Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Oh I definitely agree that the top .01% are the most important when you are talking things like AI, etc, but there are also the top 10% that really drive a lot of other pieces and all of those people have options as to where to work.

Like I said, Tesla doesn't have a problem hiring engineers, Tesla and SpaceX are consistently the number 1 and 2 top choices of places to work. Tesla's job is to filter the applicants and only select the best ones. The media lies and noise is simply part of the selection process. The ones who don't "get it" are the same people who wouldn't "get it" when tasked with difficult problems. It actually makes more sense to think this causes a demand problem, not a talent problem. Because the general public is not as smart as the applicants at Tesla. If it filters out some of the less talented ones, it simply doesn't matter.

 

[MABMAB]

Run rate from investopedia
read risks section

Run Rate: Definition, How It Works, and Risks With Using It

The run rate shows how the financial performance of a company would look if current results were extrapolated into future periods.

www.investopedia.com

 

[StealthP3D]

The way Tsla uses run rates they do not indicate that production remains at that level thereafter
hence, meaningless
evidence of this is failure of the guesstimators of sales and production.
if run rate were so cut and dry the numbers would be known.
Happy to see so many disagrees on this, y’all been a bunch of sorry arses round here for quite a while.

No one said the run rate was cut and dried as it applies to actual production. That's not what this metric means. And that's the problem, you are putting words into our mouths when it comes to the meaning of run rate. It's not that it's a meaningless metric, it's that it doesn't mean what you say it should mean. Specifically, that if the run rate was so cut and dried, it would imply a certain production rate. That is a misunderstanding and the cause of your trouble with the term.

 

[traxila]

For those of you who scoffed and laughed a month ago when I sold off a chunk of TSLA and bought more SGML.
In fact, I wish I had transitioned more.
View attachment 872146

I didn’t laugh and scoff. I sold SGML short at 37.10. I closed and am done with that, but perhaps I should have sold TSLA short as well. LOL

BTW, not sure what kind of ego validation you are looking for here that your profits have not already satisfied. I hope you find it, but I am doubtful.

 

[mongo]

I run a farm.
I just harvested 50 pounds of product in 2 hours.
my run rate is thus 22,000 pounds this year.
should I, or anyone evaluating my business, value my company based upon run rate?

No, because your math is wrong by an order of magnitude.
However, given a continuous supply of 'you' equivilent workers and continuous supply of product, then the harvest (run) rate is 600 pounds a day baring any limitations which would be called out.

 

[MABMAB]

No one said the run rate was cut and dried as it applies to actual production. That's not what this metric means. And that's the problem, you are putting words into our mouths when it comes to the meaning of run rate. It's not that it's a meaningless metric, it's that it doesn't mean what you say it should mean. Specifically, that if the run rate was so cut and dried, it would imply a certain production rate. That is a misunderstanding and the cause of your trouble with the term.

Whose mouth did I put words into? Where?
I said run rate was useless
i said it was capacity only
i have no trouble with the term
it exactly means what I said it does mean, it is capacity at an 8ndividaul point in time.

 

[Drax7]

Not normally a fan of Mr. Black, but he may be on to something here:
View attachment 872121

Feels like he is fabricating a narrative to explain the sell off.

if Elon did not sell the week before the closing, it’s very unlikely
he will sell now.

 

[InDaClub]

The way Tsla uses run rates they do not indicate that production remains at that level thereafter
hence, meaningless
evidence of this is failure of the guesstimators of sales and production.
if run rate were so cut and dry the numbers would be known.
Happy to see so many disagrees on this, y’all been a bunch of sorry arses round here for quite a while.

run rate is we can do this
it does not mean we are doing this.

trust me, I have a blue

Can you take it to the ‘#Run Rate Hate’ thread?

 

[StealthP3D]

For those of you who scoffed and laughed a month ago when I sold off a chunk of TSLA and bought more SGML.
In fact, I wish I had transitioned more.
View attachment 872146

It's unfathomable that a knowledgeable investor would gloat over a pick that has only out-performed over such a short period of time. It hasn't even been a month. I know little of the fundamentals of the company you bought but I would suggest you study up on the mathematics of the volatility of individual stocks. Then get back to me and let me know how much significance your chart has.

And, if you are short-term trader, not an investor, then, yeah, I can see why you are kicking yourself for not having more conviction and taking such a small position. But hindsight has zero value in both investing and trading, so I still wonder how you think it's a good idea to gloat over this.

 

[MABMAB]

No, because your math is wrong by an order of magnitude.
However, given a continuous supply of 'you' equivilent workers and continuous supply of product, then the harvest (run) rate is 600 pounds a day baring any limitations which would be called out.

Fifty pounds in 2 hrs is 25 pounds per hour.
365 days x 24 hrs per day x 25 is really really really Close to 22,000 pounds

 

[Drax7]

I run a farm.
I just harvested 50 pounds of product in 2 hours.
my run rate is thus 22,000 pounds this year.
should I, or anyone evaluating my business, value my company based upon run rate?

So you don’t think tesla will produce 2 million cars in 2023, let’s get to the bottom
of it.
What is your number given your infinite wisdom.

 

[MABMAB]

A 2 million a year run rate is within months.

That alone could translate into a $20 billion profit
Run rate within a year.

The present mkt cap of $650 billion would imply a forward p/e of 32.
for a firm growing way above 40%.

We are in the value zone, just my opinion.

This poster ran math to value the company based upon run rate

 

[thesmokingman]

Give it a rest with the run rate, we get it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Fifty pounds in 2 hrs is 25 pounds per hour.
365 days x 24 hrs per day x 25 is really really really Close to 22,000 pounds

No, it isn't. It is, however, really close to 220,000 pounds, which is an order of magnitude more, like @mongo said.

 

[wipster]

Feels like he is fabricating a narrative to explain the sell off.

if Elon did not sell the week before the closing, it’s very unlikely
he will sell now.

Where in those tweets did Black say or imply anything about Musk selling shares? Nowhere mon Frere...

 

[Rammstein]

For those of you who scoffed and laughed a month ago when I sold off a chunk of TSLA and bought more SGML.
In fact, I wish I had transitioned more.
View attachment 872146

Good job timing the market. I say keep trying to time it. You seem to have a real skill here!

 

[MABMAB]

You can't sell what you don't make, so run rate is very much not a BS number. It dictates just how many vehicles Tesla will have to sell in Europe or ship to Taiwan and potentially other places and probable reduced wait times when ordering a car.

No BS!!!

No, it isn't. It is, however, really close to 220,000 pounds, which is an order of magnitude more, like @mongo said.

Oops!
still, the question begs, is this how I or anyone else should value my farm?
I say no Because that two hour run rate is meaningless

and it is why I say Tesla run rate is meaningless.
it is subject to pure bias, manipulation, hope, time scale error. It is based upon a small unit of time,
and only the chief twit aka cheerleader uses it

 

[Drax7]

Where in those tweets did Black say or imply anything about Musk selling shares? Nowhere mon Frere...

He is implying Elon will need to raise funds to run twitter.

 

[SN_8]

I run a farm.
I just harvested 50 pounds of product in 2 hours.
my run rate is thus 22,000 pounds this year.

Checks out.

 

[MABMAB]

View attachment 872166
Checks out.

That thar is gold!