Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

We might even find out tomorrow morning if there will be a rate pause:

Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC | federalreserve.gov (3 hrs ago)

Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC

Washington, DC -- The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, and FDIC Cha

www.federalreserve.gov

WHEN might we find out about this possible rate paws, I mean, pause?

I'm asking for a close friend who has all these options, you see...

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Mar 13, 2023 09:09 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$167.5 -5.94 (-3.42%)
Pre-Market Volume	6,113,090
Pre-Market High	$179.25 (04:04:06 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$166 (08:40:37 AM)

 

[Artful Dodger]

WHEN might we find out about this possible rate paws, I mean, pause?

I'm asking for a close friend who has all these options, you see...

There was word yesterday that Pres. Biden would speak about the banks this morning. I'd think he'd have his Cabinet OPs with him. The FED needs to make a statement too, looking at the pre-Market.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Between being grandfathered in for free Supercharging and my pano-sunroof, it makes me hesitant to consider giving up my '13 Model S...

Word.

 

[Paracelsus]

Rivian, Amazon in talks to end exclusivity part of electric van deal - WSJ

Electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc and its largest shareholder Amazon.com Inc are in talks to end the exclusivity part of their electric van deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday citing people familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

"March 13 (Reuters) - Electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN.O) and its largest shareholder Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) are in talks to end the exclusivity part of their electric van deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday citing people familiar with the matter.

Online retailer Amazon had placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans (EDVs) from the Irvine, California-based EV maker in 2019, as part of the company's plans to cut carbon emissions. It has taken deliveries and inducted the EDVs into its fleet, with over 10 million packages delivered using the vans."

 

[Artful Dodger]

So we opened right on the MA(50), then dropped immediately to allow $170 Put holders to cash in. Now a little bit of support coming in from the 07:45 am Options delta hedging buys. Climbed some to tag the Lower-BB by 10:10 ET:

Banks are bloody red this a.m. Yes, the top-23 losers in the S&P 500 right now are U.S. Banks. Only 3 of the top-50 losers AREN'T banks, followed by a glut of energy co's.

Components of the S&P 500​

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
375	First Republic Bank	FRC	0.046035	27.08	-54.68	(-66.88%)
488	Zions Bancorporation N.A.	ZION	0.018756	22.55	-17.80	(-44.11%)
475	Comerica Incorporated	CMA	0.023866	35.74	-23.07	(-39.23%)
387	KeyCorp	KEY	0.044561	11.72	-3.95	(-25.19%)
303	Fifth Third Bancorp	FITB	0.064497	24.36	-6.01	(-19.79%)
135	Truist Financial Corporation	TFC	0.159421	31.27	-7.57	(-19.49%)
318	Huntington Bancshares Incorporated	HBAN	0.059131	11.11	-2.27	(-16.94%)
82	Charles Schwab Corp	SCHW	0.276281	48.79	-9.91	(-16.88%)
319	Regions Financial Corporation	RF	0.05887	17.85	-2.43	(-11.98%)
348	Citizens Financial Group Inc.	CFG	0.05222	30.88	-3.56	(-10.34%)
126	U.S. Bancorp	USB	0.169287	37.16	-3.47	(-8.53%)

 

[betstarship]

The bank, the largest to fail since 2008, worked with more than 1,550 technology firms that are creating solar, hydrogen and battery storage projects. According to its website, the bank issued them billions in loans.

“Silicon Valley Bank was in many ways a climate bank,” said Kiran Bhatraju, chief executive of Arcadia, the largest community solar manager in the country. “When you have the majority of the market banking through one institution, there’s going to be a lot of collateral damage.”

more:

“Climate tech is one of the few bright spots in an overall tech downturn,” said Sarah Sclarsic, managing partner at Voyager, a venture capital firm with investments in climate tech companies. “This isn’t folks in Silicon Valley building photo sharing apps. These are folks across the whole country, in Detroit and Texas and everywhere in between, building things that matter.”

more again:

Mr. Bhatraju said his company was able to retrieve most of its deposits from the bank last week. His bigger concern was that solar developers, which relied on Silicon Valley Bank for loans and lines of credit to build their projects, would now have to search for new funding.

“Projects will likely be delayed significantly as developers go to find new sources of capital,” he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/climate/silicon-valley-bank-climate.html

 

[MARKM3]

Pretty obvious it was the perfect storm, however, It is a clear sign our economy is heading for a recession. The depth of the recession will be what is the unknown.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Better news Thailand...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634944833579261952

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon filed an amended SEC Form SC 13G/A this morning: (relevent excerpt below)

EXPLANATORY NOTE ​

This Schedule 13G is being amended solely to correct an overreporting of 15 shares, and to reflect that certain shares had not been split-adjusted when previously reported as a charitable gift on a Form 5 dated February 14, 2023.

 

[AndrewZ]

Pretty obvious it was the perfect storm, however, It is a clear sign our economy is heading for a recession. The depth of the recession will be what is the unknown.

I think today is a good example of why rates coming down will not be a good thing for the market when it's rate cuts being brought in to help a struggling economy -- and this is how it has gone historically. The market bottom doesn't come with rate hikes designed to subdue an overheated economy where companies are posting record profits.

The market has gone from figuring we'll be at 5.4% at the end of the year to 3.9%

 

[JRP3]

Interesting thread on the SVB situation and how modern technology and social media played a part.
The TLDR from the author:

tldr: - Tech advancement has made finreg very dated - SVB wasn't on the greatest footing, but was largely taken down by virality and panic - Social media risk needs to be defined and taken seriously - Banks need to be more transparent about their business on socials.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634722138627121153

 

[EverettRuess]

I think today is a good example of why rates coming down will not be a good thing for the market when it's rate cuts being brought in to help a struggling economy -- and this is how it has gone historically. The market bottom doesn't come with rate hikes designed to subdue an overheated economy where companies are posting record profits.

The market has gone from figuring we'll be at 5.4% at the end of the year to 3.9%

After reading E. Warren editorial in the Times this morning I think Biden may dump Powell.

 

[AndrewZ]

After reading E. Warren editorial in the Times this morning I think Biden may dump Powell.

That would be a wild development

 

[Knightshade]

After reading E. Warren editorial in the Times this morning I think Biden may dump Powell.

It's unclear the president actually has the power to do that, especially without any cause greater than "disagrees with his financial policies"

 

[MARKM3]

Just my .02 cents

We raised rates too fast and a little too high without allowing enough time for there to be trickle down. Just like we waited far too long to increase rates, which the Fed always does because they operate on old data one quarter old.

The magic rate number is hard to determine, but most if not majority of all inflation was driven by supply shortages (labor, material). What I'm seeing now in our manufacturing industry is pricing dropping fast, down ~20-30% on some items. Demand is down that much too. A more appropriate approach would have been raise rates 1 time, maybe even 100bps, and wait 6 months to a year. The Fed has stepped in and created demand destruction across all sectors, instead of allowing certain markets to catch up and balance out.

Fuel costs have not come down although the cost to refine oil has not increased. Hence the oil company's record profit in 22. Fuel cost and oil pricing is a huge driver of inflation.

I would not buy any stock in any company at the moment, there is still too much uncertainty and especially betting on TSLA who is having to drop their drawls to spur up demand. FSD is not coming anytime soon, so there is no income potential from that. I sense a few very hard years ahead for the car market.

 

[Paracelsus]

I think today is a good example of why rates coming down will not be a good thing for the market when it's rate cuts being brought in to help a struggling economy -- and this is how it has gone historically. The market bottom doesn't come with rate hikes designed to subdue an overheated economy where companies are posting record profits.

The market has gone from figuring we'll be at 5.4% at the end of the year to 3.9%

Respectfully giving reason for disagree - I do agree that focusing only on Rates is very myopic and is little more than a band aid on a much bigger problem. I disagreed because I think we have a different view on the 'why'. Targeting Rates is targeting the 'symptom'. The World is catching on that there is a much deeper 'cause', and that the symptoms are approaching a terminal diagnosis. In the US, that 'cause' is both Domestic and Foreign policy that are funded at unsustainable levels while both are achieving insufficient 'return on investment' (to oversimplify). And there is no discussion to address this beyond raising taxes while keeping the funding flood gates open. Somebody from this administration needs to suggest tightening their belts in DC with offers to do so before anyone seriously takes a view that this is all behind us. And lets not forget that it wasn't that long ago that Chamath and a handful of others were suggesting we could operate successfully with negative interest rates IIRC...........ha! Imagine how well that would have worked out to transfer wealth upwards before this all happened.

 

[KBF]

Just my .02 cents

We raised rates too fast and a little too high without allowing enough time for there to be trickle down. Just like we waited far too long to increase rates, which the Fed always does because they operate on old data one quarter old.

The magic rate number is hard to determine, but most if not majority of all inflation was driven by supply shortages (labor, material). What I'm seeing now in our manufacturing industry is pricing dropping fast, down ~20-30% on some items. Demand is down that much too. A more appropriate approach would have been raise rates 1 time, maybe even 100bps, and wait 6 months to a year. The Fed has stepped in and created demand destruction across all sectors, instead of allowing certain markets to catch up and balance out.

Fuel costs have not come down although the cost to refine oil has not increased. Hence the oil company's record profit in 22. Fuel cost and oil pricing is a huge driver of inflation.

I would not buy any stock in any company at the moment, there is still too much uncertainty and especially betting on TSLA who is having to drop their drawls to spur up demand. FSD is not coming anytime soon, so there is no income potential from that. I sense a few very hard years ahead for the car market.

People still will need/want to drive... If Tesla can release that 3rd gen with incredibly cheap TCO car soon, and keep Cybertruck pricing significantly lower than any other truck, they may be the only American company left standing after this. Price will drive market share EVen more in a recession.

Remember that Tesla started when other car companies were going bankrupt, and they got their first facility at fire sale prices. It's not impossible to grow or thrive in a market downturn, if your cards are played correctly. SP, however, is completely irrational, so who knows where it ends up - but the fundamentals remain sound, and Tesla's direction/vision seems to be precisely what is necessary for an auto maker to survive in this current (and future) climate.

 

[MARKM3]

People still will need/want to drive... If Tesla can release that 3rd gen with incredibly cheap TCO car soon, and keep Cybertruck pricing significantly lower than any other truck, they may be the only American company left standing after this. Price will drive market share EVen more in a recession.

Remember that Tesla started when other car companies were going bankrupt, and they got their first facility at fire sale prices. It's not impossible to grow or thrive in a market downturn, if your cards are played correctly. SP, however, is completely irrational, so who knows where it ends up - but the fundamentals remain sound, and Tesla's direction/vision seems to be precisely what is necessary for an auto maker to survive in this current (and future) climate.

Great points! I think you are correct, but the short term pain for them will be low profit margins, increased competition, and a bad economy. If you're long a stock it may pay out - but the valuation at 500 billion is still too high. Most car company's trade at book value, TSLA does not and factors in the robotaxi income and other future income. Tesla already is valued as the most valuable car company in the world without producing or being the most valuable on paper.

TSLA is an extremely risky investment.

 

[Skryll]

[...reuters...]

"March 13 (Reuters) - Electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN.O) and its largest shareholder Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) are in talks to end the exclusivity part of their electric van deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday citing people familiar with the matter.

Online retailer Amazon had placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans (EDVs) from the Irvine, California-based EV maker in 2019, as part of the company's plans to cut carbon emissions. It has taken deliveries and inducted the EDVs into its fleet, with over 10 million packages delivered using the vans."

The interesting question would be - how many vans has amazon taken delivery of? I would be surprised if it was much more than the 1000 reported November last year.

What does this mean for the 100,000 order, is this going to get canceled ? Or are they already able to make so many per month that they could satisfy more than this 100,000 order?

In other words, is this bullish for Rivian or bearish for Amazon and in consequence Rivian and the economy at large as well. Is Tesla going to have to fill that gap with a van offer of their own?