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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla has been approved to create a “statewide market design pilot” for a virtual power plant (VPP) in Texas. The company will be able to band its Powerwall customers together to deliver grid services in the state and get them compensated for it
 
Welp, that's TWO now on my ignore list. Bye-bye.
Wait, don't forget me! 🤷‍♂️

The root of the matter is simply that medical experiments can be performed until the desired outcome is achieved while other negative results are buried under NDA. My sister did her Master's Thesis on the view of science by the public - all fact based and later went on to her PhD. Couple that with a Father that did mega vitamins in the 60 and rebuilt his retinal nerve damage to the point of being able to drive a car. So I had a bias at birth, but then everything else made sense ever since, especially after he got the threat letter from the AMA.

When I see the FUD and corruption here on EVs, it's quite easy to draw a straight line. Medicine is a thriving business and it should not be - at all. Do question the motives, it's your health. Some medicine is good no doubt, but I also know 3/4 people who died from Chemo which kills White Blood Cells that serve to fight off the condition itself. We don't have all the facts on any of this, unless you were either in the study or in the system.

Here's an example. Would you believe me if I said that every time I flip a penny it comes up heads? It would seem true if I only showed you the times that it did. That's Medical Science, and it's as bad as Big Oil in that way.
 
Perhaps the infections/hospitalizations/deaths will hit relatively quickly, but how quickly do you suppose people will get back to work, even with primary effects on the post-employment elderly?

Post Covid, most people usually feel like superheros (i.e. invincible) and quickly goes back to their 2019 life (or even a little further to make up for time lost). This is assuming you don't get long-Covid, or worse. But the majority won't, so if it does rip through China in one big wave, the effects on the opposite side should be economic growth/activity.
 
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Technically feasible ;)


Unfortunately since Tesla won't publish the disengagement rates, we need to go by what is available through personal logging of many of us. I want to see improvement in this crowd sourced dashboard, if not my personal log.

View attachment 883947

Humans are at about 10,000 miles per accident (similar rate by Waymo). So, we have ways to go .... moreover the rate of improvement is definitely nothing like exponential.

One last thing - we have expected / hoped for accelerated improvement multiple times over the last few years. Even though industry experts have always argued for slow and steady improvement (infact many argue each "9" is more difficult to achieve than the previous one).
Humans have an accident every 10,000 miles? I think it is way lower than that or people would average more than one accident a year. I know I am well below one per 200,000 miles.
 
Another key quote indicates Toyota is admitting the path they put in place was not viable. In other words, the competition still isn't coming.

"The changes, however, might include delays to some of the EV development programmes originally planned for the three-year period, one of the people said."

I don't see delaying competitive EV's out to 2026 and beyond as a viable path to survival. It looks like what happened here is that people within Toyota looked at the EV products in Toyota's pipeline and realized they could not sell them profitably at price points that could compete with Tesla's offerings. They are struggling to figure out how to offer competitive products in the age of electrification. They don't have a clue how they can do it, so they have pushed it out another 3 years. This is not going to end well for them.
For the life of me I don't understand why Toyota hasn't come with a BEV Prius! That would be the quickest and easiest way to enter the EV world, plus hopefully the wheels wouldn't fall off. The Prius is a well respected car and it's progressed over the years to a plugin version. I wouldn't think it would take all that much to convert it to a BEV... take out the engine and put in more batteries.

The first EV I ever experienced was riding in a Prius taxi and I was blown away. That was 15 years ago and it was a big influence on investing in TSLA a few years later. I think bringing out a BEV version would keep Toyota in business... for a few more years at least.

Edit: Has Munro ever done a teardown on a plugin Prius? Would be a great way to see how viable it is to convert it to a BEV...
 
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Pausing also means they can hope for a Republican trifecta in 2024 that will shift US policy and could kill CARB ZEV.
Lots of companies are scrambling for North American manufacturing so they have time.
Also, pausing gives time for CCS infrastructure to continue to expand and improve and fill in Tesla's moat. By 2026 the IRA will mean that there will be lot more high-power infrastructure, time should have weeded out a lot of bad chargers, and Plug & Charge and Autocharge should be widespread, making the CCS experience smoother.

With Tesla's customer service a timebomb, it also might be better to wait until it's finally exploded and there's a bunch of people running away, looking for a decent alternative.

Toyota's current strength is hybrid and PHEV and it doesn't have much competition there. If they can ramp PHEV they can easily meet 2025 EU fleet fuel economy standards, and get a chunk of the US credits they need. If CARB ZEV were killed they'd be in a much better position. but barring that, the growth in EV is also likely to drop the price of ZEV credits.
Agree on the supercharger moat being filled in but I think Electtify America is a good indication that that will take longer than 2 years. Even though there are many stalls out there now they are mostly unreliable or way lower output than advertised. Quantity won’t fill in the moat, quality will. And I think the combination of quality and quantity for charging is years away yet.

I think Teslas decline will be more centred around Elons razor focused efforts to destroy the brand with his new political platform. The problem with originally making the brand popular (partially) by strongly associating it with a likeable guy like Elon is that when he becomes unlikeable he takes the brand down with it. I think we’ll see the share price at double digits soon enough. The board has made it clear it doesn’t care and just lets it’s CEO do whatever it wants. This has got to suck for all those who are heavily invested in Tesla. We are buyers again at 75. Hope it doesn’t get there. 😱
 
That might be more difficult with the new emissions calculation method that goes into effect in 2025 for PHEVs: Europe is going to monitor the consumption of PHEV cars and will tighten its homologation protocol to make it more realistic

And Germany is already planning to end PHEV subsidies...

Tighter regulations for Toyota PHEVs wouldn't be a problem. They're already starting from an efficient and low-emission hybrid platform.
2025 target would be about 80g/km, which is equivalent to about 68mpg.
To give you some idea, the RAV4 Prime is 93mpge EPA, and the current Prius Prime is 133mpge. The EU uses the more generous WLTP.
If the EU tightens up on PHEVs, it'd probably help Toyota as it'd make things more difficult for other manufacturers.
 
Wait, don't forget me! 🤷‍♂️

The root of the matter is simply that medical experiments can be performed until the desired outcome is achieved while other negative results are buried under NDA. My sister did her Master's Thesis on the view of science by the public - all fact based and later went on to her PhD. Couple that with a Father that did mega vitamins in the 60 and rebuilt his retinal nerve damage to the point of being able to drive a car. So I had a bias at birth, but then everything else made sense ever since, especially after he got the threat letter from the AMA.

When I see the FUD and corruption here on EVs, it's quite easy to draw a straight line. Medicine is a thriving business and it should not be - at all. Do question the motives, it's your health. Some medicine is good no doubt, but I also know 3/4 people who died from Chemo which kills White Blood Cells that serve to fight off the condition itself. We don't have all the facts on any of this, unless you were either in the study or in the system.

Here's an example. Would you believe me if I said that every time I flip a penny it comes up heads? It would seem true if I only showed you the times that it did. That's Medical Science, and it's as bad as Big Oil in that way.
Naw, I've read too many issues of 'Skeptical Inquirer' that Mom had lying around over the years to not see where you're coming from. I consider your posts " highly informative" which puts you among the elite here :p
 
Tighter regulations for Toyota PHEVs wouldn't be a problem. They're already starting from an efficient and low-emission hybrid platform.
2025 target would be about 80g/km, which is equivalent to about 68mpg.
To give you some idea, the RAV4 Prime is 93mpge EPA, and the current Prius Prime is 133mpge. The EU uses the more generous WLTP.
If the EU tightens up on PHEVs, it'd probably help Toyota as it'd make things more difficult for other manufacturers.
Real world use will be used. Huge differences. I don't know if anything/payments will be backdated either for manufacturers or consumers (and therefore might result in legal action against manufacturers).

The values shown correspond to emissions of 90 to 105 g of CO₂/km for private cars and 175 to 195 g of CO₂/km for company cars, compared to 37 to 39 g of CO₂/km in the homologation WLTP. Always according to the study, the difference between what is approved and reality is abysmal.

To do this, Europe will use the sensores de consumo (On-Board Fuel Consumption Monitoring Device), integrated into all new vehicles manufactured from January 2021, and which communicate consumption data to Europe anonymously and grouped by model each time the car passes through an official workshop. This will allow the actual consumption of PHEVs to be monitored and used in the calculation of the utility factor used during homologation.