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Maybe now that Giga Berlin is humming, at the beginning of the quarter Tesla supplies rest of Europe and at the end of the quarter ships to Germany where shipping is quicker? Wouldn´t be a new strategy, but on the other hand not what I´d expect when they seem to be flattening the wave...
Flattening the wave is primarily about controlling costs.

So long as it doesn’t increase costs significantly, I think it’s still fair game. Moving German shipments around a bit doesn’t sound like it would be too expensive. It’s just a matter of where the car haulers are pointed.
 
Flattening the wave is primarily about controlling costs.

So long as it doesn’t increase costs significantly, I think it’s still fair game. Moving German shipments around a bit doesn’t sound like it would be too expensive. It’s just a matter of where the car haulers are pointed.
According to Tesla, flattening the wave is primarily about eliminating shipping capacity bottlenecks. They said it was physically impossible to continue the wave at this scale because there aren’t enough transportation vehicles in the world.
 
Hindsight has shown that in general too much of the 787 was outsourced. This management blunder caused tremendous integration problems and cost billions of dollars and many years of schedule delay.

However, the Boeing 787 Li-ion battery fires were not caused by outsourcing per se, and it would not make sense for Boeing (nor Airbus) to produce their own batteries, because the volume is too low and other companies are better at doing the job. I would even guess that insourcing would have increased the probability of a flawed design, all else being equal, because of Boeing’s lack of expertise in this specialty.

Insufficient qualification of the battery and its production system was partly to blame, given that the NTSB investigation report indicated that the supplier’s verification plan did not have a way to detect the type of defect that resulted in thermal runaway incidents. Boeing’s Supply Quality organization should have caught that.

early 2000s when the development began in earnest. Establishing deeper overseas supplier relationships for the 787 was a strategy to help improve these overall business relationships.

...

I want to bring this point up because we need to be careful about using superficial analogies with other industries, because apparent similarities might be spurious and lead to learning a false lesson. These reasons and many more make Boeing’s make-buy decisions majorly different from Tesla’s.

Also, Tesla is using plenty of suppliers too, including for most of their battery cells. The question is whether vertical integration is applied where it makes sense and how well the company manages the supply chain for the rest.

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I agree with your post. My comment were based on my direct experience from attending the entire NTSB Hearings on the subject in 2013, attending on behalf a customer, I link to a Seattle comment not the entire transcript, there is copius detail publicly available:
My notes from that time showed the following:
- The public blame was focusses on GSYuasa, that made critical quality control and design failures, unknown to the prime contractor, Thales. Boeing knew nothing and ddi not check or exercise any supervision. These facts were discussed in the hearings but were heavily watered down in the reports. The basic errors were similar ones repeated with LG and others who did not monitor cell-level performance or QC. I write this now still astonished that these problems recur.
-A Tesla battery safety person also testified. She outlined the individual cell manufacturing quality control, culminating in every cell being individually tested and matched for pack quality. (FWIW, I was later told by one of the attendees that the Performance versions of Tesla had technically identical packs to non-Performance ones, but that the cells and other comononets of BMS were all more precisely matched. I never had any official confirmation of that.).
-Other Lithium Ion battery problems were presented there including ones with US Navy nuclear submarines. ALL of them involved subcontractors of prime contractors that were not supervised.
-Much of the structure came from the NTSB January 2013 report on the JAL fire (just search to that and you'll have it all)
-As the conference ended I asked a NTSB senior person privately why the NTSB did not recommend following the Tesla process, since that would have identified every bad cell and I implied that perhaps they did not want to offend the US Navy, Boeing and others. I repeat it was private. He told me they could recommend that but it would be rejected due to the dependency of all major users on what he called Prime contractors. he then said the NTSB has every bit of technical expertise they needed and that no 'tech startup' would ever be able to give them advice. No surprise, I was never around there again. My client was happy.

I am definitely not an expert on either cells, batteries, nor chemistry. I have had recurrent situations that have made me familiar with some Boeing issues, and those of several Tier One companies. My lack technical competence is these areas has made me cautious, and often astonished I've been asked to observe such subjects.

My conclusions on each of those efforts have been that the fundamental issues are always reduced to lack of management attention to technical detail, coupled with intense pressure to meet financial targets, so quality control suffers. That has been exacerbated by the political insistence that the FAA was to promote the industry, not regulate it. That makes me convinced that the GM and other problems with BEVs stem from similar lack of attention to core principles, disdain for new successful entrants and complacency.

My final point: It is not possible to have integrity with superficiality.

Following the end of those 2013 NTSB Hearings I was convinced Tesla would grow and thrive, but attract hatred and disdain. The only female there was the Tesla one. Then came Gwynne Shotwell. The bureaucrats from Boing and auto OEM's really never have had a clue.
 
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First of all, just wanted to thank everyone for all the great information here. Been reading this thread since I started investing in TSLA in mid 2019. Just got back from a 2 week Hawaii trip and wanted to share some tidbits of information.

Lots of teslas on Oahu. Showrooms were busy most of the time I visited. Pretty much all of the destination chargers were occupied at the mall.

This was during earnings night and after. Spoke with a few sales guys and got some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it was but wanted to share.

1. Tons of 4680 model Ys in stock. If ordered today, could get in a week or so. LR Model Y still had a few month wait time.
2. Sales guy believed 4680 model Ys did not have any battery degradation. First I heard of it and maybe he's mistaken.
3. Thought Austin was only building 4680 Ys but when I asked "4k a week run rate of just 4680 Ys", he didn't confirm.
4. Believes the CyberTruck first variant will be the tri motor. They are getting training on it in the near future.
5. Asked about the price cuts and he said "Elon wants to crush the competition both EVs and ICE". Also with price cuts, foot traffic and orders are up.
5. Didn't think prices would drop much anymore and it was a great deal now. Probably just sales guy talk.
6. For hawaii specific, young guys first bought tesla but now older people are started to buy them. Need more superchargers since alot of tesla owners live in condos.

Overall, he seemed knowledgeable. I asked about his thoughts on the stock price and he thought it would dip to the low 160s or high 150s and bounce back up.

So my quick theory on 4680 Ys.. Tesla built up the inventory on that variant before officially adding it to the order page. Probably run rate of ~2k/week but demand exceeds that. But just a total guess.

In the meantime, I"ll just HODL and buy the dips.
 
First of all, just wanted to thank everyone for all the great information here. Been reading this thread since I started investing in TSLA in mid 2019. Just got back from a 2 week Hawaii trip and wanted to share some tidbits of information.

Lots of teslas on Oahu. Showrooms were busy most of the time I visited. Pretty much all of the destination chargers were occupied at the mall.

This was during earnings night and after. Spoke with a few sales guys and got some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it was but wanted to share.

1. Tons of 4680 model Ys in stock. If ordered today, could get in a week or so. LR Model Y still had a few month wait time.
2. Sales guy believed 4680 model Ys did not have any battery degradation. First I heard of it and maybe he's mistaken.
3. Thought Austin was only building 4680 Ys but when I asked "4k a week run rate of just 4680 Ys", he didn't confirm.
4. Believes the CyberTruck first variant will be the tri motor. They are getting training on it in the near future.
5. Asked about the price cuts and he said "Elon wants to crush the competition both EVs and ICE". Also with price cuts, foot traffic and orders are up.
5. Didn't think prices would drop much anymore and it was a great deal now. Probably just sales guy talk.
6. For hawaii specific, young guys first bought tesla but now older people are started to buy them. Need more superchargers since alot of tesla owners live in condos.

Overall, he seemed knowledgeable. I asked about his thoughts on the stock price and he thought it would dip to the low 160s or high 150s and bounce back up.

So my quick theory on 4680 Ys.. Tesla built up the inventory on that variant before officially adding it to the order page. Probably run rate of ~2k/week but demand exceeds that. But just a total guess.

In the meantime, I"ll just HODL and buy the dips.
Honestly, showroom guys usually knows even less than us lol
 
First of all, just wanted to thank everyone for all the great information here. Been reading this thread since I started investing in TSLA in mid 2019. Just got back from a 2 week Hawaii trip and wanted to share some tidbits of information.

Lots of teslas on Oahu. Showrooms were busy most of the time I visited. Pretty much all of the destination chargers were occupied at the mall.

This was during earnings night and after. Spoke with a few sales guys and got some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it was but wanted to share.

1. Tons of 4680 model Ys in stock. If ordered today, could get in a week or so. LR Model Y still had a few month wait time.
2. Sales guy believed 4680 model Ys did not have any battery degradation. First I heard of it and maybe he's mistaken.
3. Thought Austin was only building 4680 Ys but when I asked "4k a week run rate of just 4680 Ys", he didn't confirm.
4. Believes the CyberTruck first variant will be the tri motor. They are getting training on it in the near future.
5. Asked about the price cuts and he said "Elon wants to crush the competition both EVs and ICE". Also with price cuts, foot traffic and orders are up.
5. Didn't think prices would drop much anymore and it was a great deal now. Probably just sales guy talk.
6. For hawaii specific, young guys first bought tesla but now older people are started to buy them. Need more superchargers since alot of tesla owners live in condos.

Overall, he seemed knowledgeable. I asked about his thoughts on the stock price and he thought it would dip to the low 160s or high 150s and bounce back up.

So my quick theory on 4680 Ys.. Tesla built up the inventory on that variant before officially adding it to the order page. Probably run rate of ~2k/week but demand exceeds that. But just a total guess.

In the meantime, I"ll just HODL and buy the dips.

I don't think we can trust anything your salesperson says.

Tesla is not producing 4k / week of 4680 Model Y's, they are at like 1-2k.

No degradation? Lolz.

The 4680 ramp progress has sadly been a disaster so far. I am sure they could have increased volume production more at this point by installing more lines, but the unwritten messages is that the yields are simply too low and thus costs are too high at this point to ramp further.

It seems they are hopeful that will progress by the end of this year, but really all we have are vague "yields keep improving" messages from Baglino.
 
Honestly, showroom guys usually knows even less than us lol

MIght be the case, but just wanted to share.

I was at a supercharger in Dallas a little over a year ago (Elon donating Starlinks was a headline) and started to talk to 2 Tesla engineers working. Talked about a bunch of stuff. But the most important thing, one of them said he traveled to work and setup a bunch of Energy storage projects. He said help set it up and the public wouldn't hear about it until a year later.

And guess what? We are hearing about tons of Energy storage projects going live now.

I think Tesla employees have good information and some bs........ but I think some showroom guys definitely have more insight than us for inventory.
 
Maybe now that Giga Berlin is humming, at the beginning of the quarter Tesla supplies rest of Europe and at the end of the quarter ships to Germany where shipping is quicker? Wouldn´t be a new strategy, but on the other hand not what I´d expect when they seem to be flattening the wave...
I'm convinced it is like so, but were just wondering where all the surplus of production goes... Inventory, probably, and Taiwan. I estimate 20k to 22k car produced in April, and they delivered ~14k. Not really worried about demand, just curious of the logistics.
 
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