Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[trayloader]

Thanks for reminding us, and the ones among us who became shareholders afterwards.
Frankly I was amazed anybody had any question about that, since the Saudi position then, as now, is squarely directed towards being prepared for a less fossil fuel dependent future.
After all, The Line, Neon, Al Nama all were fairly recent but Saudi beginnings were back in 2011:

https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/sa/80559pd.pdf

Even Forbes mentioned the Saudi plans with Tesla:

Strange Bedfellows: Saudi Arabia And Tesla Inc.

Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund is investing in Elon Musk's Tesla Inc. While the move may seem counterintuitive, it reveals a shrewd economic hedging strategy that aims to decouple fossil fuels from the Kingdom's economic future.

www.forbes.com

When Elon tweeted funding secured on August 7, the Saudi interest in acquiring Tesla was clear and unambiguous. After the anti-Saudi political blowback began they dropped out, not really wanted to cope with US political uproar. By that time Elon realized all the headwinds also, not least from retail Tesla investors.

Several of us who knew Saudi investors at the time were well aware that controversy would probably scuttle the deal.

The suit was IMHO done in bad faith. It did not require inside information to know the Saudi interest was real.

At the same time King Salman made his US PR trip. His first introduction as a „nice character“ to the world. That was the ideal by their orchestrated plot.
Don’t forget it then was only days afterwards that the kings henchmen cut their opponent to pieces so in hindsight the „Saudi Hype“ was nivellated and thus it’s impact on stocks. Elon might have been happy after all that they went to Rawlinson further cementing his vendetta with his ex chief engineer.

 

[trayloader]

Getting these panels ‘flat’ will be a miracle. Waviness appears in regular steel and aluminum panels in all cars of all makes. I saw a Maserati once that you could surf on the body panels. Certain colors like black can accentuate waviness just as other colors like white can hide it.

Stainless steel body panels without waviness - Time consuming, expensive and VERY, VERY difficult. I’m interested in seeing how well Tesla is able to manage it.

Not true. In Architecture facades and tiles that’s a proven concept for decades.

 

[wipster]

True enough if taken to that extreme. But, you are unlikely to find any 9 year leases or 9 year loans. Though the advent of long lasting EVs could eventually lead to longer loan periods being offered.

I'd like to see a 9 year loan for an EV. The overall payout is likely much less than the cost of three leases over the same period and the monthly hit would probably be lower as well. Maybe X.com will be offering long-term loans on Teslas someday soon...

There is one big difference though. If you took out a 9 year loan, at the end of 9 years, you would be driving a 9 year-old Tesla (still a great car though). Whereas the person who continues to lease would be taking delivery of their 3rd new state-of-the-art Tesla!

Something to be considered.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes indeed; I believe that etching will be the way to go with the SS CT.
My niece is a very well known tattoo artist. I'd love to commission her skills towards producing something along these lines for us, via etching (although I know this looks like a wrap, and is computer generated);

View attachment 903225

Make that a cat eye and it would be perfect.

 

[mongo]

Re 420: beyond stock price and movement, as seen with the other T word stock action, a buy offer at a revealed price severely impacts option pricing. Calls above 420 would be worthless as would puts below 420.

Re CT: the prototype likely used thicker panels.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not true. In Architecture facades and tiles that’s a proven concept for decades.

Not for cars, not considering the bending that’ll need to be done, and the size and shape of the panels, and not for ease of manufacturing/efficiencies/mass production and all that needs to happen for Tesla to do this vehicle economically.

 

[SunCatcher]

Make that a cat eye and it would be perfect.

As long as it doesn't resemble yours.

 

[Hiline]

Some simple 'rithmetic ...

Say Tesla gains $3,000 per car by not being hobbled by the $55k price limit
1.5E6 such cars in 2023 = $4.5E9 extra annual profit

3B shares means $1.5 extra profit per year*share
At P:E of 20:1 that adds $30 to share price
At P:E of 50:1 that adds $75 to share price

You’re directionally correct. Need to factor taxes in to get the change in operational margin. $3k additional gross margin per car is a reasonable assumption for the US, but I don’t think Tesla will be raising prices in other markets anytime soon. In fact they just slashed prices in Asia right before the hikes in the US.

 

[Hiline]

View attachment 903125

Do we know how much Lithium an average Tesla consumes? Trying to see what the real impact of Lithium price on Tesla COGS looks like.

 

[KBF]

There is one big difference though. If you took out a 9 year loan, at the end of 9 years, you would be driving a 9 year-old Tesla (still a great car though). Whereas the person who continues to lease would be taking delivery of their 3rd new state-of-the-art Tesla!

Something to be considered.

There's also a chance that interest rates will be lower for the 2nd and 3rd leases; pricing on the new car may be higher or lower, depending on inflation/deflation's affect on costs vs continued efficiencies from advancements in manufacturing. Of course, WW3 breaks out and then prices could skyrocket...

So more stability/predictability with the loan, playing a gambling game with future prices on the lease (but a new car every 3 years, reducing maintenance cost odds, keeping things under warranty); it's an interesting dilemma. In the past I've paid cash, then traded in a month before warranty expired. A lease for the length of warranty would be interesting to me, but in Canada I only see up to 36 months...

 

[dhanson865]

Price drop on the Model 3, Price increase on the Model Y.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Nice, but the phrase “EV Market share” should be taken out and shot. Total vehicle market share is what counts and what Tesla is competing in.

It would be like dinging Apple in 2009 for its falling smartphone market share when in fact it was taking over the phone market.

Any analyst that mentions EV market share should immediately be placed on the permanent ignore list. It would be like talking about 4, 6, or 8 cylinder market share.

 

[Buckminster]

Do we know how much Lithium an average Tesla consumes? Trying to see what the real impact of Lithium price on Tesla COGS looks like.

It's not a big impact. As a long term super bull, I kind of like the higher prices. Biggest risk is a lack of lithium in ~5-10 years, high prices mean greater investment in mining and refining.

 

[trayloader]

Not for cars, not considering the bending that’ll need to be done, and the size and shape of the panels, and not for ease of manufacturing/efficiencies/mass production and all that needs to happen for Tesla to do this vehicle economically.

Absolutely not the case. I would even speculate Franz& Team Got the inspiration from walls cladding and panels. Think Apple Store and professional kitchens which have to withstand severe conditions.
Tesla loves to look over the fence.
They used the company Saueressig for the Cell rolling which were not specialists in Batteries before.
Another example the stacked segments of starship which looked like sugar in the beginning until they consulted a silo manufacturer.

Same I would guess for the vector like CT design. It’s been done before just in another field.

LEVELe Wall Cladding System

The LEVELe Wall Cladding System unites high-performance green materials, lightweight panels and numerous configuration options.

www.forms-surfaces.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This is why Tesla is going to dominate - legacy has spent year after year slapping parts from N different companies together without caring about efficiency or technology. Tesla started from the ground up with both hardware and software, and these companies don't have the time, money, or expertise to catch up.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621905071838478338

Sawyer added : Farley said these and other cost problems meant that Ford “left about $2 billion of profit on the table.”

Tesla is not leaving those profits on the table

 

[TesslaBull]

A lot of people can't afford payments that are twice the amount of a lease price. And many folks like a change of vehicles every three years. Normally when you take price depreciation into consideration, it's way cheaper to lease than buy... Teslas are a bit different because they don't depreciate! I do wish Tesla gave you the option to buy at the end of the lease though...

I personally would never lease but then again I can afford to buy, even more so now with the lowered prices. But for folks who can't the newly lowered lease price makes driving a Tesla (M3 at least) much more affordable.

Well, I understand that it makes the monthly payment cheaper, but unfortunately for the consumer, the cost to drive the car is the highest possible by leasing. If someone cannot afford to *buy* a Tesla, they really shouldn't be renting one, and I think they are worse off when a corporation figures out a way to take their money anyways. Would be better if people would *buy* a car they can comfortably afford, and wait to buy a Tesla until they can afford it. Just my opinion. I know monthly payment shoppers probably love leasing, I just think it's kind of taking advantage of people that probably shouldn't be buying or driving an expensive Tesla.

Now in terms of Tesla investing, I am a recent shareholder with Tesla being the only single stock I own. I bought 40 shares at $170. I wish I had bought another 100 at $102 but, I bought a car I couldn't afford in December . Decided I'm not gonna speculate on single stocks until I finish paying off my M3 this summer haha. If I had been smart and bought a car that was more affordable, I probably would have grabbed those 100 shares.

 

[wipster]

Do we know how much Lithium an average Tesla consumes? Trying to see what the real impact of Lithium price on Tesla COGS looks like.

Great question (even though it's not consumed... utilized might be better). This is from a 2020 article from Bloomberg and I don't know exactly how applicable it is to Tesla, but it might help:

"A typical EV battery cell has perhaps a couple of grams of lithium in it. That's about one-half teaspoon of sugar. A typical EV can have about 5,000 battery cells. Building from there, a single EV has roughly 10 kilograms—or 22 pounds—of lithium in it.Oct 1, 2020"

 

[WADan]

(Sorry if this had been posted).

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/04/business/automakers-problems-catching-up-with-tesla/index.html

This is old news for those of us who had watched Munro’s teardown.
The competition is still COMING!

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
ARK Big Ideas discussion - 2023 report just came out
How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement - too early?
EV and Battery Credits - M3 prices up, My prices down in response to $80k change

 

[Hiline]

Great question (even though it's not consumed... utilized might be better). This is from a 2020 article from Bloomberg and I don't know exactly how applicable it is to Tesla, but it might help:

"A typical EV battery cell has perhaps a couple of grams of lithium in it. That's about one-half teaspoon of sugar. A typical EV can have about 5,000 battery cells. Building from there, a single EV has roughly 10 kilograms—or 22 pounds—of lithium in it.Oct 1, 2020"

Thank you! So at the current lithium carbonate price of $80/kg, the processed lithium in a Tesla probably costs $1k-2k? If so, even a 50% drop in lithium prices would make a Tesla only 1k less to build.