Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

CPI & PPI (month over month) inflation appears to have been tamed.
Economist believe that rate hikes can take a year to work its way through the economy. Even if the Fed was to stop here (which they won't) the %'s would continue to decrease, imo.

 

[Krugerrand]

Our own @The Accountant here stating the most current production from Shanghai was going to Australia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602639414068482051

Did I somehow miss that there were exports happening in the previous two weeks? If so, that changes everything about Shanghai this quarter

Yes. Apparently you did. Perhaps there’s a lesson here for you and a bunch of other people!?!?!?!?

 

[Mengy]

And TSLA immediately smacked down to straight up underperforming the Nasdaq. Was up 5% in pre market literally 15 mins ago

Yep. Predictable behavior, TSLA is being negatively manipulated like it has been for the past half year. Sigh, its like this stock has cancer.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You know $TSLA is manipulated when the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF is up more % on a day when all stocks are flying.

 

[The Accountant]

One thing I still dont understand is the state of Inventory in China. Rob Maurer videos show that at the end of October the Inventory in China was at 16K. November sold over 100K and production was at 88K. So unless I am missing something on December 1st Tesla China would have roughly 4K units to sell. Tesla China is making roughly 20K per week. So at the end of tomorrow end of November plus production would have 44K units. We have insurance number for the 1st partial week of 12K units which if evenly divided per day would be roughly 7000 delivered Dec 1 through Dec 4. Then 13K more through the 11th. So 20K delivered in China so far this month and 24K either in inventory or shipped. They dont just drive out of factory into someones garage.

The 16k of inventory originated in Oct (88k production less 72k deliveries) but there was already inventory entering Oct. So the 16k added to that. I think inventory at the end of Oct was about 30k in total.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

For me, probably a bmw i4. Or maybe yoloing it and going for a taycan or etron-gt

Bjørn Nyland's testing has shown that the i4 currently has some charging issues, so you might want to avoid it if you'll be heading beyond range much.

 

[Todd Burch]

MMDs are common until about 10:00-10:30 am.

Dang this party's full of Negative Nancies.

Have a little faith, this company's kicking a$$. We will win in the end. Again.

One can only pee into the wind for so long--
a bladder may empty,
or a face may get wet.
Either way, the peeing must stop.
-Confucius, 501 B.C.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

MMDs are common until about 10:00-10:30 am.

Dang this party's full of Negative Nancies.

Have a little faith, this company's kicking a$$. We will win in the end. Again.

Yes we will....Yes we will.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hope everyone is prepared for a very frustrating day today……hedge funds not going to give up on TSLA breaking through a new low that easily. TSLA will be capped and underperform today in hopes that either Powell ruins the party or there’s some more FUD they have planned

Somebody give this guy a happy pill.

Yes. Of course. That’s how the crooks work. If you could just give us five bloody seconds of hope and Christmas Spirit, that’d be wonderful. Thanks.

 

[elasalle]

Let me get this straight, I don't want to misconstrue what you have told us.

So, Tesla is cutting production in Shanghai because demand in China is weak. So weak that investors should be concerned and expectations should be lowered and production can be expected to be 20% less than last month. But now, with over two weeks to go in the quarter, one of which the factory will be shut down, you are predicting a new sales record, blowing the previous record set in Q3 out of the water by a large margin, but that pesky demand problem persists, so despite record sales, they will not be able to achieve record, record, record sales and Tesla will not be able to immediately sell them all so there will be cars remaining in inventory as the quarter draws to a close, which will be a stark testament to the dramatic collapse of demand in China.

Did I get that right? What would us poor TSLA investors ever do without your valuable TSLA guidance? Now I know exactly what to do. Nothing. I feel so relieved. /s

you need to sign up for some patron man that's where the good stuff is

 

[nativewolf]

So, I should worry about China demand, because China is full of risks, but if Q4 is a record-breaking quarter, in terms of production and delivery in China, I shouldn't pretend it has any bearing on the long-term value of the stock?

OK, got it! Thanks!

Yes, China has risks - anyone knows it. It's why wealthy Chinese keep assets outside China. Tesla built a big factory there. China also has huge opportunity as the avg wealth increases.

Month to month issues should be ignored period and that has nothing to do with China. It didn't matter when Freemont had issues. It doesn't matter if Shanghai has issues.

So yes I am glad you got it. hodl

 

[SebastienBonny]

Yesterday I checked early trading reaction when CPI came out in November.
This is exactly the same. Smacked down after open to steadily rise afterwards.

 

[Krugerrand]

Effective value of current cash diminishes over time depending on interest rates. Higher interest rates, lower value. More time, lower value.

Alternative reading: you have to speculate to accumulate.
Alternative reading: yes, I've lost a ton of money right now, but I'm investing, and just you wait.
Alternative reading: stop increasing interest rates, please.

So you don’t know either, huh?

Somebody explain it to us both like we’re Bishon Frises.

 

[elasalle]

CNBS on browser having hard time showing SP in green. It first shows SP in red and after some time changes to green

 

[Queeg500]

That's like telling a Ukranian it's his fault his house blew up because he didn't sell it before it was hit by a Russian missile.

(Elon is the missile, in case you weren't sure....)

The Ukrainian cannot stop the missiles.
The Stoic Ukrainian would get out of the house to safety.
The non-Stoic would stay in the house and say "well if the house is bombed it isn't my fault"

 

[The Accountant]

check vedaprime on twitter... he has some new updates but does not say ship #, but we are like ship 7 or 8. Few weeks back he had mentioned it as ship # 6.
rest is on patreon.

IIRC, the driven.io is where I saw article on Nov AUS numbers of 4K

Immacolata arrived in Brisbane on Dec 12 (departed SHG on Nov 30)
Morning Cherry arrived in Melbourne on Dec 11 (departed SHG on Nov 28)
Deliveries like these could cause lower deliveries in local china in first half of December.

 

[MP3Mike]

The 16k of inventory originated in Oct (88k production less 72k deliveries) but there was already inventory entering Oct. So the 16k added to that. I think inventory at the end of Oct was about 30k in total.

We are looking at a current inventory of about 15k according to Rob:

That puts the 2022 YTD inventory up ~12k. (2021 was ~3k, so total inventory should now be about 15k.)

 

[thx1139]

We are looking at a current inventory of about 15k according to Rob:
View attachment 884412

That puts the 2022 YTD inventory up ~12k. (2021 was ~3k, so total inventory should now be about 15k.)

Now being end of day November 30th or end of day December 11th?

Thanks for that I was about to go look for it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So you don’t know either, huh?

Somebody explain it to us both like we’re Bishon Frises. Persian cats.

FIFY.
Also, seems like you're trying to over understand things lately.

 

[Krugerrand]

The Ukrainian cannot stop the missiles.
The Stoic Ukrainian would get out of the house to safety.
The non-Stoic would stay in the house and say "well if the house is bombed it isn't my fault"

Trying to impart philosophical wisdom to some in this group is like trying to teach a Husky to have recall.