Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Marcus Aurelius’s rule was: Blame yourself—or blame no one. It’s the other side of the idea we were talking about not long ago, that the only place to look for approval is within yourself. The same goes for disapproval and fault-finding. As soon as you try to get it from other people, you’ve compromised your integrity. You’ve handed over your power.

So either don’t blame anyone…or blame yourself. For whatever happens. For everything that happens. Those are the options.”

Also I believe it was Julius Caesar who once said: "Thy neighbor who tries to short term trade the market is an idiot"

 

[Mengy]

7.1

Edit: This is good

Yep, very promising CPI numbers this morning. The market should rally up a good bit today. The question is: will TSLA move up with the market?

 

[nativewolf]

Not a stockholder though family is, old stockbroker family.

My advice here is to not worry too much about the variability in month to month data on car sales as that will not impact the HODL analysis. Don't attack people who monitor such things (too many people making attacks on Troy- it is shocking to me that the mods don't rein that in but will ban people for raising perfectly fine questions). Troy's numbers are just what they are, monthly data. Draw what inferences from it that you feel fit to make.

China is fraught with risks and that's recognized by any sane investor. Macro economic perspective inside china can change overnight at the whim of non market forces. Eyes wide open. You can be bullish that China figures out how to dig out of some very challenging macro economic issues (they appear to have been adroit in the past but that might be due to lack of info). To not expect significant up and down swings is silly. It should have no bearing on your decision to hold any stock much less Tesla or other strong growth stocks.

Watch trends carefully, if the EU implements something like the IRA than that will significantly constrain the value of shanghai as an export hub and leave it with developing countries and Australia/NZ/UK/Norway/Switzerland. That's a longer term risk that's worth monitoring. UK could also do something like IRA but as such a small market that might be tough. Those are the sorts of things that might drive production constraints on more than a Q to Q basis and thus might be worth considering.

If they struggle to ramp Semi 2023 than that's worth considering because it means 4680 is still struggling as they'll suck all the 2170 capacity into semis if they want to do 50k in 2024. That's not a month to month sort of thing but will clip growth.

Month to month variability in sales data from China really has no appreciable bearing on the long term value of Tesla stock. Don't pretend it does and focus instead on the things that do. What's the trend, does anything threaten this trend?

 

[FireMedic]

Whoa. What just happened. Up 6% in pre market?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602659017163145216

 

[TrendTrader007]

i do not want to jinx it so:
tesla is going to $50
you heard it here first

 

[elasalle]

We still have Fed speak tomorrow
Let’s see if they raise by just.5…..

 

[TrendTrader007]

i solemnly recommend:
no poetry
no high fiving
no celebrations
everyone be your solemn , serious, gloomy best
and prepare for much,much lower prices
bears are always right

 

[Discoducky]

The question is: will TSLA move up with the market?

It is a very strong gravity today, so yes. We are currently following SPY.

Next big macro gravity event is in...

 

[BornToFly]

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.

Thanks for blocking me from your Tweets on Twitter Troy. Nice to see you can't tolerate any criticism about your estimates....

 

[BornToFly]

TLDR : you have no control over what Elon does, you have control over what you do.

From the Daily Stoic today…

“The causes of things are complicated, and rarely do they go how we’d like them to go. So it’s easy to point the finger—at other people, at unfair conditions, at the weather, at the advice we got. If it hadn’t been for ___, I’d have won. Why did so-and-so have to get involved like that? It’s all ___’s fault.

And yet, the causes of things are also quite simple, at least according to the Stoics. Because to them, the fault always lies with us. We’re the one who chose to listen to that advice, they’d say. We’re the one who left the outcome up to chance, who didn’t plan for all the contingencies. We’re the one whose expectations set us up to be disappointed.

Marcus Aurelius’s rule was: Blame yourself—or blame no one. It’s the other side of the idea we were talking about not long ago, that the only place to look for approval is within yourself. The same goes for disapproval and fault-finding. As soon as you try to get it from other people, you’ve compromised your integrity. You’ve handed over your power.

So either don’t blame anyone…or blame yourself. For whatever happens. For everything that happens. Those are the options.”

That's like telling a Ukranian it's his fault his house blew up because he didn't sell it before it was hit by a Russian missile.

(Elon is the missile, in case you weren't sure....)

 

[Mengy]

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.

Good thing the Shanghai plant is Tesla's main export hub then!!!!

 

[ThisStockGood]

I call + 8 % today and that is guaranteed. If not I will leave this board and you have to follow Musk and Moneyball yourself. Your loss.

 

[BornToFly]

My advice here is to not worry too much about the variability in month to month data on car sales as that will not impact the HODL analysis. Don't attack people who monitor such things (too many people making attacks on Troy- it is shocking to me that the mods don't rein that in but will ban people for raising perfectly fine questions). Troy's numbers are just what they are, monthly data. Draw what inferences from it that you feel fit to make.

Troy's numbers are NOT monthly data until the end of the quarter. He makes money for making incorrect estimates that are used by the media to short the SP, and in doing so, he is damaging TSLA stockholders. Perhaps he should be held accountable....

For example, he forecasted impossible numbers for today, given three more ships in transit (that he should know about), so there was a guaranteed miss, even though end of month may still be intact.

 

[traxila]

Good thing the Shanghai plant is Tesla's main export hub then!!!!

Troy is trying hard and I give him credit for having the best intentions, but it is exactly this point that bothers me the most. He highlights shortfalls in China demand during COVID lockdowns and a crashing Chinese economy in such a way that bears consider him the go to for demonstrating the collapse of Tesla. You even have his numbers being used as ‘expectations’ to demonstrate misses, and everyone who pays attention knows what a racket expectations are in WS. But, regardless of the week to week or month to month issues, GS is Tesla’s main export hub and was always intended to be. Any shortfalls of local demand have plenty of landing points in other markets and do not mean that Tesla has to shut down production for this reason.

BTW, China should be coming off the depths here. 2023 can be a very nice year for both China and Tesla economically.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Whoa. What just happened. Up 6% in pre market?

Market appreciates the fact that Elon understand NPV.

 

[elasalle]

Good thing the Shanghai plant is Tesla's main export hub then!!!!

.... there are no known ships to EU in mth of Dec, I think that is Troy's point. (the ones in transit are from Nov)

Without exports, ~ 80K? of full production needs to be delivered domestically - and we are tracking just 12*4 = 48K, i.e. 30K difference. Last 2 weeks in China should also be above 12K for final end of quarter drive.

However, Aus expecting like 13 ships and another 4 for NZ this quarter, and not all were @ destination by Dec. So out of 30K, maybe another 10-15K will still be exported ... that is my guess/expectation/hopium (anything can be explained by adding word hopium )

+ lots of ships to AUS, but in Nov deliveries were just like 4K (per some tweet or article) - so AUS needs to do really well in Dec.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Our own @The Accountant here stating the most current production from Shanghai was going to Australia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602639414068482051

Did I somehow miss that there were exports happening in the previous two weeks? If so, that changes everything about Shanghai this quarter

 

[nativewolf]

Troy's numbers are NOT monthly data until the end of the quarter. He makes money for making incorrect estimates that are used by the media to short the SP, and in doing so, he is damaging TSLA stockholders. Perhaps he should be held accountable....

For example, he forecasted impossible numbers for today, given three more ships in transit (that he should know about), so there was a guaranteed miss, even though end of month may still be intact.

It is not his fault if people use his numbers to short. They also use his numbers to bet long. They are numbers. Nothing more, nothing less. If you are hodl then you are betting against the guy shorting and back in 2019/20 the shorts got wiped out. Troy had numbers then too. Same guy, making estimates. Do what you feel best with the numbers. The numbers from China are not what's driven the stock down to a 2 year low but we can't discuss that on the investor thread . Numbers from China over 2 years have been great.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's mainly a US thing, but media feast on anything Elon-related. It's a SEO thing and has been for years. Just look at the headlines where they put "Musk" or "Tesla" just to get clicks, even if it's not the subject.
This is now very handy because Elon feeds the machine himself with his frequent tweets, like Trump used to. Media love that.
And COVID being a global issue, everyone in the world has their own strong opinion, so it's a juicy subject.
I still don't think demand will be greatly affected, for now, but I don't discard the possibility of a substantial dent in the following months either, if he continues at this pace.

PS 30m later: for work I just had to edit a video from a 24/h news channel from the national public broadcasting company of Italy, and for the 2 minutes of the video - which is about an unrelated book - there was a writing on the screen that read:
"White House:«Musk attacks to Fauci are disgusting and unjustifiable»"
View attachment 884388

Like you said, everybody has a strong opinion, which means they’re a dime a dozen, which in American speak means they’re not worth much (and thus shouldn’t be afforded much time, attention or consideration).

 

[StealthP3D]

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.

Let me get this straight, I don't want to misconstrue what you have told us.

So, Tesla is cutting production in Shanghai because demand in China is weak. So weak that investors should be concerned and expectations should be lowered and production can be expected to be 20% less than last month. But now, with over two weeks to go in the quarter, one of which the factory will be shut down, you are predicting a new sales record, blowing the previous record set in Q3 out of the water by a large margin, but that pesky demand problem persists, so despite record sales, they will not be able to achieve record, record, record sales and Tesla will not be able to immediately sell them all so there will be cars remaining in inventory as the quarter draws to a close, which will be a stark testament to the dramatic collapse of demand in China.

Did I get that right? What would us poor TSLA investors ever do without your valuable TSLA guidance? Now I know exactly what to do. Nothing. I feel so relieved. /s