Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

You are missing one point - once FSD is level 5, it will play out more like this “i’m in the mood of another $5 beer…”
Plus people will need many more bathroom breaks…

I would have totally missed that point had you not pointed it out to me; thank you for that.

 

[amolina]

A cat? Well, that confirms that this AI hype is very premature. SMH.
View attachment 946573

Haha. But it's a fast cheetah

 

[Two-rocks]

Toyota will need to use Nickola's playbook to meet these deadlines...

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668673555834314753

Apparently it is still all about the batteries.

 

[jerry33]

Good point.

When people make the argument that most charging happens at home and hence number of charging stations needed is way less than gas stations, they are not incorrect in the premise. But EVs sit on a charging station for between 30 to 45 minutes, whereas a gas car lingers on a pump for max 10 minutes.

This is not true for trips. Waiting by the car for the tank to fill, then going for a pit stop and purchasing a drink is going to take around 20 minutes, unless you have kids/pets and then it will take longer. Charging a Tesla is 15 to 20 minutes unless you are pulling a trailer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hope we close above 260 today!!

Not trying to put a damper on the party but TSLA is due for a pullback/correction/consolidation at any time now. It's about to run into major resistance.

So expect a lot of chop around here and volatility and that there likely will need to be a big catalyst that cause a breakout above it. Either P/D numbers, earnings, other announcements, etc...take your pick. Macro's also become a headwind in the next couple of months that could cause TSLA to sputter out here and trade in window of something like 215-260.

Good news is that once the 260-270 area is broken in a clear and sustained way, the "technical chart gods" say it'll be a quick slingshot up to 325-350 area before there's another resistance level.

 

[ggies07]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668673555834314753

Apparently it is still all about the batteries.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I wouldn’t underestimate Toyota. Apparently they took a hard and good look at that Y they did a tear down on and they’re taking the lessons at heart.

Of course Tesla is innovating at accelerating speeds so there’s that

I've been on a binge of the Founder's podcast recently. The latest one talks about Toyada and one of the stories mentions how when Toyota wanted to start making cars and didn't know how to make engines, they copied a Chevy engine so precisely for their first vehicle that they used Chevy replacement parts when they needed to repair it.

History may not repeat but it does rhyme.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668673555834314753

Apparently it is still all about the batteries.

Market doesn't seem to care? Is 2024 too long range for anyone? It is about the batteries.

 

[2daMoon]

Not trying to put a damper on the party but TSLA is due for a pullback/correction/consolidation at any time now. It's about to run into major resistance.

So expect a lot of chop around here and volatility and that there likely will need to be a big catalyst that cause a breakout above it. Either P/D numbers, earnings, other announcements, etc...take your pick. Macro's also become a headwind in the next couple of months that could cause TSLA to sputter out here and trade in window of something like 215-260.

Good news is that once the 260-270 area is broken in a clear and sustained way, the "technical chart gods" say it'll be a quick slingshot up to 325-350 area before there's another resistance level.

Um, yeah, despite the good intentions, you put a damper on the party.

But that's okay, we depend upon you to keep Murphy off-balance.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Not trying to put a damper on the party but TSLA is due for a pullback/correction/consolidation at any time now. It's about to run into major resistance.

So expect a lot of chop around here and volatility and that there likely will need to be a big catalyst that cause a breakout above it. Either P/D numbers, earnings, other announcements, etc...take your pick. Macro's also become a headwind in the next couple of months that could cause TSLA to sputter out here and trade in window of something like 215-260.

Good news is that once the 260-270 area is broken in a clear and sustained way, the "technical chart gods" say it'll be a quick slingshot up to 325-350 area before there's another resistance level.

But our super chart 'never wrong' yahoo analysis shows this:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Market doesn't seem to care? Is 2024 too long range for anyone? It is about the batteries.

Market has caught on to Elon 'sandbagging' clues

 

[CorneliusXX]

I would have totally missed that point had you not pointed it out to me; thank you for that.

Are you drunk?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Market doesn't seem to care? Is 2024 too long range for anyone? It is about the batteries.

Strange that this chart correlates after that tweet:

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Strange that this chart correlates after that tweet:

View attachment 946589

Eh if you look at the Nasdaq, similar drop. More macro related imo

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Eh if you look at the Nasdaq, similar drop. More macro related imo

Nasdaq? What is that? I only look at $TSLA

 

[Big Time]

Not trying to put a damper on the party but TSLA is due for a pullback/correction/consolidation at any time now. It's about to run into major resistance.

So expect a lot of chop around here and volatility and that there likely will need to be a big catalyst that cause a breakout above it. Either P/D numbers, earnings, other announcements, etc...take your pick. Macro's also become a headwind in the next couple of months that could cause TSLA to sputter out here and trade in window of something like 215-260.

Good news is that once the 260-270 area is broken in a clear and sustained way, the "technical chart gods" say it'll be a quick slingshot up to 325-350 area before there's another resistance level.

Agreed to a certain extent but I’m asking myself “How did we get here?”:

It’s all macro. This whole tech slump started with the Netflix drop and cascaded through the entire tech sector, with layoffs and earnings in focus.

The fed raising rates did another number on tech, making it harder for businesses to get capital….and even though Tesla seamingly didn’t need it it was dragged down with it.

Coming out of Covid the Shanghai plant 1 year ago closed down for much of Q2, dragging the stock and performance of the company down with it. These Covid shutdowns and china fear over war with Taiwan have hindered the stock and sector.

War in Ukraine another massive macro element effected the entire market.

If JPOW gives the green light and some assurance that the pivot is beginning, I don’t see why Tesla couldn’t hit 300 tmrw due to all of these macro factors have softened, as well as Tesla is EXECUTING!!!

….sooner or later though we are island bound

Good luck everyone!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agreed to a certain extent but I’m asking myself “How did we get here?”:

It’s all macro. This whole tech slump started with the Netflix drop and cascaded through the entire tech sector, with layoffs and earnings in focus.

The fed raising rates did another number on tech, making it harder for businesses to get capital….and even though Tesla seamingly didn’t need it it was dragged down with it.

Coming out of Covid the Shanghai plant 1 year ago closed down for much of Q2, dragging the stock and performance of the company down with it. These Covid shutdowns and china fear over war with Taiwan have hindered the stock and sector.

War in Ukraine another massive macro element effected the entire market.

If JPOW gives the green light and some assurance that the pivot is beginning, I don’t see why Tesla couldn’t hit 300 tmrw due to all of these macro factors have softened, as well as Tesla is EXECUTING!!!

….sooner or later though we are island bound

Good luck everyone!

I agree that macro here is ultimately going to play a major role in TSLA's valuation for the next 6-12 months. Luckily the CPI print came in good and everyone and their mom knows that the next 2-3 months of CPI prints are going to show large drops in YoY CPI numbers. Housing has JUST started it's decline, which will likely be a continuous decline for at least the next 12 months. Rents have started to show material YoY declines and this a time period in which rents are usually their strongest of the year. These two elements alone will lead to lower and lower CPI prints for the next 12 months. The Fed and thus the market might actually come out of this thing in a goldilocks situation. Inflation back down to normal levels (might even see some deflation over the next year) while only a minor recession if we get any recession at all.

TSLA is set up for relatively easy YoY comps for the next 4 straight quarters IF they find a equilibrium in pricing to match their growth expansion and they start to realize reduction in COGS from inflation coming down over the past 6 months. Energy has also grown enough to where it could make material impacts to earnings going forward.

So the elements are all there for TSLA to get back into the mid 300's and possibly challenge the ATH by early next year. I absolutely could see a Nvidia move sometime in the next 6-12 months to ATH.

However, the way the inflation and Fed story is playing out, it's becoming crystal clear that the doomsday scenarios by bears is not going to happen and in fact it's becoming more clear every month that a new bull run is about to start. That is usually right when Wall St generates it's own narratives to "explain" a random 10% correction out of nowhere.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Speaking of potential catalyst that propel TSLA to get back into the 300's

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668662966349078529

Production out of Berlin/Austin could be way higher than estimates by analysts for this quarter.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I agree that macro here is ultimately going to play a major role in TSLA's valuation for the next 6-12 months. Luckily the CPI print came in good and everyone and their mom knows that the next 2-3 months of CPI prints are going to show large drops in YoY CPI numbers. Housing has JUST started it's decline, which will likely be a continuous decline for at least the next 12 months. Rents have stated to show material YoY declines and this a time period in which rents are usually their strongest of the year. These two elements alone will lead to lower and lower CPI prints for the next 12 months. The Fed and thus the market might actually come out of this thing in a goldilocks situation. Inflation back down to normal levels (might even see some deflation over the next year) while only a minor recession if we get any recession at all.

TSLA is set up for relatively easy YoY comps for the next 4 straight quarters IF they find a equilibrium in pricing to match their growth expansion and they start to realize reduction in COGS from inflation coming down over the past 6 months. Energy has also grown enough to where it could make material impacts to earnings going forward.

So the elements are all there for TSLA to get back into the mid 300's and possibly challenge the ATH by early next year. I absolutely could see a Nvidia move sometime in the next 6-12 months to ATH.

However, the way the inflation and Fed story is playing out, it's becoming crystal clear that the doomsday scenarios by bears is not going to happen and in fact it's becoming more clear every month that a new bull run is about to start. That is usually right when Wall St generates it's own narratives to "explain" a random 10% correction out of nowhere.

I think the wild card here is the glut of commercial RE loans that their rates are set to 'reset'. That could throw a wrench in things.