Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tes La Ferrari]

Price cuts are not just a Tesla specific thing. Tesla is just more upfront and transparent.

Looks like Mercedes is offering at least $18k Canadian discounts on their GLE 63, ( their version of a model X ) and this is before you start negotiating with the dealer.

They still can’t sell their 2022 models!! I think they might have a demand problem. Where’s Gojo calling MBZ a busted growth story?

 

[UkNorthampton]

M3LRs are now € 49 to 51k +1k for delivery, which we don't know if included or not in LR RWD mentioned price.

edit: Belgium seems to have higher prices, so maybe comparing to 53k is logical...

Ok thanks, going from a list that had a few European prices in it, wasn't sure if up to date even though it claimed to be. Germany seemed highest, but unsure of any subsidies etc (which again could be different for fleets/company cars)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

15k@6% interest is 290/month in monthly payment. I rather people buy FSD vs subscription. Honestly 149, 99, or whatever it cost per month unless it's 30 bucks IMO is a hard sell for a software to play around with as the utility of FSD is not yet there. This is why it's difficult for people to keep subscribing after that one frustrating drive, the initial newness wears off, or they find themselves barely using it as it's too much trouble than it's worth. Buying it up front = they are married to it in sickness and in health.

Breaking down the math of making the $15k up front payment is definitely not what the average consumer does. They look at the sticker price and think "No way in hell". It's the far more common human reaction verses someone actually breaking down the math. Hell we still see this mentality with EV's verses gas cars when it comes to sticker price and the actual true cost of ownership. Even then, 15k@6% for a 290/monthly payment is way more monthly than if it were say $99/month $149/month and I think would actually be a determent from a consumer getting FSD at all.

As for a monthly subscription price, sorry but I very much disagree. FSD monthly rate at $99/month isn't even more than what other auto makers charge for silly premium features. Also, while again FSD is not perfect by any means, it has definitely progressed past the point of "too much trouble than it's worth". Sure there a few FSD testers that seem for whatever reason to have absolutely terrible times with FSD, but the vast majority of FSD are reporting enough functionality and reliability out of FSD for it to be worth it.

 

[Singuy]

Breaking down the math of making the $15k up front payment is definitely not what the average consumer does. They look at the sticker price and think "No way in hell". It's the far more common human reaction verses someone actually breaking down the math. Hell we still see this mentality with EV's verses gas cars when it comes to sticker price and the actual true cost of ownership. Even then, 15k@6% for a 290/monthly payment is way more monthly than if it were say $99/month $149/month and I think would actually be a determent from a consumer getting FSD at all.

As for a monthly subscription price, sorry but I very much disagree. FSD monthly rate at $99/month isn't even more than what other auto makers charge for silly premium features. Also, while again FSD is not perfect by any means, it has definitely progressed past the point of "too much trouble than it's worth". Sure there a few FSD testers that seem for whatever reason to have absolutely terrible times with FSD, but the vast majority of FSD are reporting enough functionality and reliability out of FSD for it to be worth it.

Well you are looking for mass adoption, not niche adoption. Most people don't pay hundreds of dollars in sub fees for their car. Those are luxury options for people who live less on a budget. I don't know, maybe it's just me. I couldn't see myself paying hundreds a month for years on end. I'm more in the camp of paying 15k one and done. Then again I'm also the type who paid off the house in 7 years because I hate paying interest.

As for more trouble than it's worth...this absolutely happens with FSD just due to the map data. It sometimes navigate you through weird neighborhoods or not taking some of the new roads into account. It's not even a matter of disengagement but just wanting to take the shortest or most sensible route have me disable FSD. I live in an ever expanding city/state due to mass migration so it's a thing here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon was in a following spree today, started following half a dozen of Tesla-related Twitter influencers.
So not only Rob.

Interesting move! These are the folks most likely to get the next interview w. Elon (and NOT the BBC, or Kara Swisher). A sample from: ELON ALERTS (@elon_alerts) / Twitter

• Elon Musk is now following Engineering Insider ( @EngineeringInsd ) / Twitter
• Elon Musk is now following Gali ( @Gfilche )
• Elon Musk is now following Alex ( @alex_avoigt )
• Elon Musk is now following Dave Lee (@heydave7)
• Elon Musk is now following James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough)
• Elon Musk is now following Rob Maurer ( @TeslaPodcast )
• Elon Musk is now following Sawyer Merritt ( @sawyermerritt )
• Elon Musk is now following Farzad Mesbahi ( @farzyness )

Elon is encouraging influencers to enable 'subscriptions' so they can earn money promoting Tesla doing what they love (and would do full-time for free if they could afford it).

Advertizing? Ducks. Marketing? Drakes!

Drake No/Yes Meme Generator - Imgflip (roll ur own!)​

Cheers to the Influencers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In other news, YAY SPACEX!!

SpaceX cleared by FAA to launch first orbital Starship flight

SpaceX aims to launch Starship as soon as Monday from its private facility in Texas along the Gulf Coast.

www.cnbc.com

 

[dhanson865]

The 3 and Y are still premium cars with many features and comforts that could be removed or modified for a more affordable Gen 3 vehicle. For example:

• Seats
  • Cloth upholstery instead of premium leatherette
  • No seat warmers
  • Simpler stitching pattern
  • Manual position adjustment instead of motors
• Powertrain
  • Smaller motor with less than 208 kW of power
  • Simpler, less capable suspension
• Traditional sheet metal roof instead of glass
• Wheels: 17 inches instead of 18
• Sound system: basic instead of 14 premium speakers
• Side mirrors that don't have motors for folding in and out (or no mirrors at all)
• Basic rearview mirror instead of electrochromic mirror (or no mirror at all)
• Manual steering column adjustment instead of motorized
• Smaller console screen

I guess these changes could cut a few thousand bucks from the cost.

• Seats
  • Cloth upholstery instead of premium leatherette
  • No seat warmers
  • Simpler stitching pattern
  • Manual position adjustment instead of motors

Tesla hasn't been in favor of multiple interior trims in the past. If they depart from that on the mass market uboxed car I'd be fine with cloth vs premium as an option.

• Powertrain
  • Smaller motor with less than 208 kW of power
  • Simpler, less capable suspension

I could see a smaller / lower power motor. I'm not sure the suspension needs to change.

• Traditional sheet metal roof instead of glass

If the unboxed method pushes for that go for it, if not keep the glass. I don't think that's a change that has to happen unless the unboxed method tips the scales.

• Wheels: 17 inches instead of 18

I'm fine with even 16" wheels. No need for gaudy high priced wheels on a mass market car. Get the costs down. Go 16".

• Sound system: basic instead of 14 premium speakers

Maybe cut 2 or 4 positions but no reason to cut the quality of the actual components.

• Side mirrors that don't have motors for folding in and out (or no mirrors at all)

OK, if it's a narrower car, don't fold the mirrors, if possible shrink them or remove them.

• Basic rearview mirror instead of electrochromic mirror (or no mirror at all)

If it's a sedan not having an autodimming mirror is turning into a torture device for all the people that drive in front of SUVs, Pickups, Yukahoes, Cybertrucks.

• Manual steering column adjustment instead of motorized

OK, no objection there.

• Smaller console screen

If this is a FSD capable vehicle that would be a mistake. Both for FSD visualizations and entertainment the existing screen size or larger is a good thing.

 

[CHGolferJim]

One hour drive to the autobahns from here... although the stretch from north of Hamburg to Danish border is my favourite, which is quite a bit further - 300km and not too busy once you get out of Hamburg suburbs. Excellent Porsche-taunting territory!

I would buy a ticket to watch that, lol.
Next time I’m across the pond………..

 

[Skryll]

[...]
Elon is encouraging influencers to enable 'subscriptions' so they can earn money promoting Tesla doing what they love (and would do full-time for free if they could afford it).

[...]

Cheers to the Influencers!

encouraging content to hide behind a paywall nyt style is not necessarily spreading the word is it

 

[Artful Dodger]

(hedge funds & market makers) with the ability to temporarily manipulate the TSLA share price.

U keep using that word...

Cheers!

 

[betstarship]

In other news, YAY SPACEX!!

SpaceX cleared by FAA to launch first orbital Starship flight

SpaceX aims to launch Starship as soon as Monday from its private facility in Texas along the Gulf Coast.

www.cnbc.com

Is it known what the payload is they're launching with this inaugural flight?!

Im giddy.

 

[khill]

What have Tesla done already is unprecedented. They have surpassed BMW in US luxury car sales in 2022 by 130k and almost DOUBLED Mercedes US volume. This is on the back of pretty much two car models vs like 10+ from the other company's.

Now Tesla is guiding for Honda total US sales(over 900k) in 2023. Tesla haven't lowered their ASP to Honda levels, not anywhere close. However at almost double the ASP, they are planning on pushing out mass market numbers again with 2 car models.

So it's not a matter of running out of people who can afford 50k cars. ICE is still competition, and you saw that only a little over 50% of the people are willing to buy EVs. Then you add the fact that Tesla doesn't provide enough micro product segmentation because they have like 2 cars for people to consider. So yeah, they are running out of people at this stage even though they wildly outperformed against anyone's expectations. Name another car company that is selling almost half a million cars per quarter with an ASP of 50k using only 2 car models...like no one ever in the history of automobile.

What Tesla has accomplished is astonishing. There is no debate on that. Below is the data for BMW, and Mercedes over the last few years - they are able to keep their sales volume intact. Can you explain why their sales didn’t collapse despite the Model coming in 2018 and Model Y in 2020? My point is that this is because the people outside of the Tesla Twitter don’t know that a Tesla is far far far superior both in terms of technology as well aa overall value.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Ok thanks, going from a list that had a few European prices in it, wasn't sure if up to date even though it claimed to be. Germany seemed highest, but unsure of any subsidies etc (which again could be different for fleets/company cars)

After some more research, I think the comparison is

M3LR €49,990-50,990 - configurator. When I looked at German inventory it seemed higher at 51.970 (destination/delivery fee?)
M3LR Single Motor/Fleet €47,990

Unsure if includes any fees/subsidies or other price modifiers, so 2-3000 euros cheaper

 

[Artful Dodger]

encouraging content to hide behind a paywall nyt style is not necessarily spreading the word is it

Any different than releasing "estimates" to paid Patreon subscribers for a fee a week before putting the stale info on twitter? Yes, I think it's an improvement.

As SCOTUS informed us "Money is Speech". This appears to be the world we live in. Elon's trying to make it work better for everyone. As it sits now, only the purveyors of FUD are highly paid.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What Tesla has accomplished is astonishing. There is no debate on that. Below is the data for BMW, and Mercedes over the last few years - they are able to keep their sales volume intact. Can you explain why their sales didn’t collapse despite the Model coming in 2018 and Model Y in 2020? My point is that this is because the people outside of the Tesla Twitter don’t know that a Tesla is far far far superior both in terms of technology as well aa overall value.

They are able to keep their sales volume intact because of brand loyalty. How many people do you know buy/lease a Mercedes/bmw and when their lease is up, just turn it in for a newer model? or when it gets old enough or breaks down turn it in for a new one. I know several and they will never change.

 

[dhanson865]

Is it known what the payload is they're launching with this inaugural flight?!

Im giddy.

no payload on the first "orbital" launch, it's just a test of the launch and hopefully landings.

Note on "orbital" it will have orbital velocity at maximum altitude but with a perigee inside the earths atmosphere. It won't do a full orbit, It'll hit the atmosphere and slow before a full orbit is done. (thats from Texas going East until its near Hawaii and a dunk in the ocean if all goes well)

If it leaves the pad the first 9 minutes or so will be very worth watching. Add an extra hour and 15 minutes or so to see the grand finale (if it makes it that far).

00:00:55	Max Q (Moment of Peak Mechanical Stress on the Rocket)
00:02:49	Booster Main Engine Cutoff
00:02:52	Stage Separation
00:02:57	Starship Ignition
00:03:11	Booster Boostback Burn Startup
00:04:06	Booster Boostback Burn Shutdown
00:07:32	Booster is Transonic
00:07:40	Booster Landing Burn Startup
00:08:03	Booster Landing Burn Shutdown
00:09:20	Starship Engine Cutoff
01:17:21	Starship Entry
01:28:43	Starship is Transonic
01:30:00	Starship Splashdown

 

[dhanson865]

Random smart thing your Tesla can tell you without you getting out of the drivers seat.

>Your Tesla calculates a long-term average difference between front & rear axle wheel speeds & uses this to model a difference in tread depth between the axles—alerting you if it estimates significantly less tread depth on the rear vs front

https://twitter.com/x/status/1646962069726547975

 

[dhanson865]

No payload. This is a suborbital flight, terminating in the Pacific offshore of Hawaii.

It's technically an orbital flight with the perigee inside the atmosphere. They are going to give it the same delta V it takes to get into a stable orbit above the atmosphere but aim it differently so it comes back into the atmosphere just before a full round trip occurs.

Much harder than normal flights that are termed "suborbital", it will have a higher maximum altitude than those sorts of flights.

 

[Thekiwi]

AI is critical to Tesla‘s future for FSD & Optimus (plus whatever else is in the pipeline), therefore I am a little unsure as to what to make of Elon ramping up AI efforts at not one, but two other companies instead of Tesla:

1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1647000769969946626

2.

Elon Musk Buys Thousands of GPUs for Twitter's Generative AI Project

Twitter is reportedly building a ChatGPT rival.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[Drumheller]

AI is critical to Tesla‘s future for FSD & Optimus (plus whatever else is in the pipeline), therefore I am a little unsure as to what to make of Elon ramping up AI efforts at not one, but two other companies instead of Tesla:

1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1647000769969946626

2.

Elon Musk Buys Thousands of GPUs for Twitter's Generative AI Project

Twitter is reportedly building a ChatGPT rival.

www.tomshardware.com

A.I. is an arms race. Elon is pushing to increase the odds of humanity being ok with A.I. Exponential growth means self aware machines could be here much sooner than most people think.

X.AI is programmer notation. What follows the period is related to what is prior to the period in an ownership. This is Elon's A.I. company that will be part of his X umbrella of companies.