Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

I hope this isn't a buy the rumor, sell the news thing going into the earnings call

 

[SO16]

I’d be more impressed with TSLA today if LCID and RIVN wasn’t up as much as they are.

 

[Ogre]

Those smart folks should start by researching how many cars are actually sold before having a strong opinion about this. 20M in 2030 would be closer to 1 in 4 cars sold being Teslas.

Pre-pandemic, the number of cars sold globally was over 70M/yr and was trending towards 80M/yr. By the 2030s, if nothing substantially changes then we'll be looking at a global TAM of 80-100M/yr, largely dependent on the rate of economic development and car purchasing in middle-income countries with large populations, like China, India, Mexico and Brazil.

Total number of cars sold per year is a function of the number of vehicles on the road which are functioning well.

If you have vehicles which are far more reliable and last longer, how long does it take for those vehicles to forestall future vehicle sales? How many cars get scrapped because the cost to fix the engine is higher than the value of the vehicle? That is almost certain to never happen with a Tesla. If the battery fails, absolutely, but most batteries just get less and less capacity which means the car is suitable for fewer and fewer tasks.

A 20 year old Tesla with a 150 mile battery life will still be a fantastic car for a college kid though. A 20 year old ICE vehicle is a lot of maintenance and requires either spending money on a mechanic regularly or possessing a particular skill set. So with that in mind, by 2030 there will be 20-30 million Teslas sold, how many of those will still be on the road? Won’t those push the need to purchase a new vehicle down the road by a few more years?


I also have a great skepticism that ICE vehicles will be sold side-by side with EVs for another decade. I think that’s another post though.


My very long winded point here is that perhaps that 70m+ vehicles per year number is going to start declining even without robotaxi. Obviously if you add Robotaxi to the mix, it’s going to decline even faster.

So perhaps Tesla selling 20m vehicles per year is 1 in 3 vehicles sold. Or even 2 in 5.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Close - it was actually $370. Tim said he would close his short position on TSLA if stock got to $370 which is $25 split adjusted.
I saved this pic to remind me that MSM analysts didn't understand Tesla . . .still don't . . .and may never.

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The best clip was when Melissa Lee asked him with a smirk on her face "So are you still short?" and he responded with "What's that? I couldn't hear you"

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’d be more impressed with TSLA today if LCID and RIVN wasn’t up as much as they are.

The crowd here on TMC has gotten tougher and tougher since last year...I blame Elon!

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
MrBeast Who will be the new TWTR CEO?
Elon & Twitter
Magic Dock CCS Adapter for North America
Near-future quarterly financial projections - pls don't clutter
Inconel fuses anyone? Tesla Semi
Electricity used to create gas (petrol)? Climate change
The demise of the OEMs
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot He/She/They has a Twitter account

 

[Cobbler]

So, Tesla has increased prices in Belgium within 2 weeks?
Before: 44990€ (I compared it with the Atto3), now its back to 45970€

 

[ElectricIAC]

So, Tesla has increased prices in Belgium within 2 weeks?
Before: 44990€ (I compared it with the Atto3), now its back to 45970€



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Make sure you didn’t accidentally tick any boxes?

 

[NicoV]

There seems to be a lot of Model 3/Y inventory building across Europe if EV-CPO is any indicator, which feels surprising considering the recent price cuts

EV-CPO Europe has over 800 New Model 3 listings right now, almost 1,000 Model Y, and zero Model S/X.

To put this in context: Tesla sold about 1000 cars per working day in Europe in 2022. More than 1000 cars per calendar day in Q4 2022. That was before the price reductions. 2000 cars inventory is nothing.

 

[EVDRVN]

I have to wonder why Tesla has not re-applied to CARB for the CA rebate. Technically Teslas now qualify for $2-$4k of CA rebates yet Tesla has not requested this per CA rebate officials knowledge. I wonder if they do not intend to keep prices low. What's going on here, anyone know?

 

[NicoV]

So, Tesla has increased prices in Belgium within 2 weeks?
Before: 44990€ (I compared it with the Atto3), now its back to 45970€



View attachment 898895View attachment 898894

I see 45970 too. So yes.

 

[Ogre]

I’d be more impressed with TSLA today if LCID and RIVN wasn’t up as much as they are.

Talked about this a few pages back. Tesla drives the EV industry. If Tesla is up, Rivian and the rest will rise as well unless there is some company specific news pushing them down.

I don’t think the lions care if the house cats get fed to.

 

[15Peter20]

I’d be more impressed with TSLA today if LCID and RIVN wasn’t up as much as they are.

And NKLA.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I have to wonder why Tesla has not re-applied to CARB for the CA rebate. Technically Teslas now qualify for $2-$4k of CA rebates yet Tesla has not requested this per CA rebate officials knowledge. I wonder if they do not intend to keep prices low. What's going on here, anyone know?

If the demand exceeds supply then it makes sense they should raise the price of the cars not bound by compliance pricing to level off demand.

 

[phantasms]

I hope this isn't a buy the rumor, sell the news thing going into the earnings call

No that never happens.

 

[AndrewZ]

To put this in context: Tesla sold about 1000 cars per working day in Europe in 2022. More than 1000 cars per calendar day in Q4 2022. That was before the price reductions. 2000 cars inventory is nothing.

We don't know what those numbers represent in reality, but I think most watching this stuff would say it's likely some unknown multiple of the listings if the inventory shows only 1-2 of each config at a single location. The trend is what's really important here and will inform what more might be coming.

Combined Model 3/Y inventory in the US was just under 2,000 listings when the big price cuts were brought in. As usual I'm here to be the pessimistic sounding board, and Europe is currently in a much worse spot economically than North America.

 

[Snerruc]

Interesting. The retail investor volume somehow runs counter to typical supply-demand curves? Or do retail investors just not matter? When stock purchasing volume increases, shouldn't that tend to drive the stock price up? The SP certainly does NOT follow that relationship to that chart and timeline. So why has retail's increased volume driven the stock price down? Unless we don't count...

When there are an unlimited amount of synthetic shares being created, the retail investors are lost in the noise.

 

[WattsHappening]

No posts for 30 minutes in the middle of a day when the SP is up 8%?

Are we all just staring at the ticker?

 

[cab]

Hoping we’re above 150 come ER. If there is the usual great news-bad result in stock price traction, will be nice to have a buffer zone.

…..you gotta have a buffer zone

This.

 

[Ogre]

No that never happens.

We’ve had 3 months of solid selling. It’s hard to call this “buy the rumor”. They’ve been selling the rumor since October.

No posts for 30 minutes in the middle of a day when the SP is up 8%?

Are we all just staring at the ticker?

Stunned. Like a bear in the headlights.