Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[navguy12]

Loved your comment, but couldn't give it a heart emoji because I had to knock that "thumbs down" off the podium!

I frequently look back at my 2018 M3 after parking, usually to make sure its locked if I don't hear the beep, but any excuse will do. I ruled out getting a Model S in addition to my Model 3 last year, but recently I've been thinking of trading Prudence in for a Model S. Yesterday when I came out of the grocery store and it had lightly rained I approached my car with those beautiful orangey beads on the roof and said, nope...no way I'm trading in this car.

Yesterday morning, prior to a road trip, I was detailing my May-2018 build TM3 at one (of the two) wash bays in our heated underground parking garage.

My captive audience for that wash session was a driver of a one year old Toyota Rav 4; it was the first time he got to see a Tesla close up and in a controlled environment.

He thought the car was new, he said it was gorgeous, he accepted my offer of a test drive (as a pax) later this spring.

He asked how long I planned to hang onto it and as I tell everyone, until it is at least 10 years old…

 

[Usain]

Plus Tesla never pretended that 4680s were going to be quick and easy.

Maybe it's a good thing that 4680s turned out to be hard. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

 

[lafrisbee]

I think you're spot-on with your analysis, but a key driver will be when the state of Texas is covered in CyberTrucks as they're definitely not vegan democrats and a lot of folks down there think they're truckers (and some are). Wonder how long it will take before someone makes a gun rack for the CT?

I posted about Tesla vehicles and gun racks in Pick-ups.
I'll say it again because it is worth everyone's understanding just from it being about gun racks in Teslas.
The empty gun rack just signified that you'd be best to leave the vehicle and its contents alone. Sure, an empty gun rack means the guy has a gun, and it is not in the gun rack. And it might not be with him now. But the guy has a gun.
Teslas have just got five eyes...now more. And even if there is no gun rack, the owner can see and record you.

 

[lafrisbee]

This just summed up my junior high school years back in the mid 80's.

Long? Long Dong!!! Long Duck Dong...I knew that was you!

 

[Thekiwi]

Price drops on Model 3 & Y here in New Zealand:

Model 3 SR now $65,900 NZD ($57,300 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $36,100 USD)
Model Y SR now $70,900 NZD ($61,650 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $38,800 USD)

 

[navguy12]

Yep. Joy. Another buying opportunity. Great.

Well…because of a 10 minute lag getting cash transferred from one account into my non registered investment account being “recognized“ by my online banking system, I was only ready to buy another 300 at two minutes after the market closed.

So naturally I hope the buying opportunity still exists tomorrow morning.

 

[MC3OZ]

Maybe it's a good thing that 4680s turned out to be hard. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

Battery day always included the cathode plant and the lithium refinery. They are being built for a reason.

If there were major issues with 4680 production, they would not be building a new facility in Nevada.

People think there is a problem due to the 100 TWh by 2022 target, but that is a typical Elon timeline.

How does 4680 production compare to a typical ramp at a battery factory?

Currently BYD and CATL may be better at ramping new factories because they have had years to refine their approach.

By 2025 Tesla may catch up or pass BYD and CATL, at a minimum I expect the gap to close..

 

[Skryll]

Well…. There should be an actual penalty. But it just should be five or six digits long, not seven, eight or nine.

Potential solution:
Make penalty as high as needed for the company to feel it. Award most of the money to a foundation tasked with informing / educating about the issue. Award small amount to suing individual to compensate for legal fees, lost income etc, to take away the incentive to go through all that trouble for mediocre payout.

The hard part is of course who decides what foundation, and how to prevent corruption, i.e. not make it an incentive to encourage more law suits, not make it an incentive for lobbyists working the system to divert money etc.

 

[Ogre]

Battery day always included the cathode plant and the lithium refinery. They are being built for a reason.

If there were major issues with 4680 production, they would not be building a new facility in Nevada.

People think there is a problem due to the 100 TWh by 2022 target, but that is a typical Elon timeline.

How does 4680 production compare to a typical ramp at a battery factory?

Currently BYD and CATL may be better at ramping new factories because they have had years to refine their approach.

By 2025 Tesla may catch up or pass BYD and CATL, at a minimum I expect the gap to close..

People seem to forget or deliberately ignore.

Tesla was not in the battery business at all at the end of 2019. While they had a lab, they had no production nor had they even cut ground or as far as we know, built and assembly line. They had an ambition, a few patents, and some employees with knowledge of a big money saving idea.

The fact that they were able to get a cell production facility that's producing enough batteries for... 2,000? cars per week now? Is a big deal.

Chevy took more time than that just to figure out how to package up existing cells. Then only after investing billions into it for 3 years did they figure out that their process wasn't going to work and they are going to have to reboot again. They really screwed the pouch.

No existing battery makers are producing dry cell in volume yet, but Tesla has half of their batteries (maybe the whole thing?) on DBE now.

Like many of Tesla's accomplishments. Not fast enough for the critics, 10x too fast for the competition.

 

[JusRelax]

FSD Beta might be starting up soon in China (Based on reports from Caixin, whom I have no idea on their reputability):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643087192447918085

 

[JusRelax]

Sina.com has a report that Tesla's new lower-priced model is a smaller model Y, and Tesla has capacity plans of 4 million annually (1mil from China, 1mil from Berlin, 2mil from North America). I'm assuming most of the 2million in North America is from the Nueva Leon plant being built:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643097779529748481

Original Sina article:

特斯拉低价车型要来了，规划年产能400万辆

特斯拉低价车型要来了，规划年产能400万辆

finance.sina.com.cn

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla is having an 'earth day' photo contest for 3,500 credits in the Tesla App:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643050449057075200

 

[JusRelax]

Price drops on Model 3 & Y here in New Zealand:

Model 3 SR now $65,900 NZD ($57,300 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $36,100 USD)
Model Y SR now $70,900 NZD ($61,650 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $38,800 USD)

What were the prices before the cut?

 

[Singuy]

Maybe it's a good thing that 4680s turned out to be hard. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

I think the hardest part is the dry electrode and that provides the most significant breakthrough. I suspect Tesla is only sharing the wet 4680s with all their partners and keeping dry electrode inhouse. This is why initial tear down of the 4680s were all wet, and schematics were sent to their partners during that time.

 

[JusRelax]

Price drops on Model 3 & Y here in New Zealand:

Model 3 SR now $65,900 NZD ($57,300 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $36,100 USD)
Model Y SR now $70,900 NZD ($61,650 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $38,800 USD)

Looks like Model 3/Y price cuts in Australia too, reductions of about 4-5%:

New price cuts for 2023 Tesla Model 3 and Model Y electric cars in Australia

Prices have been slashed for the 2023 Tesla Model 3, while more modest price changes have been applied to the Model Y.

www.drive.com.au

 

[Chenkers]

Looks like Model 3/Y price cuts in Australia too, reductions of about 4-5%:

New price cuts for 2023 Tesla Model 3 and Model Y electric cars in Australia

Prices have been slashed for the 2023 Tesla Model 3, while more modest price changes have been applied to the Model Y.

www.drive.com.au

Plus the Model Y LR finally becomes available to order for the first time.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I was getting ready this week to do a full fsdb post in the beta threads. Not necessary after someone just crushed it. I just read a post, linked below, that made my all time favorite beta post. It is a long, but a highly accurate and funny post. The member who posted this has some writing skills. Enjoy if you are interested in beta progress and have 10 minutes to burn . Maybe show some Tmc spirit and give it a
like. We need more posts like his. People in those threads forget sometimes there are buttons.

Wiki - MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

Sorry if this is a duplicate, but at 379 pages, I confess to not reading every one. Anyway, freeway merging in 11.3.2 and 11.3.3 needs work. It uses the full length of the onramp and merge lane before actually entering the first traffic lane. It waits until the right line finally slants in...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[petit_bateau]

As point of reference, at 16 days of supply, Tesla matches their full year 2022 average.

View attachment 924576

I'm sorry but the 13d inventory was the end of Q4-2022 number, not the annual average. Here are the relevant numbers :

(Note : for completeness - as @Doggydogworld has pointed out to me, my #vehicles can be either high or low because Tesla reports an integer number of days. So the precise number of vehicles could be somewhere between 15.6d - 16.4d in the last quarter. The other way to keep track of this is with a running balance of net cumulative P vs D, but that too can lead to other errors. Anyway the trend is clear enough for now and as @Gigapress rightly points out this is fantastically different and better than any other mass market automaker.)

 

[JusRelax]

Plus the Model Y LR finally becomes available to order for the first time.

MY LR also now available in Japan:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643045981217497088

 

[Singuy]

Almost 1300 supercharger ports in 3 months. EA is at 60...60! Looks like Tesla is going to build the entire network in 3 years at this rate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643035593721651200