Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

“Tesla won’t have sales in South America because it current has no sales there”

Holy hell, I can’t believe I read that, not even Gordon would say something this stupid,

Haha, don't be so hard on our old friend the Trojan Mule. To his credit, he also accurately predicted total world-wide airplane sales in 1903. /S

Ryan Polsley on Twitter: "@TroyTeslike @TroyTeslike I’ve heard that the car that will be produced coming out of Mexico will be the generation 3 platform and may not even be released in the US initially. If true, then Mexico is for the South American market." / Twitter​

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Troy Teslike on Twitter: "@RyanPolsley No. Those countries have zero EV sales potential." / Twitter​

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Troy Teslike on Twitter: "@Kern_Harst @RyanPolsley I'm looking at current Tesla sales. It's practically zero." / Twitter​

Cjeers!

 

[SmokyPeat]

• Lose power steering and one can still stop the car, albeit with a lot more shoving on the brake pedal.

Power steering is another matter entirely. I know you probably meant to say power brakes- but a similar situation exists for electronic, drive-by-wire steering. I believe a few manufacturers have attempted dbw steering, but abandoned it due to safety concerns. Here again the aircraft industry has taken the lead. Just a matter of time before this tech makes it way into autos.

 

[electracity]

 

[electracity]

I think you guys are just mad that Troy pointed out Elon's lie about eliminating the ultrasonic sensors.

Although I don't think it was cost cutting, but rather supply.

 

[GhostSkater]

So, just to throw a wrench in the works: Yeah, I can see where electric brakes might be cheaper than running around with all those pistons, cylinders, hydraulic fluid lines, and reservoirs. But.. while Brake Failure is a Thing (hit the brakes, pedal goes to the floor and Nothing!), it's exceedingly rare. And it's rare because, well, it's reliable.

• There's not just one brake system in Ye Standard Car, there's two! Front left/Rear right and Front right/Left rear are independent, so if one gets a brake line ripped out, one loses two wheels but keeps the other two. It's not ideal, sure, but it's better than the alternatives.
• Direct physical connection between the brake pedal and all those brake cylinders back there. Lose power steering and one can still stop the car, albeit with a lot more shoving on the brake pedal. So, even if The End Is Nigh for the ICE engine or all the electrics in a Tesla, one can still stop the car. Again, not ideal, but sure better than the alternatives.
• People have been designing and building brakes for a very long time. Known technology on a safety-critical system.. sounds like a good idea.

So, I'm willing to entertain the idea of ebrakes. But, sure and begorrah, whatever form those things take, they had better have at least the reliability of ye olde fashioned hydraulic systems. And not just an overall reliability figure, but the ability to Not Crash The Car When Things Go Wrong. (Fail On, mentioned above, gives me the willies: Suppose that a fuse goes blooey whilst one is barreling down an interstate in heavy traffic at 70 mph? One Does Not Want Screetch The Tires Braking in such a situation.)

There might be other, mechanical parallel solutions that gives one a measure of control when the primary braking is toast. My old '71 VW Beetle had honest-to-golly cables going to the rear drum brakes for parking brake purposes. That came in handy the day my shoelaces (!) got snagged around the brake pedal, preventing me from putting my foot on the brake to avoid a stopped car immediately ahead. Pulling the emergency brake and turning sharp right onto a curb saved the day. Although I guess that using my left foot would have worked, too.

Main point: ebrakes had better be more reliable and fault-tolerant than the current hydraulic solution. Otherwise, there will be bodies.

Well, we don't need ebrakes everywhere, just on the rear

Brake pedal and front axle will be on the same module, and front is where most of the braking power anyway

Also, isn't the Brembo system exactly like that? Just half of it by-wire and still hydraulic? But for the two remotes ones you have a servo actuating a secondary pair of pistons

That is just perfect for Tesla approach, you keep safety and allow the modular approach

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does Tesla go with an Exoskeleton style exterior on all of their vehicles going forward?

No, I don't think so. The thing CT has most in common with Gen 3 platform is no paint. In terms of final assembly, it won't be possible to build the CT exoskeleton by joining 3 finished boxes like Gen 3.

 

[betstarship]

Since its the weekend, I want to share this:

S&P 500 vs. 10-year Treasury Yield | MacroMicro

US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, deemed as risk-free rate, reflects the opportunity costs for investment. Bond yield increases/decreases as demand slows/rises. Other factors affecting bond yield including Central bank's monetary policy and the global economy. The two lines, for example, have...

en.macromicro.me

Edit: the 40-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury yield.

Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates vs Treasury Prices

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/a-look-at-the-relationship-between-the-10-year-treasury-and-30-year-mortgage-rate_o

 

[Artful Dodger]

I doubt they will build them in the USA or Canada unless they can replace most labor with Optimus, and that doesn't seem likely for the next few years.

If the labor required to assemble a Gen 3 platform vehicle costs less than the current IRA subsidy, there is no impediment to building those cars at Giga Texas. During Investory Day, Tesla said Gen 3 would be built FIRST at Giga Monterrrey, but then at other existing factories.

I think that means Phase 2 in Berlin in about 2 years (wasser permitting), an a little faster in Austin (near the engineers, who will want one quickly). Shanghai is the real question mark. Do they build a new plant on the E. side of the R&D building as we've suspected for years, or does Tesla select a new location outside of China (geopolitical realities), such as S. Korea.

TL;dr All Tesla markets will have access to Gen 3 vehicles, and as soon as Tesla can do that.

 

[JRP3]

One of the 4 bullet points was that the new drive unit works with all battery chemistries.

i don’t understand. Don’t all drive units work with all chemistries?

Yeah that was an off note, didn't make any sense. Maybe he meant to say voltage?

 

[Ogre]

You may notice that New Zealand and Hawaii have characteristics not present in South America. Count the superchargers and service centers needed to support sales.

When you show that something similar has happened in the past it’s called an example.

Tesla will obviously expand into south america at some point. But they don't do that by building a factory thousands of miles away that will output a half million cars a couple of years from now. They will start in the wealthiest areas and sell all the vehicles Tesla currently exports to the affluent early adopters.

This is not how they introduced Tesla in most markets.

Most markets saw Model 3 years before Model S. After Gen 3 is launched it will be first in most markets.

 

[betstarship]

Also, another historical article:

Oil Shock of 1978–79

Explore the Federal Reserve's history

www.federalreservehistory.org

 

[Ogre]

First post here, but I have been reading this thread nearly daily for over a year now. Thanks to each of you for sharing salient insights – your contributions are providing incredible value to investors.

On the topic of electrical architecture there was a tidbit in the presentation that has not gotten much attention (apologies if I missed your post on this), and could have easily as big of an impact as the 12 -> 48 V update: Moving to fully Tesla-designed peripheral microcontrollers that communicate via a single ethernet network.

Letting the Tesla engineers speak to this (from Investor Day):

“The number of wires in the car is driven by the number of endpoints that need to be powered and controlled. In the past centralized control has led for wires spanning the entire car. For Cybertruck design we have moved to a local controller where the wire is connected to the nearest controller and those controllers are connected via ethernet. … The design has eliminated most of the cross-car wires in Cybertruck and with the next-gen platform we are going to finish the job and eliminate all of them.”

“And one of the nice things is that you can see the entire vehicle from a single connection..”

“Simplifying the wiring harness will enable automation.”

Did they really say this? How did I miss this? That presentation was so long and information dense apparently I let this slide through.

I suspected this was the case but didn’t hear it explicitly.

Thanks.

 

[electracity]

Apparently you’ve never heard of the concept of an example? It’s when you talk about something similar to another thing which a company has done.

About the sort of logic I’d expect from a guy who says truthfulness isn’t important.



This is not how they introduced Tesla in most markets.

Most markets saw Model 3 years before Model S. After Gen 3 is launched it will be first in most markets.

An analogy compares two items. You chose to compare a small wealthy archipelago to a largely poor and unstable continent.

Tesla first sold 500K vehicles in 2020. The Tesla infrastructure and demand present in North America and Europe in 2020 is what it took to sell half a million cars. When those similar conditions are present in South America Tesla can sell the output of the new factory to that continent.

 

[FireMedic]

John McElroy says “not sure what the analysts and media we’re looking at…it’s the most impressive automotive presentation I’ve ever seen”.

From the expert who historically panned all things Tesla, that’s high praise (tbf he’s done a 180 about tesla some time ago).

 

[MP3Mike]

View attachment 913850

@Troy is just hoping that in ~18 months once Giga Mexico is online and not primarily delivering vehicles to the US that nobody will remember just how wrong he was.

 

[Artful Dodger]

discounted cash flow at 4% (Tesla's 10-yr borrowing rate) values current FCF at $82B)

How is it March 3rd, 2023 already and Moody's has still not re-rated Tesla's (non-existant) debt? Who really pays these moody people? What mood are they in? Dread, or denial?

 

[Artful Dodger]

EPS contribution just from TN reaches $70/share by 2033. So that's maybe $2,000 share valuation just for TN by then (discounted to today @ 15%) the current value of TN is ~$500 per share addtional for TSLA, growing to $2K/sh in 10 years.

Yes, I'll be the first to say it out loud: the CURRENT VALUE of the Tesla Network (TN) for robotaxi ride-hailing TaaS is $1.5 TRILLION dollars.

You're welcome.

 

[electracity]

Yes, I'll be the first to say it out loud: the CURRENT VALUE of the Tesla Network (TN) for robotaxi ride-hailing TaaS is $1.5 TRILLION dollars.

You're welcome.

Peanuts. The estimated value of my worldwide Star Trek transporter network is $17 Trillion.

 

[Ogre]

An analogy compares two items. You chose to compare a small wealthy archipelago to a largely poor and unstable continent.

Tesla first sold 500K vehicles in 2020. The Tesla infrastructure and demand present in North America and Europe in 2020 is what it took to sell half a million cars. When those similar conditions are present in South America Tesla can sell the output of the new factory to that continent.

South America is not some impoverished wasteland. Not all of it is politically unstable.

You should maybe get out more and stop watching alarmist broadcast TV. Most of these countries have a middle class.

 

[Xepa777]

I think you guys are just mad that Troy pointed out Elon's lie about eliminating the ultrasonic sensors.

Although I don't think it was cost cutting, but rather supply.

Yah there's a weird hater boner for Troy here when, if I had the time/energy, could point out so many instances where he was right on facts/projections and TMC community was wrong.

I also don't see it as mutually exclusive to say (1) Troy has good point on price cuts in Europe cuz not enough demand at current price points in China/Europe, (2) basing future demand off current demand is dumb cuz price points of cars will be totally different for those markets and open up new possibilities, (3) even a $25k car might be too expensive for LatAm where annual income is like $25k-ish.

Do things have to be so black/white? Or are people gonna just continuously trash everyone someone says just because of who it's coming from (Troy, Fred, etc.). I've noticed lots of TMC posters just indiscriminately downvote everything I say too and it's pretty petty/pathetic.