Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Strangely enough, there seems to be a glitch in AH trading as $TSLA is showing a color I have not seen in ages.

 

[UkNorthampton]

That will be terrible as Tesla doesn't want to crush the EV competition. Also this will play exactly to what the shorts have been predicting for years, that margins are not sustainable once competition enters.

Yeah, it doesn't feel right to me unless Elon/Tesla are frustrated by recent closures & slowdowns & think a boost to the mission is needed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Q's climbing steadily as TSLA drops back. I hope to heck he's selling, and finishes up today.

Haha, called the inflection pt to within 2 minutes:

TSLA $191.82 +1.10 After-hrs 16:45 ET

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Singuy]

Yeah, it doesn't feel right to me unless Elon/Tesla are frustrated by recent closures & slowdowns & think a boost to the mission is needed.

As much as Elon loves his mission, he is still a world class entrepreneur. Tesla has world leading margins not because they are a charity...quite the opposite.

 

[wipster]

Shortzies covered their positions
$$ that was patiently waiting on sidelines for a signal to enter market
Big $$ made enough riding everything all the way down
Someone left the interns in charge
People finally realized that the world is not going to end
Hope this carries into tomorrow

Ee

Free EAP if you take delivery before Dec 31st. Problem solved.

Or includes FSD compatibility like the lease returns... that would be an incredible incentive especially if it only applies for cars ordered and delivered by Dec. 31st.

Edit: spelling

 

[NicoV]

But they have China and Europe to fullfill first so they likely won't drop prices for another 1-2 quarters.

Nobody has been able to buy any kind of new Model S or X in China or Europe for almost 2 years. I think that backlog will take more than 2 quarters to clear.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Ee
Or includes FSD compatibility like the lease returns... that would be an incredibly incentive especially if it only applies for cars ordered and delivered by Dec. 31st.

FUSC

 

[SmokyPeat]

Haha, called the inflection pt to within 2 minutes:

View attachment 873302

TSLA $191.82 +1.10 After-hrs 16:45 ET

Cheers to the Longs!

You're welcome!
I hope he's done now.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I don't have much insight into the business. I think the CEO has lost focus as well as not control his asbergers assuming that is possible. I hope he can depend on a friend to help him. He is ruining the brand as well as letting the stock market pound his company because they smell blood. His public persona has been evicerated by his moronic tweets.

But your midday prediction of a TSLA sell off was the catalyst needed to reverse the witchcraft and voodoo put on TSLA of late.. So I vote you predict the same thing every day.
I love reverse jinx's.

Of course please feel free to stop said predictions if we don't have an up day.

 

[Gigapress]

Giga press I love ya man but no it’s not. If you plot the points at which Elon has sold and/or heightened the fear of his selling by whatever he said about his Twitter deal in Q2 and Q3, he has repeatedly knee capped the stock when it was outperforming the macros. And again, it’s the method of his selling that is the destructive part. Multiple times this year TSLA went from vastly outperforming it’s beta, a few times actually beating the Nasdaq straight up only for Elon to come along and destroy the stock

I'm not familiar with exactly what those dates are, but if you screenshot the chart and annotate it, that might help me see what you're saying.

If you randomly selected any trading day from the last year and simply told me the S&P 500 index on that particular day, without providing any additional information, then I could use this formula to guess what the TSLA price was and I would have a 90% chance of accuracy within +/- $42 (post-split) and 50% chance of +/- $18. In all cases, my estimation error would be less than $83.

Moreover, if you had selected from the post-Twitter era (April-November) then the formula would be biased for underestimating TSLA, because TSLA has been, on average, slightly outperforming this simple model over time.

Maybe we can say TSLA would've outperformed more without Elon drama and selling, but that's a lot harder to test.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Now can we go to the moon?

 

[ZeApelido]

Allegedly Musk did indeed sell this tranche of TSLA stock to "save" Twitter, according to NY Times.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590817240945168384

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Allegedly Musk did indeed sell this tranche of TSLA stock to "save" Twitter, according to NY Times.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590817240945168384

"Allegedly"

 

[Mengy]

I meant "expected" based on the linear regression model from the first chart. The idea was to test how well this simple model fits the actual data with extra complexity added in.

The formula is:

TSLA_expected = (S&P 500 - 2423) / 6.14​

Oh, that sounds like TA, though I might be misunderstanding. I don't believe in TA.

 

[Paracelsus]

My guess is that Elon was selling into the strength until 3:00 today. Then the brakes came off.

I think Elon would have considered a need to sell prior to any Tesla buy-back if only to avoid any accusations of using a company buy-back to pump the stock prior to his selling - as that would be bad optics. It’s worth considering that Tesla could be buying TSLA now that Elon is done selling, and it is worth considering that Elon put the needs of the company before his needs, which would have forced him to sell at the lower prices so that Tesla could still buy shares at these prices after he was done, and have those shares before the end of the year. That’s my vote - that we shouldn’t vilify the man who has bled on the sharp end of the spear for the company and for the mission and for the planet until we know the whole story. It’s just as likely he did the noble thing IMO, as he has done many times before.

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, this just showed up on Teslarati

World's largest autonomous vehicle test to be conducted in Nashville

Numerous universities and automakers from around the globe are cooperating on what will be the world's largest autonomous vehicle test.

www.teslarati.com

... and the first thing that came to mind was imagining a herd of 100 or more Tesla FSD Beta vehicles gathering and joining in voluntarily, just for fun.

Like photo-bombing, or a flash-mob.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Anyone else getting Confirm pop-up for choosing Like reaction? UI nightmare

Does TMC require $8 to hit the like button 1st time without confirmation

Yes and you now owe me $8 for the funny click on your post

 

[elasalle]

Anyone else getting Confirm pop-up for choosing Like reaction? UI nightmare

Does TMC require $8 to hit the like button 1st time without confirmation

Can't edit
Can't also choose anything other than a Like. I want my "funny" back

 

[2daMoon]

Now can we go to the moon?

In the voice of Lurch... "you raaaang?"

 

[Gigapress]

Oh, that sounds like TA, though I might be misunderstanding. I don't believe in TA.

I'm really just amazed still that one simple linear equation actually explains about 75% of TSLA's variation in the last year.

Normally the world is a lot more complicated than that, but apparently TSLA just gets whipped around by the market roller coaster lately.