Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Wednesday was a perfect storm of unexpected Form 4s the night before, FTX unraveling, and CPI fear.

I thinks it’s more likely retail sold in the 170s (in the form of margin calls and options losses) and institutions loaded up back to the 190s, than the other way around.

That's my guess as well. I think we finally saw some cracks in the retail holdings due to 52 week lows, general fears, and politics.

This is where we rally hard, maybe to or even above the previous ATH, before the rate hikes etc start rolling through economic data and we grind down to a new bottom before the Fed eases off the brakes.

This seems to be how it has gone historically

Any examples of that? I'd love to see it, but seems like a long way to go to get TSLA and the market near to ATHs in such a short timeframe.

 

[scaesare]

Hmm. (Apologies for the double reply, but this just occurred to me).


If Shotwell is taking over operations at Starbase does this mean Musk is content with Raptor production? I swear not long ago Musk said that was his biggest priority. I hadn’t really thought much about the whole changing of the guards at Starbase, but if Musk is content with Raptor production at the moment, that’s a pretty monumental task off his plate.

Today they did a static fire with 14 engines and all 33 engines were mounted so possible 33 engine static fire test soon. We might see this SOB fly soon.

View attachment 874619


Starship plus FSD full release were Musks big ticket goals for 2023…. Seems like we’re getting very close to both.

And since that time, we've heard that Raptor2 production is 1 per day on average now.

 

[ZeApelido]

This is where we rally hard, maybe to or even above the previous ATH, before the rate hikes etc start rolling through economic data and we grind down to a new bottom before the Fed eases off the brakes.

This seems to be how it has gone historically

ATH? Can we just rally 20-30% to $250 by end of the year first, pretty please?

 

[Nocturnal]

Hyundai’s Ulsan plant is much bigger, producing 1.53 million vehicles per year pre-pandemic

Hyundai's factory: The biggest in the world | Auto Express

No plant builds more cars a year than Hyundai's remarkable Ulsan facility in South Korea. We visit a true manufacturing phenomenon

www.autoexpress.co.uk

That one is up for debate. Some consider that Hyundai location to be multiple factories co-located. Depends on perspective I suppose but I think it still shows how amazingly productive Shanghai is.

Ulsan, truly, is the car manufacturing facility to top them all - a sprawling mass of five different factories that churn out a vehicle every 10 seconds, with production last year hitting a barely credible 1.53 million.

 

[larmor]

ATH? Can we just rally 20-30% to $250 by end of the year first, pretty please?

I'm sorry that is reserved for companies with increasing cash flow, orders booked out for months, new product lines, and multiple new factories increasing production, and of course increasing margins.

 

[Maarten]

Regarding "The Competition is Coming":
Seen today in Bali: funny little car, the Wuling Air EV.
Could use some design work, but maybe it's just my taste that caused me to swallow a few times.
Very, very cheap town car, around USD 3200.
Competition? Not for Tesla from this, but certainly a good alternative for a lot of smelly combustion cars here.

Spoiler: A few more exterior and interior pics

 

[AndrewZ]

Any examples of that? I'd love to see it, but seems like a long way to go to get TSLA and the market near to ATHs in such a short timeframe.

This would align with previous discussions we had here regarding market behavior relative to periods of interest rate hikes and cutting, and it would align with graphs showing historical S&P performance against those hikes.

Not sure about Tesla specifically though, but it makes sense for the indices/macros

 

[Drax7]

Charlie Munger on cnbc, saying what tesla has accomplished is a minor miracle.
let the shorts fume over that.

 

[Atomsla]

Regarding "The Competition is Coming":
Seen today in Bali: funny little car, the Wuling Air EV.
Could use some design work, but maybe it's just my taste that caused me to swallow a few times.
Very, very cheap town car, around USD 3200.
Competition? Not for Tesla from this, but certainly a good alternative for a lot of smelly combustion cars here.

Its even got A/C!

 

[H Mak]

Charlie Minger on cnbc, saying what tesla has accomplished is a minor miracle.
let the shorts fume over that.

Munger. Minger is something quite different

 

[Drax7]

Non inflationary growth is the ultimate economic environment.
The November monthly PPI coming in at 0.0, and the advance 4th qtr GDP
compiled by the Atlanta fed coming in at 4.0%.

just a straw in the wind, moving in the right direction.

 

[Max Plaid]

Jonas smack-talking TSLA yesterday: Morgan Stanley says Tesla (TSLA) could tag $150 before year end

"In an investor note released on Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said his bullish overall view of Tesla (TSLA) may have to wait on the back burner while his bearish scenario for the stock unfolds. Jonas said $150 seems more likely before the end of the year. TSLA stock ended Monday's session down 2.6% at $190.95. Despite the fact that he himself has a $330 price target on the EV leader, the analyst said CEO Elon Musk's focus on Twitter has greatly affected confidence in his leadership and the brand overall."

Blah blah blah...

 

[scaesare]

I don't see how the amount of liquid electrolyte relates at all to a gel electrolyte or a chemistry change.

"I think they [Tesla] are changing the chemistry on the fly . . . and I think they are within spitting distance of something equivalent to QuantumScape solid state batteries"

Cell chemistry is not his strong suit.

Non-mechanical stuff in general isn't. I remember him gushing over a PCB saying that it was like something you'd only see in ultra secret militarry hardware... my thought was "I guess he's never seen a video card." It probably had a higher component density and better layout than traditional automotive stuff.... but it was pretty tame for anybody who knows electronics.

He's also made a number of wrong suppositions about electrical components and their function.

From a mechanical manufacuring standpoint, he undoubtedly knows his stuff. For batteries and electronics, not so much... it's been good to see him have other folks in the shop lead some teardown discussions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TUESDAY, NOV. 15			Actual	Predict	Previous
8:30 am	Producer price index final demand	Oct.	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%

Stock-market futures and bonds rally as PPI offers new hint of easing inflation | Marketwatch

 

[Congo Line]

Joas smack-talking TSLA yesterday: Morgan Stanley says Tesla (TSLA) could tag $150 before year end

"In an investor note released on Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said his bullish overall view of Tesla (TSLA) may have to wait on the back burner while his bearish scenario for the stock unfolds. Jonas said $150 seems more likely before the end of the year. TSLA stock ended Monday's session down 2.6% at $190.95. Despite the fact that he himself has a $330 price target on the EV leader, the analyst said CEO Elon Musk's focus on Twitter has greatly affected confidence in his leadership and the brand overall."

Blah blah blah...

Obviously bases his TSLA analysis on Chicken Genius' youtube channel

 

[jw934]

Charlie Munger on cnbc, saying what tesla has accomplished is a minor miracle.
let the shorts fume over that.

YouTube Link: (starts at 1:20)

Charlie Munger: What Tesla has done in the car industry is a minor miracle​

 

[MP3Mike]

Can't be. Tesla is now investment grade.

Actually it is only "half" investment grade. My understanding is that most institutions require at least two rating agencies to rate it as investment grade. And Tesla currently has one investment grade and one junk rating.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

ATH? Can we just rally 20-30% to $250 by end of the year first, pretty please?

My kids would definitely like to see $270 so that Santa shows up.

 

[2daMoon]

Though Minger may not linger, Munger tossed a slam-dunker.
(not poetry)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This is where we rally hard, maybe to or even above the previous ATH, before the rate hikes etc start rolling through economic data and we grind down to a new bottom before the Fed eases off the brakes.

This seems to be how it has gone historically

I think the most likely scenario is the 12 month trading channel is maintained until overpowered by Tesla fundamentals or the bear market turns to bull.