to deal with.

futurism.com

God, I love this guy.

Glad to see you agree with him about the threat of climate change then.

 

[kbM3]

I was just going to post something similar. I too have gained a new, more positive outlook on FSD beta (bFSD). I've previously said that in its current form it has zero utility. Yesterday changed my mind.

I was on a 7 hour trip and I was rerouted off of the Interstate for about 3 hours of that trip. Basically, I had to take side roads and state highways in order to pass through the entire state of Tennessee. This included winding paths through the mountains and neighborhoods in small towns. It dealt with a lot of odd situations with strangely-shaped intersections and pedestrian encounters.

bFSD performed very, very well. Since I didn't know where I was going I was really glad that the car knew when to slow down and take turns. Phantom braking was almost non-existent. And what there was of it was so subtle it was almost unnoticeable.

I did have two "take over immediately" situations. Neither can be explained because the car was not in an odd situation at all. It just suddenly told me to take over. Obviously, we can't have that for a Robotaxi. But for a driver assist system, it's ok.

The other problem it still has is that it moves into turn lanes when there is no turn coming up. That causes some bad problems and as I see it, that's the next big thing they need to fix.

But overall, I was extremely impressed. FSD is definitely improving and improving fast. It makes me wish the stock was going down today instead of up. Because yesterday's experience made me want to buy more shares.

If I understand the following 10.69.3 release note correctly, it will help fix erroneous entries into turn lanes:


- Added a new "road markings" module to the Vector Lanes neural network which improves lane topology error at intersections by 38.9%.

 

[dhanson865]

So are we going to see Oct production numbers? When?

you can get Oct estimates at any time, from various sources not named "Tesla". You won't get official number from Tesla because they only give out official numbers for Quarters and Years. So you'll get a Q4 2022 number in January 2023 but you won't ever get an accurate Oct 2022 number.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

That's a very interesting hypothesis. Do you have any data to back it up beyond anecdotal personal experiences? How large do you think this segment is? How does it compare to the overall population and other factors that have been driving increased demand for EVs and Tesla?

Maybe something like quantitative evidence of reduced aggregate demand for Tesla vehicles? Lower rates of customer recommendation to friends and family? Lower rates of current customers intent to purchase future Teslas? Increased rate of "conquest" sales from Tesla by other brands?

Also, don't you think Tesla internally has this data and would make Elon knock it off if it were actually causing major demand destruction?

Let’s hope. But let’s also hope there are people on the board that have a problem with the CEO promoting stories that there is some kind of justification for the attempted murder and kidnapping of an old man. Its indefensible. It stuns me that there are people here who think it is.

The board needs to communicate to shareholders what their intentions are if he continues down this path.

 

[Usain]

Also, don't you think Tesla internally has this data and would make Elon knock it off if it were actually causing major demand destruction?

I'm guessing that the answer is "no" to both.

I think it would be really hard to gauge what demand destruction Elon might be causing. And even if the data were available, Elon will be Elon.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yep, Elon will be Elon.

And with that note we officially end the 'Twitter and its fallout' discussion in the main thread. There's always the dedicated thread (although that has sunk so far into the poltical abyss that I have given up - for now - moderating it). The main thread will now be free from Twitter talk. Mods won't catch everything immediately - we have a life and occasionally even sleep - but then the clean-up will be done a few hours later. If we feel like it posts will be moved, if we don't feel like it they will be nuked.

Self-moderation is ofcourse much appreciated.

 

[Todd Burch]

My dude, deliveries. Deliveries.

If you don't ship, you don't have anything in the business world.

Unless you're one of the nutjobs that believes that Tesla dumps fresh cars in the ocean or stores them in dusty lots for a rainy day, the only difference between production and deliveries is a few weeks.

Production = Deliveries given a sufficient time horizon for a car to ship from one side of the world to another, and time for the buyer to go pick it up. Unfortunately, right around January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, the dummies on Wall Street forget that time continues beyond the end of the quarter, and forget to account for this delay.

 

[Creekstalker]

While we are OT,

Spoiler: Why post-apocalypse Earth still better than Mars

the earth after being clobbered by the large asteroid is still FAR more habitable than Mars is and will ever be.
It has crucial-for-life van Allen Belts (and it still would).
It has oxygen (and it still would) and an atmosphere that will hold in place (unlike Mars' will ever again no matter how much O2 or CO2 we pump into it).
It would still have the basic life substrate (microbial life) that took a couple billion years to lay down (and could only happen given the above).
Due to those factors alone, I cannot think of a global catastrophe (even nuclear war) that would leave Terra less hospitable to life than Mars.
If we want to build in a lifeless place to have a secondary colony (possibly a good idea indeed) the moon is a lot closer and the solar there is FANTASTIC compared to Mars. (For some reason I now think of the Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert is selling half price lottery tickets. Dilbert recognizes "those are a day old, they are no good anymore" and Dogbert points out "But it's a great deal. 1/2 price but only 0.000001% less chance of winning!").
Yes, keep building the rockets, great tech with many uses, maybe we'll mine the asteroid belt, but the Mars thing still makes no sense to me.
Just saying, while we are OT.

I'm picturing Elon reading this thinking to himself: "Well scrap the whole damn thing then. My entire life's mission has been futile. Why couldn't I have consulted growler23 earlier?"

 

[Stretch2727]

Toyota cuts output target amid chip crunch as profit tumbles 25%

Toyota Motor Corp on Tuesday posted a worse-than-expected 25% drop in quarterly profit and cut its annual output target, as the Japanese firm battles surging material costs and a persistent semiconductor shortage.

www.reuters.com

For those that did not read the entire article, see the quote below. Yes, that Tuesday is November, 1 2022.

"Toyota reiterated on Tuesday that battery-powered EVs are a powerful weapon for decarbonisation, but that there are various other options to achieve the goal."

 

[Todd Burch]

So are we going to see Oct production numbers? When?

You will see China exports + retail sales numbers on a monthly basis, because China publishes those. That tells us about China production, which is important. But you can't look at the China retail sales number (the number registered to China buyers) and make any sense of it, because Tesla may have decided to ship all of the month's production to Australia, for instance.

And we know Tesla doesn't publish October numbers. So you get to see the full picture at the end of the quarter, and only then.

 

[Gigapress]

I doubt that he thinks it's a threat to the survival of the species ... a "threat" yes, but not to the survival of the species. Seems to me he's distanced himself from you guys. Do you ever remember him saying anything about existential threat, the atmosphere catching on fire etc.? I could well be wrong, I didn't start following Elon until 2018, but since then I've never heard him say words to that effect.

He also is pro nuke. He is pro higher oil production. Pro negotiated settlement in Ukraine. He's opposed to vilifying those in the oil industry. He also was anti-shutdown and govt overregulation. He's concerned about deficits. He's anti woke mob. He's a capitalist. He respects hard work. Doesn't load up his business with political officers or appointees. God, I love this guy.

For every sale lost to the Twitter woke mob crowd, five extra cars can now be sold to those who didn't want to be associated with liberal politics.

If you actually think Elon Musk is not deeply concerned about climate change, with all due respect I would recommend selling all your TSLA stock and doing more homework before investing in this company.

Is calling it "very dangerous" and repeatedly referring to our disruption of the carbon cycle as "the dumbest experiment in history" strong enough language?

He specifically said on Kara Swisher's Recode podcast that Tesla went through 2018 Production Hell because "Tesla cannot die":

Yes. It’s very important for the future of the world. It’s very important for all life on Earth. This supersedes political parties, race, creed, religion, it doesn’t matter. If we do not solve the environment, we’re all damned.

He spends almost all his time working on and talking about the solution, but that doesn't mean he thinks that the problem is no big deal. What it does mean is that attempts to motivate change via fear, guilt and shame has not worked despite decades of people trying it, and he's trying to win over everyone with a bunch of carrots instead of sticks.

 

[betstarship]

Unless you're one of the nutjobs that believes that Tesla dumps fresh cars in the ocean or stores them in dusty lots for a rainy day, the only difference between production and deliveries is a few weeks.

Production = Deliveries given a sufficient time horizon for a car to ship from one side of the world to another, and time for the buyer to go pick it up. Unfortunately, right around January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, the dummies on Wall Street forget that time continues beyond the end of the quarter, and forget to account for this delay.

Deliveries, from an accounting perspective, is when accounts receivable is credited. Production is a debit until its realized in accounts receivable. I dont count production as in the hands to customers and when revenue is realized.

 

[Todd Burch]

If you actually think Elon Musk is not deeply concerned about climate change, with all due respect I would recommend selling all your TSLA stock and doing more homework before investing in this company.

Why do we, on a TSLA investor forum, encourage so many people to sell TSLA stock?

No. Stop doing that!

The correct answer is "with all due respect I would recommend holding all your TSLA stock and doing more homework before investing more in this company. Then buy a whole bunch more stock.