Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

2nd principles ... they bet the farm on hydrogen ... mirai
retooling is a **tch
The Incumbent’s Dilemma: Why disrupting yourself is hard (incumbent dilemma, some random google article)

Toyota is so lost and surprisingly still in denial.

From this:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/business/toyota-bz4x-wheel-fix/index.html

To this, lol apparently there is ZERO buffer in the battery:

Toyota bZ4X fails cold-weather range test | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

 

[bkp_duke]

I’ll respectfully disagree. This is the investment thread. Tesla stock price has little to do with fundamentals or company performance and more to do with news cycles, the antics of its CEO and the conduct of its board. This is the correct thread for this discussion.

Jmho.

Doesn't matter if you agree or disagree. The mods have made repeated ultimatums that Twitter-related stuff MUST go in that thread.

People that have repeatedly violated this have gotten some multi-day time-outs.


Just consider it the "rules of the road", doesn't matter if you like them. If you want to drive on the road, you follow them.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You missed an opportunity while calling this board an “echo chamber“ to also call Tesla investors ”fanboys” while spreading your FUD.

I said an echo chamber in some regards, and I’m definitely a fanboy, and investor.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think there will be pressure down to 100, and once it breaks thru a hundred it will nosedive. No crystal ball here but a few months ago I said it would turn around some where around 155. But we are almost there now and that went faster than I thought. No idea if it will happen but that’s my take. We are completely detached from fundamentals now. Its all on how whackadoodles Elon gets.
Yes I know that doesn’t fly on this board but whatever. That’s the way I see it, and everybody I talk to.

This is a great board with lots of knowledgeable people on many topics. But it is an echo chamber in some regards. And criticizing ELON is a huge no no.

Anyone can criticize Elon all they want here. But it's a lot more credible if that criticism comes from someone who is as effective at changing the world for the better as Elon has proven he is. Elon doesn't just claim to know how to run profitable and successful businesses that change the world, he demonstrates it.- Repeatedly. And over many years. For someone to convince me they know more than Elon about how to best run a business, they better have a resume that is pretty damn impressive.

Because I'm an investor who knows the danger of listening to the wrong people. Investors need to protect against investments that are not successful and the best way to do that is to avoid listening to people who don't know what they are talking about. Elon is not right about every detail, but he has repeatedly proven he knows how to run successful world-changing businesses. And change is difficult. People criticizing him are competing with that. And it's pretty weak to criticize the methods of someone whose success resides in a different stratum than that of the person who thinks they know better.

I'm sure Elon did many things you would have advised against. That's why he's so successful.

 

[StealthP3D]

It sounds like Tesla has broken through the ERCOT red tape. That is a big deal.

That is a very big deal and I have to think Elon had to fight to make this go his way in an industry that is as conservative and good-ol' boy as the Texas power industry. The last thing he wanted was for it to be held up in courts for the next decade. This is one more demonstration that Elon knows how to make big change happen.

 

[PeterJA]

...I think Teslas decline will be more centred around Elons razor focused efforts to destroy the brand with his new political platform.

You'll see how much Elon has destroyed the brand when Tesla reports a record-breaking Q4.

Actually Elon's politics and Twitter mission may have reduced the greatest risk to Tesla stock: the key-man risk. While Elon is busy killing Twitter bots and pissing off some Leftists, Tesla keeps kicking major heinie, which proves that Tesla no longer needs him much to continue innovating, expanding, and crushing competition. So if disaster strikes Elon, it should not strike the stock as much or for long.

So folks gnashing their teeth over Elon's "antics" should be grateful for his inoculation of the stock, especially after it rockets higher next year.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Anyone can criticize Elon all they want here. But it's a lot more credible if that criticism comes from someone who is as effective at changing the world for the better as Elon has proven he is. Elon doesn't just claim to know how to run profitable and successful businesses that change the world, he demonstrates it.- Repeatedly. And over many years. For someone to convince me they know more than Elon about how to best run a business, they better have a resume that is pretty damn impressive.

Because I'm an investor who knows the danger of listening to the wrong people. Investors need to protect against investments that are not successful and the best way to do that is to avoid listening to people who don't know what they are talking about. Elon is not right about every detail, but he has repeatedly proven he knows how to run successful world-changing businesses. And change is difficult. People criticizing him are competing with that. And it's pretty weak to criticize the methods of someone whose success resides in a different stratum than that of the person who thinks they know better.

I'm sure Elon did many things you would have advised against. That's why he's so successful.

This is a smart and well-written way to say that all criticism directed towards Elon will be disregarded because nobody here is Elon.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Remember only Tesla gets Government loans...

GM and LG get $2.5 billion battery loan from the Department of Energy​

OOPS... That was not Tesla.

ARS article so no link, they are mostly a *sugar* publisher, except for SpaceX...

 

[wipster]

Crossposting from another thread (you don't want to go there), but this was my reply to why I won't be buying anything but a Tesla for the foreseeable future:

====================================================================
N=1 data point. Take that for what it is worth.

My wife was in a serious accident last night about 10PM coming back from a house call, in our 2013 Model S. Even back in 2013, safest car on the road, bar none.

Car is totaled after multiple 360-degree spins and hitting two barricades. She got out, and walked away from that accident with zero injuries. The CHP officers on the scene were impressed the car didn't roll and that the occupant was so well protected.

Guess what will be replacing that car?
HINT: Another car also rated the safest car made; and the top 4 safest cars made - are all made by one company, Tesla.


When the rubber hits the road, most of us don't care about the political mumblings of the CEO. Safety matters most. Anything else, that's a compromise. Those that want to make that compromise, have at it.

====================================================================

And 2nd post:

====================================================================
I travel a lot for business. A LOT. I have to rent a lot of cars, I do EVs when that option is available at something the CPA won't balk at.

The driving experience, for EVERY other car on the road, without any exceptions, is inferior to Tesla.

Most can't get their *sugar* straight and the infotainment / OS for the car sucks (*cough* VW I'm looking at you *cough*) or the range sucks, or the charging network blows (seriously, go try to do a multi-state trip, on a timeline, using Electrify America chargers).

Tesla is THE ONLY company that checks all the boxes. Everything else, is a compromise.
====================================================================

Damn @bkp_duke , that sounds like one hell of an accident! I hope your wife is OK, even if she's physically fine, accidents like that tend to stay in your head for awhile, both hers and yours. Best of luck and have fun shopping for her new Tesla!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Where did you get the 75 figure from?

Seeing how this guys' talks about this being the investor forums, I don't think it's asking too much when I say "If you're going to throw out a random price target based on your feelings, do the math to back it up."

TSLA at 75 before Q4's earnings would be TTM PE of 29. It would be a Forward PE of 17.

AFTER Q4's earnings, those numbers will be in the ballpark of TTM PE of in the high teens and Forward PE of 10-11.

AFTER Q1's earnings with a pretty conservative estimates for Q1's earnings, those numbers will be in the ballpark of TTM PE in the low teens and Foward PE of 8-9. If the effects of the IRA are as impactful as many have calculated, you're more likely looking at a TTM PE of 10-12 with a Forward PE of 7-8

 

[lafrisbee]

As an ant I see...
The pro-TSLA humans continue to talk of TSLA "coming next year" year after year. While the pro-Legacy Auto crowd continues to talk about "coming to crush Tesla" next year...
Neither has been correct for the last three years. Both are still NOT THERE.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You'll see how much Elon has destroyed the brand when Tesla reports a record-breaking Q4.

Actually Elon's politics and Twitter mission may have reduced the greatest risk to Tesla stock: the key-man risk. While Elon is busy killing Twitter bots and pissing off some Leftists, Tesla keeps kicking major heinie, which proves that Tesla no longer needs him much to continue innovating, expanding, and crushing competition. So if disaster strikes Elon, it should not strike the stock as much or for long.

So folks gnashing their teeth over Elon's "antics" should be grateful for his inoculation of the stock, especially after it rockets higher next year.

I mostly agree. Especially on present company performance. But that can change and his “antics” as you call them can affect that. Regardless, from an investors point of view which is what this thread is about, his “antics” have hurt the investment.

IMHO.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is a smart and well-written way to say that all criticism directed towards Elon will be disregarded because nobody here is Elon.

No, that was a cheap re-wording of what I wrote. But maybe you can address the idea that the proof someone knows how to run a business is demonstrated by the success of that business. Especially if that business had little chance of succeeding based upon the judgement of other business leaders of the day.

 

[Discoducky]

Humans have an accident every 10,000 miles? I think it is way lower than that or people would average more than one accident a year. I know I am well below one per 200,000 miles.

These include small accidents like wheel curbing. See the Virginia Tech paper.

View attachment 884058

Automated Vehicle Crash Rate Comparison Using Naturalistic Data – Virginia Tech Transportation Institute

Self-driving cars are quickly moving from prototype to everyday reality. During this transition, the question that is first and foremost on the mind of the public and policy makers is whether or not self-driving cars are more prone to crashes. This would seem to be an easy question to answer...

featured.vtti.vt.edu

You can see related discussion here ...

Where are you getting these numbers? That link doesn't have those numbers.

 

[StealthP3D]

As an ant I see...
The pro-TSLA humans continue to talk of TSLA "coming next year" year after year. While the pro-Legacy Auto crowd continues to talk about "coming to crush Tesla" next year...
Neither has been correct for the last three years. Both are still NOT THERE.

Incorrect for the last three years? Let's see...that would be from the end of 2019 to the end of this year. Yes, pro-legacy has been wrong for as long as I can remember. But the pro-Tesla people have been wrong since late 2019?

Have you lost your mind? Remember, watch the performance and execution of the company, not the spastic movements of the share price.

 

[dl003]

I think there will be pressure down to 100, and once it breaks thru a hundred it will nosedive. No crystal ball here but a few months ago I said it would turn around some where around 155. But we are almost there now and that went faster than I thought. No idea if it will happen but that’s my take. We are completely detached from fundamentals now. Its all on how whackadoodles Elon gets.
Yes I know that doesn’t fly on this board but whatever. That’s the way I see it, and everybody I talk to.

This is a great board with lots of knowledgeable people on many topics. But it is an echo chamber in some regards. And criticizing ELON is a huge no no.

It’s all good. Stay healthy all.

TSLA will nosedive after breaking 100? Gasp!!!
What do you call the last 270 points down? A healthy pullback?

 

[TrendTrader007]

i put this fellow on Ignore. last thing i need is listen to somebody stir up more negativity. listening to wrong "investors" can cause lasting damage to portfolio.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Actually Elon's politics and Twitter mission may have reduced the greatest risk to Tesla stock: the key-man risk. While Elon is busy killing Twitter bots and pissing off some Leftists, Tesla keeps kicking major heinie, which proves that Tesla no longer needs him much to continue innovating, expanding, and crushing competition. So if disaster strikes Elon, it should not strike the stock as much or for long.

This seems true. Certainly for me. Doesn't matter what I thought/think of Elons behavior personally. But I used to be certain that if something happened to Elon the stock price would dive. A lot. Fast. So I had already decided if this happened I would sell immediately so I could buy back in a few days/weeks later. Not wait and think about it some more. Immediate sell.

Now I've decided I probably won't. I suspect enough 'investors' would now probably see Elon gone as a positive so the risk for falling stock price is a lot less and it's possible it would be a positive for the stock price at least in the short span.

Again, this is based on how I think 'others' will act. Not personal believes about what Elon does or don't.

Is this certain? Of course not, but the odds have changed.

 

[Skryll]

Remember only Tesla gets Government loans...

GM and LG get $2.5 billion battery loan from the Department of Energy​

OOPS... That was not Tesla.

ARS article so no link, they are mostly a *sugar* publisher, except for SpaceX...

Here comes the lifeline... good for accelerating teslas mission. Ford next?

 

[Thekiwi]

Is the point you are making that with 36% of Beijing is already infected now and the rest of China not far behind....plus all the previously infected population across China, that the majority of the population should soon have their exposure - whether through vaccinations or through contact....and that we can soon move beyond the China's 'Covid-related Tesla production threats' conversations/speculations forever more on this forum? If so, thanks for this post. I have admittedly grown a bit tired of China Covid Death Wave posts from Kiwi and others on the Investors Forum. I seriously cannot imagine any investor in Tesla and their mission selling their TSLA shares because of Covid in China. In fact I don't think I could have ever even made up such a concept in my wildest dreams. "Truth is Stranger than Fiction, Judgy Wudgy" as Curly said to the Judge in The Three Stooges 'Disorder in the Court'. My TSLA-China fascination is now gravitating towards what the next source of Fear & Smear for China production numbers will be. Is it time to start a TMC China/FUD Bingo Card?

I have no idea why you have an issue with that particular post - i mentioned Covid death wave twice, and one of those was in response to your previous post about it - and on both occasions I said it was a POSITIVE for Tesla because it means the end of enforced lockdowns that could disrupt GigaShanghai production.

At no point did anyone mention selling their shares because of Covid in china, so not sure who you are referencing there.