The reduction seems inline, actually better than expected. Remember the demand cliff Jan 1 2019 when tax credit disappeared and Tesla had to push sales by reducing prices(way below today's prices) by 2k AND production was 1/4th of today? Remember all the Musk's political tweet Jan of 2019?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They mis-spoke. That is enough for roughly 500-700 Cybertrucks… Need an order of magnitude increase from here!
Yep I didn’t know if to celebrate or cry but it is what it is right now. If they want 50k semi run rate in 2024 they need to increase 4680 by an order of magnitude by then as the semi will consume all of Reno.
The first part of an S curve is flat.
The second is a mild ramp.
Then it goes vertical.
Edit: I’m unfamiliar with this person but their chart seems to have forcasted well:
Last edited:
Semi uses 2170...not 4680.
I think that this might just be Fremont 4680 production.
They are stockpiling 4680 packs at Austin, my guess is that they will eventually switch to 4680 Model Ys once Austin is ramped and the cathode plant is complete.
They are expanding Fremont 4680 production with a new building 4X the size of the old building. I expect the existing line to remain, but new lines to be added.
One day all of the angst about 4680 production will seem just as foolish as the angst about Chinese demand.
If the cathode plant is complete and Austin 4680 production is minimal then thst would be a bad sign. We will know for sure by June 2023.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Ahe -- Bankrupt != out of business.
Legacy auto to varying degrees is at risk of bankruptcy. However once shareholders are wiped out, pension obligations are shuffled off to somebody else, and the financials are otherwise improved by ditching liabilities in bankruptcy court, then there is still a big enough employer with enough assets to continue operating once new investors are found. The new investor might be the government if private parties aren't ready to capitalize the residue, but somebody will.
That sounds like a lot at first look. But that’s just 10,000 cars a week/half a million a year. Maybe I’m foolish but I was expecting 2-3x that by the end of 2023 no?
I guess 2-3x that is a difference of 20x-30x vs 10x so even if it’s only 10 mill a week be years end doubling or tripling from there wouldn’t be a huge leap
Berlin isn't making/ using 4680s yet.
Austin can build nonstructural 2170 Ys.
As long as Tesla has sufficient supply of cells, it's all good.
Plus, once IRA hits in 2023, Tesla gets $35/kWh on its cells and $10 on modules, which could be a reason to temper production now.
Second picture's column location F13 maps to Austin.
This is at least partly correct, but I think at this point EV demand is established and increasing. More and more people want EVs, it’s just a matter of affording them.
The high oil prices just makes demand more price inelastic. When oil prices are very high, the premium they are willing to pay is much higher than when oil prices are low. They still want EVs, but it’s much harder to justify.
But the IRA rebates should offset this significantly. Model 3 base price is effectively lowering by $3,750. Model Y by $7,500 (or more if they re-introduce the Model Y AWD or an SR model).
Nope. They said cars, not Cybertrucks.
Last edited:
If, as you claim, we don't know.. why keep posting about it?
It is rare for this kind of picture to be about multiple factories, it is normally production at a single factory.
Nope. They said cars, not cybertrucks.
You sir are 100% correct, but have 100% missed my point.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Are you saying it does mean that is neither here nor there?
Pricing is, by far, the most fundamental thing that affects demand. Consumers look at what they can get for their hard-earned money so the price overrides other factors by a large margin. It's well understood in the auto industry how sensitive sales are to price. The same cannot be said about what opinions the CEO who runs the car company has - most people don't care what other people think, especially when it comes to getting the best car for their money.
I was surprised to see Tesla follow up the $3750 discount with another $3750 discount but look at the dramatic effect it had! I chalk this up to the fact that Elon knew the inventory levels were not nearly as large as many media sources were implying and that it wouldn't cost much to make a point (by selling out within a few days of the additional $3750 discount). And I think it worked and was a smart move that cost very little in the bigger picture and it finishes off the year with Tesla in short supply.
To fantasize that if only Elon had been a good little boy, like most other corporate CEOs, that Tesla would have finished off the year with the usual minimal end of year inventory, even in the face of the looming 2023 tax incentives, rising auto loan rates, and falling stock market values, is a fantasy too far for this investor to even dream of, even on a Christmas morning.
For the purposes of the IRA, wouldn't this put them at ~760Mwh of batteries a month right now? Seems like 4680 is hitting its steep part of the curve right as the US Gov is going to start handing them checks. Bodes well for Austin if it's the 2.0 version.
I do wonder if they are going to start shipping a lower range/less costly Model Y out of Austin using 4680, hopefully a single motor derivative. Otherwise they are going to be swimming in batteries.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The 4680 data seems to indicate doubling cell production every 3-months.
If so,
1k cars equivalent per week end Dec-22 (vs Austin+Berlint usage of approx 6k/week), i.e. 17% supply
2k end Mar-23 (vs A+B usage of approx 15k), i.e. 13% supply
4k end Jun-23 (vs A+B usage of approx 24k), i.e. 17% supply
8k end Sep-23 (vs A+B usage of approx 39k), i.e. 20% supply
16k end Dec-23 (vs A+B usage of approx 48k) with this excluding any CT usage, i.e. 33% supply
Naturally this is two exponentials in a parallel race !
It is of course a much better position to be in than an automaker with no internal supply.
(edited to replace Fremont with Berlin, my oops)
Sure...
But this is about cell production which is occurring at more than one place.
This doesn't look like Kato (and why have two pics of the same place?)
Yes I think that you are right, I should have paid more attention to the second photo.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
