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By the way, it is stonkingly obvious that most of the legacy-ICE manufacturers will not survive the transition without merging with each other to yield some sort of vestigial brand relic(s), but that really oughtn't to need saying
The legacy-ICE manufactures will get bought by the Chinese for their brand name. It has already happened for Volvo and MG. That’s under the assumption that the Chinese brands will think they need that brand recognition. If the Chinese brands think their own branding gets strong enough (like what happened with the Japanese brands), there’s no hope for any survival for most of the legacy-ICE manufacturers.
 
I've previously posted a forecast up that takes Tesla at their word of 20m by 2030, here it is again.

An observation was that I cannot see a way for Tesla to reach 20m/year by 2030 and have them not go on to reach 30m/year in 2035. This is to do with consideration of ramp rates in the S-curve of the late 2020s - basically there is no way that they could have sufficient momentum and speed to reach 20m and then stop instantly. Alternatively if one plots a path to only reach 20m/year then it isn't attainable by 2030 and would only come about by 2035.

In this forecast I take the view that Tesla (or someone) does achieve some amount of utility from autonomy, and that either that or other factors causes the overall market size to reduce in the long term to be about 60m/year. However there is an effect that occurs prior to that which is that during the transition the market never quite returns to previous highs as buyers are nervous about big ticket purchases of either the old ICE technology or the new BEV technology. I think we can already see that in the data, as well as the obvious Covid effect.

Clearly if one manufacturer ends up with 50% market share then other other manufacturers are in an interesting position. This is not the first time this has occurred in history in automotive; and does happen in other industries. We discussed these issues in another thread, I'm sure someone can point it out.

Whether this forecast is accurate is a different matter, but I've not seen anyone else do anything similar in the public domain which is why I did it.

EDIT : By the way, it is stonkingly obvious that most of the legacy-ICE manufacturers will not survive the transition without merging with each other to yield some sort of vestigial brand relic(s), but that really oughtn't to need saying.

View attachment 898833
Love that “brand relic”! 😎
 
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Hey, so TSLA is up about 31% this year. So far.

al-pacino-getting-warmed-up.gif
 
Warning CNBS story about movers today. Noted that Tesla is shockingly missing. But they scream when Tesla is down. They are crap.


CNBS is a captive of big money and an enemy of the small investor and Tesla.

Note they may update later to "appear" more balanced.

Legacy auto gives them lots of advertising revenue, so of course they have a bias against Tesla.

In the end, this will be their undoing. :cool:
 
We may be at an inflection point where some of those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if TSLA rising is a "sure thing" are wandering onto the field of play.

Naturally, others on the sidelines will continue to wait until an ATH is reached before feeling confident enough to buy. 🤷‍♂️

I hope to continue to enjoy the steady inflow of sideliners that fall between those two ends of the spectrum. :cool:
 
Both Toyota and VW reached about 10 million car sales per year. That might be the
upper limit in the car mkt. 10 million might require 10 giga factories, we are at 4 now.


Of the 3 that Tesla actually built, 1 is already at a run rate above the 1 million per factory you suggest and continuing to scale up and expand, and Austin an even larger site that'll be expected to scale north of 1 million with JUST Y and CT, not to mention whatever else they'll build there.

Berlin is smaller, but still expects to go north of 1M over time....and it's reasonable to expect future GFs are more on Shanghai/Austin scales than Berlin.
 
Model S/X “sold out” for Q1 in Europe:
TBH: “sold out” means “if you order one now it will be on a boat that arrives in Q2”
There seems to be a lot of Model 3/Y inventory building across Europe if EV-CPO is any indicator, which feels surprising considering the recent price cuts

EV-CPO Europe has over 800 New Model 3 listings right now, almost 1,000 Model Y, and zero Model S/X.
 
Has anyone done any math on the market share equation and what may happen if other companies go out of business? Some smart folks I frequently debate TSLA with point to the 2030 number goal (20m cars/year) and believe there's zero chance TSLA will be selling 1 out of every 3 cars. Given there are about 14 major global brands right now, I assume this doesn't happen unless some of these companies go out of business. Even if they sell 1 in 10 cars, that's about 6-7 million a year.

I may start looking at some of these other companies and their cash/growth/etc trends to see if this could positively impact Tesla longer-term, or if this is just a blip in many of them given COVID, supply chain issues and late adoption penalties. More than anything, I was curious if anyone else has started looking at this from a numbers perspective.

I don't understand your question, whether or not anyone has started looking at the 20 million cars by 2030 from a numbers perspective. That's the ONLY way I have ever looked at that goal, from a numbers perspective. And I think it a realistic and achievable goal. Whether Tesla achieves it or not is up to Tesla, no one else.

Elon is the one who made the goal, no doubt with consultation of others within the company who understood the challenges and opportunities. No doubt it's a monstrous goal but I think Tesla is very likely to achieve it, particularly if you give them a little wiggle room in terms of one or two years or a couple million in production. You see, Elon doesn't make such well-defined goals without considering how he will do it. Because, yes, that's an ambitious share of the auto market. But his plan makes sense. Elon realized, in order to have the least chance of failure, he needed to be the best manufacturer of autos. That's why he is so focused on operational efficiency and designing the cars to bring the best value to consumers.

Unfortunately, most people are lazy thinkers because they assume things they shouldn't assume. One of the most popular; that it costs a certain amount of money, plus or minus 5%, to make a car of a certain spec. Elon is constantly challenging every aspect of that assumption and proving it wrong. From the design and engineering of the cars they build to the way they are built and delivered. Elon wants to use smarter ways of doing everything to lower the price to the absolute minimum. He knows the theoretical floor is the cost of the raw materials. So he strives to create the same functionality with less material by using that material smarter. That's what's behind the use of gigacasting. It's also what's behind the constant effort to make the motors and aero more efficient. Because that requires less batteries which makes the car lighter and requires less batteries again. He even works on making the cost of the raw materials cost less.

I won't go into every way Elon and his teams are focused on making cars cost less because it covers every conceivable aspect of the process from reducing organizational/management deadweight, right down to the advertising and delivery. The combined efficiencies are headed towards being able to make and deliver the cars for half the cost of competitors. At that point, it's not a question of whether you can get 1/3 of the market, it's a given. Probably a lot more than a third of the market. A better car for less money. That's good for car buyers, new and used, and it's good for the economy and a car that costs less to build has a lower environmental impact. Even advertising dollars have a carbon footprint as does keeping acres of new cars in the sun waiting to find buyers. And Tesla's competition is really good at both of those things. Delivering real value to buyers? Not so much. That's why they are shrinking like Shrinky Dinks, and Tesla is growing like a wildfire in a dry pine forest. I expect that trend to continue because new car buyers like to get real value for their money and the competition is totally unequipped to deliver that value.

In my entire life, I have never witnessed a company perform at such an exceptional level. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla take over 50% of the market before 2036. Both Ford and GM achieved that at different points in history. This is what tends to happen when you think without artificial limitations.
 
To that end, could a warning message be added to this thread at the top to not post about banned topics and possibly guide folks to the proper threads please? (maybe there is a better idea?)

In all my years on this forum, it has become very difficult to consume this thread as of late (aka signal/noise).

Mods do not have the power to make such changes to the website. But in this case anyone who visits this thread regularly will be well aware of the Twitter policy.

crazy side affect of deleting/moving a lot of messages is that when I went to the "next page" I skipped how ever many messages you moved/deleted. If discoducky hadn't quoted this message I never would have seen it.

If you don't see someone quoting it you might have to quote yourself or repost it after a page passes just to be sure others don't miss it.

That’s an unfortunate side-effect of the moderating tools we have. It is problematic though that when a post gets deleted or moved there are still other people writing a reply to a post that no longer exists in this thread. The situation is far from ideal.
 
Today has been a good day in the market, I can't help but wonder if this rise is trying to suck retail into calls going into earnings...where no matter what the stock will claw back some gains. Then when the dust settles Monday next week institutions will start their buying. Or I am completely wrong and the rocket ship leaves the base to 196+