I've previously posted a forecast up that takes Tesla at their word of 20m by 2030, here it is again.
An observation was that I cannot see a way for Tesla to reach 20m/year by 2030 and have them
not go on to reach 30m/year in 2035. This is to do with consideration of ramp rates in the S-curve of the late 2020s - basically there is no way that they could have sufficient momentum and speed to reach 20m and then stop instantly. Alternatively if one plots a path to only reach 20m/year then it isn't attainable by 2030 and would only come about by 2035.
In this forecast I take the view that Tesla (or someone) does achieve some amount of utility from autonomy, and that either that or other factors causes the overall market size to reduce in the long term to be about 60m/year. However there is an effect that occurs prior to that which is that during the transition the market never quite returns to previous highs as buyers are nervous about big ticket purchases of either the old ICE technology or the new BEV technology. I think we can already see that in the data, as well as the obvious Covid effect.
Clearly if one manufacturer ends up with 50% market share then other other manufacturers are in an interesting position. This is not the first time this has occurred in history in automotive; and does happen in other industries. We discussed these issues in another thread, I'm sure someone can point it out.
Whether this forecast is accurate is a different matter, but I've not seen anyone else do anything similar in the public domain which is why I did it.
EDIT : By the way, it is stonkingly obvious that most of the legacy-ICE manufacturers will not survive the transition without merging with each other to yield some sort of vestigial brand relic(s), but that really oughtn't to need saying.
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