Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[snellenr]

May the gods bless the person who provided this in our hour of need...

 

[ElectricIAC]

It is advice for all humans.

Especially ones holding a little too much sodium chloride.

 

[Christine69420]

This sounds quite legit, especially after news of a dedicated border lane to the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon (where factory location is rumoured) from July: Tesla Now Has an Exclusive Lane at a US-Mexico Border Crossing

Google Translate of the local source with quite detailed info cited in the tweet: Tesla revelará su llegada Nuevo León a principios de 2023

Makes sense especially if parts of IRA only require location in North America (not only US) as was said above in this thread.

EDIT: Also well within reach of Tesla Semi from Giga Austin:

View attachment 885400

Must say I like the sound of a Giga Monterrey in addition to the Phase 2 of Giga Berlin and the potential of the new large Warehouse they are planning to build at Giga Texas. If all three end up producing cars it will be fantastic!

 

[hobbes]

Gary Black on CNBC discussed here earlier, now video online: First catalyst for Tesla is finding a Twitter CEO, says Future Fund's Gary Black

 

[EVDRVN]

Depending on how they’re calculating that it very well could be 4,000 kWh of free supercharging.

That’s worth ~$1,000 assuming $.25 per unit averaged.

I wonder what the time cap is, 1 year? Also in CA most SC's are $.42 after 10AM and some even .$65 at times. Good deal if there is no time limit. Doing a road trip after 10 is expensive. Those second tier rates happened over night, so much for not increasing SC rates.

 

[AudubonB]

OK, a bit harsh language of me. Perhaps better to have said, let Elon pursue the things he wants. He himself has said he doesn't have much to do day to day with Tesla anymore. He has a great team. He has taken in interest in another company. He wants to spend his time turning things around in that company. Let him do what he wants to do. Does Tesla need Elon to be CEO anymore? It is just my opinion, but I think Tesla can survive, even if Elon is no longer CEO. Do I think Tesla could still benefit with his full time attention? Yes.

I am OK with the torrent of disagrees my comments have generated. I respect the different opinions. I want my bearish comments to be wrong. Thankfully, I never purchased TSLA on margin, otherwise I could be screwed. But my timing of trades has been extremely poor. I am still invested in the company because I still believe in the mission of Tesla. I still believe in the long term it will succeed and be financially successful as well. But I did not expect reality the last year or so. It is my opinion that it has not been simply the result of the broader market. It is my opinion that majority of the loss in value in the last year or so has been due to certain actions taken. I am OK with that being disagreed with. Again, I still view the long term results of this company will be positive.

Yesterday I posted the following; I believe it demonstrates why I have to disagree with close to all of your first paragraph. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[TN Mtn Man]

OK, I'll admit it, I'm convinced I'll never understand the market. NASDAQ down 3%, Elon is selling, and today of all days TSLA is up (at least at the moment, hope I don't jinx it). Not complaining, but I don't get it.

 

[SO16]

Wise words…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's very good news.

I keep saying people are severely underestimating Berlin/Austin this quarter both in terms of production and the corresponding rapid gross margin expansion as they hit these key levels of production.

I think Austin will average 2500/week production and Berlin will average 3500/week production for Q4. Multiply that be 12 working week (1 week off for holidays) and you're looking at 72k production for Q4. Given Berlin is doing deliveries at the factory and there's small incentives for factory pickups, I'd say Tesla is trying to delivery as much of that production as possible in Q4.

To me, seems like 450k is still likely and 460k-470k is entirely possible for deliveries for Q4

 

[Motor Mouth]

OK, I'll admit it, I'm convinced I'll never understand the market. NASDAQ down 3%, Elon is selling, and today of all days TSLA is up (at least at the moment, hope I don't jinx it). Not complaining, but I don't get it.

Flight to quality

 

[Ogre]

Has Tesla’s 2022 met our expectations?

I get the impression that some people think Tesla’s poor performance in 2022 is somehow the result of Musk’s behaviors or Musk selling. While it might have had some impact, 2022 was not a year full of good news and rose parades. Neither for Tesla, nor for the macro environment. Look back a year ago this time and think about what we expected.

• 4680 production in Texas was going to be ramping up fast by now. This has not happened. Lots of equipment, very little if any output.
• Model Y production in Texas and Berlin were going to be complete. We’re getting closer… but shy of the 5k/ week expectations at the moment.
• Deliveries were supposed to be up at least 50%. We’re likely falling a bit short of that too. COVID shutdown in April and slower than expected factory ramps more or less skewed this target.
• The 4680 Model Y from Texas was going to be the wonder car with huge range, huge weight savings, and massive cost reductions. Seems like the promised battery chemistry updates didn’t come through and we’re still looking at energy density comparable to 2170s. Since the 4680 production is still struggling, cost savings are questionable at the moment too.
• Cybertruck was supposed to be launched…. Yes, this was still on the table for 2022 a year ago.
• While FSD Beta “Full Release” is out, Robotaxi and it’s promises are still seemingly at least another couple years out, nor does it appear likely FSD is in a state where it’ll drive revenue in a huge way soon.

This is on top of fed increasing rates, literal war, huge energy crisis in Europe, Chinese economic and political instability.

While I still think Tesla is an A+ company, 2022 was clearly a C- sort of year And coming into 2022, we were priced for an A+ year and lets be honest, most of us expected it. If 2023 is a C- sort of year, it’s likely we’re not going to see any big positive swings in the SP regardless of Musk’s “antics” or lack of antics.

People need to own the fact that for Tesla, this hasn’t been an outstanding year even if you remove all of the Musk related news from the picture. We were priced for perfection…. We knew Tesla was priced for perfection. Tesla did fine…. But they were not up to the level of performance we or the investing world expected.

When people claim Musk is responsible for the current state of Tesla stock, they are ignoring dozens of other things which contributed to what has been a less than stellar year for Tesla. I have no idea what the impact of Twitter and Musk’s sales have had on the SP over the past year, but the current rut is largely driven by missed expectations. If Musk was selling shares on the back of the 1.6-1.7m deliveries which most here expected, it would be a non-event. Likewise, if we were eyeballing the Cybertruck order forms and Tesla was taking deliveries. Or even if the 4680 was flying out the door at Texas… just that would be huge.

I’m certainly underwater far more than most here and I’ve lost too much to admit to my wife in short term options. But I’m not nearly as worried about Musk‘s stock sales as I am about these other more fundamental things.

 

[carterm2]

Giga Texas at 3K/M!, Giga Nuevo Leon and Model2!, Texas Tesla Electric!

 

[GOVA]

OK, a bit harsh language of me. Perhaps better to have said, let Elon pursue the things he wants. He himself has said he doesn't have much to do day to day with Tesla anymore. He has a great team. He has taken in interest in another company. He wants to spend his time turning things around in that company. Let him do what he wants to do. Does Tesla need Elon to be CEO anymore? It is just my opinion, but I think Tesla can survive, even if Elon is no longer CEO. Do I think Tesla could still benefit with his full time attention? Yes.

I am OK with the torrent of disagrees my comments have generated. I respect the different opinions. I want my bearish comments to be wrong. Thankfully, I never purchased TSLA on margin, otherwise I could be screwed. But my timing of trades has been extremely poor. I am still invested in the company because I still believe in the mission of Tesla. I still believe in the long term it will succeed and be financially successful as well. But I did not expect reality the last year or so. It is my opinion that it has not been simply the result of the broader market. It is my opinion that majority of the loss in value in the last year or so has been due to certain actions taken. I am OK with that being disagreed with. Again, I still view the long term results of this company will be positive.

Had to disagree.

It just does not work that way. ALL we have in terms of Tesla, this forum included, is due to Elon.
I don't want anybody to tell me how to waste my money and I'll not support anybody sugaring on Elon when he spends his dough. This is even more important now because all that's happened is due to microeconomics (war, covid, fed, fud, aliens)
The guy even twits black on white what is going on, but most don't get the message. It's happended over and over again.

If you want to believe otherwise, fine.

I have believed in Elon and his actions since I saw him for the first time and he opened his mouth. Even if this all goes south to zero, I'll be sad but not hateful toward the dude.

Nobody forced me to buy the Tesla Hoodie I proudly wear. I bought it because I believe in Elon. That's all.

 

[Garlands]

I keep saying people are severely underestimating Berlin/Austin this quarter both in terms of production and the corresponding rapid gross margin expansion as they hit these key levels of production.

I think Austin will average 2500/week production and Berlin will average 3500/week production for Q4. Multiply that be 12 working week (1 week off for holidays) and you're looking at 72k production for Q4. Given Berlin is doing deliveries at the factory and there's small incentives for factory pickups, I'd say Tesla is trying to delivery as much of that production as possible in Q4.

To me, seems like 450k is still likely and 460k-470k is entirely possible for deliveries for Q4

are we sure Berlin is above 3k per week? How come they never tweeted this milestone out yet? Or did i miss it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

are we sure Berlin is above 3k per week? How come they never tweeted this milestone out yet? Or did i miss it?

If you've been following the VIN data, it's clearly telling you they've been at 3500/week for quite a few weeks now.

Follow this account https://twitter.com/StatsTesla

You have to average out the weeks to get a real idea of the run rate, but by doing the data collection, they've probably been averaging 3200-3300/week up until now. The 3rd shift is starting which takes their weekly rate up to 4800/week which will take their averagely rate higher, which is why I think they'll end up the quarter averaging 3500/week.

 

[nativewolf]

Has Tesla’s 2022 met our expectations?

I get the impression that some people think Tesla’s poor performance in 2022 is somehow the result of Musk’s behaviors or Musk selling. While it might have had some impact, 2022 was not a year full of good news and rose parades. Neither for Tesla, nor for the macro environment. Look back a year ago this time and think about what we expected.

• 4680 production in Texas was going to be ramping up fast by now. This has not happened. Lots of equipment, very little if any output.
• Model Y production in Texas and Berlin were going to be complete. We’re getting closer… but shy of the 5k/ week expectations at the moment.
• Deliveries were supposed to be up at least 50%. We’re likely falling a bit short of that too. COVID shutdown in April and slower than expected factory ramps more or less skewed this target.
• The 4680 Model Y from Texas was going to be the wonder car with huge range, huge weight savings, and massive cost reductions. Seems like the promised battery chemistry updates didn’t come through and we’re still looking at energy density comparable to 2170s. Since the 4680 production is still struggling, cost savings are questionable at the moment too.
• Cybertruck was supposed to be launched…. Yes, this was still on the table for 2022 a year ago.
• While FSD Beta “Full Release” is out, Robotaxi and it’s promises are still seemingly at least another couple years out, nor does it appear likely FSD is in a state where it’ll drive revenue in a huge way soon.

This is on top of fed increasing rates, literal war, huge energy crisis in Europe, Chinese economic and political instability.

While I still think Tesla is an A+ company, 2022 was clearly a C- sort of year And coming into 2022, we were priced for an A+ year and lets be honest, most of us expected it. If 2023 is a C- sort of year, it’s likely we’re not going to see any big positive swings in the SP regardless of Musk’s “antics” or lack of antics.

People need to own the fact that for Tesla, this hasn’t been an outstanding year even if you remove all of the Musk related news from the picture. We were priced for perfection…. We knew Tesla was priced for perfection. Tesla did fine…. But they were not up to the level of performance we or the investing world expected.

When people claim Musk is responsible for the current state of Tesla stock, they are ignoring dozens of other things which contributed to what has been a less than stellar year for Tesla. I have no idea what the impact of Twitter and Musk’s sales have had on the SP over the past year, but the current rut is largely driven by missed expectations. If Musk was selling shares on the back of the 1.6-1.7m deliveries which most here expected, it would be a non-event. Likewise, if we were eyeballing the Cybertruck order forms and Tesla was taking deliveries. Or even if the 4680 was flying out the door at Texas… just that would be huge.

I’m certainly underwater far more than most here and I’ve lost too much to admit to my wife in short term options. But I’m not nearly as worried about Musk‘s stock sales as I am about these other more fundamental things.

You are following the right metrics, mostly battery challenges and that is blowing back through everything.

Here is the hopeful part. They are planning on semi production rates for 2024 that requires all 2170 production from Reno. That, I hope, indicates 4680 challenges may be getting resolved.

Though the 4680 is underwhelming there should be manufacturing cost reduction compared to the 2170 packs as they scale.

Not a great year but they have been far too distracted. I note that Waymo is going to apply for full robotaxi operations very soon as in days.

Another challenge is Tesla energy which has lost market share. The utility scale battery market is being flooded with new entrants and old energy companies alike. This was an opportunity 5 years ago but focus and funds were spent on fsd.

 

[cusetownusa]

Giga Texas hits 3K a week!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603478891728887822

For those keeping track, what does that bring the annual run rate for the Model Y too, both US and globally? Curious how close they are to the number of Rav4/Corallas sold per year.

 

[traxila]

Has Tesla’s 2022 met our expectations?

I get the impression that some people think Tesla’s poor performance in 2022 is somehow the result of Musk’s behaviors or Musk selling. While it might have had some impact, 2022 was not a year full of good news and rose parades. Neither for Tesla, nor for the macro environment. Look back a year ago this time and think about what we expected.

• 4680 production in Texas was going to be ramping up fast by now. This has not happened. Lots of equipment, very little if any output.
• Model Y production in Texas and Berlin were going to be complete. We’re getting closer… but shy of the 5k/ week expectations at the moment.
• Deliveries were supposed to be up at least 50%. We’re likely falling a bit short of that too. COVID shutdown in April and slower than expected factory ramps more or less skewed this target.
• The 4680 Model Y from Texas was going to be the wonder car with huge range, huge weight savings, and massive cost reductions. Seems like the promised battery chemistry updates didn’t come through and we’re still looking at energy density comparable to 2170s. Since the 4680 production is still struggling, cost savings are questionable at the moment too.
• Cybertruck was supposed to be launched…. Yes, this was still on the table for 2022 a year ago.
• While FSD Beta “Full Release” is out, Robotaxi and it’s promises are still seemingly at least another couple years out, nor does it appear likely FSD is in a state where it’ll drive revenue in a huge way soon.

This is on top of fed increasing rates, literal war, huge energy crisis in Europe, Chinese economic and political instability.

While I still think Tesla is an A+ company, 2022 was clearly a C- sort of year And coming into 2022, we were priced for an A+ year and lets be honest, most of us expected it. If 2023 is a C- sort of year, it’s likely we’re not going to see any big positive swings in the SP regardless of Musk’s “antics” or lack of antics.

People need to own the fact that for Tesla, this hasn’t been an outstanding year even if you remove all of the Musk related news from the picture. We were priced for perfection…. We knew Tesla was priced for perfection. Tesla did fine…. But they were not up to the level of performance we or the investing world expected.

When people claim Musk is responsible for the current state of Tesla stock, they are ignoring dozens of other things which contributed to what has been a less than stellar year for Tesla. I have no idea what the impact of Twitter and Musk’s sales have had on the SP over the past year, but the current rut is largely driven by missed expectations. If Musk was selling shares on the back of the 1.6-1.7m deliveries which most here expected, it would be a non-event. Likewise, if we were eyeballing the Cybertruck order forms and Tesla was taking deliveries. Or even if the 4680 was flying out the door at Texas… just that would be huge.

I’m certainly underwater far more than most here and I’ve lost too much to admit to my wife in short term options. But I’m not nearly as worried about Musk‘s stock sales as I am about these other more fundamental things.

This is a great post @Ogre.

It is easy to miss the forest in the trees. A lot of advertised milestones were not hit this year, some of them for very good reason (deliveries & production / COVID China Shutdown) others for seeming failure of execution (4680s). It is easy to lose track of this as Tesla is still executing spectacularly, better than any company in the history of the auto industry. We know that EM loves aspirational goals that may be impossible to hit as motivational tools, and it certainly seems that this was at play this year.

2022 is shaping up to be a great year, but short of the spectacular that was expected.

If 2023 picks up the shortfall this year and the Cybertruck launch is seamless, then we could well get priced to that perfection that we enjoyed for a few short months. I am optimistic that Tesla can do this for 2023 and especially 2024.

But, if we muddle along in 2023 and only hit 40% growth with Cybertruck issues, we can expect that stock to muddle along as well, as unfair as this might be in the grand scheme of things as Tesla continues to telegraph that it will dominate the BEV market for years to come regardless.

 

[growler23]

"Tesla Electric”

Reported in Electrek, but this is the source material. More info about the pilot project in Texas (bold mine):

If you’re a Powerwall owner with retail choice in Texas, you can save on your electricity bills. You earn credits toward your bill when you contribute energy stored in your Powerwall to buffer the grid. As a member, you can also monitor the sources of your electricity supply 24/7 in the Tesla app and ensure that any electricity you use from the grid is offset with 100 percent Texas-generated renewable energy. On average, Tesla Electric members have the potential to earn over 50 percent more in credits on their electricity bills compared to similar plans.

Tesla Electric | Tesla

Tesla Electric is a retail electricity provider designed for vehicle and Powerwall owners. Learn more about Tesla Electric, eligibility, benefits and more.

www.tesla.com

This is pretty cool, but it looks (from the Tesla website) that it is only available in Houston and Dallas areas, as they have the appropriate level of choice in their electric providers.

Hoping we manage to allow this in Austin soon - I would love to sell some of my Powerwall solar electrons on a price-demand basis. (I sell my excess energy back now to Austin Energy at a fixed rate, slightly less than retail).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

OK, I'll admit it, I'm convinced I'll never understand the market. NASDAQ down 3%, Elon is selling, and today of all days TSLA is up (at least at the moment, hope I don't jinx it). Not complaining, but I don't get it.

Volume is quite high again today. Will probably end up around 116-120 million shares traded. Not sure what to make it of or if today is just a giant head fake