Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I appreciate the input and added details. Excellent points! But does that justify their market value of 500B

No, it justifies a Market Cap of $2T in less than 4 years, which is a heavy discount from today's SP. That's only a 38% CAGR. Tesla's historic rate of growth is well over 50%.

That's what makes TSLA a great investment: the discrepacy between it's future value and the rediculous prices short sellers are handing out now. It's like taking candy from babies special needs children.

P.S. TSLA has a current Market Cap of over $550B, not your low-ball number.

 

[wtlloyd]

No, it's worth 2,000x book value. That's why it's a great investment, because Wall St has it drastically wrong, again, just like 2019. Ford has book value? I think they have net debt.


No stock should be bought on their current performance, it's where they're going that matters. Like Wayne Gretzy said, "skate to where the puck is going to be".


Hahaha, when has that ever not been the case? Guess that keeps the short-timer out though, so that's all good. CLUE: I'm not here for short-term gains. I'm in for the long-haul, baby!


Wow, you REALLY don't know me. I'd as soon buy XOM as buy a turd. But you can burn a turd and still be net carbon-neutral...

So nice, I upvoted it twice!

 

[mongo]

Not at all @JRP3 - my point was two-fold. Tesla made a very vocal investment in BTC. It was for "when the sh*t hits the fan".

Say what now?

Bloomberg
@business
·
Feb 18, 2021

"I'm surprised that Elon's so gung-ho on Doge coin," says Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, world’s largest #cryptocurrency exchange by volume, which launched futures for $DOGE. But he notes that
@elonmusk
's Tesla bet $1.5 billion on #Bitcoin, not Dogecoin https://trib.al/mKN4s9v
From
Bloomberg Asia

Elon Musk
Tesla’s action is not directly reflective of my opinion. Having some Bitcoin, which is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash, is adventurous enough for an S&P500 company.

Elon Musk
To be clear, I am *not* an investor, I am an engineer. I don’t even own any publicly traded stock besides Tesla. However, when fiat currency has negative real interest, only a fool wouldn’t look elsewhere. Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money. The key word is “almost”.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362598034866118658

No, you do not. I have not sold any of my Bitcoin. Tesla sold 10% of its holdings essentially to prove liquidity of Bitcoin as an alternative to holding cash on balance sheet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386821144037236737

Q1 2021 earnings call Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Thanks, Martin. So as I noted in our opening remarks and we've announced previously, so Tesla did invest $1.5 billion into bitcoin in Q1, and then we subsequently sold a 10% stake in that. We also allow customers to make vehicle deposits and final vehicle purchases using bitcoin.

And so where our bitcoin story began, maybe just to share a little bit of context here. Elon and I were looking for a place to store cash that wasn't being immediately used, trying to get some level of return on this, but also preserve liquidity. Particularly as we look forward to the launch of Austin and Berlin and uncertainty that's happening with semiconductors and port capacity, being able to access our cash very quickly is super important to us right now. And there aren't many traditional opportunities to do this or at least that we found and in talking to others that we could get good feedback on, particularly with yields being so low and without taking on additional risk or sacrificing liquidity.

And bitcoin seemed at the time and so far has proven to be a good decision. A good place to place some of our cash that's not immediately being used for daily operations or maybe not needed till the end of the year and be able to get some return on that. And I think one of the key points that I want to make about our experiences in the digital currency space is that there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic here. We're certainly watching it very closely at Tesla, watching how the market develops, listening to what our customers are saying.

But thinking about it from a corporate treasury perspective, we've been quite pleased with how much liquidity there is in the bitcoin market. So our ability to build our first position happened quickly. When we did the sale later in March, we also were able to execute on that very quickly. And so as we think about kind of global liquidity for the business in risk management, being able to get cash in and out of the market is something that I think is exceptionally important for us.

So we do believe long term in the value of bitcoin. So it is our intent to hold what we have long term and continue to accumulate bitcoin from transactions from our customers as they purchase vehicles. Specifically with respect to things we may do, there are things that we're constantly discussing. We're not planning to make any announcements here, and we're watching this space closely.

So when we're ready to make an announcement on this front, if there's one to come, we'll certainly let you all know.

 

[JRP3]

BTC is outperforming TSLA - isn't it? - so I could have done better if I would have moved some TSLA into BTC? And buying BTC at the time Tesla did has probably outperformed even a stock buyback from the same time for TSLA to this point - from the perspective of Tesla's spreadsheet.

You're doing a lot of cherry picking there, most of us were wanting Tesla to do a buy back near the recent lows where they would have come out much better. You can choose many investments that would have outperformed TSLA by picking specific date ranges.

 

[hobbes]

Model Y from Berlin on their way west (Belgium/Netherlands), as seen on the German freeway near the border today. Interesting that they are using a truck from Lithuania:

 

[oldTAVguy]

This is nuts Nikola up 6.66%...

Nikola Picks Up a New Rating From Wall Street. The Stock is Rising.

Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Dillon Cumming initiated coverage of Nikola stock with a Hold rating and $3 price target.

www.barrons.com

 

[Tony73]

This is nuts Nikola up 6.66%...

Nikola Picks Up a New Rating From Wall Street. The Stock is Rising.

Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Dillon Cumming initiated coverage of Nikola stock with a Hold rating and $3 price target.

www.barrons.com

Nikola will probably exit the BEV business before the end of next year. Long range tesla semi will reduce the FCEV to a very small niche if that. It’s future is anything but bright

 

[AndrewZ]

This is nuts Nikola up 6.66%...

Nikola Picks Up a New Rating From Wall Street. The Stock is Rising.

Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Dillon Cumming initiated coverage of Nikola stock with a Hold rating and $3 price target.

www.barrons.com

With interest rate cuts again being priced into the market, I think theoretically companies with most of their earnings (better yet, any earnings period) in the future would benefit most

 

[dl003]

Nikola will probably exit the BEV business before the end of next year. Long range tesla semi will reduce the FCEV to a very small niche if that

The only business NKLA is in, is raising capital.

 

[Unpilot]

I respectfully understand your position, but Buffet bought company's that were valued at fair market value and moats in their industry. Tesla is a Moat in their industry (EV world)

Common mistake...happens all the time, but maybe you already knew that?

 

[Rarity]

I honestly am really uncomfortable seeing all the blood red in the banking sector at one time.

Is this really a concern? The equity and debt stacks for these banks are being taken out. It may simply mean that Musk will be able to do an industry roll-up at a good price, if he really wants to (probably not needed or desirable for his purposes).

 

[ZsoZso]

It is much harder to grow in a recession when you are the size of what Tesla is now, as opposed to when they were starting out. Tesla will do fine, but let’s not try to make an equivalence on this particular point.

The real question isn't how fast Tesla can grow in a recession, but how fast all the competitors with their hundreds of $billions of debt go bankrupt.
The talking heads on CNBC will be in trouble once they can no longer bring up their favorite "competition is coming" slogan.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report updated with Q4 2022 data.

TL;dr It's the safest Q4 ever.

Cheers!

 

[CHGolferJim]

It's unclear the president actually has the power to do that, especially without any cause greater than "disagrees with his financial policies"

If anyone thinks the market doesn’t like Powell, what do you suppose it would think of monetary policy dominated by Warren and Biden? There are good reasons why the Fed is structured to be as independent as possible, and why voters rejected Warren’s presidential campaign.

 

[CHGolferJim]

FTFY.



Warren Buffet got rich while buying when there was blood in the Street. Elon said to invest in companies that make real stuff that people want and need. TSLA checks both boxes. I'd rather invest here than in something ACTUALLY risky, like say, FINTECH.

Fintech start-ups are a gold mine of opportunity since they will disrupt traditional banks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fintech start-ups are a gold mine of opportunity.

I guess, unless yur Bankman gits Fried...

EDIT to add:
1 Bitcoin = 24,129.60 United States Dollar (1:40 pm ET)

 

[dm28997]

11.3.1 is going out now from Twitter read.
I don't have it as yet.

 

[Cal1]

If anyone thinks the market doesn’t like Powell, what do you suppose it would think of monetary policy dominated by Warren and Biden? There are good reasons why the Fed is structured to be as independent as possible, and why voters rejected Warren’s presidential campaign.

The federal reserve board FRB controls monetary policy completely independent from Warren and Biden. Numerous books written on how the FRB is not controlled by anyone we elected. They have actually been accused of swaying elections by their interest rate decisions. Bush SR reminded the press of these when asked about whether interest rates were going down soon. He explained that monetary policy was under Greenspan's control not the president's.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I would not buy any stock in any company at the moment, there is still too much uncertainty and especially betting on TSLA who is having to drop their drawls to spur up demand. FSD is not coming anytime soon, so there is no income potential from that. I sense a few very hard years ahead for the car market.

Serious questions, with your current fear of recession where are the majority of your investments? Cash? Bonds? Index funds?

Did you sell stocks recently to exit the risky investments?

 

[Singuy]

Shorts are smelling blood today