Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Woo hoo 190.72! A green day for once!

Stop it...this is Debbie downer day....did you not get the memo?

 

[wipster]

I know this isn’t a popular character, but Troy Teslike posted about rumors in China of a massive price cut spreading around. Like 15% (!)

He calculates 5% gross margin after such a thing. Even if not true of course a potentially damaging belief if widely held.

At some point mathematically cutting prices is simply self defeating versus cutting supply and selling to those willing to pay so this feels almost like an absurdity but you know it would be nice to get a ‘not true’ tweet from anyone at Tesla. Now the FTC is apparently crawling all over him on Twitter so maybe he’s tied up with that and helping DojaCat.

Fun times.

I'd just like to sell him a railroad... you know
Norfolk and Waypal...

 

[ToTheStars]

Woo hoo 190.72! A green day for once!

With like 8 million (!) shares traded in the final minute?! @Papafox is this a record?

 

[wipster]

With like 8 million (!) shares traded in the final minute?! @Papafox is this a record?

Maybe Elon's buying!

 

[MikeC]

With like 8 million (!) shares traded in the final minute?! @Papafox is this a record?

Would be tough to beat the 69 million from S&P inclusion day:

"More than 200m shares in Tesla, worth more than $148bn, were traded through the day, including 69m shares in the closing auction at $695."

 

[Artful Dodger]

his TSLA success rate isn't exactly norminal.

Lol, I see what you did there. 'Zat u, Tim?

Cheers!

 

[Skryll]

That's a bearish outlook, which means Elon thinks Tsla is overvalued despite the execution he sees clearly into the future. It also makes him the most bearish out of any bull because he thinks even the 170s are too high.

Since December 2018 - Tesla Has 'Apple-Like Consumer Brand' Potential, Wedbush Says In Bullish Initiation.

So makes sense if his only valuation is on the brand and not the value created by r&d and production

 

[2daMoon]

Lol, I see what you did there. 'Zat u, Tim?

Cheers!

Well, it was in the style of Tim.
But, both of my eyes are the same color.

 

[wipster]

My best guess is many people are holding out for 1/1/23 for their tax credits.
Since GM and TSLA are the only ones not currently participating in the current ev tax credits.

Tesla is the one most being affected by potential holdouts, since GM isn't really making tons of ev's

Only thing that concerns me is potentially fewer cars sold in the 4th quarter. Thank dawg for China and Europe!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Shortzies covered their positions
$$ that was patiently waiting on sidelines for a signal to enter market
Big $$ made enough riding everything all the way down
Someone left the interns in charge
People finally realized that the world is not going to end

Hope this carries into tomorrow

 

[SmokyPeat]

Only thing that concerns me is potentially fewer cars sold in the 4th quarter. Thank dawg for China and Europe!

I wouldn't worry. Demand has yet to be a problem.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Electric Viking on YouTube claiming that Tesla China are aiming at increased volume by batching/speculative/inventory rather than build to order.

I could see this happening if there are known parts/process bottlenecks - or more likely if it helps with the painting or just they found it easier for production line employees to not have to worry about differences.

Another possibility is that this is a dry-run for how Tesla China would produce a cheaper car - full speed, less customisation.

Any indications of this in other factories or markets? Inventory cars might be an indicator (short lead times on M3P in USA?).

I'm not convinced - but possible. I'll be looking for any indications to support this idea.

Sam assumes this is Tesla crushing the competition (and uses Amazon/nappies as an example) - with only BYD making a (small) profit and all others unable to reduce prices, Tesla can sell in huge volumes by reducing prices.

Presumably, component shortages are mostly over, so it could be time to up production, lock down components, batteries, minerals and maybe have enough volume to supply another market soon (Thailand, USA if IRA is amended with the proposed 2025 ish dates as mentioned by Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer -

- timestamped at IRA change proposals).

If it is happening, I'd view it as Tesla just concentrating on volume rather than per-car profit. Greater volume will help with profits anyway. Wasn't there mention of SCALE for Master Plan Part 3?

Spoiler: Image-Some-IRA-Proposals

 

[SmokyPeat]

My guess is that Elon was selling into the strength until 3:00 today. Then the brakes came off.

 

[Gigapress]

I don't understand Giga, how do you calculate the "expected" price for TSLA at any given time? Expected using what metrics and PE?

I meant "expected" based on the linear regression model from the first chart. The idea was to test how well this simple model fits the actual data without extra complexity added in.

The formula is:

TSLA_expected = (S&P 500 - 2423) / 6.14​

 

[Singuy]

Electric Viking on YouTube claiming that Tesla China are aiming at increased volume by batching/speculative/inventory rather than build to order.

I could see this happening if there are known parts/process bottlenecks - or more likely if it helps with the painting or just they found it easier for production line employees to not have to worry about differences.

Another possibility is that this is a dry-run for how Tesla China would produce a cheaper car - full speed, less customisation.

Any indications of this in other factories or markets? Inventory cars might be an indicator (short lead times on M3P in USA?).

I'm not convinced - but possible. I'll be looking for any indications to support this idea.

Sam assumes this is Tesla crushing the competition (and uses Amazon/nappies as an example) - with only BYD making a (small) profit and all others unable to reduce prices, Tesla can sell in huge volumes by reducing prices.

Presumably, component shortages are mostly over, so it could be time to up production, lock down components, batteries, minerals and maybe have enough volume to supply another market soon (Thailand, USA if IRA is amended with the proposed 2025 ish dates as mentioned by Tesla Daily/Rob Maurer -

- timestamped at IRA change proposals).

If it is happening, I'd view it as Tesla just concentrating on volume rather than per-car profit. Greater volume will help with profits anyway. Wasn't there mention of SCALE for Master Plan Part 3?

Spoiler: Image-Some-IRA-Proposals

View attachment 873301

That will be terrible as Tesla doesn't want to crush the EV competition. Also this will play exactly to what the shorts have been predicting for years, that margins are not sustainable once competition enters.

 

[wipster]

I wouldn't worry. Demand has yet to be a problem.

Well I'm sure it won't be come January 1st... just concerned a bit about 4th quarter 2022. Hope this is just because Fremont and Austin are making more and quicker.

 

[mongo]

I know this isn’t a popular character, but Troy Teslike posted about rumors in China of a massive price cut spreading around. Like 15% (!)

He calculates 5% gross margin after such a thing. Even if not true of course a potentially damaging belief if widely held.

At some point mathematically cutting prices is simply self defeating versus cutting supply and selling to those willing to pay so this feels almost like an absurdity but you know it would be nice to get a ‘not true’ tweet from anyone at Tesla. Now the FTC is apparently crawling all over him on Twitter so maybe he’s tied up with that and helping DojaCat.

Fun times.

Huh?
30% gross margin on a vehicle, drop price 15% without changing any other parameters = 15% GM.

If it's a widely held view that 30-15=5, something is definitely damaged.

Edit: real math, it's not 15% GM, it's better since total revenue also decreases.
50k car @ 30% gm = 35k cost, sell for 15% less 50k*85%=42.5k, 7.5k gross profit,
7.5/42.5 = 17.6% GM

 

[elasalle]

Anyone else getting Confirm pop-up for choosing Like reaction? UI nightmare

Does TMC require $8 to hit the like button 1st time without confirmation

 

[FSDtester#1]

Beat the Nasdaq by .04 %... Utter and Sheer Domination!!!

 

[Singuy]

Well I'm sure it won't be come January 1st... just concerned a bit about 4th quarter 2022. Hope this is just because Fremont and Austin are making more and quicker.

Free EAP if you take delivery before Dec 31st. Problem solved.