Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I'm still hoping Tesla decides to do away with the ability to buy FSD and switch every new order to the monthly subscription model.

The problem with that is that people's income isn't fixed. I certainly don't want a $200+/month bill hanging over my head or lose functionality. Buy once cry once.

 

[mongo]

It's technically an orbital flight with the perigee inside the atmosphere. They are going to give it the same delta V it takes to get into a stable orbit above the atmosphere but aim it differently so it comes back into the atmosphere just before a full round trip occurs.

Much harder than normal flights that are termed "suborbital", it will have a higher maximum altitude than those sorts of flights.

Even better than technically orbital, it's legally orbital (by being not suborbital). Perigee > 10km clears the Earth's surface regardless of where it occurs.

(24)
unless and until regulations take effect under section 50922(c)(2), “suborbital rocket” means a vehicle, rocket-propelled in whole or in part, intended for flight on a suborbital trajectory, and the thrust of which is greater than its lift for the majority of the rocket-powered portion of its ascent.

(25)
“suborbital trajectory” means the intentional flight path of a launch vehicle, reentry vehicle, or any portion thereof, whose vacuum instantaneous impact point does not leave the surface of the Earth.

51 U.S. Code § 50902 - Definitions

 

[Congo Line]

It will certainly be interesting to see when the average person feels like it is "good enough" to spend money on (based on maybe driving in a friends car with it etc). Right now I would be pretty astonished to see the take rate increase much as overall it doesn't work well for the average driver. Clearly it can depend on where you live perhaps, but it's not really super usable for general city-driving other than as a novelty.

A lot of Youtubers definitely show "good" drives. For example I drive in the same city as DirtyTesla, and I could easily provide a route within blocks of where he drives in which the car cannot function correctly and will require intervention after intervention. These are not super weird back streets or anything, they are ones I travel for regular trips to stores and around town and so forth, and the car frankly just is not capable of driving in a sensible fashion yet. To be clear I am not trying to say FSD Beta is "bad" or anything, and it certainly improves over time, but while I enjoy watching it evolve, it is very far from being a hands-off drive-anywhere-around-town type experience.

I should add that I'm not trying to say someone like DirtyTesla is only intentionally showing good drives, just that a given route a block away from another can be the difference between apparent 100% success and 100% failure.

So then I'm curious to know, have you tried FSD on the routes that DirtyTesla drives, and if so does it function as well as it does for him? Wondering if there is a training effect from his driving same route so many times and giving feedback.

 

[jerry33]

• Seats
  • Cloth upholstery instead of premium leatherette
  • No seat warmers
  • Simpler stitching pattern
  • Manual position adjustment instead of motors

Tesla hasn't been in favor of multiple interior trims in the past. If they depart from that on the mass market uboxed car I'd be fine with cloth vs premium as an option.

• Powertrain
  • Smaller motor with less than 208 kW of power
  • Simpler, less capable suspension

I could see a smaller / lower power motor. I'm not sure the suspension needs to change.

• Traditional sheet metal roof instead of glass

If the unboxed method pushes for that go for it, if not keep the glass. I don't think that's a change that has to happen unless the unboxed method tips the scales.

• Wheels: 17 inches instead of 18

I'm fine with even 16" wheels. No need for gaudy high priced wheels on a mass market car. Get the costs down. Go 16".

• Sound system: basic instead of 14 premium speakers

Maybe cut 2 or 4 positions but no reason to cut the quality of the actual components.

• Side mirrors that don't have motors for folding in and out (or no mirrors at all)

OK, if it's a narrower car, don't fold the mirrors, if possible shrink them or remove them.

• Basic rearview mirror instead of electrochromic mirror (or no mirror at all)

If it's a sedan not having an autodimming mirror is turning into a torture device for all the people that drive in front of SUVs, Pickups, Yukahoes, Cybertrucks.

• Manual steering column adjustment instead of motorized

OK, no objection there.

• Smaller console screen

If this is a FSD capable vehicle that would be a mistake. Both for FSD visualizations and entertainment the existing screen size or larger is a good thing.

Those things would certainly reduce cost--but at what price? Doing those things would take away from Tesla's panache and is typical bean-counter thinking. My bet is on finding ways to provide the same functionality but at a lower cost. "If you buy oats, you go to the feed store and buy quality oats. However the oats are much cheaper after they've been through the horse."

 

[y_naught]

15k@6% interest is 290/month in monthly payment. I rather people buy FSD vs subscription. Honestly 149, 99, or whatever it cost per month unless it's 30 bucks IMO is a hard sell for a software to play around with as the utility of FSD is not yet there. This is why it's difficult for people to keep subscribing after that one frustrating drive, the initial newness wears off, or they find themselves barely using it as it's too much trouble than it's worth. Buying it up front = they are married to it in sickness and in health.

I think the way to get around this is to offer some value for sticking with it. For example, if the subscription price was $99/month today, for the life of your subscription, you might stick with instead of cancel and wait, at which point it might be $149. Like the full price, early adopters receive lower prices for life.

 

[mongo]

Those things would certainly reduce cost--but at what price? Doing those things would take away from Tesla's panache and is typical bean-counter thinking. My bet is on finding ways to provide the same functionality but at a lower cost. "If you buy oats, you go to the feed store and buy quality oats. However the oats are much cheaper after they've been through the horse."

This chain was in response to my post where I asked, "where could Tesla cut costs?" and @Gigapress gave a great list of possibilities. I think they are things we might see in the next generation platform, but maybe not on a 3.

 

[Singuy]

So then I'm curious to know, have you tried FSD on the routes that DirtyTesla drives, and if so does it function as well as it does for him? Wondering if there is a training effect from his driving same route so many times and giving feedback.

Dirty Tesla now takes suggestions from the comment sections or just allow FSD to pick random places so people are not thinking he is only picking routes that work.

 

[Ogre]

The problem with that is that people's income isn't fixed. I certainly don't want a $200+/month bill hanging over my head or lose functionality. Buy once cry once.

I usually feel that way too, but if I'd bought FSD 2 years ago when I bought my car, I'd be crying every time I made a car payment. Of course if I buy it now its $5,000 more, but then in 2-3 years by the time FSD does what I really want it for (drive while I nap), I might want a new car.

It's a weird bargain you make when you buy FSD.

 

[y_naught]

The problem with that is that people's income isn't fixed. I certainly don't want a $200+/month bill hanging over my head or lose functionality. Buy once cry once.

You also could “buy once” by putting $15k into a money market account and withdrawing the subscription every month. Especially if it didn’t increase for your ownership of the car!

 

[jerry33]

You also could “buy once” by putting $15k into a money market account and withdrawing the subscription every month. Especially if it didn’t increase for your ownership of the car!

You could, but I've found that never actually works as life tends to intervene.

 

[Singuy]

What Tesla has accomplished is astonishing. There is no debate on that. Below is the data for BMW, and Mercedes over the last few years - they are able to keep their sales volume intact. Can you explain why their sales didn’t collapse despite the Model coming in 2018 and Model Y in 2020? My point is that this is because the people outside of the Tesla Twitter don’t know that a Tesla is far far far superior both in terms of technology as well aa overall value.

2023 will the interesting year to see. Tesla only accounts for what, 4-5% of total cars sales in the US and we know they are taking marketshare from all the automakers. In 2022 Tesla's prices were astronomical with long lead times which help damper the effect of the shares they took from Mercedes and BMW. We know that in China they are hurting badly. So 2023 will most likely be the game changer for these companies as Tesla dumps 800-900k of M/Y on the streets.

 

[EVNow]

… then in 2-3 years by the time FSD does what I really want it for (drive while I nap), ?..

LOL.

 

[Gigapress]

Interesting move! These are the folks most likely to get the next interview w. Elon (and NOT the BBC, or Kara Swisher). A sample from: ELON ALERTS (@elon_alerts) / Twitter

• Elon Musk is now following Engineering Insider ( @EngineeringInsd ) / Twitter
• Elon Musk is now following Gali ( @Gfilche )
• Elon Musk is now following Alex ( @alex_avoigt )
• Elon Musk is now following Dave Lee (@heydave7)
• Elon Musk is now following James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough)
• Elon Musk is now following Rob Maurer ( @TeslaPodcast )
• Elon Musk is now following Sawyer Merritt ( @sawyermerritt )
• Elon Musk is now following Farzad Mesbahi ( @farzyness )

Several TMC investor forum members on this list.

• Alex Voigt — @avoigt has been here since 2017.
• Dave Lee @DaveT — No longer active on TMC but legendary former member whose megapost thread were a huge factor in my early TSLA research five years ago. They’re still a great read today.
  • Articles/megaposts by DaveT
• Farzad Mesbahi @farzyness — No longer active since 2022 but started gaining interest in Tesla here on TMC back in 2013 before working there and going to YouTube
• Rob Maurer — Has not disclosed his account username as far as I know, but in one of the earliest Tesla Daily podcast episodes from 2017 he interviewed @DaveT and said he’d found Dave here and said the TMC investor forum is “a great resource. That’s where I’ve gained pretty much all of my Tesla knowledge from over the past, you know, 4 to 5 years that I’ve been following the company, and especially that [DaveT megapost] thread in particular is a really efficient way to do it.” Also, still in 2023 Tesla Daily often seems suspiciously similar to a highlights summary of our thread…

As for the other guys, they might be here and just never said so.

 

[khill]

Interesting move! These are the folks most likely to get the next interview w. Elon (and NOT the BBC, or Kara Swisher). A sample from: ELON ALERTS (@elon_alerts) / Twitter

• Elon Musk is now following Engineering Insider ( @EngineeringInsd ) / Twitter
• Elon Musk is now following Gali ( @Gfilche )
• Elon Musk is now following Alex ( @alex_avoigt )
• Elon Musk is now following Dave Lee (@heydave7)
• Elon Musk is now following James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough)
• Elon Musk is now following Rob Maurer ( @TeslaPodcast )
• Elon Musk is now following Sawyer Merritt ( @sawyermerritt )
• Elon Musk is now following Farzad Mesbahi ( @farzyness )

Elon is encouraging influencers to enable 'subscriptions' so they can earn money promoting Tesla doing what they love (and would do full-time for free if they could afford it).

Advertizing? Ducks. Marketing? Drakes!

Drake No/Yes Meme Generator - Imgflip (roll ur own!)​

Cheers to the Influencers!

Elon has enabled subscriptions on his Twitter account as well. One of the perks he mentioned is a subscribers only Twitter Spaces once every few weeks.

 

[Krugerrand]

...is anyone else seeing every conversation they have regarding anything Tesla, Twitter, or SpaceX turning into an argument about what Elon Musk says? double points if its by family and friends?

Nope. Indeed, just stopped by an antique store today in the middle of nowhere with the Tesla - lots of charging questions and one Elon comment; and I quote ‘That Elon fellow sure is something else, isn’t he?’ And let me assure you it was said with wonder and awe.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Rob Maurer — Has not disclosed his account username as far as I know

There is no reason to believe that somebody who gets information from TMC has an account here. I certainly didn't until after I bought my first Tesla. Rob didn't get his Model 3 until last year if I remember right.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla already IS the “Best Value”. The only question we are debating is how many people actually know this.

This is EXACTLY my point! You know it, I know it, we all know it here. But currently, this is not Tesla's brand image, and it is not what Tesla is known for. In the future, I think it's inevitable that they will be known for this. Thanks for really bringing that out!

 

[totoro722]

What Tesla has accomplished is astonishing. There is no debate on that. Below is the data for BMW, and Mercedes over the last few years - they are able to keep their sales volume intact. Can you explain why their sales didn’t collapse despite the Model coming in 2018 and Model Y in 2020? My point is that this is because the people outside of the Tesla Twitter don’t know that a Tesla is far far far superior both in terms of technology as well aa overall value.

We think that, but not everyone does. I run into objections like “Teslas are so ugly”,” I don’t like Elon’s politics”, “I only buy German cars”, “Electric cars SUCK”. These objections are not amenable to education IMO

 

[Gigapress]

There is no reason to believe that somebody who gets information from TMC has an account here. I certainly didn't until after I bought my first Tesla. Rob didn't get his Model 3 until last year if I remember right.

Good point. He might have been lurking (and maybe still is). I lurked longer than I’ve had an account.

 

[Thekiwi]

Those things would certainly reduce cost--but at what price? Doing those things would take away from Tesla's panache and is typical bean-counter thinking. My bet is on finding ways to provide the same functionality but at a lower cost. "If you buy oats, you go to the feed store and buy quality oats. However the oats are much cheaper after they've been through the horse."

Most people aren’t car nerds after the best performance and/or luxury features. When it comes to non-luxury EVs (the massive TAM where the next generation will ultimately be targeting), I would guess for most people the most important factors in order are Price, form factor, brand, range, charging network, reliability/service, cup holders.

I may be completely off of course, but I don’t think most people know the 0-60 time of their car, the top speed, or the efficiency figures.