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What exactly did Elon do this quarter that shows objectively he is "sleeping at the wheel" -Dan Ive? I still see cost cutting, record production, record deliveries, and record profits.
The whole idea of a bear case for me is that it is ugly and pessimistic and should surprise to the upside.I’m going to disagree because the 1.9m is only very slightly above what we are expecting in Q4 this year on annualized basis.
Car sales don’t drop to zero in a recession. Not even luxury cars. Because EVs are still only a single digit percentage of sales in most markets there is still plenty of room to grow absolute volumes. Especially with the margins that Tesla has.
Plus I can’t follow how this forecasts factors in the IRA. If ave selling price to Tesla is under $40k then the consumer is getting a model Y for $33k? If so the demand in the US alone will be astronomical.
Took them over a year to make the first 1M cells. Ready for prime time!
This is not a fight worth picking up and fighting for. Just change the damn name and move on. Who cares, at this time everyone one knows TeslaPilot and Tesla ASD (Assisted SD) is the same as Autopilot and Tesla FSD.the text of the law doesn't actually mention specifically banning the words Full Self Driving, just has to mislead a "reasonable person: Wonder how "reasonable" is defined in california
So could inventory reduction be related… Highlander….Took them over a year to make the first 1M cells. Ready for prime time!
Ever since the IRA was announced, people here have speculated some kind of demand cliff before Jan 1st. Many here thought a massive selling to fleet would damper the affect. Not one person said at the time it's Elon's tweet that will cause a demand cliff. So again, you are using correlation to make your argument.Absolutely. And it’s been a way more than a “few things on Twitter”. And the quantity and content he’s been posting has been markedly different in the last 6 months.
Demand has been reduced in the last month in the United States. It’s why they reduced prices substantially. That is a fact. Certainly some of it is tax credit related and some of it is economic slow down and interest rates. That doesn’t preclude that there is a completely unnecessary and irresponsible contribution from Elon’s behavior. We need to have a sense of how much.
Maybe. But based on the collapse of inventory levels after the discount this week tells me people want the cars but are price sensitive. In the end it makes no sense to make your purchases based on CEO behavior unless truly extreme, which no, EM does not qualify unless you want to believe the endless hysterical FUD articles.
Good and welcome news.
Your argument is no more correlation than mine. And while correlation doesn’t prove causation, it is a first and necessary step and does not disprove causation.Ever since the IRA was announced, people here have speculated some kind of demand cliff before Jan 1st. Many here thought a massive selling to fleet would damper the affect. Not one person said at the time it's Elon's tweet that will cause a demand cliff. So again, you are using correlation to make your argument.
Or maybe not...time will tell. EM think we could have a bone crusher of a recession.
It is quite difficult to get everything in the first try with uncertainty abounding. The model is a great starting point and a super straw man to refer to in the coming months. ThanksSince I was quoted I’ll respond. It should be noted there were a few errors in that first pass at estimating the law’s impact.
1) It’s more likely than not that Tesla won’t produce 40 GWh of storage next year. If you’re using my model as a starting point for short term estimates, especially if you think it’s likely Republicans will take over both Congress and the Presidency in 2024 and eliminate the subsidies in 2025, then you’ll probably want to revise those estimates down.
2) I did not account for Model Y initially being the only eligible model due to S/X/3 being excluded due to MSRP limits and the LFP cells being imported from China. The impact of the $7500 credit should therefore be cut approximately in half in the early years compared to my original estimate. Nevertheless I would still assume Tesla will eventually reduce prices and onshore battery production for 3 RWD to gain eligibility and also save costs and environmental damage of long-distance shipping.
3) The lower right corner of the table mistakenly shows a sum of sums for $2,200B total subsidy. $670B was actually the total estimate.
4) The initial estimates were way too conservative about Semi ramp. I didn’t have Tesla making 50k per year until 2030. Since then we’ve gotten guidance for achieving that rate around 2024.
5) Compounding the initial poor guess about Semi ramp is that I didn’t realize the Commercial Clean Vehicles credit would add as much as $40k extra per truck in addition to the $45/kWh for batteries. This approximately doubles the subsidy per truck.
Other notes:
The estimate is mainly a function of the estimates of Tesla’s growth and how much they make when at serious scale after like 2027, and this is inherently very uncertain. I just hypothetically showed what would happen if growth is roughly in line with Tesla’s public goals and if Tesla biases for growing faster here in the United States than elsewhere to capture these benefits that are, as far as I’m aware, uniquely huge compared to other primary EV and battery markets. No matter how I look at it, these subsidies are by themselves worth about as much as Tesla’s current market cap if Tesla can grow production remotely as fast as planned.
This did not encapsulate estimates of the benefits accruing to solar, mining and refining of critical minerals, charging infrastructure, because these are minor in comparison.
Overall, it remains true that the biggest single questions are how fast Tesla will scale in the USA and how long this law will last as-is, especially with most of the expected benefit to Tesla coming 5+ years from now when they’re producing at drastically higher scale than today.