StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Lithium refinery online within 2 years
That's Elon's aspirational estimate. The self-proclaimed lithium expert who asked the question said 7 years was typical.
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Lithium refinery online within 2 years
This seems to be very much a live question in light of this weeks price cuts. The twitter spaces did not reassure on this point.If customer deposits do not drop...can we please for the love of God stop with the Twitter/Elon demand destruction narrative?
Seems quite material, no?
Btw, the 10% uptick rule (also known as SSR or Short Sale Rule) is effectively meaningless against TSLA since the primary way TSLA is getting shorted is synthetically by buying puts (forcing market makers to sell shares) and not by outright shorting of TSLA shares (which we would easily see).
Of course em is right that deflation is the monster. Renewables and EVs will certainly cause a large amount by themselves by 2030 or so.It's important to add context to what Elon said. His comments about negative profits, or significant difficulties with demand, were in the context of a "2008 style" or "worse than 2008" recession. While I personally have concerns about the course of the fed's action, I struggle to find 2008 to be an appropriate comparison in any way. 2008 was as serious as it was largely because our financial system was on the brink of collapse. Massive deflation followed, lending was non existent etc.
In 2008 many people lost their homes, which massively affected their consumption. Housing was massively oversupplied, so when the bubble popped a massive amount of construction jobs were lost, which is a very important sector of the economy. The effect became self fulfilling. Contrast this with today, while yes the rise in mortgage rates will substantially impact the housing market (and it already has). It seems very unlikely it would end up the same way. Lack of ARMs, much more equity in homes, credit/lending standards better, and most importantly we still have yet to see any uptick in the supply of homes needed as a prerequisite to "crash" the housing market.
In addition there is a definite shortage of labor. Covid saw lots of early retirements (I considered myself in this bucket, but we'll see what TSLA does tomorrow) as well as decreases in immigration that we seem unlikely to make up for. The result of this is an economy in which even with decreased demand at the margin, unemployment seems unlikely to rise in a massive way.
Lastly, while I understand Jerome Powell (or Daddy JPow as I affectionately call him), may not be a friend of many here. I think he made recent comments that reveal the fed's mindset quite clearly. He said they aren't too concerned about doing too much, because they showed in 2020 that they have the tools to juice the markets/economy if need be. And quite frankly, I believe him. The Fed/Government stand much more ready to act than they were in 2008.
Long-term, I think Elon is right, deflation is the problem we face. But I think he is combining his long term view on that topic, with the ways in which 2008/9 shaped him (which he referenced on the twitter spaces) to conclude that a deflationary disaster may be on the horizon. This is the context in which he talks about these very negative financial outcomes.
So while I don't think the outcome will be anywhere near as dire as Elon thinks, Tesla as a company will be better for it, as I am sure he will double down on ruthless efficiency.
Elon Musk Tesla Investor Twitter Space SUPERCUT | Duration: 25:22 Orig was 1:08 hrs (posted 4 hrs ago)
If customer deposits do not drop...can we please for the love of God stop with the Twitter/Elon demand destruction narrative?
Tesla is reaping the margin on trade ins, since there is no dealership network. Then they can enable for features via software. E.g. Sell CPO, but sweeter, with fsd included. In essence, they can get multiple margin events, that in legacy are the reason why we love root canals more than visiting dealerships. You don't even need fsd to make this model profitableIt makes sense to keep production and sales up (even at a loss) during a recession.
Once FSD gets solved, that’s a lot of vehicles already in customer’s hands that could add to new potential profits.
When I stumble in my conviction of either Tesla or TSLA, a good old chat session with the man allays all my fears. HODLing through this pain best I can.
I didn’t see this posted and for those who don’t want to read through the raw numbers and do the calculations, the margin is 60%, according to the Twitter poster JamesCat and confirmed by the author of the tweet that @heltok posted. Wowsers.
Yeah, and new factories in Germany take 5 years minimum, and that's just to get the bat permits... we're talking "Tesla Time" here don't forget!That's Elon's aspirational estimate. The self-proclaimed lithium expert who asked the question said 7 years was typical.
Yeah, you could be right... the part about giving preference to volumes over margins was new, but that's probably not "material"Much of it was material information but I'm racking my brain to come up with something Elon said that has not been said before (new material information is what must be avoided) and I'm drawing a blank. I even think the two years for the lithium refinery sounded familiar (but not sure on that).
I suspect there's quite a few employees or even executives at Tesla that keep eyes on this thread.Tesla gives owners a free 30-day trial of Enhanced Autopilot for the holidays
Tesla owners are starting to receive messages on their cars offering a free 30-day trial of Enhanced Autopilot, with the...electrek.co
I sometimes think Elon reads this thread and forwards good remarks to his executives
Destroy hundreds of billion in a few months and people’s pay attentionIt’s just a amazing that Elon can do twitter spaces spontaneously and have thousands listen in. Quite frankly that was more fun to listen to than the earnings call.
True, but when you manage spacex, tesla, the boring company and neuralink, you have information on order flow, average selling prices, and commodity prices across multiple industries and almost every country.I don't think Elon has any kind of track record that shows him as an expert on macro economics.