Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Our Trojan …

Double entendre if there ever was one.

 

[thesmokingman]

They are probably doing that in anticipation that us HODL'ers will be homeless soon and will be living in our Tesla's after we lose our residences due to the SP degradation

LMAO.

My kid might actually try CP2077. I've replayed it like 5 times after the 1.6 patch.

 

[Max Plaid]

Eh, I'm not really afraid for Tesla as a company. They don't really need the stock anymore, Tesla prints profits every quarter now and I think their biggest challenge in the next year or two will be figuring out what to do with all their cash.

Tesla is doing excellent. TSLA is not. I don't fear for Tesla, but I fear TSLA will be stuck in the penalty box for a longer time than I'd like it to be.

Note that "fear" might not truly be the correct word, but it gets my point across. "Concerned" might be more appropriate.

Yes, this is my fear, not for the company, I think they will be fine, plenty they can do to boost demand where necessary

But right now the stock feels like toxic-waste

 

[elasalle]

Tesla installs Megachargers in Sacramento to support new fleet of PepsiCo Tesla Semi trucks

Tesla delivered their first Semi trucks to PepsiCo at a special event held at Giga Nevada earlier this month. In the lead up to those deliveries PepsiCo confirmed their new Tesla Semi trucks would service [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[gtrplyr1]

^^^^ This. A few weeks ago, I brought these points up with specific car purchases cancelled by people I know, due to Elon's antics. I had all sorts of opposition here. Seems many have come around to agree on the damage that brand damage imparts. Sadly, brand damage lasts for many years. 50 years later, I still think every Corvair I see is going to flip over.

I too have been slammed with lots of disagreement and thumbs down when criticizing Elon. I have noticed that the sentiment on this board is changing and there is a LOT of Elon fatigue. I just had a conversation with my brother, who has lost more than 8 figures on TSLA from his high ... He would always disagree with me about brand image and Elon's nonsense ... he was willing to let Elon be Elon but there was a noticeable change today as "Elon Fatigue" has set in.

He was a pretty hardcore Elon apologist .... seems like that's over now. I'm hoping this signals some kind of shift in sentiment and it somehow gets relayed to Elon ...

Elon has responsibilities to TSLA shareholders ... and remember, not everyone bought in early so there are plenty of them out there who are completely underwater.

 

[Gigapress]

In the meantime, retail investors who are over-leveraged and don’t have time on their side are having to face margin calls, maintenance calls and heavy losses. His biggest supporters are hurting, he’s letting them down.

He specifically said on an earnings call to have a long term investment focus and to sell the stock if you don’t like volatility. That’s official company guidance. Expecting otherwise is unwise and those of us who leveraged knew full well what risk we took on.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'm not there.

They seem to be ignoring Tesla Energy and Tesla AI (Optimus Subprime at the time of that piece being published was just Grimes in a suit dancing as far as they knew).

If you assume no significant Tesla AI profits from hosting or humanoid robots is fair for 2026; they still left out the obvious Solar PV, Powerwall, Megapack, Virtual Power Plant and those should be a noticeable chunk of profits by 2026.

I'd be taking their bear case for robotaxi's and pairing it with a bull case for Tesla Energy to make a more balanced Bull profile. Then lower the robotaxi numbers further to make a new bear case.

Agreed. Energy will begin to shine in the next 3 to 5 years. FSD is no where close to robotaxi ready by 2026. Geesh, that’s only 3 years away. Robotaxi ready FSD is a decade away…at least.

 

[thesmokingman]

^^^^ This. A few weeks ago, I brought these points up with specific car purchases cancelled by people I know, due to Elon's antics. I had all sorts of opposition here. Seems many have come around to agree on the damage that brand damage imparts. Sadly, brand damage lasts for many years. 50 years later, I still think every Corvair I see is going to flip over.

What will you think then in ten years when 90% of the vehicles will be Teslas?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I too have been slammed with lots of disagreement and thumbs down when criticizing Elon. I have noticed that the sentiment on this board is changing and there is a LOT of Elon fatigue. I just had a conversation with my brother, who has lost more than 8 figures on TSLA from his high ... He would always disagree with me about brand image and Elon's nonsense ... he was willing to let Elon be Elon but there was a noticeable change today as "Elon Fatigue" has set in.

He was a pretty hardcore Elon apologist .... seems like that's over now. I'm hoping this signals some kind of shift in sentiment and it somehow gets relayed to Elon ...

Elon has responsibilities to TSLA shareholders ... and remember, not everyone bought in early so there are plenty of them out there who are completely underwater.

I don’t think he (Elon) is paying attention. His comments re macroeconomics today shows how out of touch he is with the damage to the brand that he and the board are causing. If we get into double or single digits he might start to click in. Who knows.

 

[JRP3]

Off topic, but at least Tesla EVs can now be charged with electricity generated from laser fusion
as it can with coal:

Not yet.

 

[nativewolf]

I'd like to see who in this thread actually believes 40-70% of Tesla's 2026 net revenue will be robotaxis + ride-hailing with a human behind the wheel

This analysis is basically saying robotaxis are almost everything and human-driven ride hailing is everything that isn't robotaxis. I didn't even know Tesla was expecting revenue from the vehicles operating as taxis with an owner sitting in the driver's seat.

2026 Bear case is $67billion in net revenue from non-robotaxi taxi operation and $51billion from robotaxis

Ark is insane, they have a model requiring a product that literally is not for sale and is 5 years late and no sign of completion and requires not just new computers but also se nsors. Sadly Waymo is beating Tesla to market. The entire ride share tam argument has not been made. If you said 2036 I would say maybe on fsd and robotaxi. Tam, no idea but don’t show me ark numbers.

I note they are also invested in palantir, a services company in software clothing. What a fraud. Not impressed with ark. I am not looking but they are the type to invest in theranos.

I can see lots of people buying a working fsd license so they don’t have to drive in their own car.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Here’s another conspiracy story. Let me know what you think of it.

A poster named @mach-edriver has arrived to this forum touting the Mach-E, posting a barrage of FUD and vitriol in the Twitter thread, claims to have no investment position in TSLA until today and then mysteriously decides to also start posting FUD in the main thread. I think @mach-edriver is a troll along with several other trolls who have inexplicably appeared on the TMC investment forum in recent months.

Can't comment, fastest ignore button usage in TMC history with this character

 

[thesmokingman]

Here’s another conspiracy story. Let me know what you think of it.

A poster named @mach-edriver has arrived to this forum touting the Mach-E, posting a barrage of FUD and vitriol in the Twitter thread, claims to have no investment position in TSLA until today and then mysteriously decides to also start posting FUD in the main thread. I think @mach-edriver is a troll along with several other trolls who have inexplicably appeared on the TMC investment forum in recent months.

Oh he's also weaponizing down votes which is bannable.

 

[30seconds]

I'm excited about a refreshed Model 3 with castings. Should bring production costs down and volume up with potential to lower prices to increase demand.

The price increases on 3 & Y over last 24 months have been substantial. The Base Model3 was $37,990 and the Y LR was $49,990 in Jan 2021. Now they are $46,990 (+24%) and $65,990 (+32%).

 

[thesmokingman]

I'm excited about a refreshed Model 3 with castings. Should bring production costs down and volume up with potential to lower prices to increase demand.

The price increases on 3 & Y over last 24 months have been substantial. The Base Model3 was $37,990 and the Y LR was $49,990 in Jan 2021. Now they are $46,990 (+24%) and $65,990 (+32%).

Here's to hoping for a M3P to hit that 55K limit?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don’t think he (Elon) is paying attention. His comments re macroeconomics today shows how out of touch he is with the damage to the brand that he and the board are causing. If we get into double or single digits he might start to click in. Who knows.

That's probably because there is no real proof yet of brand destruction. There's a lot of noise from a minority that sure as hell would make you think so.

And if you're going to quote the poll that is being referenced by bears, here's some actual context to it.

Why Tesla Stock Sold Off on Monday | The Motley Fool

Investors may be missing an opportunity in Tesla stock today.

www.fool.com

New flash..... Tesla's brand favorability today is better than it was during the summer and the same as it was 2 years ago. The fact that some people, including some here, actually think Twitter and what Elon does on Twitter will actually destroy Tesla demand is hilarious to me. The fact that people seem to think Tesla's demand will be hurt by Elon's Twitter antics once a $7500 tax credit is in place...a tax credit that will almost exclusively help the portion of the consumer base that is not the elite left is even more hilarious.

Want something to laugh some more? The IRA direct to Tesla credits could allow them to drop 3/Y prices in the US, the consumer would get $7500, Tesla will sell every car they make in the US in 2023...and margins will still be the same. Crazy I know

 

[Singuy]

I'm excited about a refreshed Model 3 with castings. Should bring production costs down and volume up with potential to lower prices to increase demand.

The price increases on 3 & Y over last 24 months have been substantial. The Base Model3 was $37,990 and the Y LR was $49,990 in Jan 2021. Now they are $46,990 (+24%) and $65,990 (+32%).

Remember we had demand fears when Tesla's production was 1/4th of today and 30% cheaper? If correlation = causation, I say Elon should keep trolling and be as political as possible. I don't want to go back to 2019 demand fears. I like today's "demand fears" much more!

 

[WADan]

Hahaha

What I want from Elon is:-

• Master Plan Part 3
• Robotaxi and others (IMO 3-4 vehicles)
• Smaller Cybertruck
• Large van/minivan.
• Bus
• Swappable battery system / mobile fast charging - for farm / earthmoving machinery.
• Home HVAC
• Cheaper more flexible modular Powerwalls.
• Anything else he thinks of in the next 3-4 years.

The correct role for Elon at Tesla is product design, and occasionally troubleshooting when needed.

If he steps back more from day-to-day operations, that may give him more time to focus on design.

While the list of products is still being assembled, Elon is more of an asset than a liability.

IMO the core product designs have a longevity measured in decades. The product evolves over time, but the starting product is the base.

Once the show is over, and the job is done, I think Elon will have a desire to leave the stage.

The only thing I want from Elon right now is STFU!

 

[CHGolferJim]

I've been all in on Tesla for the past few years. Even after eliminating margins and deleveraging options, I put everything back into shares or less volatile options.

However, the past couple days I've sold off a third of my TSLA portfolio without putting it back. I'm planning to sell another third in the near future. It doesn't seem like the best time to sell, but I didn't think selling at 800 was great either when I needed to pay taxes.

I invested in TSLA because of Elon, and ironically am selling because of Elon. Being honest with myself, I would not invest with who Elon has become today. He's pursuing interests that are mostly irrelevant to the mission, and at worst detrimental to TSLA. He's becoming more "outspoken" with expressing his personal opinions on his bully pulpit.

Tesla is executing brilliantly. I can see it doubling or tripling. I can also see it going down to a PE of 30. If that happens, I'll buy again. If TSLA goes up, I'll be happy because I have enough left in my portfolio to make it worthwhile.

I may not be able to buy my own mountain or island, but all I really need is enough. I'll be forever grateful for this forum because it's enabled a lifestyle over the past year that's far beyond anything I could have imagined.

This is what capitulation looks like (no offense intended to mrmage).

 

[Cherry Wine]

I can't help but wonder if Elon is trying to warn about Q4 performance.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602806063606075392