Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's been three full years since Tesla released a new product yet they've maintained a 50%/yr growth rate. The media and analysts seem to view this as a negative - even the ratings agencies ding them for it. Strange.

While Tesla does need to be judged differently, given its process of continuous improvement, currently the reason Tesla doesn't have a new product is because it's behind on its 4680 ramp and years late with multiple vehicles as a result.

 

[WattsHappening]

I think he's traumatised by the whole BoD thing, he might go Full Greg at this rate...

Good call.

It seems he is butt-hurt about the BoD slap down, not only from Tesla, but from the Tesla community. His bloated ego can't accept it and this may be his coping mechanism.

 

[GhostSkater]

Rear steering at work.

View attachment 924580View attachment 924581

Nah, that's the bad Tesla quality we hear time and time again

Can't even get alignment right on a prototype

(Do I need to add /s?)

 

[mongo]

While Tesla does need to be judged differently, given its process of continuous improvement, currently the reason Tesla doesn't have a new product is because it's behind on its 4680 ramp and years late with multiple vehicles as a result.

Hummm? Tesla is years late on new cars due to the 4680 ramp? You expected cells in cars before April 2021? Only one year into the Y ramp?

Battery Day was September 2020 and laid out a development plan that would take 3 years to fully realize the advantages. The $25k car was also estimated at 3 years out.

 

[JRP3]

Nah, that's the bad Tesla quality we hear time and time again

Can't even get alignment right on a prototype

Keef is salivating.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla to Pay $3.2M in US Race Bias Case to Black Ex-Worker, Jury Orders

Filed under: Government/Legal,Green,Tesla,Electric Continue reading Jury orders Tesla to pay $3.2 mln to Black ex-worker in US race bias case Jury orders Tesla to pay $3.2 mln to Black ex-worker in US…

www.globalvillagespace.com

Boy, his lawyer must feel dumb now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 924555

An Economist goes to see his doctor. He's got a feverish forehead, but his feet are freezing. Says he can't understand why he just doesn't feel good.

 

[Electroman]

So if the plaintiff was originally awarded $7M, but was greedy and wanted $160M, and now after the retrial that was reduced to $3.2M.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Nah, that's the bad Tesla quality we hear time and time again

Can't even get alignment right on a prototype

(Do I need to add /s?)

You mean……….

Whompy Wheels???!!!!

 

[cliff harris]

While Tesla does need to be judged differently, given its process of continuous improvement, currently the reason Tesla doesn't have a new product is because it's behind on its 4680 ramp and years late with multiple vehicles as a result.

I think this is a simplification. There was a global pandemic, and then the model Y turned out to be stratospherically popular. Given a choice between allocating resources to the next vehicle, or just churning out even more of a top-selling and stupidly profitable existing product, Tesla chose the latter, which makes sense.
Its not like the market for electric pick-up trucks and semi trucks has been taken over by anyone in the meantime. Sales of both the lightning and the rivian truck are pretty low.

Plus Tesla never pretended that 4680s were going to be quick and easy. They talked about a pretty long roadmap for it on battery day, IIRC?

 

[cliff harris]

I feel Tesla will need to pull another Q1 2022 type of quarter out of its hat at this point to really detach itself from macro's and regain its long term trend line that started when the stock finally broke out of that 5 year trading range 4 years ago.

I suspect there may be some big investors who are thinking of getting their toes wet with Tesla, who are a bit conservative, and may be looking at them now the credit ratings agencies have blessed them with their approval... ...but may be waiting for a post-cybertruck release environment to assess the company.

I think Tesla knows its market, and that the CT will sell VERY well, but this is not necessarily clear to everyone. Its a VERY different product, not just to other Tesla vehicles, but to every vehicle. Investors might be thinking "Its a truck, and Tesla buyers are not truckers. Tesla buyers are vegan democrats who only drive to whole foods and back. None of them are truckers'.
Not only that its a completely radical design, and may have engineering and reliability challenges. Its being made in a totally new way. I doubt the average fund manager knows a lot about gigacastings and model Y rear end casts. They probably see cyber-truck as having brand-risks, market-risks, and engineering-risks.

Once Tesla has shipped 10,000 Cybertrucks to happy customers, TSLA is noticeable de-risked. The release of the CT is both critical to the company's growth plans, and also a massive potential catalyst for the stock.
All IMHO

TL;DR: Q1 financials will be interesting, but cybetruck shipping will be the next big catalyst that breaks out of this trading range.

 

[Ogre]

2 Hummers is perfect, less batteries wasted.

I think I have GMs strategy figured out. They plan on releasing 30 new EVs. But only producing one at any give time.

Hummer got its moment in the sun from Jan - Sept last year. 4Q 2022 and 1Q 2023 were the moment for the LRyiq.

Spring is the Silverado, Summer will be the Blazer, Fall Equinox…. Winter? Not sure.

Just keep passing that baton so you can play up the launches GM.

 

[wipster]

<snip>
I think Tesla knows its market, and that the CT will sell VERY well, but this is not necessarily clear to everyone. Its a VERY different product, not just to other Tesla vehicles, but to every vehicle. Investors might be thinking "Its a truck, and Tesla buyers are not truckers. Tesla buyers are vegan democrats who only drive to whole foods and back. None of them are truckers'.

<snip>

Once Tesla has shipped 10,000 Cybertrucks to happy customers, TSLA is noticeable de-risked. The release of the CT is both critical to the company's growth plans, and also a massive potential catalyst for the stock.
All IMHO

TL;DR: Q1 financials will be interesting, but cybetruck shipping will be the next big catalyst that breaks out of this trading range.

I think you're spot-on with your analysis, but a key driver will be when the state of Texas is covered in CyberTrucks as they're definitely not vegan democrats and a lot of folks down there think they're truckers (and some are). Wonder how long it will take before someone makes a gun rack for the CT?

 

[insaneoctane]

Why doesn't any competent bank just fire anyone who, at the end of a year, is in the bottom 25% of tipranks? It seems obvious that the ONLY reason not to do so, would be blatant corruption. Oooooh, I think I answered my own question!

New way to view the scale:

           Successful Tipranks score
0%        25%        50%        75%       100%
[=========][=========][=========][=========]
100%      75%        50%        25%        0%
             Manipulation scale

 

[insaneoctane]

It's all a crapshoot for $TSLA. Could go either direction, just like today. Is a 6.5% drop in SP justified after 'beating' delivery numbers? Media spun it negatively and algo's picked it up and weak hands panicked as usual.

Yep. Joy. Another buying opportunity. Great.

 

[Mengy]

I feel Tesla will need to pull another Q1 2022 type of quarter out of its hat at this point to really detach itself from macro's and regain its long term trend line that started when the stock finally broke out of that 5 year trading range 4 years ago.

If Tesla can somehow pull off zero margin hit from the price cuts and expand on operating margin from Q4 from a combination of reduced COGS, actual real time sales matching ASP, and tailwind benefits of Berlin/Austin hitting mass volume scale....then yeah I can see Q1 earnings being a major breakout point.

It's really in Tesla's corner at this point. If there does end up being a material margin hit from the price cuts, then I feel we're looking at all of 2023 TSLA being range bound between say 150 and 250/300.

This is what I've been saying for a year now, I think we'll be range bound under $300 in 2023. Between macro pressures, a weak economy, and WS keeping the stock down on purpose, plus a lack of new buyer volume to regain control of the stock over MM's, I just don't see how TSLA breaks out on it's own.

If our PE stays around 50 and TSLA margins compress a bit this year due to the price cuts, then I really think we'll end the year under $300 even given 1.8+ million cars delivered. Which sounds kind of crazy, but the financial napkin math is sound with net income of around $20 billion. If our PE walks up some then TSLA could go well over $300 of course.

Tesla Energy is the true wildcard. If Megapack sales go into extreme overdrive in 2023 it could really push earnings higher than anyone on WS expects. Q1 on the 19th should be a decent indicator whether or not this possibility has any merit.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So if the plaintiff was originally awarded $7M, but was greedy and wanted $160M, and now after the retrial that was reduced to $3.2M.

They awarded him $7M in emotional distress and $130M in punitive. Judge agreed but cut total settlement to $15M because award was excessive. His lawyer probably said "Hey look, we can go to trial again and i guarantee we get way more than this $15M settlement!"

 

[M|S|M MYP]

They awarded him $7M in emotional distress and $130M in punitive. Judge agreed but cut total settlement to $15M because award was excessive. His lawyer probably said "Hey look, we can go to trial again and i guarantee we get way more than this $15M settlement!"


View attachment 924613

So after lawyer fees (my guess - $800k), he's left with $2.4M. This is taxable income because it is not a physical injury settlement ~ 32% for federal, don't know about state. He is probably walking away with $1.3M give or take. I guess on the bright side, not too shabby for 'working' at the tesla factory for only 9 months

 

[Unpilot]

Note: Nothing in the foregoing is investment advice as referred to in US SIC code 6282, the UK FCA article 4(1)(4) of MiFID or other regulations since I am not in any way employed as an investment advisor nor certified as such in any jurisdiction.

And if you were all those things, you would not recommend going in on TSLA to any extent.

 

[unk45]

And if you were all those things, you would not recommend going in on TSLA to any extent.

Excellent point! I hadn’t thought about that.