Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

Last summer I posted the observation above, an observation that was precipitated by the sudden appearance of Cybertruck prototypes that had a waviness to the panels that was apparent when reflections in the panels were viewed obliquely. The initial prototypes, I believe including the one that was first displayed at the Petersen Automotive Museum, didn't have this characteristic visible. Also, that Elon was Tweeting about a highly configurable utility/passenger van at this time. I suspect he wants to migrate the Cybertruck chassis/body technology into new models.

Videos of the most recent Cybertruck pre-production examples still have this characteristic waviness to the flat panels but it looks more uniform and better controlled. I still think it's due to an entirely new production process being developed by Tesla that increases their vertical integration by using a cold-rolling process to harden the panels as they are bent and formed in order to reduce raw material costs and avoid the issues of having to fabricate the panels out of steel that has already been hardened by cold-rolling at the metal foundry.

The waviness could also be caused by stresses introduced in the panels as they are welded to one another, but I think this the less likely scenario since the earliest prototypes did not appear wavy.

I've quoted the post above for those who may have missed it last July. I'm super stoked about the Cybertruck going into production, not so much because of its clean, simple look, which I am also quite a fan of, but because of this revolutionary new production process that takes modern unibody vehicles to an entirely new level, resulting in a utilitarian vehicle, without paint, that is going to last and last (regardless of the process used to fabricate them). Over the next year or two, keep a close eye on how the economics of Cybertruck manufacturing evolve. Like all new technologies, it's probably going to take a certain amount of time and innovation to drive costs of the manufacturing process lower, the question is, how big is the potential prize at the end and will that usher in an automotive revolution of lighter, stronger and more durable automobiles that cost less to make in great numbers?

I appreciate this observation and line of thinking regarding the waviness and "imperfections" in the CT's SS panels! I would like to posit and offer a different approach to how to look at these "undesirable" qualities:

Taking Elon's sometimes seen decisions to embrace outcomes, rather than fight them; how about we/they (Tesla design team) encourage these effects which occur during the SS forming/shaping/cutting/joining stages? The results could turn from something that looks like an undesirable mistake to something quite unique and beautiful? Examples might be the flame pattern produced when working copper with a brazing torch; geometric stress lines coming out of stretching any number of materials, the browning on the surface of meats when grilling or roasting, the smooth surface of a pond transformed by the effects of freezing... the list could go on...

What could result from such explorations might possibly be something quite beautiful, and considerably more desirable than perfectly flat and smooth body panels with no personality of their own. Especially considering that all Cybertrucks produced will essentially be the same; in contrast to paintable metal cars that can at least be offered in different colors.

Something to think about.

 

[2daMoon]

I appreciate this observation and line of thinking regarding the waviness and "imperfections" in the CT's SS panels! I would like to posit and offer a different approach to how to look at these "undesirable" qualities:

Taking Elon's sometimes seen decisions to embrace outcomes, rather than fight them; how about we/they (Tesla design team) encourage these effects which occur during the SS forming/shaping/cutting/joining stages? The results could turn from something that looks like an undesirable mistake to something quite unique and beautiful? Examples might be the flame pattern produced when working copper with a brazing torch; geometric stress lines coming out of stretching any number of materials, the browning on the surface of meats when grilling or roasting, the smooth surface of a pond transformed by the effects of freezing... the list could go on...

What could result from such explorations might possibly be something quite beautiful, and considerably more desirable than perfectly flat and smooth body panels with no personality of their own. Especially considering that all Cybertrucks produced will essentially be the same; in contrast to paintable metal cars that can at least be offered in different colors.

Something to think about.

It would be a special aspect when you can recognize your CT, parked next to others, due to some visual detail unique to it's creation.

Like snowflakes, every one is different.

 

[FSDtester#1]

If you equalize the down payments it looks like this.

View attachment 903103

If only Toyota could equalize the car

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why not April 20, at 1:09am.

Lol, that's faster than our historic posting rate, but like the Universe and Main Sequence stars, TMC maximizes IRONY!

Cheers!

 

[wipster]

I still don't understand why anyone would literally rent a car for $500/month for three years and be left with nothing, and just have to give the car back at the end of the rental period???????

A lot of people can't afford payments that are twice the amount of a lease price. And many folks like a change of vehicles every three years. Normally when you take price depreciation into consideration, it's way cheaper to lease than buy... Teslas are a bit different because they don't depreciate! I do wish Tesla gave you the option to buy at the end of the lease though...

I personally would never lease but then again I can afford to buy, even more so now with the lowered prices. But for folks who can't the newly lowered lease price makes driving a Tesla (M3 at least) much more affordable.

 

[wipster]

I appreciate this observation and line of thinking regarding the waviness and "imperfections" in the CT's SS panels! I would like to posit and offer a different approach to how to look at these "undesirable" qualities:

Taking Elon's sometimes seen decisions to embrace outcomes, rather than fight them; how about we/they (Tesla design team) encourage these effects which occur during the SS forming/shaping/cutting/joining stages? The results could turn from something that looks like an undesirable mistake to something quite unique and beautiful? Examples might be the flame pattern produced when working copper with a brazing torch; geometric stress lines coming out of stretching any number of materials, the browning on the surface of meats when grilling or roasting, the smooth surface of a pond transformed by the effects of freezing... the list could go on...

What could result from such explorations might possibly be something quite beautiful, and considerably more desirable than perfectly flat and smooth body panels with no personality of their own. Especially considering that all Cybertrucks produced will essentially be the same; in contrast to paintable metal cars that can at least be offered in different colors.

Something to think about.

It will be interesting to see how many folks wrap their CT's. There will probably be some beautiful and/or interesting ones!

 

[JRP3]

What could result from such explorations might possibly be something quite beautiful, and considerably more desirable than perfectly flat and smooth body panels with no personality of their own.

Umm...no, I don't want my body panels warped from the factory thank you, nor do I think the general public would accept that. We've seen the noise that a few mm of panel gaps creates, just imagine pre-dented body panels.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I doubt there's any actual "waviness" to the panels. Almost certainly just an optical effect.

 

[AndrewZ]

It will be interesting to see how many folks wrap their CT's. There will probably be some beautiful and/or interesting ones!

You’d think it would be extremely easy to wrap

 

[SunCatcher]

It will be interesting to see how many folks wrap their CT's. There will probably be some beautiful and/or interesting ones!

We had our first Tesla (3) wrapped. I would never go that route again! Much too fragile a surface material for a vehicle, especially a truck. I now know for example that taking a wrapped CT off road would see the wrap ruined in pretty short order.

 

[unk45]

Tesla brought in-house this "Road Map" for future battery development with their acquistion of Maxwell Technologies in Feb 2019, paving the way forward in four (4) key areas:

1. Energy Density
2. Extended Battery Life
3. Cost Reductions, and
4. Battery Materials / Processing Tech

I think Tesla is simply following the development path adopted in 2019, which itself goes back to 2017. More about the original Maxwell battery deal in this article published 4 years ago today:

Tesla’s Maxwell deal is about lowering costs and keeping a battery moat | MarketWatch (Feb 04, 2019)​

Battery Day was held in Sep 2020, 18 mths after the Maxwell acquistion, and layed out the broad strokes of Tesla's future battery plan. Today, we're seeing in realtime the first such battery machine being built in Texas. Cybertruck will be it's dramatic reveal, and embodiment.

Cheers!

That was my own reference, as a former Maxwell shareholder. However, it seems that most of the advances have not yet materialized in mass production. Hence my questions about the new press as a harbinger of realization of the long ago Battery Day plans.

 

[JRP3]

We had our first Tesla (3) wrapped. I would never go that route again! Much too fragile a surface material for a vehicle, especially a truck. I now know for example that taking a wrapped CT off road would see the wrap ruined in pretty short order.

Yeah it defeats the purpose of the SS finish, though I'm sure some people will do it.

 

[Christine69420]

Fun Fact:​

I estimate that TMC's Perpetual Investors' Roundtable will reach* Comment #420,069 on Wednesday, April 26, 2023​

#Predict

*Bonus pts for the hex2dec.

I estimate that the share price will reach my moniker $69,420 well before Saturday, April 20, 2069.

#Predict

*Bonus for everyone nailing when we hit my split adjusted moniker of $23,140

 

[SunCatcher]

Umm...no, I don't want my body panels warped from the factory thank you, nor do I think the general public would accept that. We've seen the noise that a few mm of panel gaps creates, just imagine pre-dented body panels.

lol, I think we've not even begun to see the noise coming for the CT once it begins to hit the streets! Personally, I predict it's going to be quite an entertaining spectacle for some time. Then, acceptance.

But no, I wasn't suggesting that Tesla just embrace the warping as is, and lets it go at that. If it can't be made to look desirable, then they clearly shouldn't do it...

 

[Artful Dodger]

True.

Except: What’s failed to be mentioned is that BEFORE the tweet the stock had already significantly (and mostly) risen due to the Saudi buying TSLA stock rumor (and owning >5%). Most speculators were already in at that point.

THEN Elon’s tweet happened and while the stock did rise some more, most of the rise had long since occurred due to the Saudi rumor.

People forget (or don't know) the sequence of events on Aug 07, 2018: My comment #65,409

"TSLA jumped from the low 340s to the high 350s in the morning of Aug 8 after the Financial Times broke the story (12:18 pm EST) of the $2B Saudi investment in Tesla.​

​

"The SP only ran up another $6 after Elon's tweet (12:48 pm EST) before NASDAQ halted trading, but the SP was increasing rapidly anyway. The tweet acted as confirmation of Saudi interest in Tesla."​

The Event timeline:

• Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund builds $2bn Tesla stake | Financial Times | (2018-08-07 12:18 ET)
• DISQUS: BREAKING: Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund builds $2bn Tesla stake. TSLA SP up $10 in 3 minutes. | Artful Dodger (2018-08-07 12:24 ET)
• Elon Musk on Twitter: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." | (2018-08-07 12:48 ET)

Here is an annotated Google chart of TSLA share price during the time in question:

As anyone can plainly see, more than half of the share price jump happened after the Financial Times broke the story, but BEFORE Elon's tweet. Yes, 30 mins after the FT story, Elon confirmed it's validity, so naturally further TSLA buying interest appeared.

But clearly, it was the FT news of the Saudi PIF buying TSLA stock that initiated the SP jump on Aug 7, 2018, NOT Elon's tweet.

Did anybody see what happend to $LCID stock Jan 27, 2023 on the rumor that the Saudi PIF would buy out the remainder of Lucid's shares? That was a 100% pop going from $9 to $18, and causing the exchange to halt trading 9 separate times. Note that TSLA shares only rose a max ~9% (from $340 to $370) after the Saudi news on Aug 7, 2018.

$LCID shares fell when the rumor was debunked. IS THE #SEC GONNA SUE NOW? Are gamblers investors being protected?!

Cheers!

 

[unk45]

True.

Except: What’s failed to be mentioned is that BEFORE the tweet the stock had already significantly (and mostly) risen due to the Saudi buying TSLA stock rumor (and owning >5%). Most speculators were already in at that point.

THEN Elon’s tweet happened and while the stock did rise some more, most of the rise had long since occurred due to the Saudi rumor.

THEN over the coming days, as Elon became aware of the hoops retail investors would have to or simply wouldn’t be able to jump through to own private company stock, and the outcry from those retail investors - only then did Elon change his mind and decide not to take Tesla private.

That’s the FULL truth of the situation.

Thanks for reminding us, and the ones among us who became shareholders afterwards.
Frankly I was amazed anybody had any question about that, since the Saudi position then, as now, is squarely directed towards being prepared for a less fossil fuel dependent future.
After all, The Line, Neon, Al Nama all were fairly recent but Saudi beginnings were back in 2011:

https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/sa/80559pd.pdf

Even Forbes mentioned the Saudi plans with Tesla:

Strange Bedfellows: Saudi Arabia And Tesla Inc.

Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund is investing in Elon Musk's Tesla Inc. While the move may seem counterintuitive, it reveals a shrewd economic hedging strategy that aims to decouple fossil fuels from the Kingdom's economic future.

www.forbes.com

When Elon tweeted funding secured on August 7, the Saudi interest in acquiring Tesla was clear and unambiguous. After the anti-Saudi political blowback began they dropped out, not really wanted to cope with US political uproar. By that time Elon realized all the headwinds also, not least from retail Tesla investors.

Several of us who knew Saudi investors at the time were well aware that controversy would probably scuttle the deal.

The suit was IMHO done in bad faith. It did not require inside information to know the Saudi interest was real.

 

[Krugerrand]

It will be interesting to see how many folks wrap their CT's. There will probably be some beautiful and/or interesting ones!

I’m actually debating etching mine.

 

[Krugerrand]

I doubt there's any actual "waviness" to the panels. Almost certainly just an optical effect.

Getting these panels ‘flat’ will be a miracle. Waviness appears in regular steel and aluminum panels in all cars of all makes. I saw a Maserati once that you could surf on the body panels. Certain colors like black can accentuate waviness just as other colors like white can hide it.

Stainless steel body panels without waviness - Time consuming, expensive and VERY, VERY difficult. I’m interested in seeing how well Tesla is able to manage it.

 

[wipster]

I’m actually debating etching mine.

Kinda like getting a tattoo for your rig. Interesting concept!

 

[SunCatcher]

I’m actually debating etching mine.

Yes indeed; I believe that etching will be the way to go with the SS CT.
My niece is a very well known tattoo artist. I'd love to commission her skills towards producing something along these lines for us, via etching (although I know this looks like a wrap, and is computer generated);