he probably works for GM ... just driving a Tesla waiting for a compelling GM EV to arrive .... he will be waiting a while
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Ford sales. 10.8K sales of EV's. Interesting that Mach E was down 20% Y/Y. They say due to a plant shutdown but there is almost 1 quarter of inventory at 4.6K of vehicles. I think really hurt by the Model Y price reductions.
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Most of your post is reasonable.
There remains a point that nearly all of us ignore.
That is, in academic marketing terms, distribution. Because Tesla differs from every other OEM in the core distribution features, most obviously absence of dealers but also obviously by providing after sale 'refueling' in every geographic area where their vehicles are sold. No other OEM has anything like that.
Because of the core distribution strategy Tesla does not have a comprehensive sales network. To clarify what is, perhaps, glaringly obvious, Tesla establishes Supercharger availability PRIOR to opening stores. Just think about that when assuming that their primary sales lever is price. It is NOT. The primary lever is Supercharger expansion coupled with subsequent store and service center opening. That means vast areas in established core markets, quintessentially California, are absent nearby Tesla stores as are many areas in nearly every large country where Tesla is already sold. Further, there are many significant car markets in which Tesla is not present. Just to make certain we all understand Tesla does not presently sell in South America, Africa, the Subcontinent, Saudi Arabia, Oman and so on. Even Greece and Turkey hahave a single pop-up style store without much Supercharger buildout. Morocco and Bulgaria, uniquely, have Superchargers but no store.
This longish list is to illustrate that Tesla's primary demand lever is distribution, which is limited mostly by the torrid pace of Supercharger expansion, with Service Centers next and stores last in terms of complexity. Factually price is, for Tesla, a tactical timing lever in most cases. In longer term more varied and lower priced cars will accelerate accessibility and volumes, as will Cybertruck and other vehicles.
Price, as Tesla keeps telling us, will be reduced for every given model as costs reduce and as manufacturing and materials permit. Nearly all the analysts seem to think price is the only factor and that reducing price indicates lack of demand. As Elon and Tesla repeatedly say (duly ignored by most of us and almost all analysts) prices will rise and lower as costs do, and demand will, from time to time, move earlier or later with price and supply.
In short Price is one tool, NOT the primary one.
In the next year or two, nearly all those missing markets will open, and coverage within existing markets will deepen. Those two will ensure continuing expansion of sales in existing markets and now ones too.
In the meantime, every one of us should know by now that Tesla's exceedingly rigorous cost controls, nearly unique financial management excellence and product improvements are all contributing to increased ability to maintain margins well above any OEM with the single exception of RACE, and we all might consider Ferrari as smaller than a major OEM and a unique cases. FWIW, only RACE and TSLA manage inventory DOH so exceedingly well.
What those two do share is the ability to have a nearly unique cash conversion cycle, which means they actually have increased cash flow as they grow more quickly.
Summary: check cash before price. Cash is, as they say, King! Tesla is really in superb shape.
Agonizing on quarterly sales is quite misleading at best. Agonizing on Q on Q is itself terminally ignorant because of vehicle sales extreme seasonality, if one wants to look at all Y on Y is better. Free Cash Flow is the one that really counts!
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If Tesla wished to do so, it could probably have this award reduced. Apparently it was $200k in damages, $3 million in punitive. The punitive portion probably would be reduced by a judge as out of proportion to the damages. But it appears that Tesla won't appeal.
Tesla to Pay $3.2M in US Race Bias Case to Black Ex-Worker, Jury Orders
Filed under: Government/Legal,Green,Tesla,Electric Continue reading Jury orders Tesla to pay $3.2 mln to Black ex-worker in US race bias case Jury orders Tesla to pay $3.2 mln to Black ex-worker in US…www.globalvillagespace.com
Boy, his lawyer must feel dumb now.
Edit: It was $175k in damages, so I guess they could probably have the punitive portion reduced to at most $1.75 million.
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i guess not at all surprising considering losses per unit disclosed by Ford ... the innovators dilemma is in full force now ... the high end ICE SUV and pickups are all that is left for OEMs ... hence they will redouble effort to their one or two profitable segments .... once these segments run dry ... bankruptcy is next step...this is going to be very difficult to make transition to EV ...
petit_bateau
Active Member
I'm sorry because I think you are reading the slide deck incorrectly. I don't see how I can be reading it that incorrectly given that we know the quarterly inventory numbers.
However I'm not concerned about the inventory. Really it seems fine by me.
For simplicity using the arithmetic mean of the #d inventory at EOQ one gets (3+4+8+13)/4 = 7 days average inventory throughout the year. So Tesla started the year with about 3d of inventory; finished the year with 13d of inventory; and averaged 7d of inventory across the year. You can get slightly different numbers if you use #vehicles (either using the numbers above, or using the cumulative P/D numbers), but not that different.
Now strictly speaking these were last day of quarter inventories. Quite what the inventory levels were during the quarter we have little insight into. Going forwards however the in-quarter inventory will (should) be very similar to the end of quarter inventory. Provided that stays low-ish (at whatever is optimal) that is fine by me. Anything less than 20 would be outstanding.
I propose handling Reuters as proof of concept.
Thinking FSD China pumps up the margins as Tesla drops vehicle pricing. Think Printer market - yes it's an old analogy, but China is huge. They turn on that switch and BAM! instant cashflow increase (as @unk45 clearly points out) with more countries and markets to follow. It's a step function, a light switch.
Definitely there are further catalysts, though I might not expect to see any sales/revenue recognized for the Semi until that dedicated Nevada facility is up and running at volume.well maybeBut also a lot of growth should come from cybertruck and semi. Tesla is about to enter two completely new market segments. They could grow total revenue by 50% without having to make cheaper model 3s and Ys. Especially if you factor in:
I know Tesla are always looking many years ahead, so are sensibly looking at cost reductions, but they can get to their 50% growth just by market expansion in the short, maybe even medium term.
- Supercharging revenue from 3rd parties
- Tesla Energy revenue
- Better FSD recognition plus better takeup due to improved features
Consensus for the year on the S/3/X/Y lineup is continuing increased deliveries through to Q1 and 1.8m-2m total for the year, 10-13k being Cybertruck. So to move those increasing volumes, it would stand to reason that prices will need to head lower but with other factors to consider like the interest rate environment for the year (rate cuts would probably support higher prices) and changes to tax incentives / subsidies.
larmor
Active Member
The market makers have all ready written the headlines for Q1 revenue, but costs have improved for tesla so I don't foresee any material change in profits.
FSDtester#1
Large Member
Um, you didn't know the mods are really Chat GPT?Maybe ChatGPT has become conscious and decided to join the forum because Tesla has logically won the decade?
Welcome ChatGPT!
The chap obviously has a well tuned moral compass.
Presumably he will be considering Volkswagens next..............................
FSDtester#1
Large Member
You aren't referring to the wide rollout of the Hummer are you?
Wall Street consensus was 1 delivery, they doubled that and had 2.
Bullish for GM???
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
3-LR uses the same number battery cells as the Y-LR but sells for about $5K less, based on ASP with options (you can't buy a 7-seater Model 3, or get a tow hitch in N.America). It makes sense to prioritize the high-margin deliveries. I do expect a revival of the 2170-based 3-SR+ if that's what it takes for U.S. customers to continue to benefit from IRA rebates, and at 2/3rds the size of an LR pack this is also an efficient use of 2170 cells.
I'd like to see an offer for a free 30-day trial of FSD beta to increase awareness, followed up with a 3-mth (or maybe 1-yr?) discount on an FSD software lease bundle. This is where the margins live.
That happens and the stock will take off like a falcon 9.
It is interesting to look at that Ford Q1 report. If, as we often state on this forum, there is no "EV market", only a "vehicle market", then Ford's growth of 10.1% year over year looks healthy. But I agree, digging into the details, they appear to be fleeing into the ultra-big, high-end products like the Bronco. One fears for their livelihood when Cybertruck is released or the next round of OPEC+ cuts crank US dino-juice prices up again.
That said, I find their E-transit vans growth percentage (67%) exciting, although the volume is tiny (some 1100 units).
Many have mentioned Ford's big EV factory push. Jury still out if they will make it as those complete, then ramp up to volumes worth discussing.
Tesla Brand Value...
Where is the Brand Damage???
Source Page...
brandirectory.com
Where is the Brand Damage???
Source Page...
Automotive Industry 2023 | Brand Value Ranking League Table | Brandirectory
The annual report on the most valuable and strongest automobile, auto component, tyre & car rental services brands
brandirectory.com
What really upsets me in this case is, there are hundreds of people who were wrongly incarcerated and later released after serving harsh sentence in a maximum security prison where prisoners are treated like dogs by both the authorities and by other incarcerated criminals. When they get acquitted and released after a few years or in some cases after a decade or two, they don't get awarded this much.
But this $135M the jury initially awarded for name calling is a huge travesty. All this after the company took action and fired the perpetrators.... and get this... the victim even encouraged his son to join Tesla. If he is so emotionally scared, would he recommend his son to join Tesla?
looking like hitting 150,000 run rate on the Lightning by year and is pretty unlikely as well.
Even accounting for shut downs Ford’s run rate is not significantly different from last year. they need more than six times last year’s production to hit that goal and they’ve made pretty much zero progress this quarter.
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I am going to award you the Comedy King of TMC. !!
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