Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Regarding "The Competition is Coming":
Seen today in Bali: funny little car, the Wuling Air EV.
Could use some design work, but maybe it's just my taste that caused me to swallow a few times.
Very, very cheap town car, around USD 3200.
Competition? Not for Tesla from this, but certainly a good alternative for a lot of smelly combustion cars here.

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Spoiler: A few more exterior and interior pics

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It's not just the design that could use some work, the structural strength could too. This is what can happen when another, slightly larger EV by Wuling, the Hongguang, is involved in a heavy crash.

The Hongguang has been outselling Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y in China for two years now. It only costs a fraction of a Tesla, but you may pay with your life too. And what does the media focus on? A Tesla crash ofcourse.

 

[larmor]

Joas smack-talking TSLA yesterday: Morgan Stanley says Tesla (TSLA) could tag $150 before year end

"In an investor note released on Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said his bullish overall view of Tesla (TSLA) may have to wait on the back burner while his bearish scenario for the stock unfolds. Jonas said $150 seems more likely before the end of the year. TSLA stock ended Monday's session down 2.6% at $190.95. Despite the fact that he himself has a $330 price target on the EV leader, the analyst said CEO Elon Musk's focus on Twitter has greatly affected confidence in his leadership and the brand overall."

Blah blah blah...

So when elon is all hands on deck for tesla, the market and analysts go crazy and say he is unreliable with over promised timelines and when he is not full time at tesla suddenly tesla is going to suffer. Which is it? Both? I guess algobots have an advanced AI to handle subtleties in both directions.

 

[Todd Burch]

Obviously bases his TSLA analysis on Chicken Genius' youtube channel

As long as Wall Street bases their price target on anything except company performance.

Again, yet another example why Wall Street is a joke.

 

[Unpilot]

AJ is one of a certain breed on Wall Street...like GOJO....can and is wrong most of the time....yet keeps his job and stays a talking head on TV.

People like him should be viewed as one would say a Jerry Springer show. It's all they know how to do.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

AJ is one of a certain breed on Wall Street...like GOJO....can and is wrong most of the time....yet keeps his job and stays a talking head on TV.

People like him should be viewed as one would say a Jerry Springer show. It's all they know how to do.

He just reminds me of a douche bag that thinks he knows everything. Kinda like that one dude in Good Will Hunting at the Harvard bar making it a point to embarrass Ben Affleck when he was trying to talk to Minnie Driver.

 

[Drax7]

Joas smack-talking TSLA yesterday: Morgan Stanley says Tesla (TSLA) could tag $150 before year end

"In an investor note released on Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said his bullish overall view of Tesla (TSLA) may have to wait on the back burner while his bearish scenario for the stock unfolds. Jonas said $150 seems more likely before the end of the year. TSLA stock ended Monday's session down 2.6% at $190.95. Despite the fact that he himself has a $330 price target on the EV leader, the analyst said CEO Elon Musk's focus on Twitter has greatly affected confidence in his leadership and the brand overall."

Blah blah bla

I get a feeling Munger will overcome Jonas in todays
news cycle.

 

[dhanson865]

I fire "quiet quitters". Haven't had many, but they are a contagion and bad for employee morale.

My boss wants me to be a quiet quitter, sent this nastygram threating my job for going above and beyond.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/smhjyr

 

[elasalle]

Charlie Munger on cnbc, saying what tesla has accomplished is a minor miracle.
let the shorts fume over that.

Munger invested in BYD, and last quarter they divested a large portion of their stakes.
So ya he must be surprised by the Tesla Miracle ... not sure why they are waiting to invest in Tesla ... one day Tesla insurance might also eat into Geico profits ...

(+ ego's and honor must be kept aside, when there is $$ to be made, if waiting for dividends ... it might be too late )

 

[bkp_duke]

My boss wants me to be a quiet quitter, sent this nastygram threating my job for going above and beyond.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/smhjyr

Unfortunately, stupid bosses have existed as long as there have been businesses. If he's middle management, he's just afraid of losing his job because he's got a rock-star overachiever under him. If he's that way, he probably shouldn't be in management.

I've fired more than one managers like that too. I hope his boss pays enough attention to see the behavior.

 

[elasalle]

Strong vol is the tesla board buying today, need to wait for Form 4s to confirm .../s
Com on Hiro, Kimbal we can do it ... use tax break as an excuse

+ even a 10B buyback announcement over 2 years, and just a 500K actual/present buyback will let us have some fun play the game with the gamers . Put an "intend to" in the clause, so that Karen doesn't help some poor soul sue you in 2 years

 

[AndrewZ]

Haven't watched the Munger stuff being quoted here today but how is he still going hard at dang near a century old? Talk about life goals

 

[Doit]

,
However, the Tesla fleet using FSD will be substantially safer than the cars currently on the road, not only from the use of FSD, but from just being Teslas, which are the safest cars in the road bar none. So your back of the napkin calculations are seriously flawed my friend.

That was exactly my point, my friend: the "seriously flawed" calculations were based on the assumption that if Tesla had the same safety record as the average.

 

[wipster]

That was exactly my point, my friend: the "seriously flawed" calculations were based on the assumption that if Tesla had the same safety record as the average.

Perhaps, but it didn't read that way. Thanks for the clarification!

 

[SmokyPeat]

C'mon TSLA, back into the 200's, you can do it! Everything on my watchlist is doing great today except for the Lithium stocks. Interesting.

 

[The Accountant]

The PPI (Producer Price Index) is often a leading indicator for the direction of Core CPI (Consumer Price Index).

 

[InDaClub]

I expect there’s epic capping/spoofing going on this morning @viridi?

 

[Gigapress]

Regarding "The Competition is Coming":
Seen today in Bali: funny little car, the Wuling Air EV.
Could use some design work, but maybe it's just my taste that caused me to swallow a few times.
Very, very cheap town car, around USD 3200.
Competition? Not for Tesla from this, but certainly a good alternative for a lot of smelly combustion cars here.

View attachment 874815

Spoiler: A few more exterior and interior pics

View attachment 874816

View attachment 874817


View attachment 874818

2012: “EVs are golf carts and no one wants them”

2022: “Golf carts are the most popular EVs in China. Is Tesla in trouble?”

 

[AndrewZ]

That was exactly my point, my friend: the "seriously flawed" calculations were based on the assumption that if Tesla had the same safety record as the average.

For Level 3+ and especially 4/5 autonomy, the system needs to be vastly safer than the average driver and Elon has talked about this plus talked about how being as safe as the average driver is a pretty low bar. Getting to magnitudes safer than the average driver, that's the challenge.

But enabling true Robotaxi functionality involves the company taking ownership of the dynamic driving task while the system is operating, that means Tesla (or other companies) will own the accidents that occur as the vehicles drive themselves around. So for that to even happen in the first place in a way that the risk is manageable for a company, I don't even know what that looks like right now and it's amplified when thinking about generalized Robotaxis.

 

[Olle]

If we are going into a prolonged recession I would get even more bullish on Tesla. Here is why:

Recession -> fewer people buy new cars -> the car business is especially sensitive to utilization rate -> less profit for legacy OEM -> can't support their negative margin EV manufacturing -> reduced EV volume -> Tesla get's more of the exponentially growing EV market to itself -> pricing power -> higher profit margin for Tesla.

Tesla get's to double dip in the honey pot:
Every one else scaling down -> labor and raw materials get cheaper -> even higher profit margin for Tesla.

One question mark is if EV adoption in absolute volume would be faster than the collapse of the overall car market, to have a net EV growth. Personally I think we have reached the tipping point where then answer to the question is yes.

 

[Nocturnal]

But enabling true Robotaxi functionality involves the company taking ownership of the dynamic driving task while the system is operating, that means Tesla (or other companies) will own the accidents that occur as the vehicles drive themselves around. So for that to even happen in the first place in a way that the risk is manageable for a company, I don't even know what that looks like right now and it's amplified when thinking about generalized Robotaxis.

For Robotaxis it makes sense. Out of the $1 per mile revenue, say 15 cents goes towards insurance.

What is interesting to think about is how it will work for owners driving their own car with FSD. Is selling someone a $15k software package enough up front cash to insure years or possibly decades of driving risk? I suppose comprehensive coverage can be separated out and the owner of the vehicle will have to cover that, so it's just liability we are talking about.

If we assign the value of liability insurance for a Robotaxi as $50 a month, then that could work. Tesla get's 15k cash today and "pays" $600 a year in liability costs. Even if the car is used for 20 years then it's still a net win.

One question mark is if EV adoption in absolute volume would be faster than the collapse of the overall car market, to have a net EV growth. Personally I think we have reached the tipping point where then answer to the question is yes.

"How can I save money on my car without giving up the creature comforts I'm used to?" = get an EV